Investment Strategy - The urban renewal action plan outlines eight main tasks aimed at improving urban infrastructure and housing quality, with a focus on high-quality supply rather than extensive investment[2] - Key investment areas include the renovation of existing buildings, upgrading old residential communities, and enhancing urban infrastructure, particularly underground pipeline systems[6][7] Financial Projections - Historical spending on dangerous housing renovations peaked at 53.6 billion CNY annually during the 2015-2019 period, decreasing to 9.3 billion CNY by 2022[8][10] - Current estimates suggest that annual investment in dangerous housing renovations may be below 50 billion CNY[8] Funding Sources - The action plan specifies diverse funding sources, including budgetary investments, long-term special bonds, local government bonds, and various financial institution loans[11] - The primary funding source is expected to be government bonds, with some funds already allocated to urban renewal projects this year[11] Economic Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, misinterpretation of policy implications, and unexpected declines in the real estate market[19]

- The report highlights the performance of index-enhanced funds, with the CSI 500 index-enhanced funds showing the highest weekly excess return median of 0.16%, followed by CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds at 0.12%, and CSI 300 index-enhanced funds at -0.04%[2][3][4] - Other index-enhanced funds had a weekly return median of 0.24%, with the best weekly performance reaching 4.24% and the worst at -3.33%[3][6] - Absolute return (hedge) funds had a weekly return median of 0.09%, with the best weekly performance at 0.63% and the worst at -0.34%[6][7] - Active quantitative funds showed a weekly return median of 1.90%, with the best weekly performance at 7.27% and the worst at -3.19%[6][7] - Multi-factor funds demonstrated a weekly return median of 2.20%, with the best weekly performance at 2.95% and the worst at 0.57%[19][22] - Big data-driven active investment funds had a weekly return median of 1.91%, with the best weekly performance at 4.18% and the worst at -1.61%[20][22] - Sector rotation funds had a weekly return median of 1.30%, with the best weekly performance at 4.37% and the worst at -1.55%[18] - Funds extracting performance fees had a weekly return median of 0.79%, with the best weekly performance at 3.66% and the worst at -4.41%[15][17] - Thematic funds focused on private placements had a weekly return median of 0.70%, with the best weekly performance at 3.65% and the worst at -2.98%[14]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading internet companies in the AI sector, indicating a positive investment outlook for companies like Tencent and Alibaba [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the film industry, with April box office revenues at 1.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.49% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.77% [4][16]. - The gaming market continues to grow, with March 2025 sales revenue at 26.692 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.99% despite a month-on-month decline of 4.45% [4][49]. - The advertising market saw a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year in March 2025, with notable growth in categories like entertainment and personal care [4][5]. - The launch of GPT-4.1 has significantly enhanced programming capabilities, indicating a rapid advancement in AI technology [4][5]. Market Overview - The media industry index fell by 2.23% in April 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 1.70% [6][8]. - The overall media sector is experiencing a downturn, with various sub-sectors like film and television broadcasting showing significant declines [7][8]. Sub-industry Data Tracking Film Industry - The film market is cooling down, with a notable lack of blockbuster films leading to a decline in overall box office performance [4][16]. - "Nezha 2" continues to show a long-tail effect, contributing 210 million yuan to the box office, accounting for approximately 19.8% of total revenues [4][16]. Gaming Industry - The gaming market remains robust, with mobile games generating 19.814 billion yuan in March 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.88% [4][49]. - Client games also showed growth, with a market size of 5.589 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.09% [4][49]. Advertising Industry - The advertising market is undergoing adjustments, with a 1.5% year-on-year increase in March 2025, particularly in entertainment and personal care sectors [4][5]. AI Industry - The rapid development of AI technology is highlighted, with the introduction of new models like GPT-4.1, which enhances programming capabilities significantly [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading internet companies that are embracing AI, such as Tencent and Alibaba, which are expected to see a revaluation of their value due to advancements in AI technology [4][5]. - In the film sector, companies like Wanda Film and Huayi Brothers are suggested for their potential in leveraging high-value IPs [4][5].

