Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating for the industry, indicating a "Neutral" stance, with expected performance relative to the benchmark index within the range of -5% to 10% [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a projected growth rate of 2.67% for the industry, with a specific mention of a 4.73% growth observed in 2015 [5]. - It notes a slight increase in performance metrics, with a 0.31% and 0.56% change in relevant indicators [5]. Summary by Sections - **Industry Performance**: The industry is expected to maintain a growth trajectory, with a focus on the 2.67% growth rate and historical performance of 4.73% in 2015 [5]. - **Analyst Background**: The report is authored by Zhang Qi, a non-bank analyst with two years of experience in non-bank research, holding a PhD from the University of International Business and Economics, and has been with China Galaxy Securities Research Institute since December 2020 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of approximately 207.6 to 211.2 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.1% to 33.3% [7] - The company’s revenue growth is anticipated to transition from high-speed to medium-high speed as it reaches a revenue scale of 200 billion yuan, with a focus on healthier growth quality [7] - The net profit margin for 2025 is projected to be around 20.9% to 21.7%, with a slight year-on-year increase [7] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sales dynamics during the Spring Festival and the "water head" catalyst in March for revenue growth [7] - Long-term growth opportunities are identified in category expansion and international market penetration, particularly in Southeast Asia and future plans for the US and Middle East markets [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 15,839 million yuan, 20,913 million yuan, 26,559 million yuan, and 32,217 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 40.63%, 32.04%, 27.00%, and 21.31% [2] - The expected net profit for the same years is 3,327 million yuan, 4,474 million yuan, 5,679 million yuan, and 6,980 million yuan, with profit growth rates of 63.09%, 34.48%, 26.95%, and 22.90% [2] - The diluted EPS is projected to be 6.40 yuan, 8.60 yuan, 10.92 yuan, and 13.42 yuan for the years 2024A to 2027E [2] - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 40.33 in 2024A to 19.22 in 2027E, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness over time [2]

Export Performance - In December 2025, China's exports reached $357.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6%, up from 5.9% in the previous month, and above the ten-year average of 3.4%[1] - Imports in December totaled $243.6 billion, with a growth rate of 5.7%, significantly higher than the previous month's 1.9% and the ten-year average of 0.8%[1] - The trade surplus for December was $114.14 billion, compared to $111.68 billion in the previous month[1] Market Dynamics - The strong export growth in December was supported by global economic recovery and ongoing market diversification, with ASEAN exports growing by 11.2% and exports to Hong Kong increasing by 31.4%[1][5] - The PMI for global manufacturing remained above the threshold at 50.4, indicating continued economic expansion, which positively influenced export orders[5] Product Categories - High-tech product exports grew by 16.6%, while mechanical and electrical products saw a 12.1% increase; however, labor-intensive product exports continued to decline, with a rate of -8.5%[3][20] - Notable increases in specific categories included automotive exports rising by 71.6% and integrated circuits by 47.7%[3][20] Regional Trade Insights - Exports to the United States continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 30%, contributing negatively to overall export growth[1][14] - Exports to Africa remained strong, with a growth rate of 21.8%, contributing 1.2 percentage points to overall export growth[1][14] Future Outlook - China's overall export growth for 2025 is projected at 5.5%, slightly down from 5.8% in 2024, with expectations of continued resilience despite external uncertainties[25] - The ongoing diversification of export markets and improvements in product competitiveness are expected to support future growth[25][32]

Inflation Overview - The US CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with expectations, and the previous value was also 2.7%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with forecasts[2] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] Key Contributors to Inflation - Food prices were a significant driver, rising 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.10 percentage points to overall inflation[2] - Energy prices showed mixed results, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase contributing about 0.02 percentage points, while gasoline prices fell by 0.5%[2] - Core inflation was primarily driven by service prices, which increased by 0.2% month-on-month, contributing 0.16 percentage points[2] Housing and Services Impact - Housing costs remained elevated, rising 0.4% month-on-month and contributing about 0.14 percentage points to inflation, accounting for nearly half of the overall increase[2] - Medical services rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while leisure services increased by 1.8%, indicating a broadening of service inflation[2] Market Implications - The inflation results suggest a moderate outlook, with little change in market expectations for interest rate cuts; the probability of a rate cut in April increased from approximately 38% to 42% following the data release[2] - The current core inflation remains above 2.6%, indicating that the Federal Reserve may maintain rates in March and consider cuts between April and June based on upcoming data[2] Risks to Inflation Outlook - Risks include the potential for service prices to decline less than expected, a directional reversal in energy prices, and renewed supply chain disruptions[5]

