Group 1 - The report indicates that external risks, particularly related to trade tariffs, are expected to have limited impact on the market, while internal macro policy expectations are gradually rising as the "Two Sessions" approach [6][26][25] - Economic fundamentals show marginal changes, with a focus on upcoming Spring Festival consumption data and local government efforts to promote the "opening red" situation [7][29] - The report highlights that the market is transitioning from a defensive stance to actively seeking opportunities, particularly in high-growth technology sectors and seasonal infrastructure advantages [8][52] Group 2 - The first main line of opportunity is in high-elasticity growth technology sectors, including TMT and military industries, which are expected to benefit from clearer policies and a rebound in market sentiment [8][56] - The second main line focuses on infrastructure sectors that typically exhibit strong seasonal effects, with a particular emphasis on eight high-probability areas such as engineering consulting and environmental equipment [10][53] - The third main line emphasizes undervalued banking and insurance sectors, which are expected to show strong performance supported by robust earnings forecasts and favorable long-term investment policies [10][55]

Group 1 - External risk mitigation is expected to positively boost market preferences, with optimism for the post-Spring Festival market [2][11] - The announcement by Trump to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico indicates potential easing of external risks, which may uplift market sentiment [2][12] - Domestic consumption data during the Spring Festival did not show significant improvement, aligning with market expectations [3][14] Group 2 - High elasticity growth sectors and strong seasonal infrastructure opportunities are timely, with a focus on TMT, military, and robotics [4][29] - The report identifies eight key sectors with strong seasonal effects in infrastructure, including engineering consulting services, environmental equipment, and cement [7][25] - The DeepSeek phenomenon is expected to enhance investment opportunities in the AI sector, with significant cost savings and performance advantages [5][16][22] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "Two Sessions" policy expectations and major catalytic events like DeepSeek and the Spring Festival Gala robot [4][29] - The banking and insurance sectors are highlighted for their low valuations and strong performance forecasts, making them attractive for investment [30][31]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [2] Core Insights - DeepSeek has achieved breakthroughs in both AI model performance and cost, which is expected to accelerate the domestic AI progress [3][4] - The latest AI model DeepSeek-R1 has shown excellent performance in various benchmark tests, particularly in mathematical reasoning and programming tasks, scoring 79.8% in the AIME 2024 math benchmark, slightly higher than OpenAI's o1 model at 79.2%, and 97.3% in the MATH-500 benchmark, outperforming o1's 96.4% [3][4] - DeepSeek has also released the multimodal open-source model Janus-Pro, which outperformed Stable Diffusion and OpenAI's DALL-E 3 in GenEval and DPG-Bench benchmarks [3] - The report highlights the innovative training process and new algorithm applications that DeepSeek has utilized to achieve these advancements [4] Summary by Sections AI Model Performance - DeepSeek-R1's performance is comparable to leading models, indicating significant advancements in AI capabilities [3][4] - The introduction of DeepSeek-V3 showcases a combination of efficient architecture and innovative technologies, including MoE architecture and FP8 mixed-precision training [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing decline in unit costs for generative AI will accelerate technology expansion and increase application scenarios [5] - Key companies to watch include Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, Baidu Group-SW, and Kingsoft Cloud, as they are expected to benefit from increased demand for cloud infrastructure due to AI adoption [5] - The report also recommends monitoring companies involved in edge AI and SaaS applications, such as Xiaomi Group-W and Kingsoft Office, as they are crucial for AI implementation [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - In 2024, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 277GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 28%. The price of the industry chain remains stable, and by the end of 2024, the inventory of silicon wafers and battery cells is expected to be nearly depleted. The market's response to actual price increases will be more sensitive, while reactions to policy details may be dulled [3][11] - For wind power, the domestic installed capacity in 2024 is projected to be 79GW, a year-on-year increase of 5%. December alone saw an addition of 27.6GW, a month-on-month increase of 364%. The commencement of offshore wind projects has exceeded expectations, boosting market sentiment [3][24] - In the energy storage sector, new installations of 42.37GW/101.13GWh are anticipated in 2024. The large-scale storage market is rapidly developing, with traditional markets expanding and emerging markets rising, indicating potential benefits for the industry chain [3][29] - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing