Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with a focus on investment opportunities related to CPI recovery [5] - CPI has shown a positive growth trend since October 2025, with food CPI also reflecting improvements [5] - The report highlights specific sectors such as liquor, dairy, and consumer goods that are poised for recovery [12][14][15] Summary by Sections Supply-Demand Relationship and CPI Recovery - PPI transmission combined with consumer recovery is likely to sustain the CPI improvement trend, with CPI growth recorded at +0.7% in November and +0.8% in December 2025 [5] - Food CPI showed a year-on-year increase of +0.2% in November and +1.1% in December, with fresh vegetable prices rising significantly [5][11] - The report anticipates that the CPI recovery will continue into 2026, driven by PPI improvements and supportive domestic demand policies [5] Sector-Specific Insights - **Liquor**: The price of Feitian Moutai has rebounded, with prices reaching 1710 RMB for whole boxes and 1660 RMB for individual bottles as of February 8, 2026, indicating strong demand during the Spring Festival [12][14] - **Dairy**: The average price of fresh milk has stabilized around 3.04 RMB per kilogram, with expectations for upward movement in 2026 due to supply adjustments and improved demand from demographic policies [14] - **Consumer Goods**: Prices for certain products, such as frozen foods and snacks, are beginning to recover, with companies like Anjijia adjusting promotional strategies to enhance profitability [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the consumer goods sector, including Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and others, as well as key players in the liquor sector like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [21]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the embodied intelligence industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various companies within the sector [4][38]. Core Insights - The embodied intelligence market in China is rapidly growing, with expectations to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, driven by significant technological advancements and capital investments [15][24]. - Key players in the industry are actively engaging in financing activities, indicating strong market interest and confidence in the sector's future [33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of application scenarios, particularly in industrial settings, where humanoid robots are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce labor costs [34]. Industry Market Review - The embodied intelligence index experienced a slight decline of 0.19% from February 2 to 6, 2026, ranking 14th among 31 industry indices, but has shown a year-to-date increase of 30.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 7.52 percentage points [4][6]. - The static PE ratio of the embodied intelligence index was approximately 37.4 times as of February 6, 2026, indicating a valuation at historical median levels [7]. - The trading volume for the index constituents reached 14.04 billion shares during the same period, reflecting a 23.4% decrease week-on-week [7]. Industry Events Summary - Shenzhen Zhujidongli announced the completion of a $200 million financing round, focusing on the commercialization of humanoid robot technology [14]. - Songying Technology completed consecutive Pre-A and Pre-A+ financing rounds, with funds directed towards the development of its ORCA physical AI system [16]. - Tesla is set to unveil its third-generation humanoid robot, with an anticipated production capacity of 1 million units per year [18][19]. - Jingzhi Technology launched the Bolt, the world's fastest humanoid robot, achieving a peak speed of 10 m/s [20]. - The Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center secured over 700 million yuan in its first round of market financing, marking a significant step towards commercialization [22]. Latest Industry Perspectives - The report highlights the increasing focus on the main machine manufacturers, with several companies achieving notable production milestones [33]. - Application scenarios are identified as a critical breakthrough point for the commercialization of embodied intelligence, particularly in industrial environments [34]. - The report notes the importance of dexterous hands in humanoid robots, which significantly impact their operational capabilities and cost structures [35]. - The core components of the industry, such as motors and reducers, have seen a rise in average PE ratios, indicating a competitive landscape with increasing entry of new players [36]. - The report emphasizes the need for technological breakthroughs in data training and simulation to overcome current limitations in the industry [37].

- The median excess return for CSI 500 Index Enhanced Funds this week was 0.38%[3][4] - The median excess return for CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Funds this week was 0.34%[3][4] - The median excess return for CSI A500 Index Enhanced Funds this week was 0.31%[3][4] - The median return for other Index Enhanced Funds this week was 0.01%[3][4] - The median return for Absolute Return (Hedge) Funds this week was 0.11%[3][4] - The median return for other Active Quantitative Funds this week was -1.35%[3][4] - The median return for Thematic Funds this week was -0.83%[15][16] - The median return for Performance Fee Funds this week was -1.14%[15][17] - The median return for Sector Rotation Funds this week was -2.12%[15][18] - The median return for Multi-Factor Funds this week was -1.84%[15][19] - The median return for Big Data Driven Active Funds this week was -0.67%[15][20]

