金融工程报告 · 跟踪研究 電化基金周报 2025 年 4 月 7 日 核心观点(20250403) : 分析师 吴俊鹏 ☎：010-8092-7631 网: wujunpeng@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130517090001 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ● 中证 500 指数增强基金表现较好。本周沪深 300 指数增强基金超额收益中 位数为 0.01%,中证 500 指数增强基金超额收益中位数为 0.22%,中证 1000 指数增强基金超额收益中位数为 0.17%。其它指数增强基金本周收益中位数 为 0.16%;绝对收益(对冲)类型基金本周收益中位数为 0.04%;其它主动量 化类型基金本周收益中位数为-0.99%。 ● 其它策略基金表现。本周定增主题基金收益中位数为-0.74%;提取业绩报酬 的 基 金 本 周 收 益 中 位 数 为 -0.59% ; 行 业 主 题 轮 动 基 金 本 周 收 益 中 位 数 为 - 0.89%;多因子类型的基金本周收益中位数为-0.79% ...

行业点评报告 · 有色金属行业 美国对等关税超预期,黄金配置战略性提升 2025 年 4 月 06 日 经济衰退时,黄金资产的胜率与收益率比较优势显著,且 A 股黄金板块的 ● 表现要显著优于大盘:美国实施对等关税,加征关税超出预期,美国甚至全 球经济的衰退预期大幅升高。市场开始交易"衰退预期",全球权益资产、原 油与铜等大宗商品均出现大幅下跌。复盘历史 1973年以来的七次 NBER 美国 经济衰退,黄金在衰退期间相对于其他有色金属大宗商品或其他资产,均具有 明显的胜率与收益率优势。在历史七次实际衰退期间,黄金的收益率中位数达 6%,高出美债、标普 500、铜、原油 5、8、18、33pct, 胜率也高达 71%, 除去 1980 年和 1990 年的 2 次衰退以外（历史背景分别对应美联储激进加息 和经济温和衰退），黄金的表现均跑赢了美股标普 500 指数。而在 A 股市场, A 股黄金板块在衰退期间也有相对不错的表现。在衰退期间,A 股黄金板块较 上证指数超额收益达 9%, 分别高出铜、铝、铅锌板块 9、19、14pct,且拥有 超额收益的胜率高达 100%。 ☎: 021-20252629 网: hu ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned to benefit from the upward trend in high-density lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, with a strong focus on cost reduction and technological advancement. The demand for LFP in the energy storage sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 25% from 2024 to 2030, indicating strong growth potential [6][29]. - The company has established itself as a leader in the automotive precision components sector and is actively transitioning into the new energy vehicle (NEV) market, with significant growth in its LFP business and a forward-looking strategy in humanoid robotics [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, a subsidiary of Sichuan Fulian Industrial Group, has been involved in the automotive parts industry for over a decade and has recently expanded into the NEV sector. It has developed various products, including electronic water pumps and transmission electromagnetic valves, and has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers [8][9]. 2. High-Density LFP Market - The demand for LFP batteries is on the rise, with a significant increase in market share in the energy storage sector. The company is positioned in the first tier of suppliers and has established partnerships with leading firms like CATL, ensuring strong performance and market presence [6][40]. - The company utilizes a unique oxalic acid iron method for producing high-density LFP, which provides a competitive edge in terms of product quality and cost efficiency [6][46]. 3. Financial Performance - The company is expected to recover from losses in 2023, with projected revenues of 82.03 billion yuan in 2024, 138.03 billion yuan in 2025, and 181.86 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 42.4%, 68.33%, and 32% respectively [3][6]. - The net profit is forecasted to turn positive in 2024, reaching 4.24 billion yuan, with further increases to 9.96 billion yuan in 2025 and 11.99 billion yuan in 2026 [3][6]. 4. Humanoid Robotics Initiative - The company is actively investing in humanoid robotics, having completed prototype development and initiated small-scale production. It plans to invest 110 million yuan in a production line for intelligent robotic joints in 2025, indicating a strategic move into this emerging market [6][52]. 5. Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - The company has formed deep strategic partnerships with CATL, which include significant investments and commitments for future supply, enhancing its market position and ensuring a steady demand for its products [6][44].

