行业季度投资策略 ⚫ 固态电池：性能优势凸显，产业化拐点将至 ⚫ 快充：新能源车需求景气，快充企业机遇来临 ⚫ 风险提示 1.储能盈利机制改善，N 型硅片涨价 落地 2024-12-16 2.特斯拉发布机器人进展，光伏供给 侧政策交易钝化 2024-12-10 3.欧盟电车进口关税或解决，光伏出 台制造规范 2024-11-27 | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------| | | 1.固态电池: 性能优势凸显, 产业化挤点持至… | | 1.1 | 顺应国家发展要求,相关技术持续突破 | | 1.2 | 24Q3 业绩承压, 营收降幅明显 | | 1.3 | 营运效率整体提升,企业表现各异 | | | 2 低空经济: 魂中有进, 企业业绩逐渐释放 | | 2.1 | 高质量发展方案学画低空经济蓝图,推动低空飞行器全产业链升级… | | 2.2 | 营收保持稳定,应用场景不断拓宽 | | 2.3 | 存货周转速度提高，资金回笼速度减缓 | | | ３ 快充：新能源丰需求录气，快充企业执递 ...

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Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific segments such as light hydrocarbon chemicals and COC polymers [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating industrialization of COC/COP (Cyclic Olefin Copolymer) in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the shift of downstream industries towards domestic supply chains [33]. - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is identified as a global transformation in the olefin industry, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter feedstocks like ethane and propane, which is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [40]. - The report notes significant price increases in various chemical products, with methanol rising by 157.08% and yellow phosphorus by 148.31%, indicating strong market dynamics [35]. Summary by Sections Oil Services - Domestic crude oil apparent consumption is projected at 150 million tons, with fixed asset investment in the oil and gas extraction industry showing cumulative growth [2]. Polyurethane - The report includes price trends for TDI and epoxy propane, indicating fluctuations in the market that could impact profitability for companies in this sector [5][11]. Chemical Prices - The report tracks price movements for various chemicals, including a notable increase in refrigerants and PTA, which could signal opportunities for investment in these areas [42][13]. Market Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance shows a decline of 1.29% in the recent week, with specific segments like refining and coal chemicals performing better than others [51][53]. Company Performance - The report lists top-performing companies in the chemical sector, with notable gains for Huaxi Co. and Jihua Group, while highlighting significant losses for companies like Jinpu Titanium [55][56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a single product operation to a comprehensive home furnishing model, leveraging its strong brand power, organizational capabilities, R&D design strength, channel strength, and product strength to create a robust competitive moat [1][26]. - Despite facing severe challenges in both domestic and international markets, the company's performance has shown stable growth, with revenue increasing from 2.682 billion to 19.212 billion yuan from 2013 to 2023, representing a CAGR of 21.76% [1][63]. - The company has implemented a "1+N+X" development strategy to enhance retail transformation and channel organization, which has improved management efficiency and decision-making flexibility [1][26]. Summary by Sections Overview - The company is recognized globally for providing integrated home solutions and is evolving from a single product focus to a full-category home furnishing approach [1][26]. - The company has experienced significant growth in revenue and net profit over the past decade, with a notable increase in brand recognition and market presence [1][63]. Product Categories - The company has diversified its product offerings, focusing on sofas as the core category while expanding into mattresses and customized products, which are expected to drive future growth [1][26]. - The sofa segment has a wide price range, contributing significantly to revenue, while the customized furniture segment is rapidly expanding [1][64]. Channels - The "1+N+X" channel strategy is being executed to create a multi-category integrated store model, enhancing retail capabilities and improving the overall customer experience [1][26]. - The company is also transforming its retail centers and organizational structure to empower distributors and enhance channel vitality [1][26]. Globalization - The company has established a comprehensive production base layout, enhancing its global market presence and supply chain efficiency [1][26]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 18.964 billion, 20.465 billion, and 21.872 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.878 billion, 2.057 billion, and 2.241 billion yuan [1][30]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with a focus on expanding its product matrix and enhancing channel strategies [1][30].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a first-time coverage [16] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of civil electrical products, with a strong presence in the electrical connection, smart electrical lighting, and new energy sectors [16] - The company has expanded its business from converters and wall switches to a comprehensive ecosystem, including digital accessories, LED lighting, and new energy charging piles [16] - The company's revenue grew from 5.366 billion yuan in 2016 to 15.695 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 14.36%, and net profit attributable to the parent company grew from 1.407 billion yuan to 3.870 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.48% [16] - The company's new energy business, including charging piles and energy storage, is expected to drive medium- to long-term growth [16] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 170.77 billion yuan, 186.74 billion yuan, and 203.25 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.8%, 9.4%, and 8.