摒弃"难减排"标签：高碳行业科学脱碳的关键前提 ——报告点评 2026 年 2 月 6 日 核心观点 分析师 马宗明 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 ：17394948526 ：fangjiacheng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 1.【银河 ESG】国有机构投资者是否更关注 ESG？ 2. 【银河 ESG】董事会是否会因为企业非财务表现受 损而罢免 CEO？ 3. 【银河 ESG】聚焦 ESG 分歧的指数增强策略能否 带来超额收益？ 4. 【银河 ESG】兼顾环境的投资组合能否提高投资业 绩？ 7. 【银河 ESG】绿色金融与技术创新是低碳发展的核 心动力 8. 【银河 ESG】地缘政治、清洁能源发展与未来能源 安全 9.【银河 ESG】合力奋进，共御气候变化——碳定 价、政策联动与全球减排之路 10. 【银河 ESG】全球可持续发展脉搏——应对气候 变化中企业与投资的关键审视 11. 【银河 ESG】绿色金融研究：理论与实践的系统 性综述 12. 【银河 ES ...

Market Performance - On February 3, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index rose by 3.27%, closing at 1,549.51 points[1] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange was 21.55 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 3.28%[1] - The North Exchange's total market capitalization reached 937.94 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 583.40 billion CNY[1] Sector Performance - All sectors on the North Exchange experienced gains, with the top performers being Communication (+5.1%), Computer (+3.6%), and Oil & Petrochemicals (+3.5%)[1] - Among the 292 listed companies, 273 saw an increase in stock price, while 18 declined[1] Stock Highlights - The top gainer was *ST Yun Chuang, which surged by 30.00%, followed by Liancheng CNC (+18.18%) and Gebijia (+13.91%)[1] - The largest trading volumes were recorded by Liancheng CNC (1.634 billion CNY), Hengtong Light (999.5 million CNY), and Liujin Technology (964 million CNY)[1] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange stood at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47.90 times, which is higher than the ChiNext's P/E of 45.85 times[1] - The highest average P/E ratios by sector on the North Exchange were in Non-ferrous Metals (138.1 times), followed by Communication (89.7 times) and Food & Beverage (87.9 times)[1] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[1][17]

策略研究 · 策略专题 2025 年业绩预告有哪些线索值得关注？ 2026 年 02 月 02 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-80927696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 王雪莹 ：（010）80927721 ：wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 周美丽 ：zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 相关研究 2026-01-23，公募基金 2025 年四季度持仓有哪些 看点？ 2026-01-06，如何理解"非理性繁荣"下的"理性 泡沫" ？——AI 泡沫系列研究之总量篇 2025-12-28，节奏看"水"，集中靠"质"——2026 年港股市场投资展望 2025-12-11，2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议对投 资的启示：向新向优 2025-12-08，12 月中央政 ...

ESG 策略周度报告 本周 ESG 策略小幅回撤 ——ESG 策略周度报告（20260130） 2026 年 2 月 2 日 核心观点 分析师 马宗明 2.【银河 ESG】穿越市场周期变幻：ESG 舆情整合策 略新径 3.【银河 ESG】本周 ESG 舆情整合策略超额收益为 5.94%——ESG 策略周度报告（20250419） 4.【银河 ESG】本周 ESG 舆情整合策略超额收益为 0.79%——ESG 策略周度报告（20250425） ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 相关研究 1.【银河 ESG】厚积薄发，志存高远——ESG 投资策 略解析与优化构建 5.【银河 ESG】本周 ESG 评级下调数居多，策略有 所回撤——ESG 策略周度报告（20250430） 6. 【银河 ESG】本周 ESG 舆情整合策略绝对收益为 2.16%——ESG 策略周度报告（20250510） www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ...

Group 1: Export Growth and Economic Outlook - China's export growth is projected to be 5.4% in 2026, slightly down from 5.5% in 2025, driven by resilient export competitiveness and market diversification[1] - Global economic growth is forecasted to be between 2.6% and 3.3% in 2026, a slight decline from 2025, indicating a fragile recovery[2] - Leading indicators suggest that China's exports will remain strong in the first half of 2026, despite external demand uncertainties[2] Group 2: Global Trade Environment - The number of global trade restrictions has reached a historical high from 2020 to 2025, reversing decades of trade liberalization trends[2] - In 2026, while the intensity of the "tariff war" may ease, targeted restrictions are expected to proliferate, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism and the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on specific semiconductors[2][10] - Global merchandise trade volume showed a monthly average growth rate of 4.4% as of November 2025, a significant rebound from 0.9% in 2023[2][16] Group 3: China's Supply Chain Dominance - China accounted for 14.6% of global exports and 28% of global manufacturing GDP in 2024, indicating its dominant position in the global supply chain[3][23] - From 2019 to 2024, China captured 28.9% of the new export markets in the fastest-growing sectors, significantly higher than its overall export share[4][25] - China's export competitiveness in high-tech products, such as semiconductors and industrial robots, has improved, with its share in global robot exports rising from 11.3% in 2017 to nearly parity with Germany by 2024[5][27] Group 4: Export Market Diversification - In 2025, China's export share to the U.S. decreased by 3.5 percentage points, while shares to ASEAN and the EU increased by 1.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively[5][30] - Direct investment in Belt and Road countries surged from 5.4% in 2024 to 18.4% in the first eleven months of 2025, enhancing China's international standards and technology influence[5][30] - Despite trade tensions, China's trade surplus with other economies has increased, indicating a stable position in global supply chains[5][31]

