宏观动态报告 货币先行,多箭齐发 -2025 年 5 月 7 日国新办新闻发布会解读 总量型政策是从数量到价格的全面宽松。数量工具方面,全面降准 50BP,预 计将向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿,并节约银行资金成本约 220 亿元,提 升银行净息差约 1.3BP,为降息创造空间;价格工具方面,下调政策利率 10BP, 预计 1 年期和 5 年期 LPR 将在 5 月报价日同步下行 10BP。 结构型政策也是从数量到价格的全面发力,聚焦科技、消费、外贸、债市、楼 市、股市。数量工具方面,实施定向降准,将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的 存款准备金率调降至 0%，这将推动汽车消费信贷投放，从而支持汽车消费; 价格工具方面,调降结构型货币政策工具利率(包括 PSL)25BP,预计每年 可节约银行资金成本大概 150-200 亿元。 科技:多聚并措支持科创企业。本次发布会从多维度、多渠道加大对科创企 ● 业支持力度。具体来看,本次会议对科创企业支持措施包括:1、将科技创新 和技术改造再贷款额度增加至 8000亿元;2、大力发展科技创新债券,创设 科技创新债券风险分担工具,通过"共保体"完善保险补偿机制;3、将发起 设立 ...

要闻 美国 4 月 ISM 服务业指数 51.6 每日晨报 2025年5月6日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:黄金进入震荡期,等待美联储降息。黄金突破区间可能需等待美联储降 息或实物黄金需求爆发。未来需要进一步观察美国经济情况,是滞胀还是衰退, 如果出现滞胀并且美联储并未降息,那么黄金大概率呈现震荡向上。如果进入 衰退,黄金会跟随其他大宗商品回调,直至美联储启动降息。黄金的震荡区间 已经被系统性的提升到 3150 美元至 3550 美元,美联储降息后黄金有望上行 至 3700 美元以上。另外,实物黄金需求旺盛或使得下半年黄金再次上行。 宏观:美国滥施关税影响初步显现——2025年4月 PMI 分析。我们认为政府 ● 债的发行使用将加快,对科技、消费和外贸三个方向重点支持。映射到投资上, 短期经济结构性的特征依旧明显,新质生产力相关行业表现更好,政策支持 ...

F # CGS 预调酒韧性发展,威士忌销售起步 2024 年度和 2025Q1 业绩点评 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3048.13 | 3749.29 | 4628.63 | 5574.47 | | 收入增长率% | -6.61 | 23.00 | 23.45 | 20.43 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 719.14 | 806.64 | 1051.92 | 1358.54 | | 利润增速% | -11.15 | 12.17 | 30.41 | 29.15 | | 毛利率% | 69.67 | 71.17 | 72.12 | 73.08 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 0.69 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.29 | | PE | 40.87 | 33.95 | 26.04 | 20.16 | | PB | 6.27 | 5.40 | 4.71 | 4.05 | | PS | 8.99 | 7.30 | 5.92 | 4.91 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Sailun Tire (601058.SH) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated robust performance with a global expansion strategy, achieving record tire production and sales in 2024, with revenue of 31.802 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.063 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 22.42% and 31.42% respectively [3][4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.411 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.039 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 15.29% and 0.47% respectively [3] - The company’s tire production and sales reached historical highs in 2024, with production and sales volumes of 74.8111 million and 72.1558 million tires, marking increases of 27.59% and 29.34% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of tires decreased by 4.19% to 422.78 yuan per tire, while the gross profit margin remained stable at 27.58% [3] - The report highlights the ongoing global capacity expansion, with production bases established in various countries, including Vietnam and Cambodia, and new projects in Mexico and Indonesia expected to commence by 2025 [3][4] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is 36.637 billion, 41.238 billion, and 45.063 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 4.237 billion, 5.209 billion, and 5.891 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 4.28%, 22.95%, and 13.10% respectively [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.29, 1.58, and 1.79 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.51, 7.73, and 6.84 [4][6] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to slightly decline to 25.28% in 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to be 11.56% [6]