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 4.306 billion yuan, 4.774 billion yuan, and 5.276 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.3%, 10.9%, and 10.5% [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 43.2%-43.5% from 2024E to 2026E [3] - ROE is projected to increase from 27.6% in 2024E to 28.5% in 2026E [3] Business Segments Electrical Connection - The electrical connection segment, including converters and digital accessories, is the company's core business, contributing 47.14% of total revenue in 2023 [16] - Revenue from the electrical connection segment grew from 5.124 billion yuan in 2018 to 7.387 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.59% [16] - The company has introduced innovative products such as track sockets and Z-generation series sockets, which have been well-received by users [16] Smart Electrical Lighting - The smart electrical lighting segment, including wall switches, LED lighting, and smart lighting, contributed 50.43% of total revenue in 2023 [16] - The company has expanded its LED lighting product line from bulbs to include light strips, ceiling lights, and other lighting products, with rapid growth in sales [16] - The company is focusing on the development of smart lighting solutions, including the "Muguang" brand, which offers smart lighting systems for various home scenarios [16] New Energy - The new energy segment, including charging piles and energy storage, achieved revenue of 380 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 148.37% [16] - The company has launched a series of charging guns and charging piles for both B2B and B2C markets, catering to different charging scenarios [16] - In the energy storage sector, the company has introduced products for both household and industrial use, such as the 125KW and 230KWh liquid-cooled industrial energy storage cabinets [16] Market and Industry Trends - The global smart socket market is expected to grow from 2.384 billion USD in 2022 to 4.7588 billion USD by 2036, with a CAGR of 14.2% [61] - The Chinese LED lighting market is projected to grow from 701.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 716.9 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increasing penetration rates [61] - The global energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with new installations reaching 147GW to 256GW by 2030 in China, driven by the "carbon neutrality" goal [90] Management and Governance - The company has a highly professional management team, led by Chairman Ruan Liping, who has extensive experience in the civil electrical industry [25] - The company has implemented a robust equity incentive plan, with 888 employees covered in the 2024 restricted stock incentive plan [25] - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with R&D expenses increasing from 180 million yuan in 2016 to 673 million yuan in 2023, accounting for 4.29% of revenue [34]

列车运行 控制系统 60% 铁路安全 防护系统 25% 高速铁 路列车 运行监 测系统 15% 2024年上半年公司分业务收入结构 资料来源：wind，华安证券研究所 资料来源：wind，华安证券研究所 资料来源：公司财报、华安证券研究所 资料来源：公司财报，华安证券研究所 2018 年公司以发行股份及现金支付方式购买了蓝信科技 100%股权。2019 年 1 月蓝信科技开始纳入上市公司合并报表范围。 蓝信科技，是我国动车组 DMS 系统、EOAS 系统等产品的核心供应商。主要产 品包括动车组列控动态监测系统（DMS 系统）、动车组司机操控信息分析系统（EOAS 系统）、高速铁路列控数据信息化管理平台等，其中 DMS 系统、EOAS 系统车载设 备是我国动车组的标准配置。 图表 10 蓝信科技产品列表 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious investment approach towards the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the need to follow policy-driven improvements and seek opportunities in medical hard technology [14]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector in Q3 2024 was below expectations, primarily due to a low base in Q3 2023 and ongoing operational challenges in hospitals amid anti-corruption measures [10][45]. - The medical device sector experienced a significant decline, with major companies like Mindray and United Imaging reporting lower performance, indicating a need for new drivers in medical equipment procurement [4][10]. - The overseas business segment showed strong performance, exceeding market expectations, and is becoming a new standard for companies [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Industry and Capital Status - Public funds have continuously reduced their allocation to the pharmaceutical sector, with the proportion of pharmaceutical stocks in heavy holdings decreasing to 9.66% in Q3 2024, down 0.22 percentage points from the previous quarter [19]. - The peak allocation was 18.23% in Q2 2020, indicating a significant decline in interest over the years [19]. 2. Performance Observation of Various Pharmaceutical Sub-sectors - Innovative products in the pharmaceutical sector are seeing significant volume growth, while consumer healthcare performance has not met expectations [15]. - The chemical pharmaceutical sector showed improvement in both revenue and profit compared to the same period in 2023, with Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reaching 4,136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.39% [56]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on medical hard technology, including medical devices, consumables, and innovative drugs, with specific companies highlighted such as Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and several pharmaceutical firms [14]. - It also suggests exploring opportunities in medical consumption sectors like ophthalmology, dental care, and health check-ups, as well as companies with significant overseas business [14]. 4. Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q3 2024, the top ten pharmaceutical stocks by total market value held by public funds included Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (37.37 billion yuan), Mindray Medical (36.56 billion yuan), and WuXi AppTec (19.36 billion yuan) [33]. - The report notes that the overall market value of pharmaceutical stocks held by public funds has seen fluctuations, with some stocks experiencing significant increases while others have decreased [39][40].