strong growth, with multiple regions actively laying out plans. Investment in hydrogen energy is expected to enter a window period, with a focus on hydrogen production and storage [3][31] - The humanoid robot sector is seeing significant advancements, with companies like Yushu Technology and Kuawei Intelligence making progress. The humanoid robot is considered one of the most important applications of AI technology, with a promising outlook [3][32] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic - In 2024, the total new installed capacity is projected at 277GW, up 28% year-on-year [3][8] - The industry chain prices are stable, and inventory levels are expected to normalize by the end of 2024 [3][14] - The market is expected to respond sensitively to price increases and policy details [3][23] Wind Power - The domestic wind power installed capacity for 2024 is expected to be 79GW, a 5% increase year-on-year [3][24] - December 2024 saw a significant increase in new installations, with 27.6GW added [3][24] - The market is optimistic about offshore wind projects, which are expected to drive growth [3][25] Energy Storage - New energy storage installations are expected to reach 42.37GW/101.13GWh in 2024 [3][29] - The market is rapidly developing, with significant growth in both traditional and emerging sectors [3][29] Hydrogen Energy - The hydrogen energy sector is witnessing robust development, with various regions actively investing [3][31] - Focus areas include hydrogen production and storage, which are expected to see increased investment [3][31] Humanoid Robots - Significant advancements in humanoid robots are being made by companies like Yushu Technology and Kuawei Intelligence [3][32] - The sector is viewed as a key application of AI technology with a broad future potential [3][32] Electric Grid Equipment - The total investment in electric grid projects for 2024 is projected at 608.3 billion yuan, a 15.3% increase year-on-year [3][41] - The overall electricity consumption is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2024, with significant contributions from various sectors [3][41] New Technologies - Multiple regions are actively planning for low-altitude development, integrating air, land, and sea [3][45] - Policies are being implemented to support the growth of low-altitude economies, enhancing regional economic competitiveness [3][45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the development of high-level intelligent driving functions is being driven by policies, with the intelligent driving and intelligent networking sectors entering a phase of resonance [3][27] - The competition in the intelligent driving sector is intensifying, with domestic automakers striving to capture market share by launching basic versions of intelligent driving without lidar, targeting the lower price segments [4] - The report emphasizes that the sales and operational competitiveness of automakers are increasingly linked to their intelligent driving capabilities, with Tesla expected to enter the European and Chinese markets with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology [5] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Promotion of High-Level Intelligent Driving Functions - The intelligentization index has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with a notable increase in high-end models and new energy vehicles [18] - The networking index has also seen steady improvement, with the latest figures indicating a historical high [19] - The definitions of intelligentization and networking have been adjusted, making it more challenging for high-sales models to meet the criteria for intelligentization [22] 2. Rapid Popularization of Intelligent Driving - Domestic automakers are actively pursuing market share in the intelligent driving sector, with significant advancements in sensor suite solutions [4] - The report notes that the penetration rate of advanced parking assistance (APA) features is expected to reach 20.6% in Q1-Q3 of 2024, while high-level automated parking features remain under 2% [4] - The report suggests that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the widespread adoption of basic intelligent driving experiences, with a focus on market recognition of intelligent driving labels [7] 3. Intelligent Driving Functions: Market Competitiveness of Automakers - Tesla's global sales are projected to reach approximately 1.79 million units in 2024, with China becoming its largest market [5] - Domestic automakers are making significant strides in technology development, with companies like Xiaopeng and NIO launching new models and technologies [5] - The report highlights the importance of intelligent driving features in enhancing the sales performance of various models [5] 4. Intelligent Driving Driving Core Component Penetration - The report anticipates a significant increase in lidar deliveries, with an expected total of 1.5 million units for the year [6] - The installation of millimeter-wave radar is also on the rise, with a year-on-year increase of 11.5% expected in H1 2024 [6] - The market for vehicle-mounted cameras is expanding, with a projected installation volume of 64.21 million units in Q1-Q3 of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.6% [6] 5. Related Component Companies in the Intelligent Driving Sector - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in