Inflation Overview - The US CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with expectations, and the previous value was also 2.7%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with forecasts[2] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] Key Contributors to Inflation - Food prices were a major driver, rising 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.10 percentage points to overall inflation[2] - Energy prices showed mixed results, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase contributing about 0.02 percentage points, while gasoline prices fell by 0.5%[2] - Core inflation was primarily driven by service prices, which increased by 0.2% month-on-month, contributing 0.16 percentage points[2] Housing and Services Impact - Housing costs remained elevated, rising 0.4% month-on-month and contributing about 0.14 percentage points to inflation, accounting for nearly half of the overall increase[2] - Medical services and leisure services also showed strength, with medical services rising 0.4% and leisure services increasing by 1.8% month-on-month[2] Market Implications - The inflation results suggest a moderate outlook, with little change in market expectations for interest rate cuts; the probability of a rate cut in April increased from approximately 38% to 42% following the data release[2] - The current core inflation remains above 2.6%, indicating that discussions around rate cuts are possible but not guaranteed[2] Risks to Consider - Risks include the potential for service prices to decline less than expected, a directional reversal in energy prices, and renewed supply chain disruptions[5]

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 2.50%, closing at 1,565.58 points, with a trading volume of 480.45 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 7.90% on January 13, 2026 [1][4] - The overall valuation of companies listed on the North Exchange is approximately 49.78 times earnings, which is higher than the valuations of companies on the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1][8] - The most significant gainers in the market included sectors such as media (+9.8%), oil and petrochemicals (+6.3%), and pharmaceuticals (+5.4%), while the largest declines were seen in non-ferrous metals (-9.7%), defense and military (-6.9%), and telecommunications (-4.5%) [1][2] Market Performance - The North Exchange's total market capitalization reached 944.93 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 575.17 billion yuan [1] - The trading activity on January 13 showed a significant increase compared to the average daily trading volume of 26.13 billion yuan from the previous week [1] - Among the 287 listed companies, 102 saw an increase in stock price, while 182 experienced a decline, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] Individual Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks included Xin Ganjiang (+30.00%), Kang Le Wei Shi (+29.90%), and Yi Neng Power (+20.06%), while the largest losers were Tian Li Composite (-16.24%), Fuji Da (-13.96%), and Xing Chen Technology (-12.88%) [6][7] - The most actively traded stocks by turnover included Xing Tu Ce Kong (2.271 billion yuan), Liu Jin Technology (1.623 billion yuan), and Zhong Cheng Technology (1.268 billion yuan) [1] Valuation Analysis - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for companies in the non-ferrous metals sector was the highest at 136.3 times, followed by household appliances at 91.6 times and telecommunications at 90.2 times [1][8] - The valuation of companies on the North Exchange remains consistently higher than that of companies on the ChiNext, indicating a premium for North Exchange listings [1][9] Industry Insights - The North Exchange is witnessing a diverse range of industry performances, with significant growth in sectors like pharmaceuticals and media, while traditional sectors like non-ferrous metals are facing challenges [1][10] - The distribution of listed companies across various industries shows a balanced representation, with a focus on innovation-driven sectors [11]

