最近 12 月市场表现 周观点 ❖ 锂电：5 月中美欧电车销量环比齐增，需求向好下 6 月排产环比继续上行。 Q3 负极酝酿涨价，底部向上信号明确，同时建议重视正极及铜箔环节涨价机 会，关注尚太裕能诺德宝明等。《脱离外国敌对电池依赖法》仅针对国土安全 部采购，影响有限，重点关注电池环节宁德、欣旺达、冠宇、豪鹏等。 行业投资策略周报/证券研究报告 2 3 本周国内硅料、硅片、电池片和组件价格持续下跌，辅材价格整体稳定。根据 InfoLink Consulting 公布的价格： 辅材：主栅正银均价为 5358 元/千克，周环比下降 13 元，年环比上升 598 元。 3.2mm 光伏玻璃均价为 24.8 元/平方米，周环比持平。2.0mm 无框玻璃均价为 16.9 元/平方米，周环比下降 0.9 元。光伏 EVA 胶膜均价为 11.3 元/平方米，周环比下 降 0.19 元。POE 树脂：均价为 20160 元/吨，周环比持平。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------ ...

端午消费数据【财通商社】 要点 ⭕1、旅游数据 ⭕全国数据 据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，2024年端午节（6.8-6.10）全国国内旅游出游合计1.1亿人次，同 比增长6.3%；国内游客出游总花费403.5亿元，同比增长8.1%。 图：2019-2024年节假日恢复度 数据来源：文旅部 ⭕目的地数据 【省市县】 湖南省：端午假期3天，全省共接待游客1368.81万人次，同口径比去年端午假期增长23.7%；全 省游客总花费达96.81亿元，同口径比上年端午假期增长25.34%，全省游客人均每日花费为 523.88元。 广东省：假期三天，全省共接待游客1924.5万人次，实现旅游收入91.1亿元 宁夏自治区：假期三天，全区累计接待游客206.61万人次，同比增长16.72%，旅游花费13.9亿 元，同比增长9.97%； 上海市：假期三天，共接待游客761.52万人次 同比增长13.24% 北京市：假期三天，北京市共接待游客779.2万人次，旅游消费100.9亿元。 重庆市：假期三天，全市累计接待国内游客701.44万人次，同比增长9.5%；实现旅游总收入 41 ...

农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.06.10 投资评级:看好(维持) -19% -14% -9% -4% 1% 7% 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关报告 1. 《情绪主导猪价较快上行，周期反转 持续推荐》 2024-06-02 2. 《看涨情绪猪价较快上行，持续推荐 生猪养殖》 2024-05-26 3. 《猪价上行趋势，持续推荐养殖板块》 2024-05-23 农业重点数据跟踪周报 ❖ 生猪养殖：猪价延续上行，价格周期反转。产能去化传导供应偏紧，叠加看涨情 绪，仔猪生猪价格延续上行。短期，节后或有窄幅调整，整体上行趋势不改；中 长期，现企业金流压力增加明显，价格周期反转，持续推荐配置生猪养殖。1） 数量端：4 月能繁母猪存栏延续去化。据国家统计局数据，4 月底能繁母猪存栏 数量 3986 万头，月环比-0.10%。2）价格端：延续上行。根据涌益咨询，6 月 6 日，商品猪出栏价为 18.16 元/kg，周环比+6.14%。相关标的：牧原股份，温 氏股份，新五丰，巨星农牧。 ❖ 禽类养殖：白鸡价格下行。据钢联统计，2024 年 5 月祖代引种及自繁更新量在 14.25 万套，环比-5.63%。下游毛鸡 ...

