北交所日报 北交所日报（2026.02.25） 2026 年 02 月 25 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-02-25 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 01-02 01-14 01-24 02-13 02-25 03-07 03-19 03-31 04-11 04-23 05-08 05-20 05-30 06-12 06-24 07-04 07-16 07-28 08-07 08-19 08-29 09-10 09-22 10-10 10-22 11-03 11-13 11-25 12-05 12-17 12-29 01-12 01-22 02-03 02 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The Shanghai government has introduced new policies to relax housing purchase restrictions, aiming to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market [3] - The policies include lowering the threshold for non-local residents to purchase homes, increasing the maximum housing provident fund loan amount, and improving property tax policies to support housing demand [3] - The report suggests that these measures will likely release pent-up housing demand, leading to a gradual recovery in the real estate market [3] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The Shanghai government has relaxed housing purchase restrictions for non-local residents, including: - Reducing the minimum social security or individual income tax payment period to 1 year for purchasing homes in the outer ring [3] - Allowing non-local residents who have paid individual income tax for 3 years or more to purchase an additional home in the outer ring [3] - Permitting non-local residents with a Shanghai residence permit for over 5 years to buy one home without proof of social security or tax payments [3] Loan Policy Adjustments - The maximum housing provident fund loan amount for first-time homebuyers has been increased from 1.6 million to 2.4 million, with potential increases for families with multiple children or those purchasing green buildings [3] - The loan policy has been optimized to allow individuals who have previously used provident fund loans to apply again under certain conditions [3] Tax Policy Enhancements - Starting January 1, 2026, property tax exemptions will be granted to local residents' children when purchasing their first home, aimed at stimulating housing demand [3] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in leading real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others [3] - It also suggests focusing on quality developers, property management firms, and commercial real estate [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The "Trade-in Policy" has shown initial effectiveness, driving automotive consumption exceeding 100 billion yuan, with the average purchase price for trade-in vehicles rising to over 164,000 yuan [4] - As of February 19, 2026, the trade-in policy has benefited 28.88 million people, generating sales of 198.02 billion yuan, with 612,000 vehicles traded in, leading to new car sales of 100.53 billion yuan [4] - The report anticipates a recovery in automotive market consumption post-Spring Festival, supported by the upcoming launch of several flagship new energy products [4] Summary by Sections Automotive Market Performance - In January 2026, China's automotive sales decreased by 3.2% year-on-year to 2.346 million units, with domestic sales down 14.8% to 1.665 million units [4] - Passenger vehicle sales saw a significant decline of 19.5% year-on-year, while commercial vehicle sales increased by 23.4% [4] - Exports of automobiles rose by 44.9% year-on-year to 681,000 units, with passenger vehicle exports increasing by 48.9% [4] New Energy Vehicle Insights - New energy vehicle sales in January 2026 were stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year to 945,000 units, achieving a penetration rate of 40.3% [4] - The report highlights that the penetration rate for new energy passenger vehicles is 41.7%, while commercial vehicles stand at 22.6% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading passenger vehicle companies, the intelligent manufacturing supply chain, and the humanoid robot industry chain [4] - Specific recommendations include Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motors for vehicle manufacturing, and companies like Desay SV and Horizon Robotics for intelligent components [5]

公司跟踪报告 · 食品饮料行业 迈向平台型公司，再迎布局时点 —— 东鹏饮料动态更新报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,839 | 21,108 | 27,085 | 32,964 | | 收入增长率% | 40.63 | 33.27 | 28.31 | 21.71 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3,327 | 4,547 | 5,914 | 7,271 | | 利润增长率% | 63.09 | 36.69 | 30.06 | 22.93 | | PE | 44.65 | 32.66 | 25.11 | 20.43 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院 | 东鹏饮料（股票代码：605499） | | --- | 推荐 维持评级 分析师 刘光意 ：021-20252650 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 研究助理：彭潇颖 ： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the communication industry [2] Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing robust growth across the entire value chain, with a high level of activity in the computing power sector [1][5] - Domestic advancements include the development of 5G-A technologies and the integration of AI applications, indicating a strong focus on enhancing computational resources [1][5] - Internationally, collaborations such as the partnership between STMicroelectronics and AWS highlight the industry's shift towards AI and cloud computing, with significant investments in data center infrastructure [1][5] Summary by Sections Domestic Developments - The report emphasizes the progress in 5G-A technologies and the ongoing research in 6G, focusing on seamless integration between optical and wireless communication systems [1] - The demand for computational resources is increasing, indicating that the computing power industry remains in a high-growth phase [5] International Collaborations - Notable partnerships, such as META's agreement with NVIDIA, showcase the industry's commitment to advancing AI capabilities and enhancing computational efficiency [1] - The construction of data centers in the U.S. by major companies like Facebook and OpenAI reflects ongoing investments in infrastructure to support growing computational needs [1][5]