Key Insights - The report highlights the effective outcomes of the recent China-US trade talks, with a focus on the potential benefits for the optical communication and IoT sectors due to reduced tariffs [12][13] - The easing of tariff pressures is expected to restore confidence in the consumer electronics sector, particularly benefiting companies in the Apple supply chain and leading passive component manufacturers [15][17] - The construction machinery sector shows a mixed performance, with domestic excavator sales growth slowing in April, but overall positive trends in exports and improving operational quality among leading manufacturers [19][22] Macro Insights - The US CPI data for April indicates a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with core CPI at 2.8%, suggesting that inflationary pressures are stabilizing [2][3] - The report anticipates that inflation will rise in the latter half of the year, potentially reaching 3.0%-3.5% due to tariff impacts, although immediate effects remain muted [4][5] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to delay interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two cuts later in the year [6][5] Communication Sector - The deployment of 5G-A networks across 31 provinces in China is progressing, enhancing capacity, speed, latency, and reliability compared to 5G [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-reliance and independence in the communication industry, with a well-established domestic optical communication supply chain poised to benefit from reduced tariff impacts [13] Electronics Sector - The recent trade agreement has led to a significant reduction in tariffs on electronic components, providing a temporary reprieve for companies exporting to the US [15][16] - The report notes a recovery in market confidence within the electronics sector, although competition is expected to intensify as international players increase their presence in the Chinese market [16] Machinery Sector - April data shows a year-on-year increase of 17.6% in domestic excavator sales, although growth rates have slowed compared to previous months [19] - Leading manufacturers are experiencing improved profitability and operational quality, with significant cash flow increases reported [22][23] Light Industry - The home furnishing sector is showing signs of recovery, with government subsidies contributing to improved performance in Q1 2025 [26] - The packaging industry is witnessing steady performance from leading companies despite competitive pressures, with expectations for improved market dynamics [27]

2025 年 5 月 15 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 每日晨报 宏观：CPI 尚未明显反映关税,但高频价格已经有所上行——4月美国 CPI 数 ● 据。市场对通胀数据反应有限,降息预期延后与通胀回升风险导致美债收益率 近期上行。我们认为长端美债收益率在财政赤字难以明显压缩、降息预期可能 延后等因素下短期存在回升的风险,尽管从全年角度来看,其依然有中枢降至 4%下方的可能,也不排除流动性风险导致美联储干预债市的可能。美元指数 方面,在美国经济放缓且最终仍需进行降息的情况下,其短期的反弹可持续性 同样不高,预计美元年内的中枢仍会稳定在 100下方。 CGS-NDI 跟踪：我国加速部署 5G-A 测试网络。我国运营商已经在国内 31 0 个省份部署了 5G-A 测试网络,5G-A 和 5G 相比,能够在容量、速率、时延、 定位、可靠性等方面实现大幅提升。 0 通信:经贸会谈卓有成效,出口链或将优先受益。经贸高层会谈卓有成效,预 计出口占比较高的光通信及物联网行业将 ...

2025 年 5 月 14 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 美国 4 月 CPI 同比增长 2.3% 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 策略：关税缓和信号下哪些板块有望受益?对 A 股市场的投资启示：本轮协 ● 议的达成释放出中美经贸关系缓和的积极信号,降低了贸易方面的不确定性, 有助于推动市场避险情绪降温,提振投资者情绪。同时,贸易摩擦对国内经济 增长的潜在压力缓解,企业盈利预期有望上修,特别是对于出口依赖度较高的 行业,经营环境短期内迎来明显改善。这有望带动 A 股市场估值进一步修复。 但长期来看,本轮协议是中美谈判的阶段性成果,暂停实施的 24%关税仅生 效 90 天,且 20%的芬太尼关税仍未取消,后续关税政策走向存在反复性和不 确定性,仍需保持密切关注。 ● 滑费:关税冲击影响跟踪,柳暗花明又一村。短期建议关注受美国市场影响较 小的公司,以及虽然美国市场业务较多,但是 ...