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to significant market fluctuations and a rebound in the U.S. dollar[1] - Warsh's focus on supply-side reforms and a strong dollar concept may lead to a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts, despite expectations for a reduction[1] - The market is currently pricing in the risks associated with Warsh's potential balance sheet reduction strategy[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic consumption has shown stability, with subway passenger volume increasing by 1.3% year-on-year, while the number of domestic flights decreased by 1.4%[2] - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded a decline to 51.7%, indicating a potential slowdown in production activity[3] - The average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.4% week-on-week, while vegetable prices fell by 0.8%[4] Group 3: Inflation and Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.5%, while Brent crude increased by 1.3% amid geopolitical tensions[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed results, with some industrial product prices experiencing volatility due to fluctuating demand and supply conditions[6] - Consumer price index (CPI) data indicated a decrease in vegetable prices, while egg prices continued to rise due to supply constraints[4] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Government Debt - Local governments issued new general bonds totaling 45.6 billion yuan, with a significant increase in special bonds issuance[8] - The total outstanding local government debt surpassed 56 trillion yuan, reflecting proactive fiscal measures to support economic growth[8]

分析师 陶贻功 ☎：010-80927673 行业点评报告 · 公用事业行业 源装机创新高,用电量结构优化 -- 2025年全年电力数据点评 2026年1月 30 日 公用事亦 推荐 维持评级 网: taoyigong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030001 梁悠南 ☎：010-80927656 网: liangyounan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：s0130523070002 研究助理:马敏 z: mamin_yj @chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-1-30 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 【银河环保公用】行业点评_风光装机增速分化,用 电量增速放缓 【银河环保公用】行业点评_水电电量降幅扩大，用 电量增速放缓 【银河环保公用】行业点评_风光新增装机下滑，用 电量增速加快 【银河环保公用】行业点评_太阳能单月装机创新高, 火电发电量由降转增 【银河环保公用】行业点评_太阳能装机持续高增长, 水核发电量增速下降 www.chinastock.com.c ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing an upward cycle driven by AI, with an acceleration in domestic production processes [1] - The report highlights significant price increases in DRAM and NAND Flash, with DRAM prices expected to rise over 60% in Q1 2026, leading to a projected annual market value of $404.3 billion, a 144% increase [5] - NAND Flash prices are anticipated to grow by 55-60% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a global market value of $147.3 billion in 2026, a 112% year-on-year growth [5] - Major companies like SanDisk and Texas Instruments are reporting substantial revenue growth, with SanDisk's Q2 revenue reaching $3.025 billion, up 61% year-on-year, and Texas Instruments' Q4 revenue at $4.423 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year [5] - ASML's financial performance is strong, with a net sales figure of €9.7 billion in Q4 2025 and an expected annual net sales range of €34-39 billion for 2026 [5] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, and Lanke Technology due to improving performance driven by rising storage prices [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a slight increase of 0.08%, while the electronic sector declined by 2.51%, with the semiconductor industry down by 0.90% [5] Digital Chip Design - Trendforce forecasts a significant increase in DRAM prices and market value, indicating a robust demand in the digital chip design sector [5] Analog Chip Design - Texas Instruments reported a mixed performance with a year-on-year revenue growth of 10% in Q4 2025, highlighting the resilience of the analog chip market [5] Semiconductor Equipment - ASML's strong order book and sales figures indicate a healthy demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, particularly EUV lithography machines [5] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of AI investments from leading internet companies, suggesting that this trend will continue to drive semiconductor demand and performance [5]

宏观专题报告 美联储将迎来供给侧改⾰者 !如何理解 Warsh（沃什）的货币政策框架？ 2026 年 1 ⽉ 31 ⽇ （ü）美联储资产负债表和 QE：Warsh 历来批评量化宽松（QE），但这不意味着他就 任后会⼤规模的对美联储持有的各种资 产进⾏缩 减。结合其对货币、财 政、通 胀 间关系 的理解来看，缩表的本质还是 为了更好的进⾏降 息， 并控制通胀预期。 （ß）货币与财政的关系：Warsh 认为财政部在尊重货币政策的前提 下应和美联储协 作，以清晰而审慎地向市场描述未来的资产负债表规模和所期望实现的⽬标。但同时， 美联储与财政部的合作也可能意味着，如果没有 Bessent 的 同意与配合，Warsh 也不 会开启⼤规模的量化紧缩。 （´）通 胀 ：对 于 Warsh 来说，" 通 胀 是 ⼀种选择"。其关于缩表的论述本质上是为了 通 过 控 制货币 数 量 和稳定通胀预期来 控 制通胀 ， 也 即缩表有利于通胀预期的稳定。 Warsh 并不会因为担忧近期的通胀⻛险而拒绝降 息， 他也表达过 在 AI 提升⽣ 产效率 的情况下，这类进步会在通胀稳定下⽀持更⾼的增⻓。 （Æ）⾦ 融 监 管 ：Warsh ...

北交所日报 北交所日报（2026.01.30） 2026 年 01 月 30 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-01-30 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2026 年度策略_ 小而美美到"小 美久到，推动北证高质量发展 2. 【银河北交所】小十五五到：北交所引领中而企业 再进阶 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度中期策略_并购协同促 新格局，提质扩容迎新供给 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 ⚫ 1 月 30 日，北证 50 涨跌幅为-0.29%，收于 1,531.55 点。同日，北证 专精特新指数收于 2,571.08 点，涨跌幅为-0.29%；上证指数收于 ...