Group 1: Domestic Economic Trends - The extended Spring Festival holiday is expected to boost travel, tourism, and consumption significantly, with a projected increase in passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel rush[2] - In 2026, the Spring Festival is anticipated to set five new records for travel intensity, with a notable increase in self-driving trips and strong demand for tourism[9] - The sales of commercial housing during the Spring Festival are expected to show a positive year-on-year growth of 5.2%[4] Group 2: AI and Technological Advancements - The year 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the widespread adoption of AI consumer terminals, marking the beginning of competitive AI applications[2] - The introduction of AI technologies during the Spring Festival gala has enhanced public awareness of embodied intelligence, further supporting the notion of 2026 as a key year for AI application competition[34] Group 3: International Trade and Currency - The repeal of Trump-era tariffs is expected to lead to a moderate appreciation of the RMB, with the current tariff rate on Chinese goods at 28.93%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from late 2025[4] - The global trade tensions are easing, which is likely to support a resilient growth rate in China's export sector[4] Group 4: Inflation and Economic Data - Inflation rates in the US and Japan are lower than expected, indicating a downward trend, with the US CPI at 2.4% and Japan's at 1.5%[6] - The US GDP growth for Q4 2025 was below expectations, primarily due to temporary impacts from government shutdowns, reflecting a growth rate of 1.4%[6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer electronics industry, particularly in AI hardware, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [4][13]. Core Insights - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing rapid growth in new product categories, especially AI-related devices, driven by strong sales during the Chinese New Year [6][10]. - Major companies are accelerating their investments in AI hardware, with significant developments from firms like OpenAI and Apple, which are expanding their product lines to include AI wearables and smart devices [9][10][11]. - The report highlights a notable decline in smartphone sales in China, with a 23% year-on-year drop in January 2026, although Apple remains a standout performer with positive growth [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Events Overview - During the Chinese New Year, sales of smart wearable devices increased by 130%, and health monitoring devices saw over 60% growth [6]. - AI glasses sales surged by 70-80%, while drones and robots experienced a 30-50% increase in sales [6]. - AI toy sales skyrocketed by 500 times during the holiday season, with six products exceeding one million units sold [6][7]. - The UTree humanoid robot showcased advanced performance during the Spring Festival Gala, achieving a maximum running speed of 4 m/s [7]. - OpenAI is developing a smart speaker with facial recognition capabilities, expected to launch in 2027 [9]. - Apple is advancing three new AI wearable devices, including high-end smart glasses and AI AirPods, aimed at enhancing the iPhone experience [10]. - Tesla's Cybercab, a fully autonomous electric vehicle, was officially launched [11]. - Smartphone sales in China saw a significant decline, with Apple being the only major brand to report growth [12]. Latest Industry Perspectives - The evolution of large model capabilities is pushing the industry towards the "Agentic AI" phase, with hardware being the most reliable beneficiary of AI applications, presenting new growth opportunities for consumer electronics companies [13]. - Recommended companies for investment include Crystal Optoelectronics, Jiebang Technology, and Tianyue Advanced, with a focus on AI glasses, AI toys, humanoid robots, and smart driving technologies [13].