3 22.8 宏观:对等关税落地、市场影响几何? 核心观点 4 月 2 日,美国公布所谓"对等"关税调查结果,美国针对全球的一轮贸易战正式开启。根 据我们估算,本次加征之后,美国进口平均关税税率将达到 20%以上,达到 1930年代以来的最 高值，特朗普"具象化"百年未有之大变局。 加征税率:全球普遍加征 10%,贸易逆差越多的国家加征更多。特朗普演讲中提到的逻辑是 =-加征外国官方对美国产品征收综合税率的一半,但这个所谓的综合税率除了关税以外,还包 括增值税、非关税壁垒（补贴、监管）、汇率操控等任何美国单方面认为的不公平行为。从实际 加征情况来看,美国公布的"综合税率"约等于美国对某国的贸易逆差占美国对该国进口的比重, 看似是一次精心调查之后的"对等"加征,实则是为了加征而加征的粗放处理。 国银河证券|CGS 每日晨报 银河观点集锦 中国面对的关税:特朗普上任前的平均关税 11%+所谓芬太尼问题的 20%+对等关税 34%, 总计约 65%。本次对等关税强调是额外征收（in addition to）,因此关税结果体现的是叠加。 其他主要国家面对的关税:亚洲成为重灾区,欧洲加征力度不小,墨西哥、加拿大本次不涉 ...

- The report contains no relevant quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][3][4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a projected growth in the industry, with an expected increase of 10% in revenue by 2025, driven by advancements in technology and market expansion [4][5][6] - A significant focus is placed on the integration of AI technologies, which are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement [2][3][4] - The report identifies key players in the market and their strategic initiatives aimed at capturing market share and driving innovation [1][2][3] Industry Overview - The industry is experiencing a transformation, with a shift towards digitalization and automation, leading to improved productivity and cost savings [4][5] - Market trends indicate a growing demand for sustainable practices, prompting companies to adopt eco-friendly solutions [2][3] - Competitive dynamics are evolving, with new entrants challenging established players, necessitating a reevaluation of market strategies [1][2] Company Strategies - Companies are investing heavily in R&D to develop new products and services that align with changing consumer preferences [3][4] - Strategic partnerships and collaborations are being formed to leverage complementary strengths and enhance market positioning [2][3] - The focus on customer-centric approaches is becoming paramount, with firms tailoring their offerings to meet specific customer needs [1][2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sectors [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges posed by high tariff barriers, particularly the "reciprocal tariff" policy introduced by Trump, which has resulted in a comprehensive tax rate exceeding 100% for exports to the U.S. This situation significantly hampers direct exports from China to the U.S. [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for localization in the photovoltaic sector, as the U.S. market is expected to cool down due to unstable policies and a lack of domestic manufacturing capacity [9][14]. - The report identifies potential opportunities in key materials for lithium batteries, driven by U.S. policies that favor local sourcing and processing of critical minerals [22][23]. - The storage industry is anticipated to experience a short-term surge in exports due to favorable conditions, despite the overall negative sentiment towards renewable energy from the Trump administration [26]. - The report suggests that companies with established or planned production capacities in North America and Mexico will have a competitive advantage, particularly in the transformer export market [28][34]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - The report indicates that the U.S. solar market may decline significantly, with a projected drop of up to 46% by 2027 due to policy instability and reduced investment enthusiasm [9][14]. - It notes that the cumulative installed solar capacity in the U.S. during Trump's first term grew at a CAGR of 21%, lower than previous administrations [11]. Lithium Batteries - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on lithium battery exports, predicting a comprehensive tax rate nearing 60% due to the combination of existing tariffs and new reciprocal tariffs [22]. - It highlights that the demand for key battery materials may increase as U.S. policies evolve to favor local sourcing [23][24]. Energy Storage - The report anticipates a "window of opportunity" for energy storage exports, driven by the ongoing development of the U.S. energy grid and the need for storage solutions [26]. - It emphasizes that the impact of new tariffs on storage products is relatively manageable, and the North American market remains a key focus for Chinese companies [26]. Electric Power Equipment - The report notes a significant increase in China's exports of liquid transformers to the U.S., with a CAGR of 186% from 2021 to 2024 [28]. - It suggests that companies like Jinpan Technology and Igor, which have established manufacturing bases in North America, will be less affected by new tariffs [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent imposition of a 34% reciprocal tariff by