Market Overview - In January 2026, the A-share market showed a growth style dominance with structural differentiation, where the STAR 50 and CSI 1000 indices rose over 10%[4] - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices saw gains exceeding 5%, while the ChiNext and Shanghai Composite Index increased by over 3%[4] Investment Themes - The trading focus in January continued to revolve around "growth stocks and cyclical stocks," driven by technological upgrades in AI, semiconductor equipment, and commercial aerospace sectors[4] - Geopolitical factors led to rising international precious metal prices, benefiting cyclical sectors like copper and aluminum, as well as strategic resources such as lithium and rare earths[4] February Market Outlook - February is expected to be a "window period" for market confidence, driven by high growth expectations in new economies and relatively abundant liquidity before the Spring Festival[4] - The market is likely to see accelerated rotation in sectors like technology and non-ferrous metals, with strong earnings reports becoming focal points[4] Key Stock Recommendations - Top stock picks for February include Zijin Mining (601899.SH) with a projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 3.37 in 2026, reflecting a strong outlook due to rising copper prices[6] - Yara International (000893.SZ) is recommended due to expected high potassium fertilizer prices, with EPS forecasted to rise from 1.03 in 2024 to 2.93 in 2026[6] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, commercialization outcomes falling short of expectations, and delays in product development and market entry[4]

Market Performance - On January 29, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index decreased by 1.69%, closing at 1,536.00 points[1] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange was 29.703 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 4.79%[1] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange was 937.031 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 583.083 billion CNY[1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (+30.0%), Media (+19.8%), and Food & Beverage (+5.1%) on the same day[1] - The sectors with the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals (-3.3%), Electric Power Equipment (-2.5%), and Social Services (-1.9%)[1] Stock Performance - Among the 291 listed companies, 85 saw an increase, 3 remained flat, and 203 experienced a decline[1] - The leading gainers included Keli Co. (+29.99%), Liujin Technology (+19.82%), and Meibang Technology (+12.70%) while the largest decliners were Nongda Technology (-12.93%), Guangxin Technology (-9.91%), and Aweite (-7.91%)[1] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange was approximately 48.50 times earnings, which is higher than the ChiNext's 45.59 times but lower than the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's 79.67 times[1] - The highest average P/E ratio by sector was in Non-ferrous Metals at 140.1 times, followed by Oil & Petrochemicals at 106.2 times and Food & Beverage at 90.1 times[1] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[1][16]