Inflation Trends - The CPI year-on-year decreased to 3.0%, while the core CPI fell to 6.1%, indicating a slowdown in inflation driven by lagging factors[3] - The nominal CPI was slightly below expectations due to a significant drop in energy prices and a continued slowdown in used car prices[3] - Core services saw a slight acceleration, primarily due to increases in non-residential costs, but housing costs continued to ease, supporting the core inflation target of around 2%[3] Food and Energy Prices - Food prices adjusted seasonally decreased from 3.6% in the previous month to 3.1%, with year-on-year growth remaining at 3.0%[3] - The energy index adjusted seasonally fell by 4.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, significantly impacting nominal inflation[3] - Energy commodities saw a month-on-month decrease of 6.6%, with gasoline prices dropping by 6.1%[3] Core Goods and Services - Core goods, excluding food and energy, showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, indicating limited pass-through of tariff-related price increases[3] - Core services, excluding energy services, increased slightly to 3.5% month-on-month, reflecting marginal acceleration in service prices[3] Housing Costs - Housing costs decreased month-on-month by 0.3% and year-on-year by 4.3%, continuing a slow downward trend that limits service inflation[4] - The moderate increase in rent and owner-equivalent rent was consistent with leading rental indicators, supporting the easing of core inflation towards the 2% target[4] Market Expectations - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts remain stable, with CME data indicating a baseline pricing for three rate cuts throughout the year[4] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing to 3.67% and the 2-year yield down to 4.67%[4]

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - M1 growth rate increased to 4.9% in January 2026, up from 3.8% in December 2025[1] - M2 growth rate rose to 9.0% in January 2026, compared to 8.5% in December 2025[1] - New social financing (社融) reached 7.2 trillion yuan in January 2026, an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.2%[1] Group 2: Household Deposits and Trends - Household deposit growth rate estimated at 7.18% in January 2026, down from 9.68% in December 2025[1] - The difference between household deposit growth and M2 growth turned negative for the first time in 7.5 years, at -1.82 percentage points[1] - Non-bank deposits showed a rapid increase in the rolling 12-month sum[1] Group 3: Loan and Credit Dynamics - New RMB loans totaled 4.71 trillion yuan in January 2026, a decrease of 420 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 6.1%[1] - The decline in loans was primarily driven by a decrease in corporate loans, particularly in medium to long-term loans, which fell by 280 billion yuan[19] - Residential credit showed a slight increase of 128 billion yuan, with short-term loans up by 159.4 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 146.6 billion yuan[19] Group 4: Financing Sources and Trends - Government bond financing increased by 2.83 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a net financing of 9.76 trillion yuan in January 2026[26] - Corporate bond financing rose by 579 billion yuan, driven by technology innovation bonds, which net financed approximately 2.52 trillion yuan[25] - The effective social financing growth rate, excluding government financing, was 5.31%, down from 5.62%[5]

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - Since August 2023, precious metals and industrial metals have shown significant price increases, with gold rising by 45.6% and silver by 103% since August 2025, while COMEX copper has increased by 15% since September 2023, raising expectations for oil price increases[2] - Historical analysis of commodity cycles from 1992-2021 indicates a valid transmission logic from precious metals to industrial metals and then to oil, driven by monetary easing and economic recovery[2] - The current commodity cycle differs from previous ones, with precious metal price increases occurring ahead of monetary easing, driven by de-dollarization expectations and geopolitical risks[2] Group 2: Key Support Factors for Oil Prices - Two main support factors for oil prices are identified: the desire of oil-producing countries to raise prices and geopolitical premiums due to global political and economic challenges[2] - The U.S. is seen as a key player in oil price dynamics, with potential motivations to raise prices post-midterm elections, as inflation concerns may ease[2] - OPEC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, are also inclined to raise oil prices to ensure fiscal stability, especially under increasing financial pressures[2] Group 3: Investment Insights - Brent crude oil prices are projected to rise to the range of $75-80 per barrel within the year, driven by the dual logic of rising expectations and geopolitical premiums[3] - Upstream resource sectors are expected to directly benefit from rising oil prices, enhancing profitability and dividend stability, making high-dividend stocks more attractive in a declining interest rate environment[3] - Oil price increases are likely to boost capital expenditures in oil companies, creating lagging benefits for oil service and high-end equipment sectors[3]