11 月纯 ESG 策略超额收益 5.01% ——ESG 与央国企月度报告（2025 年 11 月） 2025 年 12 月 8 日 ESG 与央国企月度报告 分析师 马宗明 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 相关研究 1.【银河 ESG】厚积薄发，志存高远——ESG 投资策 略解析与优化构建 2. 【银河 ESG】穿越市场周期变幻:ESG 舆情整合策略 新径 3.【银河 ESG】3 月纯 ESG 策略超额收益 2.32% 4.【银河 ESG】4 月 ESG 舆情整合策略超额收益为 5.86% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ ESG 筛选策略（沪深 300）：该策略是采用我们在 2023 年 12 月 8 日发布 的《厚积薄发，志存高远——ESG 投资策略解析与优化构建》报告中呈现的筛 选策略，不但充分考察了 ESG 所提供的增量风险信息，还结合了马科维兹资 产组合理论。详细内容可参考原报告。策略表现： ...

宏观动态报告 出口如期反弹，内需疲软或拖累进口改善态势 ——11 月进出口数据解读 2025 年 12 月 8 日 分析师 张迪 ：010-8092-7737 ：zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 吕雷 ：010-8092-7780 ：lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 ⚫ 12 月 8 日海关总署公布 11 月进出口数据：11 月我国出口商品 3303.5 亿美 元，同比增速为 5.9%（前值-1.1%），过去十年出口增速同期均值为 2.8%。 进口 2186.7 亿美元，增速 1.9%（前值 1%），过去十年进口增速同期均值为 0%。贸易顺差 1116.8 亿美元（前值 900.7 亿美元）。 ⚫ 11 月出口增速反弹回升，一方面全球经济景气度保持复苏以及市场多元 化的持续推进对出口增速带来支撑，另一方面低基数效应对读数上带来修 复：一是全球制造业 PMI 维 ...

分析师 张迪 ：010-8092-7737 ：zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 宏观动态报告 美国中期选举前瞻：政治重心内移？ 2025 年 12 月 7 日 铁伟奥 ：13683240373 ：tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060002 风险提示 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 ⚫ 2026 年美国迎来中期选举，对于特朗普政府而言，内政和外交事务的优先级可能 面临阶段性调整。美国以三权分立闻名，国会（众议院+参议院）掌握立法权，中 期 选 举 将 改 选全 部 众 议 院席 位和 三 分 之 一 的参 议 院 席 位， 同时 涉 及 州 长 及地 方 议 会席位的换届。中期选举是对特朗普重掌政权两年以来成果的检验，一旦失去国会 控制权，特朗普将再次面临"跛脚鸭"困境。 ⚫ 总统"跛脚"有何影响？其一，政策推进效率大幅度下滑。根据美国立法流程，法 案须经两院分别表决通过才能生效，若执政党政府未能 ...

美联储 12 月降息预期升温 —— 宏观周报（12 月 1 日-12 月 5 日） 2025 证 12 证 7 证 （2）PPI：原油、有色价格走高，黑色系商品表现分化。 证证 12 证 06 证证 WTI 证证证证 2.61% 证证证证证证证证 0.87% 证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 詹璐 证0755-8345-3719 证zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130522110001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 赵红蕾 证010-8092 -7606 证zhaohonglei _yj@chinastock.com.c n 证证证证证证证证S0130524060005 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_yj@chinas ...

Market Overview - In November, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a trend of high-low switching, with the ChiNext Index down 4.23% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 5.23%[5] - The market's focus shifted towards defensive sectors as funds moved from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets[5] Investment Strategy - December's market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with a short-term oscillating structure anticipated[5] - Key events include the Central Economic Work Conference and various industry conferences that may create investment opportunities[5] Key Investment Themes - Focus on "anti-involution" policies which are expected to improve industry performance, particularly in resource sectors benefiting from rising commodity prices[5] - Emphasis on overseas expansion themes, with Chinese high-end manufacturing expected to gain market share globally[5] Recommended Stocks - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.83 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 23.62 to 10.10[7] - Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ) expected to see EPS rise from 2.38 in 2024 to 2.75 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 10.9 to 9.45[27] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue is projected to grow from 303.64 billion yuan in 2024 to 381.84 billion yuan in 2027, with a net profit increase from 32.05 billion yuan to 75.22 billion yuan[18] - Electric Power Investment's revenue is expected to increase from 298.59 billion yuan in 2024 to 371.25 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit rising from 5.34 billion yuan to 6.17 billion yuan[27] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, underperformance in commercialization, and slower-than-expected product development[5]