公司点评报告 ·建材行业 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 25821.12 | 29512.92 | 32931.62 | 35270.03 | | 收入增长率% | 15.14 | 14.30 | 11.58 | 7.10 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3646.94 | 4479.58 | 5192.93 | 5740.55 | | 利润增速% | 3.49 | 22.83 | 15.92 | 10.55 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 2.16 | 2.65 | 3.07 | 3.40 | | PE | 13.15 | 10.70 | 9.23 | 8.35 | | 1/89 11/2 - 1/2 - 1/2 - /\ == /\ H+ | and and for the state of 3 met ML T TT rear Promote | | | | 资料来源：公司公告,中国银河证券研究院 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 | (0007 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 核电软管、数据中心液冷软管、超高压食品灭菌设备新品布局多点开花: ● 2024年,公司的多个新品布局实现了阶段性进展。在核电领域,公司 2024年 度完成 43 种核电软管(核电液压软管 28 种、核电空气(蒸汽)软管 7 种、核 电重水(悬链)软管8种)的试制,目前研发团队正在按计划推进相关工作, 加快推进核电软管的进口替代;在数据中心领域,公司的数据中心液冷软管目 前已给客户提供部分样品,同时根据具体应用要求,对产品部分特殊性能进行 不断优化和完善;在食品应用方面,公司首台超高压食品灭菌设备已在客户现 场安装到位,客户正开展试生产与调试工作,公司产品可广泛用于果蔬汁、肉 制品、宠物食品、药品、生物制品等领域的灭菌保鲜。 0 投资建议:我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 1.25/1.44/1.67 亿 元,同比分别增长 16.30%/ 15.70%/ 16.10%, 对应市盈率分别为 18/16/13 倍。我们认为,公司的主要产品液压橡胶软管、工业管、软管总成市场空间广 阔,海洋工程软管市场、核电软管、数据中心液冷软管、超高压食品灭菌设备 利通科技(83 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company Shengda Resources [1]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by rising metal prices and the completion of technical upgrades, which are expected to enhance production capacity [1]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.66%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 360 million yuan, an increase of 163.56% [4]. - The company is expected to see significant increases in silver and gold production in 2025 due to the completion of upgrades at its Jinshan Mining and the commencement of production at the Caiyuanzi Copper Gold Mine [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.92%, and a net profit of 8.28 million yuan, compared to a loss of 8.78 million yuan in the same period last year [4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [4]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.02 billion yuan, 4.23 billion yuan, and 4.56 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 50.10%, 39.97%, and 7.73% [6]. Production and Market Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in metal production, with silver output expected to rise to 177 tons in 2025 and 236 tons in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 28.3% and 33.1% respectively [5]. - Gold production is projected to increase dramatically, reaching 707 kg in 2025 and 1,358 kg in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 461.0% and 92.1% [5]. - The completion of technical upgrades at Jinshan Mining is expected to enhance the company's production capabilities significantly [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 625 million yuan in 2025, 983 million yuan in 2026, and 1.10 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.30, and 1.45 [6]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 15.53, 10.80, and 9.67, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6].

⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 7 6 5 4 3 2 l 0 -1 -2 -3 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 ■成交金额（合计/亿元) •换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 2 2017 23 20 32 - 322 03-23 Ox.O> Ox 02-05- 0:51 03:57:3 Ox 10 Ox 1,0 01-05 03-2-2 ","s 01:10 01:20 ing St 01-02 01-15 01:23 ar 2 o 25 O3, Ja fift 图1：北证成交额与换手率情况（截至 2025.04.30) 北交所日报 2 □国银河证券|CGS 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.04.30) 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 河证券|CGS 北交所日报 表 ...

# CGS 公司深度报告 · 化工行业 2025-04-25 相对沪深 300 表现图 芦田股份 120% 100% 80% 600% 400% 资料来源:iFind,中国银河证券研究院 芭田股份首次覆盖报告 2025 年 4 月 27 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3313.11 | 4941.22 | 5395.38 | 5926.05 | | 增长率% | 2.15 | 49.14 | 9.19 | 9.84 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 409.14 | 1156.97 | 1408.35 | 1645.34 | | 增长率% | 57.67 | 182.78 | 21.73 | 16.83 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 0.42 | 1.20 | 1.46 | 1.71 | | PE | 23.50 | 8.31 | 6.83 | 5.84 | 资料来源：iFind，中国银河证券研究院 | 市场数据 | 2025-04-25 | ...

保持稳健增长态势,规模跃居行业第三 2024 年度和 2025Q1 业绩点评 2025 年 04月 30 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 36010.99 | 39328.45 | 43202.18 | 46878.90 | | 收入增长率% | 12.79 | 9.21 | 9.85 | 8.51 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 12242.88 | 13104.64 | 14532.14 | 15822.83 | | 利润增速% | 17.29 | 7.04 | 10.89 | 8.88 | | 毛利率% | 76.20 | 76.84 | 77.65 | 78.06 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 10.04 | 10.74 | 11.91 | 12.97 | | PE | 20.34 | 19.00 | 17.13 | 15.74 | | PB | 7.16 | 5.55 | 4.19 | 3.31 | 公司点评报告 · 食品饮料行业 资 ...