纯债规模承压，杠杆久期策略分化 ——Q4 债券基金季报分析 核心观点 基金规模：债基规模回升，其中纯债基收缩。 2025 年债基规模扩张但纯债基收缩。配置上，利率债减、信用债增。全 年来看，截至 Q4，全市场公募基金总规模为 36.38 万亿元，其中债基规 模扩张 0.64 万亿元，但纯债基规模收窄 0.8 万亿元。四季度来看，在基金 规模具体变动方面，2025Q4 仅混合型基金规模较 Q3 收缩，规模回落 0.14 万亿元至 3.62 万亿元、其余类型基金均规模回升，尤其债券型基金和货 币市场型基金规模扩张幅度最大，分别增加 0.47 万亿元、0.34 万亿元至 11.03 万亿元、15.01 万亿元。在基金发行与到期方面，Q4 纯债基金（封 闭型+开放型）新发数量 11 只，发行规模为 85.45 亿元；到期数量 28 只， 到期规模为 204.98 亿元；目前来看 2026Q1 可能到期纯债基金约有 3 只， 规模在 2.82 亿元左右。券种配置方面， Q4 纯债基金的债券持仓市值占 基金总值比为 96.87%，（高于基金整体债券占比的 53.44%），相较 Q3 环比增加 0.12 个百分点，近年来整 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The pause in interest rate cuts aligns with market expectations, with no signals on the timing of the next cut, emphasizing data and economic outlook assessments[2] - The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic activity, stating it is expanding at a "robust" pace, while uncertainties remain high[2] - The employment market shows signs of stabilization, with the Fed removing previous language about rising downside risks in employment[2] Group 2: Future Leadership and Implications - Market predictions suggest Rieder has nearly a 50% chance of being nominated as the next Fed Chair, while Warsh's probability has dropped below 20%[2] - Trump's ideal candidate would be a loyal and credible dovish figure, but loyalty may take precedence over credibility[2] - If Rieder is nominated, the dollar index is expected to decline further, despite support for dollar assets[2] Group 3: Economic Risks and Projections - Risks include the potential for U.S. labor market and economic data to exceed expectations[6] - There is a risk of unexpected liquidity issues in the U.S. Treasury market[6] - Trump's policies may stimulate inflation beyond expectations[6] - The dollar index is projected to decline further in 2026, benefiting multinational corporate profits[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [2] Core Insights - Real estate data remains under pressure, but national subsidies and the expansion of the trade-in policy are driving a recovery in consumption. In 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China reached 881.01 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount reached 8393.68 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year. The number of transactions in 30 major cities increased by 50% year-on-year, with a transaction area growth of 38% [1][11] - The implementation of a 62.5 billion yuan national subsidy on January 1 has led to a rapid qualification exhaustion, and the trade-in policy now includes smart and elderly-friendly home products. Major companies like Mousse, Oppein, and Youban are exploring strategic development and transformation in the competitive stock market [1][69] Summary by Sections Industry Key Data Tracking - **Home Furnishing**: Real estate data remains under pressure, but the return of national subsidies is expected to boost downstream demand recovery [7] - **Packaging**: Stable downstream demand and continuous optimization of the competitive landscape [52] Industry News and Dynamics - **Home Furnishing**: Policies are driving a recovery in consumption, with leading home furnishing companies pushing for strategic transformation [69] - **Packaging**: Anti-involution measures are improving corporate difficulties, and digitalization is driving industry upgrades [70] Light Industry Performance in Capital Markets - **Industry Yield Performance**: From December 2025 to January 2026, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.66%, while the light industry manufacturing sector increased by 5.10%, ranking 19th among 31 sub-industries [73] - **Industry Valuation**: The valuation of the sector has slightly increased, with the PE-TTM for packaging printing, home furnishing, paper, and entertainment products at 41.74, 29.68, 32.38, and 48.91 respectively [78] Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, it is recommended to focus on Oppein and Songlin Technology; for the packaging sector, attention should be on Aorijin, Yutong Technology, and Xianggang Technology; in the toy sector, focus on Pop Mart; in the paper sector, consider Jiulong Paper and Hengfeng Paper; additionally, the expansion of HNB is expected to drive high prosperity in the tobacco-related industry chain, recommending attention to China Tobacco Hong Kong [81]

工业转型规模化：2025 年高排放行业与净零转型进展 ——报告点评 2026 年 1 月 28 日 ESG 点评报告 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 ：17394948526 ：fangjiacheng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 核心观点 分析师 马宗明 10. 【银河 ESG】全球可持续发展脉搏——应对气候 变化中企业与投资的关键审视 4. 【银河 ESG】兼顾环境的投资组合能否提高投资业 绩？ 6. 【银河 ESG】伊斯兰投资能否促进投资组合多元化 5. 【银河 ESG】动态投资风险比较：清洁能源与污染 能源 7. 【银河 ESG】绿色金融与技术创新是低碳发展的核 心动力 1.【银河 ESG】国有机构投资者是否更关注 ESG？ 8. 【银河 ESG】地缘政治、清洁能源发展与未来能源 安全 2. 【银河 ESG】董事会是否会因为企业非财务表现受 损而罢免 CEO？ 9.【银河 ESG】合力奋进，共御气候变化——碳定 价、政策联动与全球减排之路 3. 【银河 E ...

公司点评报告 · 有色金属行业 收购 Allied Gold，强化黄金板块综合实力 2026 年 1 月 27 日 核心观点 （1）马里 Sadiola 金矿一期选厂技改已基本完成，采选规模由 500 万吨/年提 升至 570 万吨/年，黄金年产量有望提升至 6.2~7.2 吨。二期投产后，项目预 计前四年平均年产金 12.4 吨，矿山生命周期内年均产金 9.3 吨，全维持成本 预计将由 25Q3 的 2,067 美元/盎司下降至 1,200 美元/盎司。 （2）科特迪瓦金矿综合体（包括 Bonikro 和 Agbaou 项目）两座金矿采选规 模均约为 250 万吨/年，拟进一步整合运营，力争实现 Bonikro 金矿年均产金 3.1 吨、Agbaou 金矿年均产金 2.7 吨的产量目标。 （3）埃塞俄比亚 Kurmuk 金矿是重要增量项目，计划于 2026 年下半年投产， 设计采选规模为 640 万吨/年，预计前四年平均年产金 9 吨，矿山生命周期内 年均产金 7.5 吨，全维持成本预计将低于 950 美元/盎司。 紫金矿业（股票代码：601899.SH） | | | 分析师 华立 ：021-2025262 ...