ETF Market Overview - As of February 9, 2026, the total number of ETFs in the market reached 2,310, with an overall scale of 1.8 trillion yuan and a weekly trading volume of 0.4 trillion yuan [1][3] - Stock ETFs dominate the market, with broad-based stock ETFs accounting for 61.3% of the total scale and a weekly trading volume of 0.3 trillion yuan, representing 73.1% of the total market trading volume [1][3] - Bond ETFs are the most actively traded, with a weekly trading volume of 0.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.3% of the total market trading volume [1][3] Fund Inflows and Outflows - The top inflow ETFs include the Hang Seng Technology ETF, which saw an inflow of 1.2 billion yuan, followed by the Short-term Bond ETF with 0.5 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF with 0.3 billion yuan [5][6] - The top outflow ETF was the CSI 300 ETF, which experienced an outflow of 0.4 billion yuan, followed by the Hu-Shen 300 ETF with 0.3 billion yuan [7][8] Industry Sector Fund Flows - The technology and manufacturing sectors attracted a net inflow of 1.2 billion yuan, while the financial real estate and consumer sectors saw net inflows of 0.5 billion yuan and 0.3 billion yuan, respectively [13] - The resources and public services sector experienced the highest net outflow, totaling 0.6 billion yuan [13] Core Broad-based Index and ETF Performance - Core broad-based indices showed varying degrees of decline, with the Sci-Tech Innovation indices experiencing the largest drops, while large-cap blue-chip indices remained relatively resilient [18][19] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Entrepreneurship Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index had weekly returns of -1.5% and -1.3%, respectively, while the large-cap indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hu-Shen 300 Index had smaller declines [18][19] Industry Theme Index and ETF Performance Technology and Manufacturing - The photovoltaic industry was the only segment to achieve positive returns, with a weekly return of 1.2%, while chip and AI-related sectors faced significant declines [20] - The CS Artificial Intelligence Index dropped by 3.5%, and the Sci-Tech AI Index fell by 3.2%, with corresponding ETFs reflecting similar declines [20] New ETF Listings - Last week, 12 new ETFs were launched, primarily in the stock category, covering broad-based, thematic, and cross-border classifications [15][16] - The largest new ETF was the Shipbuilding ETF, with a listing scale of 0.5 billion yuan, while the Color Metal ETF also had a significant scale of 0.4 billion yuan [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company Electric Power Green Energy (stock code: 000875) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of its green hydrogen-based energy business [1] - The company has changed its name from Jilin Electric Power Co., Ltd. to Guodian Power Green Energy Co., Ltd. to better reflect its focus on renewable energy and green hydrogen [3] - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025, estimated between 440 million to 540 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50.88% to 59.97% [3] - The decline in performance is attributed to challenges in both the renewable energy and thermal power sectors, including lower average utilization hours and settlement prices in the renewable sector, and reduced auxiliary service income in the thermal sector [3] - The company expects operational cash flow to improve significantly in 2025 due to accelerated subsidy payments from the government, with a total of 1.271 billion yuan received in subsidies, a 154.2% increase year-on-year [3] - The green ammonia project has entered regular operation, and the green methanol project is expected to be operational by 2028, indicating a strong future revenue potential [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts a revenue of 12.883 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 6.24% from the previous year, with a projected net profit of 501 million yuan, down 54.4% [5] - The expected profit margins are 22.01% for 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.14 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 49.28 [5]

Performance Insights - The proportion of companies with positive revenue growth on the North Exchange is high, indicating a stronger seasonal rally in spring. In 2025, 62% of companies reported positive revenue growth, while 48% reported positive net profit growth[12][14]. - The spring rally in 2025 saw a significant increase of +40.17% in the North Exchange 50 Index, supported by optimistic performance expectations[12][15]. Liquidity Factors - Improved liquidity is a key driver for the seasonal rally, with trading volumes in 2024 and 2025 starting from two consecutive days of increased trading volume. The average daily trading amount reached over 100 billion yuan in these years[16][17]. - The North Exchange's trading volume has shown significant fluctuations, but the North Exchange 50 Index's volatility has been relatively small, suggesting stable liquidity conditions[22]. Valuation Trends - Valuations have experienced a phase of correction before seasonal rallies, with the North Exchange's overall price-to-earnings ratio dropping from 55 times in September 2025 to 47 times currently, providing a foundation for potential rallies[26]. - Historical data shows that prior to the spring rallies, valuations were at relatively low levels, which attracted more investments and facilitated valuation recovery[23][26]. Market Dynamics - The spring rally is influenced by multiple factors, including concentrated policy expectations, thematic investment opportunities, and performance-driven market sentiment[5][6]. - The North Exchange has shown a decreasing "see-saw effect" with the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating a growing recognition and acceptance of the North Exchange among investors[17]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as new energy, embodied intelligence, and emerging industries with unique business models that are scarce in the A-share market[15]. - Emphasize companies with strong financial indicators, high growth potential, and significant R&D investments to capitalize on the expected spring rally[15].

