Market Performance - On May 12, 2025, the North Exchange 50 index increased by 2.89%, closing at 1419.13 points[3] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange reached 32.592 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 6.26%[3] - The average daily trading volume for the previous week was 31.119 billion CNY, indicating an increase in trading activity[3] Industry Trends - Major industries on the North Exchange saw gains, with transportation (+11.3%), social services (+7.2%), and defense industry (+7.2%) leading the way[3] - Only the textile and apparel industry experienced a slight decline of -0.1%[3] Stock Performance - Among the 265 listed companies, 243 saw their stock prices rise, while 22 declined[3] - Leading gainers included Qifeng Precision (+29.97%) and Lechuang Technology (+22.28%) with significant trading volumes[3][9] - The most active stocks by turnover included Lingge Technology (625 million CNY) and Chuangyuan Xinke (611 million CNY)[3] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange is at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.27 times, higher than the ChiNext's 34.24 times[3] - The electronics sector has the highest average P/E ratio at 238.6 times, while transportation and media sectors have lower valuations[3][12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[3][15]

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Outcomes - The US will impose a 10% tariff on 34% of the goods previously subject to "reciprocal tariffs" within 90 days, aligning with other countries[3] - China will also apply a 10% tariff on the same 34% of goods in response, resulting in a total reduction of tariffs by 115% over the next 90 days[3] - The statement did not address the 20% tariff related to the "fentanyl issue"[3] Group 2: Economic Impact on China - China's export growth is expected to decline by approximately 25 percentage points due to a 30% tariff, impacting the annual growth rate by about 3.6 percentage points[3] - The projected export growth for China in 2024 is 5.9%, with a cumulative growth of 6.4% in the first four months of 2025[3] - The overall impact of tariffs on China's GDP is estimated to be a reduction of about 0.5 percentage points for 2025[3] Group 3: Policy Responses - The Chinese government aims to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, with a focus on job stability as a priority[3] - There is an emphasis on accelerating the implementation of existing policies and increasing support for key sectors like technology and consumption[3] - The use of policy financial tools is suggested as a flexible response to external changes, particularly for urban renewal and infrastructure projects[3] Group 4: Market Reactions - The progress in US-China trade negotiations is expected to enhance market risk appetite for Chinese assets, with a rebound in sectors previously affected by trade tensions[5] - The yield curve for government bonds is anticipated to steepen, with short-term rates declining due to monetary easing, while long-term rates may face upward pressure[5] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to strengthen, with the USD/CNY rate potentially stabilizing around 7.1[6]

行业深度报告 · 公用事业行业 火电、水电业绩增长,核电、绿电业绩承压 — 电力行业 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报总结 推荐 维持评级 分析师 陶贻功 ☎： 010-8092-7673 新能源:短期业绩承压,136号文助力行业迈入高质量发展新阶段。2024 O 年、25Q1,我们选取的新能源发电样本企业实现归母净利润 178.0、56.2 亿 元,同比-7.8%、-7.8%。业绩下滑主要受风光资源条件不佳、上网电价下行、 以及减值计提影响。展望未来,136号文出台推动新能源加速入市,我们预计 行业投资将逐渐趋于克制。2025年5月8日,山东发布136号文承接方案的 征求意见稿,基于其对存量、增量项目机制电量、机制电价的设计,我们判断: 1）存量项目的收益预期更为明朗,其中机制电价锚定燃煤发电基准价,而在 机制电量比例的设计上,预计现行新能源市场化程度较低的省份将更具优势, 如广东、浙江、山东、江西等。2）对于需参与竞价的增量项目,一些绿电需 求旺盛(由电力需求和能耗双控政策或可再生能源消纳责任权重共同驱动)、 且本地新能源占比相对较低的省份,竟价的激烈程度预计更低,如福建、广东 2025 年 05 ...

北交所日报 北交所日报(2025.05.09) 2025 年 05 月 09 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 2. 【银河北交所】2024 中期策略_新质生产力赋能 北证,关注国央企投资价值 3. 【中国银河证券】Deepseek 冲击波:北交所_ 中小企业的智能化赋能 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ☎: 010-8092-7663 网：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 2025-05-09 相对沪深 300 表现图 资料来源:iFinD,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 1. 【银河北交所】2025 年度策略_并购重组助高质 发展，抓两新两重投资机遇 5 月 9 日, 北证 50 涨跌幅为-0.12%,收于 1379.31点。北证 50 指数开 ● 盘点位为 1380.69 点，最高点位达 1399.14 点，最低点位为 1367.92 点。同 日,上证指数收于 3342.00点,涨跌幅为-0.30%;沪深 300 收 ...

宏观动态报告 关税冲击下的出口韧性 4 月进出口数据解读 2025年5月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 网: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 风险提示:外需走弱的风险;国内经济下行的风险;贸易摩擦加剧的风险。 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 集成电路和汽车出口修复上行:(1)4月份机电、高技术和劳动密集型产品 ● 出口增速均有不同程度回落,其中机电产品出口增速 10.1%(前值 13.4%), 高新技术产品出口增速 6.5%(前值 7.3%)，劳动密集型产品出口增速转负至 -1.7%（前值 9.1%）；（2）集成电路 20.2%（前值 7.9%）和汽车包括底盘 4.4%(前值 1.7%)出口增速均有不同程度上行;通用机械设备 17%(前值 ...