Economic Overview - Industrial production increased by 5.2% in December, driven by strong export growth[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a recovery, with a 0.2% increase in December compared to a decline of 1.9% in the previous year[1] - Profit margins improved slightly to 5.31%, with manufacturing sector margins continuing to show an upward trend[1] Inventory and Cost Management - Inventory levels shifted to a passive reduction, with a decrease of 6.73% in December[1] - Cost pressures remain, but there was an improvement in cash flow management, with a 3.6% increase in cash turnover[1] Profit Structure and Future Outlook - The profit structure is upgrading, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors being the main contributors to profit growth, showing increases of 7.7% and 39.8% respectively[1] - Looking ahead, industrial profit growth is expected to continue into 2025, supported by domestic demand expansion policies and potential growth in service consumption[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, particularly recommending leading passenger car companies and those involved in the intelligent and humanoid robotics supply chains [5]. Core Insights - In 2025, China's automotive sales are expected to increase by 9.4% year-on-year to 34.4 million units, with domestic sales rising by 6.7% to 27.3 million units, driven by the continued implementation of vehicle replacement policies [1][2][9]. - Exports are projected to grow by 12.1% to 7.1 million units, marking the first time exports exceed 7 million units, supported by the increasing international market influence of domestic brands and high growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) exports [2][10]. - NEV sales are anticipated to rise by 28.2% to 16.49 million units, with a penetration rate increasing by 7.0 percentage points to 47.9% [2][10]. - For 2026, automotive sales are forecasted to grow by 1% to 34.75 million units, with NEV sales expected to increase by 15.2% to 1.9 million units, supported by ongoing policy optimization and expansion in overseas markets [3][11]. Summary by Sections Sales Forecast - 2025 automotive sales are projected at 34.4 million units, with domestic sales at 27.3 million units and exports at 7.1 million units [2][10]. - NEV sales are expected to reach 16.49 million units, with a penetration rate of 47.9% [2][10]. Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing strong domestic demand and high export growth, contributing to a high level of market activity in 2025 [2][10]. - The influence of domestic brands in international markets is increasing, particularly in the NEV segment, which is driving export growth [2][10]. Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies are expected to continue providing support for the domestic automotive market in 2026, despite some adjustments in tax incentives [3][11]. - The transition to NEVs is accelerating in the commercial vehicle market, with significant achievements in overseas market expansion for domestic NEV products [2][10].

Core Insights - The ESG screening strategy achieved an excess return of 0.12% for the week ending January 23, 2026, with a total return of -2% over the last month, compared to a relative total return of -3% [1][4][7] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy underperformed, with a weekly decline of 0.86% and a total return of -3% for the last month, resulting in a relative total return of -5% [1][8][11] ESG Screening Strategy (CSI 300) - The strategy utilizes insights from the report published on December 8, 2023, which integrates ESG factors with Markowitz portfolio theory [1][4] - Weekly performance: down 0.50% against the CSI 300's decline of 0.62%, yielding an excess return of 0.12% [1][4] - Monthly performance metrics include a total return of -2%, maximum gain of 2%, maximum loss of -3%, and a Sharpe ratio of -2.44 [1][4][7] ESG Sentiment Integration Strategy (CSI 300) - This strategy is based on the report released on February 28, 2025, which also combines ESG sentiment with Markowitz portfolio theory [1][8] - Weekly performance: down 0.86% compared to the CSI 300's -0.62%, resulting in an excess return of -0.24% [1][8] - Monthly performance metrics show a total return of -3%, maximum gain of 1%, maximum loss of -4%, and a Sharpe ratio of -3.98 [1][8][11] Performance Statistics - For the ESG screening strategy, the annualized average return since inception is 19%, with a maximum drawdown of -8% and a tracking error of 1% [7] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy has an annualized average return of 27% since inception, with a maximum drawdown of -10% and a tracking error of 1% [11]