the supply of intelligent driving components, such as SUTENG, Hesai Technology, and Desay SV [7]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that risks remain after Trump's inauguration, with a focus on domestic and international policy directions [2][19][20] - The report suggests a cautious investment strategy, with a preference for U.S. stocks and expectations for domestic commodity prices to be boosted [4][45] - The analysis highlights that the economic fundamentals show marginal changes, with attention on the upcoming Spring Festival consumption data [14][18] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "Two Sessions" and the potential for macro policy expectations to improve market sentiment [29][104] - It notes that the financial sector is expected to benefit from a potential loosening of domestic liquidity post-holiday [4][29] - The analysis indicates that the consumer sector is under pressure, with high-frequency data showing no significant improvement in internal consumption dynamics [4][18] Group 3 - The report discusses the anticipated stability in bond yields, with short-term interest rates expected to remain unchanged in the near term [53][58] - It highlights that the U.S. Treasury yields are likely to experience upward pressure, particularly on long-term bonds, due to economic resilience [70][71] - The analysis suggests that the market is awaiting new policy signals from the Federal Reserve, with a focus on the implications for interest rates [70][72] Group 4 - The report indicates that commodity prices are under pressure due to concerns over Trump's potential trade policies and the Fed's hawkish stance [86][91] - It notes that while oil prices may remain under pressure, there is a medium to long-term bullish outlook for gold due to geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [100][101] - The analysis suggests that domestic commodities may see price support from proactive local government policies and infrastructure investments [104][106] Group 5 - The report highlights the potential for the U.S. dollar to weaken following Trump's relatively moderate inauguration speech [131] - It discusses the implications of the U.S.-China monetary policy divergence on the Chinese yuan, with expectations for a rebound before any potential rate cuts [135][136] - The analysis indicates that the trade balance and foreign exchange reserves are under scrutiny, with recent trends showing continued outflows [136][137]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Yisheng Co., Ltd. (002458) [1][8] Core Viewpoints - Yisheng Co., Ltd. is the largest breeding enterprise for white feather broiler parent stock in China, holding approximately one-third of the imported white feather broiler market share. The company has been a leader in the breeding of broiler chicks for nearly 20 years and is expected to benefit from the rising prices of broiler chicks [4][7][75] - The company has a strong focus on the chicken breeding industry and is expanding its pig breeding business, with the release of breeding pig capacity expected in 2024 [4][6][7] - The white feather broiler chick business has been the main source of revenue and profit for the company, accounting for 79%-93% of total revenue from 2015 to 2023, with a gross profit of 3.6 billion yuan from this segment in the first half of 2024 [4][16] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1989, Yisheng Co., Ltd. specializes in the breeding and supply of high-generation livestock and poultry breeds, including broiler chicks and breeding pigs. The company has maintained its position as the largest breeding enterprise for white feather broiler parent stock in China [4][14] Chicken Business Expansion - The company has seen a steady increase in the sales of parent and commercial broiler chicks, with sales rising from 373 million to 586 million from 2019 to 2024. The sales of the 909 small white feather broiler chicks also increased from 76.44 million to 82.99 million during the same period [5][60] - The price of parent and commercial broiler chicks has been rising, driven by factors such as low import volumes and increased demand for white feather chicken products [5][42][56] Pig Breeding Business - Yisheng Co., Ltd. has over 20 years of experience in breeding pigs, with sales increasing from 0.2 million heads in 2021 to 3 million heads in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 145.5% [6][66] - The company plans to sell 150,000 breeding pigs in 2025, with a target of reaching 200,000 heads at full capacity [6][66] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve main business revenues of 3.26 billion yuan, 5.06 billion yuan, and 5.5 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 559 million yuan, 1.38 billion yuan, and 1.44 billion yuan [7][75]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant investment of $500 billion by SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle in the "Stargate" project aimed at building AI infrastructure in the US, marking it as the largest AI infrastructure investment in history [3][4] - OpenAI has released the AI Agent—Operator, which can automate tasks without relying on APIs, showcasing advancements in AI capabilities [3][4] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the AI industry, with continued financial support and a positive outlook for 2025 [4] Market Performance Review - From January 20 