房地产周报 20240812:新房销售降 幅收窄，深圳启动收购商品房用作 保障房 2024 年 8 月 12 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 近 5 个交易日 A 股地产板块表现强于大盘、H 股地产板块表现强于大盘。 A 股房地产指数(801180.SL)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为 3.26%，中证 A 股指数 (930903.CSI)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为-1.70%。A 股房地产板块近 5 个交易日 累计涨幅最高的 5 家公司为世联行(34.0%)、城建发展(18.3%)、金地集团 (15.1%)、莱茵体育(14.9%)、特发服务(14.4%)。 H 股恒生地产及物业管理指数(HSPDM.HK)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为 3.77%， H 股恒生指数(HSI.HK)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为 0.85%。H 股房地产板块近 5 个交易日累计涨幅最高的 5 家公司为珠光控股(27.4%)、九龙仓置业(17.5%)、 太古地产(15.6%)、四海国际(12.1%)、新城发展(11.9%)。 8/1~8/11，新房销售降幅收窄，二手房成交保持增长。 29 城商品房年内累计销售面积(1/1~8/10)同比增 ...

传媒互联网&通信行业: 通宇卫星预 计年底投入运营，奥飞数据认购 业投资基 2024 年 8 月 12 日 看好/维持 通信行业报告 周现点: 2024-2030 年期间，估升移改并未劳卫星互联网的建设法期，失现快 进发展，或将成为全球移动通往倾城一颗井井新至。主委理由：公司 在卫星互联网领域具备独特的先发优势。公司在 ITU-R、3GPP、 IMT-2020（5G） 接进组、CCSA 等国内外标准化组织担任重委职务， 全面参与 3GPP 的 5G 系统标准化制定工作，为全球 5G 标准及共演进 微出查委贡献，在 ETSI 拔露的全球 5G 标准必要专利教堂上排名亲人， 特別查委的是，公司在 5G 非地面网络专利装數量上排名上升至第五 径。可以看到，公司在移动通信领域具有较高的自主创新能力。 共次，公司在卫星互联网领境的部分产品种技术已经实现上至验证。 2023 年 11 月，中国信通院联合中国卫通和信科移动完成基于中至 26 高通臺卫星的 5G NTN 途明转发场景端到端在轨试验。在本次试验中, 信科移动研制了 5G NTN 全泰设备样机，包括终端、地面基站、圣地 一体化轻蔓型核心网等产品。试验和步验证了高 ...

传媒互联网&通信行业：通宇卫星预 计年底投入运营，奥飞数据认购产 业投资基金 2024 年 8 月 12 日 看好/维持 通信 行业报告 周观点： 2024-2030 年期间，信科移动将乘势卫星互联网的建设浪潮，实现快 速发展，或将成为全球移动通信领域一颗冉冉新星。主要理由：公司 在卫星互联网领域具备独特的先发优势。公司在 ITU-R、3GPP、 IMT-2020（5G）推进组、CCSA 等国内外标准化组织担任重要职务， 全面参与 3GPP 的 5G 系统标准化制定工作，为全球 5G 标准及其演进 做出重要贡献，在 ETSI 披露的全球 5G 标准必要专利数量上排名第八， 特别重要的是，公司在 5G 非地面网络专利族数量上排名上升至第五 位。可以看到，公司在移动通信领域具有较高的自主创新能力。 其次，公司在卫星互联网领域的部分产品和技术已经实现上星验证。 2023 年 11 月，中国信通院联合中国卫通和信科移动完成基于中星 26 高通量卫星的 5G NTN 透明转发场景端到端在轨试验。在本次试验中， 信科移动研制了 5G NTN 全套设备样机，包括终端、地面基站、星地 一体化轻量型核心网等产品。试验初步验证了 ...