Group 1: API Price Reduction - The introduction of innovative architectures like MLA in DeepSeek-V2 has reduced input and output prices to 1 RMB and 2 RMB per million tokens, respectively, attracting significant industry attention[37] - Major players like ByteDance and Alibaba have followed suit, lowering flagship model API prices to below 10 RMB per million tokens, with lightweight models dropping to under 1 RMB per million tokens[44] - The overall trend of API price reduction is driven by innovations in model architecture, inference engines, chip cost-performance improvements, and parameter quantization, leading to a significant optimization in inference costs[46] Group 2: MoE Architecture - The Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture allows for efficient scaling of model parameters and reduction of computational costs by integrating multiple expert models and gating networks[38] - DeepSeek-V2 and Snowflake's Arctic model utilize fine-grained expert segmentation and shared expert isolation mechanisms, significantly enhancing parameter efficiency[76] - The next step in MoE research is to develop more heterogeneous architectures that can dynamically adjust computational costs based on task complexity, improving model efficiency[74] Group 3: Attention Mechanism Optimization - The attention mechanism is crucial for the success of large language models, but its computational complexity grows quadratically with sequence length, prompting industry exploration of simplified multi-head attention (MHA) methods[67] - Recent advancements like MLA and Mamba-2 have shown significant potential for optimizing the attention mechanism, leading to improved performance and reduced computational demands[44] - The industry is actively seeking alternatives to traditional attention mechanisms to enhance model efficiency, with ongoing research into state space models like Mamba[52]

⚫ 资质声明 以报告发布日后 6 个月内，证券相对于市场基准指数的涨跌幅为标准： 买入：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅大于 10%； 增持：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅在 5%～10%之间； 中性：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅在-5%～5%之间； 减持：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅小于-5%； 无评级：由于我们无法获取必要的资料，或者公司面临无法预见结果的重大不确定性事件，或者其他原因，致使我们无法 给出明确的投资评级。 A 股市场代表性指数以沪深 300 指数为基准；香港市场代表性指数以恒生指数为基准；美国市场代表性指数以标普 500 指 数为基准。 ⚫ 免责声明 投资策略报告/ 2024.06.10 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 图表目录 投资策略报告/证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----- ...

Labor Market Trends - Wage growth remained stable with a 4.4% YoY increase in average hourly earnings in May, unchanged from the previous month[1] - Retail and wholesale sectors saw the largest wage growth increases, rising by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively[13] - Real wage growth continued to decline, with April's real hourly earnings growth at 0.5%, down from March[1] Employment Data - May nonfarm payrolls added 272,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations[3] - Unemployment rate rose to 4% in May, with labor force participation rate declining to 62.5%[3][17] - Previous months' nonfarm payrolls were revised downward, with March and April combined revisions totaling 22,000 fewer jobs[4] Sectoral Analysis - Education/healthcare, government, and leisure/hospitality sectors led job growth with 86,000, 43,000, and 42,000 new jobs respectively[44] - Government, business services, and leisure/hospitality sectors showed significant month-over-month job growth increases of 36,000, 34,000, and 30,000 respectively[44] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings declined to 8.059 million in April, with vacancy rate dropping to 4.8%[10] - Labor supply-demand gap narrowed to 1.567 million in April, indicating gradual market rebalancing[11] - Number of people unemployed for over 27 weeks continued to rise, while labor force exits increased[4] Monetary Policy Implications - Market expectations for first Fed rate cut shifted to September following strong nonfarm payrolls data[5] - Inflation pressures remain above Fed's target, with high interest rates likely to persist in the short term[24]

政 协 全国政协十四届常委会第七 次会议 四 川等3个试点省份开展深化医疗服务价格改革全省（区）试点。5）医务人员薪酬不得与药品、卫生材料、检查、化验等业务收入挂钩。6）推进以业财融合为 重 点 的公立医院运营管理 合理调整提高护理服务价格。 国家发展改革委印 发《2024—2025年社会信用体系建设行动计划》。文件提出，1）加快地方融资信用服务平台整合，原则上一个省份只保留一个省级平台。 2）建立健全信用法规制度，加快推动出台《社会信用建设法》，推动省级信用立法全覆盖。3）定期更新全国公共信用信息基础目录和失信惩戒措施基础清 单，推动已有设立依据的领域出台严重失信主体名单管理办法。 《财政部关于下达2024年 汽车以旧换新补贴中央财政 预拨资金预算的通知》 国务院印 发《深化医药卫生体制改革2024年重点工作任务》。其中提到，1）推进药品和医用耗材集中带量采购提质扩面。2）加快创新药、罕见病治疗药品、临 床急需药品等以及创新医疗器械、疫情防控药械审评审批。3）支持中药工业龙头企业全产业链布局，加快中药全产业链追溯体系建设。4）指导内蒙古、浙江、 央 行相关负责人发表的《扎实做好"五篇大文章" 推动金融高质量 ...

