[Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 系列报告 美联储首次降息 50bp 的预示：近喜与远忧 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Profit] [Table_StockNameRptType] 东方电子（ 000682） 业绩符合预期，海外市场持续突破 公司点评 正 公 司深 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a 10.02% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2024, reaching 20.114 billion yuan, and a net profit of 2.709 billion yuan, up 8.36% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is expanding its domestic and international markets, achieving significant project wins in both sectors, with domestic revenue increasing by 8.12% to 19.246 billion yuan and international revenue soaring by 92.8% to 0.831 billion yuan [6] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 56.608 billion yuan, 62.386 billion yuan, and 68.481 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of 8.008 billion yuan, 8.768 billion yuan, and 9.604 billion yuan for the same years [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 29.03%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue from the smart grid segment was 9.357 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year, while the energy low-carbon segment saw a significant increase of 32.7%, reaching 5.052 billion yuan [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.90 yuan, 1.00 yuan, 1.09 yuan, and 1.20 yuan for the years 2024 to 2026 [7][8]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the tobacco industry [1][2] Core Views - The global tobacco market is driven by a dual spiral of taste and health, with price increases driving market growth [4] - China's tobacco industry operates under a state monopoly system, with a unified leadership and vertical management structure [5] - Tobacco consumption exhibits strong counter-cyclical properties and significantly contributes to fiscal revenue [6] - The consumer profile of smokers shows a decline in smoking rates but an increase in per capita consumption and spending [7] Global Tobacco Market - The global tobacco market in 2023 reached $9274 billion, with cigarettes accounting for 82.3% of the market [4] - The market is driven by high prices, new products, and new markets, despite declining smoking rates [4] - The global cigarette market grew from $5754 billion in 2009 to $7634 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 2.04% [80] - The global adult smoker population decreased from 1.351 billion in 2009 to 1.237 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of -0.63% [80] China's Tobacco Industry - China's tobacco industry is managed under a state monopoly system, with China Tobacco responsible for unified management and operations [5] - The industry's ROE is approximately 12%, with a net profit margin of around 15% [5] - The tobacco industry contributes about 7% of China's fiscal revenue, with tobacco consumption tax accounting for 51% of total consumption tax [6] - The per capita consumption of adult smokers in China increased from 8008 cigarettes/year in 2009 to 8839 cigarettes/year in 2023, with a CAGR of 0.71% [7] Tobacco Product Evolution - Tobacco products have evolved through three major forms: pipe tobacco, cigarettes, and e-cigarettes [30] - Cigarettes remain the dominant product, accounting for 78.5% of global tobacco sales in 2023, followed by heated tobacco (5.3%) and e-cigarettes (3.2%) [30] - E-cigarettes have emerged as a significant growth driver, with global sales reaching $769 billion in 2023, a 11.9% increase from the previous year [78] Tobacco Taxation and Fiscal Contribution - In China, the tax burden on cigarettes is approximately 48.4%, with consumption tax being the most significant component [49] - The fiscal contribution of the tobacco industry in China reached 15028 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 6.93% of national fiscal revenue [53] - In Japan, the tax burden on cigarettes is 61.7%, making it one of the highest-taxed products [62] - In the US, the average tax burden on cigarettes is 38%, with federal and state taxes accounting for 29% and 71% of the total tax revenue, respectively [67] Regulatory Environment - The global tobacco industry has seen significant regulatory changes, with many countries transitioning from state monopolies to more competitive market structures [35] - China maintains a complete state monopoly system, while countries like Japan and the US have adopted partial monopoly and regulated competition systems, respectively [35][57][64] - Russia has moved to a free competition system but with increasing regulatory oversight, including the introduction of minimum pricing and licensing requirements [72]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has announced a share repurchase plan, demonstrating confidence in its future development and recognition of its value, with a repurchase price not exceeding 27.01 CNY, representing a 77.7% premium over the closing price on September 18 [1] - The company aims to repurchase 0.5%-1% of its total share capital, with a total investment of 900 million to 1.8 billion CNY [1] - The overall stability in pig farming and continuous improvement in key production indicators, along with a steady decline in costs, are highlighted as positive factors for the company's future performance [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 89.921 billion CNY, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -6.390 billion CNY [3][4] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 112.561 billion CNY, with a significant recovery in net profit expected at 10.257 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 260.5% [3][5] - The company anticipates a gradual increase in pig and chicken output over the next few years, with expected net profits of 102.57 billion CNY in 2024, 154.5 billion CNY in 2025, and 129.55 billion CNY in 2026 [2][5] Production and Cost Analysis - The company has seen a 19% year-on-year increase in pig output from January to August 2024, with a total of 19.05 million pigs slaughtered [1] - The comprehensive cost of pig farming has decreased from 15.2 CNY/kg in Q1 to 13.8-14 CNY/kg in July 2024, indicating a positive trend in cost management [1] - The company is implementing measures to reduce piglet costs, which have decreased by 80-90 CNY per head since the beginning of the year, contributing to lower overall farming costs [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its position as the second-largest pig farming enterprise and the largest yellow feather chicken farming enterprise in China, with a forecasted increase in net profit driven by stable market conditions and improved operational efficiency [2][6] - The anticipated growth in output and profitability is supported by a favorable market environment for both pork and poultry products, with expectations of normal profitability in the yellow feather chicken industry in 2024 [2][6]

[Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

联影医疗（688271） 公司覆盖 国产医疗影像设备先驱，创新引领志在全球发展 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 策略周报 重视成长主题性机会和出口、养殖超跌反弹机会 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_IndNameRptType] !" !"#$ [Table_Title] !"#$%&'()*)+,-./01234 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...