Group 1: Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a fundamental improvement, with supply-demand dynamics showing signs of marginal recovery after a period of oversupply [2] - Domestic companies have strong advantages over competitors from Japan and South Korea in terms of cost, technology, and production experience, which is crucial for profitability [2] - The focus on overseas markets is seen as a key breakthrough for domestic companies to escape intense competition, with companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and CATL positioned to benefit from this trend [2] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector has experienced a decline in asset prices due to slow recovery in demand, particularly affecting the liquor segment [3] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) has dropped from approximately 53x at the end of 2020 to a current low of 21x, indicating potential value [3] - The performance of liquor prices, such as Moutai, is expected to rebound with the overall recovery of commodity prices, supported by changes in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - In Q2 2024, the total market value of fund holdings in the real estate sector decreased by 4.86%, indicating a continued low allocation to real estate stocks [8] - The top three companies by market value in real estate holdings are Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Vanke A, with significant reductions in their respective holdings [8] - The market for new homes is expected to improve as supply optimizes and pent-up demand is released, particularly in core cities [9] Group 4: Telecommunications Sector - Xinke Mobile is positioned to capitalize on the satellite internet wave from 2024 to 2030, leveraging its unique advantages in the satellite internet field [10] - The company has made significant contributions to global 5G standardization and ranks high in essential patent numbers, indicating strong innovation capabilities [10] - Xinke Mobile's products have already undergone successful satellite verification, positioning the company well for future growth in the satellite internet market [10]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴电力设备及新能源】2024 年锂电板块中期策略：基本面有望迎来改善， 关注出海与固态电池应用进程（20240805） 展望全年，当前板块核心问题仍在于供给过剩，短期内基本面仍处于筑底阶 段，经过供不应求-产能扩张-供过于求等阶段的演绎，叠加再融资政策收紧 资金端压力进一步提升，目前行业尾部出清阶段持续，我们认为板块供需格 局有望迎来边际改善，盈利能力弹性或将有所提升，板块基本面有望迎来拐 点，我们看好业绩见底企稳后回归的机遇。 1、电池环节：动力电池出海提速：我们认为出海依旧是行业发展主旋律，中 国企业相较日韩竞争对手在成本、技术及生产经验等维度具有较强优势，盈 利能力表现更稳健，目前政策端业务拓展限制整体可控，基于我国锂电产业 链完备发展布局与先发优势，全球市占率长期有望延续提升趋势，从企业盈 利角度，海外市场超额收益为破局内卷的关键突破口，海外布局具有先发优 势的龙头企业有望重归利润增长通道。建议关注欧美已有产能投产、美国本 土电池材料/电芯产能建成在即的国轩高科，同时全球龙头地位稳固、欧美市 场布局领先的宁德时代，以及联合三大商用车巨头切入北美新能源商用 ...

Group 1: Electronic Industry Insights - In H1 2024, 聚灿光电 (300708.SZ) achieved a revenue of 1.334 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.24%[1] - The company's gross margin increased to 14.60%, up by 4.67 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - Net profit for H1 2024 reached 113 million CNY, a significant year-on-year increase of 351.03%[1] Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - The global LED market is projected to reach a value of 13 billion USD in 2024, indicating a recovery in the LED industry[3] - High-end LED chips are now at the forefront of domestic production, with significant advancements in product performance and stability[3] - EPS forecasts for the company are 0.32 CNY, 0.40 CNY, and 0.52 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, maintaining a "recommended" rating[3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - As of July 1, 2024, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 10.52% and 12.34% month-on-month, settling at 86.60 USD/barrel and 83.38 USD/barrel respectively[4] - OPEC's crude oil production rose to 26,629 thousand barrels per day, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.11%[4] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories increased by 2.19% month-on-month, indicating a rise in supply[5] Group 4: Aluminum Industry Overview - Global bauxite reserves are estimated at 550-750 billion tons, with known reserves around 300 billion tons, sufficient for 75 years of demand[7] - The top three bauxite producing countries (Australia, Guinea, and China) account for over 72% of global production, highlighting a monopolistic supply structure[8] - The average price of bauxite has increased by 30.8% from Q3 2020 to Q1 2024, correlating with a rise in public fund allocations to the aluminum sector[9]