Group 1: Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Development - The brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is transitioning from laboratory experiments to industrial production, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for commercialization[4] - China's proactive policies and multi-layered support systems are accelerating the domestic BCI industry development, aiming for significant advancements by 2025 and beyond[4] - The BCI industry is forming a complete supply chain covering upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, indicating robust growth potential[4] Group 2: AI Industry Trends - The AI industry in the U.S. is experiencing intense competition, with significant capital inflows leading to a new wave of financing and valuation surges among leading companies[12] - In Europe, there is a strong focus on governance and collaboration to promote AI development, addressing new risks associated with digital technologies[14] - The integration of AI into traditional industries and public services is accelerating, driving a shift towards intelligent and precise operations[19] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Projections - By 2034, the BCI market is projected to reach a valuation of approximately $124 billion, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.57% from 2025[5] - The competition between China and the U.S. in the AI sector is intensifying, with both nations striving for leadership in technological advancements[5] - The global AI landscape is characterized by a multi-polar competitive structure, with various countries vying for strategic advantages in AI governance and technology[16]

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 5.35% to close at 1,605.77 points on January 12, 2026, with a trading volume of 435.21 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 6.72% [1] - All sectors on the North Exchange experienced gains, with the media sector leading at +29.9%, followed by computer (+14.5%), non-ferrous metals (+10.4%), and telecommunications (+8.7%) [1] - The overall valuation of the North Exchange is at 50.66 times earnings, which is higher than the valuations of the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1][8] Trading Performance - The North Exchange's total market capitalization reached 9,607.03 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 5,867.32 billion yuan [1] - The average daily trading volume for the previous week was 261.31 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery in trading levels on January 12 [1] - Among the 287 listed companies, 272 saw their stock prices rise, while 15 experienced declines [1] Stock Highlights - The top gainers included Zhongcheng Technology (+30.00%), Tianrun Technology (+30.00%), and Xingtuzhihui (+29.99%) [1][6] - The largest market cap among the top gainers was Xingtuzhihui at 207.96 billion yuan, while the highest P/E ratio was for Tianrun Technology at 279.24 times [6] - The top decliners were Hongxi Technology (-6.21%), Henghe Co., Ltd. (-2.98%), and Hengtong Light (-2.52%) [1][7] Valuation Analysis - The average P/E ratio for the North Exchange's listed companies is 50.66 times, with the highest sector valuation in non-ferrous metals at 155.3 times [1][8] - The P/E ratios for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext are 80.15 times and 46.56 times, respectively, indicating that the North Exchange maintains a higher valuation compared to ChiNext [1][9] - The valuation trends show that the North Exchange continues to outperform in terms of P/E ratios compared to other boards [9]

- The report primarily focuses on the performance of quantitative funds, including index-enhanced funds, absolute return funds, and other active quantitative funds, with detailed statistics on their weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual returns[2][3][4] - The report highlights the performance of index-enhanced funds, such as CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, with their weekly excess return medians being -0.05%, -1.77%, and -0.73%, respectively[3][4][5] - For absolute return (hedged) funds, the weekly return median is -0.11%, while for other active quantitative funds, the weekly return median is 4.41%[6][7] - The report also provides detailed performance data for funds categorized by their benchmark indices, such as '000300.SH', '000905.SH', and others, with their respective weekly return medians ranging from 1.76% to 5.86%[7][8][9] - Other strategy funds, including multi-factor funds and big data-driven funds, are also analyzed, with multi-factor funds showing a weekly return median of 5.54% and big data-driven active funds achieving a weekly return median of 8.19%[15][18][19]

公司点评 · 家用电器行业 商业航天影子龙头，控股乾照光电 2026 年 01 月 11 日 核心观点 | 主要财务指标预测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 58,530 | 61,641 | 69,213 | 75,926 | | 收入增长率% | 9.17 | 5.31 | 12.28 | 9.70 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 2,246 | 2,677 | 2,997 | 3,413 | | 利润增长率% | 7.17 | 19.20 | 11.93 | 13.88 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 1.72 | 2.05 | 2.30 | 2.62 | | PE | 14.12 | 11.84 | 10.58 | 9.29 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院（注：收盘价为 2026 年 1 月 9 日） 海信视像（股票代码：600060） 推荐 维持评级 分析师 何伟 ：hewei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码： ...