宏观动态报告 浮现宽货币,等待宽信用 2025 年 4 月金融数据解读 2025 年 5 月 14 日,央行发布 2025 年 4 月 金融数据, 4 月 M1 同比 1.5% ( 前 ● 值 1.6%），M2 同比 8.0%（前值 7.0%）。新增社融 1.16 万亿元,同比多增 1.22 万亿元，社融增速 8.7%（前值 8.4%）。金融机构新增人民币贷款 2800 浮现宽货币:我们认为 4 月的金融数据呈现比较明显的宽货币特征,M2 重回 8%,4 月全球贸易政策不确定性显著上升,不可避免对企业和居民预期带来 冲击,但衡量信心的 M1 仅小幅滑落并未失速。适度宽松基调下,央行展现保 持金融总量充裕的政策意图,2025年信贷供给侧的发力已比较明确。 等待宽信用:在 4 月的金融数据中,我们尚未找到宽信用链条已经建立的证 据,从政府融资前置到政府支出加快,再到拉动私人部门信用扩张的循环尚未 建立,宽信用仍然需要等待。我们认为在价格水平低位运行的背景下,货币政 策的传导效果部分被稀释。政策性金融工具和 PSL 有望在二季度适时推出协 同发力,这将有助于增加货币政策的传导效果,实现宽信用。 货币供应量数据: M ...

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 -40% ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.05.14) ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 ■ 0 -5 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.05.14) ■成交金额（合计/亿元) =换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-19 04-15 05-14 02-13 0518 02-26 03-03 03-06 03-11 03-14 03-24 03-27 04-01 04-07 04-10 04-18 04-28 05-06 05-09 01-23 02-05 02-10 04-23 01- 01 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 可证券|CGS 北交所日报 今日涨跌 ...

责任编辑 2025 年 5 月 14 日 银河观点集萃 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 美国 4 月 CPI 同比增长 2.3% 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 策略：关税缓和信号下哪些板块有望受益?对 A 股市场的投资启示：本轮协 ● 议的达成释放出中美经贸关系缓和的积极信号,降低了贸易方面的不确定性, 有助于推动市场避险情绪降温,提振投资者情绪。同时,贸易摩擦对国内经济 增长的潜在压力缓解,企业盈利预期有望上修,特别是对于出口依赖度较高的 行业,经营环境短期内迎来明显改善。这有望带动 A 股市场估值进一步修复。 但长期来看,本轮协议是中美谈判的阶段性成果,暂停实施的 24%关税仅生 效 90 天,且 20%的芬太尼关税仍未取消,后续关税政策走向存在反复性和不 确定性,仍需保持密切关注。 ● 滑费:关税冲击影响跟踪,柳暗花明又一村。短期建议关注受美国市场影响较 小的公司,以及虽然美国市场业务较多,但是 ...

2025年5月 13 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布 每日晨报 一、贸易谈判取得阶段性成果。其一，美国对中国加征"对等关税"34%的部分,在 90 天 内按照 10%征收, 相当于与其他国家保持一致。中国对美国对等反制的 34%关税在初始的 90 天 同样按照 10%征收。其二,双方后续"报复性"增加的合计 91%关税取消。其三,所谓"芬太 尼问题"导致的 20%关税在本次声明未明确提及。简言之,这次声明发布会后的 90天内,中美 双方降低的关税幅度均为 115%。 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:日内瓦联合声明,怎么看? 贸易谈判取得阶段性成果。其一,美国对 中国加征"对等关税"34%的部分,在 90天内按照 10%征收,相当于与其他 国家保持一致。中国对美国对等反制的 34%关税在初始的 90天同样按照 10% 征收。其二,双方后续"报 ...