2025年5月9日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 中华人民共和国和俄罗斯联邦发布关于全球 战略稳定的联合声明 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:降息需要更长等待,联储内部可能分为两派。目前,我们认为第一种情 况出现的概率更高,即美联储仍可以在下半年开启降息,但 7月出现首次降息 的概率正在走弱。这一方面是由于关税谈判进展仍然缓慢,另一方面,美国经 济增长惯性的延续叠加私人部门存货对通胀上升和劳动市场下行造成缓冲,7 月美联储也未必有足够数据判断是否应该降息。不过,我们仍认为 2025年的 通胀中枢并不会明显高于 3.0%-3.5%的范围,也并不会影响长期通胀中枢,因 此货币政策并不会持续紧绷,美联储依然可以在年内降息 50-75BP。 策略:一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期。A 股市场投资展望：一系列政策持续加 0 码的环境下,A 股市场长期稳健运行具备更为坚实的基础。继 4 ...

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 10 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.05.08) ■成交金额（合计/亿元) ●换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-11 03-14 04-15 02-10 8T 70 ET 70 02-26 03-03 03-06 03-19 03-24 03-27 04-07 04-10 04-18 04-23 04-28 05-06 01-02 01-15 02-05 02-21 04-01 01-23 01- 01 可证券|CGS 中国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.05.08) ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 北交所日 ...

⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 中国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.05.08) 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 10 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.05.08) ■成交金额（合计/亿元) ●换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-11 03-14 04-15 02-10 8T 70 ET 70 02-26 03-03 03-06 03-19 03-24 03-27 04-07 04-10 04-18 04-23 04-28 05-06 01-02 01-15 02-05 02-21 04-01 01-23 01- 01 ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 可证券|CGS 北交所日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Bank (stock code: 002948) [1] Core Views - Qingdao Bank shows steady improvement in revenue growth and a rebound in net interest margin, with a revenue increase of 8.22% year-on-year in 2024 and a net profit growth of 20.16% [4] - The bank's strategy focuses on structural adjustments, enhancing customer base, optimizing collaboration, and improving capabilities, which supports its stable expansion and solid asset quality [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Qingdao Bank's revenue grew by 8.22% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 20.16%. The weighted average ROE was 11.51%, up by 0.8 percentage points [4] - For Q4 2024, revenue and net profit grew by 8.5% and 44.53% year-on-year, respectively, driven by high growth in net interest income and other non-interest income [4] - In Q1 2025, revenue rose by 9.69% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 16.42% [4] Net Interest Income and Margin - In 2024, net interest income increased by 6.38% year-on-year, with a notable growth of 11.97% in Q1 2025. The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.73%, down by 10 basis points year-on-year, but showed a rebound in Q1 2025 due to effective cost optimization [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans grew by 13.53% year-on-year in 2024, with corporate loans contributing significantly at 18.71% growth. Retail loan growth showed signs of recovery, with a 1.56% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the beginning of the year [4] - Total deposits increased by 12.13% year-on-year in 2024, with personal deposits growing by 16.64% [4] Non-Interest Income and Investment Gains - Non-interest income rose by 13.58% year-on-year in 2024, although intermediary income faced pressure, declining by 6.39% [4] - Investment income saw significant growth, with increases of 33.28% in 2024 and 188.64% in Q1 2025 [4] Asset Quality - The bank's non-performing loan ratio was 1.14% at the end of 2024, down by 4 basis points year-on-year, while the coverage ratio improved to 251.49% [4] - Retail loan risks increased slightly, with the non-performing loan ratio rising to 2.02% [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 8.22% for 2024 and 8.19% for 2025, with net profit growth rates of 20.16% and 15.10% respectively [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hangzhou Bank (stock code: 600926) [1] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank continues to show strong profit growth, with a 2024 revenue increase of 9.61% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 18.07% year-on-year. The bank's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16%, reflecting a 0.43 percentage point increase year-on-year [3] - The bank's asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530.07% as of March 2025, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [3] - The bank's strategy focuses on expanding its presence in the Yangtze River Delta region, with a clear plan to strengthen corporate finance and enhance retail and small micro-business services [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's revenue reached approximately 38.38 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 9.61% for 2025 [38] - The net interest income for 2024 was approximately 24.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.37% [39] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is estimated at 16.98 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 18.07% [38] Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the bank's NPL ratio was 0.76%, with a stable level of attention loans at 0.55% [3] - The bank's retail loan risk has slightly increased, with an NPL ratio of 0.77% for retail loans [3] Growth Strategy - The bank is actively expanding in the Yangtze River Delta, leveraging its geographical advantages to enhance its market position [3] - The bank's strategic plan includes strengthening corporate finance and expanding retail and small micro-business services as key growth drivers [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 19.54 yuan, with corresponding price-to-book (P/B) ratios of 0.76X for 2025, 0.65X for 2026, and 0.55X for 2027 [3][38]