Group 1: Electronic Industry - The company, 聚灿光电 (300708.SZ), reported a revenue growth of 11.24% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, with a gross margin of 14.60%, an increase of 4.67 percentage points [2] - The net profit for the first half of 2024 reached 113 million yuan, a significant increase of 351.03% year-on-year, driven by precise market demand understanding and high-end product performance improvements [2] - The company has increased its production capacity and efficiency, leading to a rise in both revenue and gross margin, with cash flow from operating activities increasing by 44.92% year-on-year [2] Group 2: LED Chip Market - The high-end LED chip products have reached a leading level domestically, with expectations for a new chapter of high-quality development in the industry [5] - The global LED market value is projected to reach 13 billion USD in 2024, with a clear trend towards high-end product demand [5] - The company is expected to see continuous growth in performance due to the stable progress of fundraising projects and the anticipated expansion of the Mini LED market [5] Group 3: Energy Industry - As of July 1, 2024, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 10.52% and 12.34% month-on-month, respectively, indicating a continued upward trend in oil prices [6] - OPEC's crude oil production rose to 26,629 thousand barrels per day, reflecting a slight increase of 0.11% month-on-month [6] - The overall oil and petroleum product inventory in the U.S. increased by 2.19% month-on-month, indicating a rise in supply [6] Group 4: Communication Industry - The domestic satellite internet sector is entering an industrialization phase, with satellite manufacturing core component suppliers expected to benefit significantly [7] - The demand for optical modules and IDC is projected to maintain a rapid growth trend driven by AI large models [7] - The satellite internet low-orbit communication satellite structure includes high-value components such as power systems and phased array antennas, which are expected to see increased procurement demand [7] Group 5: Machinery Industry - The specialized equipment sector, including laser, lithium battery, semiconductor, and photovoltaic processing equipment, is expected to benefit from the appreciation of the RMB [8] - Historical data shows that during periods of RMB appreciation, these sectors have experienced significant price increases and profit growth [8] - The current valuation levels of these sectors are at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery if the RMB continues to appreciate [8] Group 6: Aluminum Industry - The global bauxite market is characterized by a highly concentrated supply structure, with the top three producing countries accounting for over 72% of global output [10] - Bauxite is essential for producing alumina, and its supply is expected to remain stable for the next 75 years based on current reserves [10] - The pricing of bauxite has been on an upward trend since 2020, positively impacting the allocation effectiveness of the aluminum industry [11] Group 7: Banking Industry - The central bank is expected to maintain a prudent monetary policy with a focus on promoting consumption and supporting the real economy [12] - The banking sector's performance growth is anticipated to be slow in the short term due to a combination of factors including interest rate declines and reduced loan demand [12] - Long-term investment value in the banking sector is highlighted, particularly for high-dividend stocks amid a recovering economy [12] Group 8: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The effects of various favorable policies are expected to gradually manifest, particularly in the real estate sector [14] - The positive sentiment in both domestic and international capital markets is likely to enhance investor risk appetite [14] - The focus on policy changes and macroeconomic recovery is expected to drive the valuation recovery of the non-banking financial sector [14] Group 9: Construction and Building Materials Industry - The construction and building materials sector is facing challenges due to weak demand driven by real estate market pressures [15] - Recent data indicates a decline in prices for key materials such as cement and glass, reflecting ongoing industry weakness [16] - Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to support a gradual recovery in demand for building materials [16]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, with toll revenue at 1.79 billion yuan, down 5.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 314 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 26.5% compared to the previous year [1] - Various factors contributed to the underperformance, including extreme weather conditions and traffic diversion due to road network changes [1][2] Revenue Analysis - The toll revenue decline was attributed to severe weather impacting central provinces and increased free holiday days, which negatively affected income [1] - The core asset, Guangzhou North Second Ring, saw a 7.4% decrease in revenue due to traffic diversion from the opening of a new highway [1] Cost and Profitability - Operating costs rose to 903 million yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 10.1% rise in operating rights amortization [1] - Maintenance expenses surged by 39% due to weather-related costs, leading to a notable drop in gross margin by 6.5 percentage points to 50.1% [1] Investment Income - Investment income fell to 76 million yuan from 130 million yuan in the previous year, mainly due to the Guangzhou North Ring Expressway ceasing toll collection [1] - The project is still incurring operational and maintenance costs, resulting in losses that impacted overall investment returns [1] Financial Performance - Financial expenses decreased by 12.2% to 249 million yuan, benefiting from optimized debt structure and lower market interest rates [1] - The actual profit from total external borrowings decreased from 3.24% at the end of the previous year to 2.92% [1] Future Outlook - The second half of 2024 is expected to see improved performance compared to the first half, driven by favorable road network changes [2] - The company anticipates a net profit of 740 million yuan for 2024, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.44 yuan [2]

房地产基金重仓持仓 2024Q2：地产 股重仓持仓继续降低，基金持续低 配地产股 2024 年 8 月 8 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 2024Q2 地产板块持仓： 2024Q2，基金重仓持股总市值为 26446.4 亿元，持仓市值较上季度减少 2.15%；其中地产股重仓持仓市值较上季度减少 4.86%。 2024Q2，31 个行业板块中，地产板块持仓市值及占比分别为 244.2 亿元和 0.9%，在 31 个板块中排名第 22；持仓占比较上季度减少 0.03%，在 31 个板 块中排名第 18；持仓市值较上季度减少 4.86%，在 31 个板块中排名第 20。 2024Q2，基金重仓持有的 A 股总市值为 24078.4 亿元，其中 A 股地产股重仓 持仓市值为 187.1 亿元，A 股地产股重仓持仓占比为 0.8%；A 股地产股重仓 持仓占比与申万房地产板块流通市值占比之差为-0.60%,上季度为-0.65%。 2024Q2 地产股持仓： 2024Q2，地产股票中，重仓持仓市值最大的三家公司为保利发展、招商蛇口、 万科 A；持仓市值分别为 71.9 亿元、36.9 亿元、18.3 亿元；重仓持仓市值 ...

信科移动（688387.SH）：乘势卫星 互联网浪潮，全球移动通信冉冉新 星 2024 年 8 月 8 日 推荐/首次 信科移动 公司报告 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024-2030 年期间，信科移动将乘势卫星互联网的建设浪潮，实现快 速发展，或将成为全球移动通信领域一颗冉冉新星。主要理由：公司 在卫星互联网领域具备独特的先发优势。公司在 ITU-R、3GPP、 IMT-2020（5G）推进组、CCSA 等国内外标准化组织担任重要职务， 全面参与 3GPP 的 5G 系统标准化制定工作，为全球 5G 标准及其演进 做出重要贡献，在 ETSI 披露的全球 5G 标准必要专利数量上排名第八， 特别重要的是，公司在 5G 非地面网络专利族数量上排名上升至第五 位。可以看到，公司在移动通信领域具有较高的自主创新能力。 其次，公司在卫星互联网领域的部分产品和技术已经实现上星验证。 2023 年 11 月，中国信通院联合中国卫通和信科移动完成基于中星 26 高通量卫星的 5G NTN 透明转发场景端到端在轨试验。在本次试验中， 信科移动研制了 5G NTN 全套设备样机，包括终端、 ...