Global Asset Performance - Central banks' monetary policies are diverging, with Australia raising interest rates for the first time in two years, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept rates unchanged [4][5] - Amazon is expected to increase capital expenditures by over 50% this year to build AI infrastructure, impacting its stock price negatively [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's stance is seen as favorable for economic stability, with a projected growth of approximately 2.2% in 2026 [4][5] Commodity Market - COMEX gold rose by 5.13%, while COMEX silver fell by 1.28% due to increased margin requirements and selling pressure from leveraged positions [9][10] - The core logic for gold's bull market has shifted from short-term interest rate speculation to hedging against long-term dollar credit risks and global monetary system restructuring [10] - Industrial metals are expected to benefit from global green transitions, indicating a positive long-term demand structure [10] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields showed a significant bull steepening, with the 2-year yield declining sharply due to weak labor market data, while long-term yields fell less due to inflation concerns [20][24] - The Chinese bond market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with the yield curve showing complex changes, particularly in the 10-year and 30-year bonds [24][25] - Long-term expectations suggest a potential decline in Chinese bond yields, with the 10-year yield possibly falling to the 1.6%-1.8% range by the end of 2026 [25] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.51%, driven by a significant sell-off in global tech stocks and traditional safe-haven trading [27] - The euro against the dollar fell by 0.30%, influenced by the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates and easing inflation pressures [34] - The British pound declined by 0.95%, affected by internal policy disagreements and expectations of potential rate cuts [39] Equity Market - The market is shifting from tech growth stocks to value stocks, with traditional sectors like finance and energy leading gains, while tech-heavy indices like NASDAQ faced declines [43][48] - Notable performances include the Indian SENSEX30 rising by 3.54% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 2.50% [43] - The outlook suggests that if higher interest rates become the norm, growth stocks may face ongoing valuation pressure, while stable value stocks could outperform [48]

Group 1 - The pricing environment of the A-share market has not undergone a significant shift, reflecting the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic totals and the A-share market. Economic recovery signs are evident for 2025, but the pace of recovery in 2026 will require time [2][4] - The A-share market exhibits a notable "calendar effect" around the Spring Festival, with historical trends indicating a preference for high-dividend, consumer, and defensive sectors before the festival, while small-cap and growth styles tend to perform better post-festival [2][12] - The current valuation levels of the A-share market are relatively high, with the overall A-index PE (TTM) at 23.04 times, placing it in the 93.71 percentile since 2010, while the PB (LF) is at 1.90 times, in the 54.40 percentile [2][17] Group 2 - Two important supports for the A-share market are policy stability and liquidity. Since September 2024, a series of policies have been introduced to stabilize expectations and increase market liquidity, aimed at promoting high-quality development in the capital market [2][4] - The A-share market's upward momentum remains strong, with a significant probability of an increase post-Spring Festival. A cautious strategy of "lightly holding stocks during the festival" is recommended to mitigate risks while retaining opportunities for participation in the spring market [2][4] - Key investment directions include sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, and construction materials, as well as focus areas like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, new energy, and aerospace [2][4][31]

Domestic Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with subway passenger volume up 8.8% compared to the same period in 2024, and domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500, a 1.6% increase year-on-year[2] - Movie ticket revenue has decreased by 37.2% year-on-year, averaging 62.245 million yuan per day[2] - Passenger car sales in January were 679,000 units, down 31.7% from the previous year[2] External Demand - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1993.2, showing a marginal decline but significantly higher than the previous year[2] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1122.2, down 4.5% week-on-week and 16.4% year-on-year[2] - Port cargo throughput reached 281.597 million tons, a 25.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024[2] Production Sector - The operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.55%[2] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires decreased by 2.08 percentage points to 72.76%[2] - PTA production increased by 35,500 tons to 1.4639 million tons, with an operating rate of 76.29%[2] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low, with pork prices down 1.12% week-on-week and vegetable prices down 1.46%[3][4] - Producer Price Index (PPI) shows significant increases in coking coal and coke prices, while non-ferrous metals have adjusted downwards due to a stronger dollar and seasonal demand decline[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations netted 756 billion yuan this week, with SHIBOR rates showing a seasonal decline[5] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 30-year yield at 2.2510% and the 10-year yield at 1.8102%[5] International Context - U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 57.3, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.5%, the lowest in 13 months[5] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6%, indicating a return to expansion, with new orders and production indices showing significant growth[7]

摒弃"难减排"标签：高碳行业科学脱碳的关键前提 ——报告点评 2026 年 2 月 6 日 核心观点 分析师 马宗明 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 ：17394948526 ：fangjiacheng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 1.【银河 ESG】国有机构投资者是否更关注 ESG？ 2. 【银河 ESG】董事会是否会因为企业非财务表现受 损而罢免 CEO？ 3. 【银河 ESG】聚焦 ESG 分歧的指数增强策略能否 带来超额收益？ 4. 【银河 ESG】兼顾环境的投资组合能否提高投资业 绩？ 7. 【银河 ESG】绿色金融与技术创新是低碳发展的核 心动力 8. 【银河 ESG】地缘政治、清洁能源发展与未来能源 安全 9.【银河 ESG】合力奋进，共御气候变化——碳定 价、政策联动与全球减排之路 10. 【银河 ESG】全球可持续发展脉搏——应对气候 变化中企业与投资的关键审视 11. 【银河 ESG】绿色金融研究：理论与实践的系统 性综述 12. 【银河 ES ...