Group 1 - The report suggests a cautious investment strategy in the convertible bond market due to reduced liquidity and market volatility, recommending a defensive approach with a focus on large-cap, debt-oriented products and value styles [2][50]. - The recommended allocation includes 70% in defensive sectors such as infrastructure, military, refining, and banking, while 30% is allocated to high-elasticity sectors like consumption and technology, which may benefit from potential policy support [2][50]. - The report highlights a recommended convertible bond portfolio for December, including specific bonds such as Shanlu Convertible Bond and Shenghong Convertible Bond, among others [2][50]. Group 2 - The report reviews the convertible bond market in November, noting a 2.2% decline in the stock market and a 0.7% decline in convertible bonds, with a shift towards defensive sectors [4][6]. - It indicates that the convertible bond market is expected to maintain high volatility, with a focus on the continuation of style shifts and policy impacts from upcoming central meetings [35][46]. - The report emphasizes the performance of various sectors, with steel bonds leading gains at 11.8%, while non-bank financials and telecommunications experienced declines [19][22]. Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of quantitative strategies, noting that low-volatility strategies outperformed high-volatility strategies in the recent period, with year-to-date returns of 16.55% for low-volatility strategies [52][53]. - It highlights the importance of low-price factors in convertible bond selection, which have historically provided a safety margin while allowing for upside potential [53][55]. - The report provides insights into the market structure, indicating a significant reduction in the overall market size of convertible bonds, which has implications for future valuations and investment strategies [35][39].

产业政策：迈向 2035 年的关键密码 证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 "十五五"系列研究报告 产业政策：迈向 2035 年的关键密码 2025 证 12 证 04 证 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 证010-8092 8096 证zhangjun _yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 许冬石 证010-8357 -4134 证xudongshi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130515030003 研究助理：刘小逸 风险提示 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2025 证证证证证证证证证证证证证·证证 证证证证证证证证证证 ...

Investment Rating - The public utility industry maintains a "Recommended" investment rating [1] Core Insights - The growth rate of electricity consumption is accelerating, with significant regional differentiation in the results of competitive bidding for mechanism electricity prices [1] - The thermal power generation has shifted from decline to growth, with an increase in electricity consumption [6] - The competitive bidding results for mechanism electricity prices show notable regional disparities, with some areas experiencing price changes ranging from -90% to +63% [6] Summary by Sections Industry News - The report highlights the acceleration in electricity consumption growth and the regional differences in electricity pricing mechanisms [1][9] Industry Data - The report provides data on carbon trading market conditions, indicating a price of 70.14 and a growth of 14.80% [19] - It also includes electricity industry data showing a 10.4% increase in electricity consumption in October 2025, with specific figures for various categories [22] Investment Recommendations and Stock Pool - The report suggests investment opportunities based on the observed trends in electricity consumption and pricing mechanisms [6][7]

行业月报 ·公用事业行业 用电量增速加快，各地机制电价竞价结果分化明显 ǒǒ ➂≈㬲屄≢⛭㐶㛙⢈ 2025 11 30 核心观点 公用事业行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 橧愰⛤ 010 -80927673 taoyigong_yj@chinastock.com.cn S0130522030001 㲪㓔➗ 010 -80927656 liangyounan_yj@chinastock.com.cn S0130523070002 䰩争⛮䠜睵湚㥼 mamin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025 11 28 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024/12/2 2025/1/2 2025/2/2 2025/3/2 2025/4/2 2025/5/2 2025/6/2 2025/7/2 2025/8/2 2025/9/2 2025/10/2 2025/11/2 SW 300 相关研究 1. _Q3 2._Q3 3._ 7 www.chinastock.com.cn z 火电电量由降转增，用电量增速加快。 10 8002 7.9% 9 6.4pct 10 +7.3% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Dongpeng Beverage [2][5] Core Insights - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the issuance of up to 66.44 million H shares, which is expected to enhance its long-term value [5] - The issuance is projected to have a manageable dilution effect on earnings per share (EPS), estimated at around 11% post-issuance, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 26X for 2026, indicating a reasonable valuation [5] - The funds raised from the H share issuance will be utilized for enhancing overseas market supply chain infrastructure, brand promotion, and exploring investment opportunities in foreign markets [5] Financial Performance Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 15,839 million yuan in 2024 to 32,658 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.67% [2][7] - Net profit is expected to increase from 3,327 million yuan in 2024 to 7,096 million yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 22.90% [2][7] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 45%, indicating strong operational efficiency [2][7] Market Position and Growth Potential - Dongpeng Beverage is positioned to benefit from the expanding functional beverage market in China, with significant growth potential compared to competitors like Nongfu Spring and Master Kong [5] - The company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings and expanding into international markets, particularly Southeast Asia, with plans to establish a presence in the U.S. and Middle East in the long term [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory dynamics and sales performance as the new fiscal year begins, particularly around the Chinese New Year [5]