Global Fund Flows - Global funds flowed into the currency, bond, and stock markets with net inflows of $46.7 billion, $17.8 billion, and $10.7 billion respectively during the week of May 30 to June 5, 2024[9] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showed upward movement despite market data fluctuations[14] - Emerging markets received more inflows compared to developed markets, with a cumulative return difference of 24.6% since the beginning of 2024[27] Bond Market Insights - The yield curve inversion between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds expanded to -0.44%[43] - Global funds predominantly flowed into U.S. corporate bonds, with inflows of $47.39 billion, followed by mixed bonds at $43.56 billion and sovereign bonds at $32.95 billion[43] Sector-Specific Trends - In the U.S. market, the utilities sector attracted the most inflows at $9.23 billion, while the energy sector saw the largest outflows at -$6.55 billion[68] - In China, the financial sector received the highest inflow of $1.99 billion, while the technology sector experienced the largest outflow at -$1.98 billion[65] Northbound and Southbound Capital Movements - Northbound capital inflows totaled 5.3 billion yuan, with significant investments in high-end manufacturing (3.6 billion yuan) and medical aesthetics (3.5 billion yuan)[19] - Southbound capital flows favored the information technology sector, with net purchases of 7.35 billion HKD, while the real estate sector saw the least interest with only 0.52 billion HKD[10] Fundraising and Market Activity - A total of 31.03 billion yuan was raised in the week, with an IPO scale of 7.03 billion yuan from one company[20] - The margin financing balance decreased to 15,118 billion yuan, reflecting a reduction of 135.66 billion yuan from the previous week[12]

2024年6月8日 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|--------------| | | | | | 证券研究报告 | | 新房销售改善有限 | | | 实体经济图谱 2024 年 第 2 1 期 | | | | | | 分析师：陈兴 博士 | | | 财通宏观首席分析师 S0160523030002 | | | 分析师：马骏 博士 S0160523080004 | | | 联系人：陈莹 | | 1 各行业量价速览 • 6月上旬，从中观高频数据看，一方面，终端需求表现边际回暖，6月前7天42城新房销量增速降幅收窄，上周票 房收入与观影人次双双上行，观影市场有所回暖。另一方面，生产略有回落，本周样本钢厂钢材产量增速回落， 纯碱、石油沥青装置开工率均下降， 6月前6天发电耗煤量增速回落。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--- ...

轻工制造 /行业投资策略周报 /2024.06.09 前五月家具出口额同比+16.6%，关注出口相关转债 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近12月市场表现 核心观点  家具出口延续改善，关注轻工出口链。据海关总署数据，2024年1-5月我 轻工制造 沪深300 国家具及其零件出口额达299.2亿美元，同比增长16.6%，灯具、照明装置及 7% 其零件出口额达169.7亿美元，同比+4.6%，塑料制品出口额达438.7亿美元， 1% 同比+8.5%，箱包及类似容器出口额达148.2亿美元，同比+1.6%。低基数下今 -6% 年前5个月轻工各品类出口改善明显，伴随海外去库逐步进入尾声，补库周期 -13% 或将到来，叠加2024年降息预期下美国地产有望迎来复苏，出海企业订单有 -19% 望迎来改善，建议关注相关转债：乐歌转债、松霖转债等。 -26%  本周转债行情表现：本周（2024.6.3-2024.6.7），中证转债指数跌1.04%，上 证转债指数跌0.91%，深证转债指数跌1.29%，万得可转债等权指数跌1.97%， 分析师 吕明璋 SAC证书编号：S0160523030001 万得可转债加权指数 ...