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend stocks, infrastructure-related sectors, and growth technology opportunities in a fluctuating market environment [16][36][40] - It predicts a GDP growth rate of approximately 5.2% for Q1 2025, driven by improvements in consumption and real estate sales [22][63] Infrastructure Sector - There is a strong seasonal effect in infrastructure construction starting from the Spring Festival to mid-March, presenting opportunities in engineering consulting, environmental equipment, and non-metallic materials [2][10] - Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 6% in early 2025 due to improved local government financial conditions and increased fiscal space [10][16] Consumer Sector - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with an estimated impact of over 1 trillion yuan in consumer spending [9][42] - However, consumer confidence remains fragile, with a notable reliance on policy support for consumption recovery [3][40][65] - The report indicates that the average consumer propensity to spend has not improved significantly, remaining close to levels seen during the pandemic [41][65] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is showing signs of gradual improvement, with sales continuing to recover following policy adjustments made from September to November 2024 [50][54] - The report suggests that the first quarter of 2025 will see a continuation of this trend, although the extent of improvement may be limited [50][54] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a stable economic environment with a focus on policy-driven growth, particularly in the first quarter of 2025 [33][63] - It highlights the potential for a "red start" to the year, with policies aimed at stimulating consumption and infrastructure investment [63][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the CXO sector, indicating expected returns exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [113]. Core Insights - The CXO sector has shown signs of recovery, with many companies reporting sequential improvements in revenue and new orders in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 [26][153]. - The overall performance of the CXO sector is under pressure, with a notable decline in net profit margins due to high base effects from previous large orders and increased competition [149][160]. - The demand for innovative drugs is expected to gradually recover, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing the innovation ecosystem [209][210]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the CXO sector generated total revenue of 63.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.76%, and a net profit of 10.797 billion yuan, down 33.88% year-on-year [6]. - The performance of individual companies varies significantly, with some like WuXi AppTec and Kelun Pharmaceutical showing resilience, while others face challenges [6][10]. Market Trends - The report highlights a recovery in overseas business for many CXO companies, with WuXi AppTec's revenue from the US market reaching 6.9 billion yuan in Q3, a 19% increase from the previous quarter [26][29]. - The demand for peptide drugs remains strong, with WuXi AppTec's TIDES business revenue growing by 71% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [144][252]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the CXO sector is at a valuation bottom, with potential for recovery as high base effects from previous large orders are cleared [141][146]. - The increasing support for innovative drug development from the government is expected to boost the overall market sentiment and investment in the sector [209][210]. Capacity and Infrastructure - As of Q3 2024, the CXO sector's construction projects totaled 14.617 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.01%, while fixed assets reached 45.994 billion yuan, up 16.63% year-on-year [167]. - Major companies like WuXi AppTec and Kelun Pharmaceutical are expanding their production capacities to meet growing demand, particularly in the peptide segment [252][278].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector, highlighting the resilience of state-owned enterprises and their strong financial performance [7][9]. Core Insights - The TCM sector has shown significant performance differentiation, with some companies experiencing growth despite overall market challenges. Notable performers include Huazhu Sanjiu, Pian Zai Huang, and Dong'e Ejiao, which reported substantial profit increases [7][9]. - The approval of new TCM products by the National Medical Products Administration is expected to drive future growth, with eight new products approved in the first three quarters of 2024 [9][15]. - The third batch of national TCM centralized procurement has been finalized, indicating increased competition in the market, with 20 product groups included in the procurement plan [13][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance of Representative Companies - Pian Zai Huang reported a market value of 134.84 billion yuan, with a TTM PE of 42.91 and a revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.19% year-on-year growth in revenue [3]. - Yunnan Baiyao had a market value of 103.86 billion yuan, with a TTM PE of 24.42 and a revenue of 29.91 billion yuan, showing a modest 0.76% year-on-year growth [3]. - Dong'e Ejiao achieved a market value of 38.61 billion yuan, with a TTM PE of 25.01 and a revenue of 4.33 billion yuan, marking a significant 26.28% year-on-year growth [3]. New Product Approvals - In the first three quarters of 2024, the National Medical Products Administration approved eight new TCM products, including innovative drugs and classic formulations, which are expected to enhance market offerings [9][15]. Market Trends and Challenges - The TCM retail market saw a decline in overall sales, with a reported market size of 83.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, down 3.2% year-on-year. However, certain segments, such as liver and gallbladder medications, experienced growth [20][36]. - The report notes that the rising prices of medicinal materials have led to increased production costs and potential quality issues, impacting the overall market dynamics [22][36]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three key themes for investment in the TCM sector, focusing on companies with strong brand recognition and innovative product pipelines [24][49]. - The ongoing reforms in the healthcare system and the introduction of new pricing policies are expected to create favorable conditions for TCM companies, particularly those with strong market positions [26][49].