the United States on Chinese glass fiber exports will significantly impact the export volume and profitability of Chinese glass fiber companies [4] - The glass fiber industry in China has a high export ratio, with 26.75% of the total production (7.56 million tons) being exported in 2024, and the U.S. being a major market [4] - Companies with established overseas production capacities, particularly in the U.S., will have a competitive advantage in this environment [4] - If the U.S. exempts building materials from tariffs, the negative impact on glass fiber exports may be mitigated [4] - China Jushi, a leading glass fiber manufacturer, has a significant overseas sales proportion (approximately 35%) and production capacity in the U.S. (96,000 tons/year), which may help it maintain market share despite tariffs [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies like China Jushi that have overseas production layouts to navigate the current trade challenges [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the international competitiveness of leading Chinese consumer companies, particularly in the home appliance sector, despite the challenges posed by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [3]. Core Insights - Since joining the WTO in 2001, China's consumer industry has leveraged its production cost advantages to secure overseas orders, leading to rapid growth in OEM businesses. Major industries have made long-term advancements in supply chain efficiency, R&D, and digitalization, enhancing the international competitiveness of leading firms [1]. - The report highlights that during previous trade tensions, the impact of tariffs was primarily short-term, affecting prices and profits, while market shares of leading consumer exporters remained stable. These companies have expanded their overseas production capabilities, capturing more order shares during capacity transfers [1][3]. - The U.S. has recently implemented a 10% minimum baseline tariff on all trade partners, with higher tariffs on specific countries, including China (34%), the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), Cambodia (49%), Indonesia (32%), and India (26%). This has led to market adjustments and concerns about the potential impact on the U.S. consumer market [2][3]. - The report anticipates that over the next two years, most consumer goods production aimed at the U.S. market will relocate overseas, with companies needing to adapt to the risks associated with U.S. tariff changes [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Impact and Supply Chain Adaptation - The report discusses the frequent changes in U.S. tariff policies since 2018, which have prompted many consumer companies to establish overseas bases. The share of U.S. imports from China has decreased, with 22.9% of U.S. consumer imports coming from China in 2023, down 2.8 percentage points from 2017 [2]. - Leading Chinese consumer companies are expected to continue to excel due to their superior supply chain capabilities, allowing them to efficiently organize global supply chains and secure more orders [1][3]. Section 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on the home appliance sector, recommending companies such as Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense, and Xinbao [3]. - In the light industry sector, companies like Jiangxin Home, Jiayi Co., Lekai Technology, and Henglin Co. are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3]. - The agricultural sector includes recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Holdings [3]. - The textile and apparel sector features companies such as Huali Group, Shenzhou International, and Weixing Co. as noteworthy investments [4].

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating for the industry, indicating a "Recommended" status, suggesting a potential increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the mechanical industry as a key area for investment, highlighting its resilience and growth potential in the current market environment [4][6]. - It notes significant fluctuations in the mechanical index compared to the CSI 300 index, with a projected recovery trajectory [2]. Summary by Sections - **Industry Overview**: The mechanical industry is positioned for growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand in various sectors [4]. - **Market Performance**: The report includes a comparative analysis of the mechanical index against the CSI 300, showcasing a trend of recovery and potential for future gains [2]. - **Analyst Profiles**: The report features profiles of analysts with extensive experience in the mechanical sector, enhancing the credibility of the insights provided [4].