to January 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.64%. The CSI 300 Index rose by 0.54%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 3.98% [2][25] - The AI Index saw a weekly increase of 5.72%, indicating strong performance in the AI sector [2][25] AI Developments - OpenAI is expected to release a more intelligent GPT-3 model in February or March 2025, enhancing its capabilities [3][4] - Domestic AI advancements include the launch of the Doubao 1.5 Pro model, which surpasses the performance of industry standards like GPT-4o [8][45] - The Kimi model from Moonlight has achieved state-of-the-art performance in multimodal reasoning, significantly outperforming global benchmarks [8][45] AI Hardware and Collaborations - Samsung is collaborating with Google to enter the augmented reality glasses market, indicating a trend towards integrating AI with hardware [9] - The report notes the ongoing competition between US and Chinese AI companies, with a focus on leading firms in niche markets [3][4] Company Announcements - Various companies have announced their AI application progress, including significant advancements in AI models and their integration into existing products [48][49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shenghong Technology is "Buy" [2][11] Core Viewpoints - Shenghong Technology is a high-end PCB core supplier, with its server PCB business opening a second growth curve for the company. The company is focusing on niche growth markets such as AI computing, high-end servers, and new energy vehicles to counteract the weak demand in consumer electronics since 2023 [5][6] - The PCB industry is showing signs of recovery, with the server application segment experiencing the fastest growth. The overall market size for server and data storage PCBs is expected to grow from USD 9.781 billion in 2024 to USD 14.221 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 11.6% from 2023 to 2028 [7][50] - The demand for AI chips is strong, driving the need for PCB upgrades as server products must keep pace with the generational changes in server chips [8][73] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shenghong Technology has become a leading PCB core supplier over the past two decades, with a wide range of applications in sectors such as new energy, automotive electronics, and AI [22][23] - The company has a strong technical foundation, with over 1,000 R&D personnel and more than 290 patents in the PCB field [23][36] - The company has achieved stable revenue growth, with operating income increasing from CNY 2.442 billion in 2017 to CNY 7.931 billion in 2023 [39] Market Trends - The PCB industry is experiencing a recovery, with inventory levels improving and demand gradually returning. The global PCB market is projected to reach USD 73.026 billion in 2024, with China accounting for over 50% of the market share [42][44] - The automotive PCB market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing penetration of electric vehicles, with the market value projected to reach USD 14.5 billion by 2026 [78][79] AI and Server Demand - The demand for AI servers is rapidly increasing, with the Chinese market expected to reach USD 12.4 billion by 2028. The growth is driven by the need for high-performance computing and AI applications [61][62] - Shenghong Technology is actively participating in the innovation and development of server and AI computing applications, achieving significant breakthroughs in high-layer HDI products [53][54] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of CNY 111.45 billion, CNY 146.12 billion, and CNY 165.06 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 11.68 billion, CNY 15.51 billion, and CNY 18.60 billion [11][106]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve an annual revenue of approximately 14.2 billion, with profits likely at the upper limit of the forecast at 1.1 billion, both in line with expectations [7] - For Q4, revenue is projected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit growth of 19%, maintaining a non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.4% year-on-year [8] - The company anticipates a significant contribution from new product launches and store expansions in 2025, with improved profitability from lawnmowers in Q4 and a stable performance from scooters [9] Revenue Analysis - The company expects to complete a target of 2.5 million units for two-wheeled vehicles in 2024, with approximately 400,000 units in Q4 [11] - The all-terrain vehicle segment is projected to reach 1 billion in revenue for the year, with Q4 revenue around 250 million, and is expected to break even [11] - The lawnmower segment is expected to generate about 100 million in revenue for Q4, showing a slight improvement in profitability compared to Q3 [11] Profitability Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 14.2 billion, 17.9 billion, and 21.4 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39%, 26%, and 20% [9] - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.1 billion, 1.6 billion, and 2.3 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 85%, 45%, and 43% [9] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 26.9% in 2023 to 32.1% by 2026 [12] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 11.0% in 2023 to 22.2% in 2026 [12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 35.44 in 2023 to 16.62 by 2026 [12]