比亚迪(002594) /乘用车 /公司点评 /2024.06.13 5 月销量同比高增长，新车型上市有望提振销量 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 ❖ 事件：公司发布2024年5月产销快报，5月公司总销量33.2万辆，同比增长 基本数据 2024-06-12 38.1%；其中纯电动乘用车5月销量14.6万辆，同比增长22.4%，插混乘用车 收盘价(元) 242.90 流通股本(亿股) 22.60 5月销量18.4万辆，同比增长54.1%。商用车5月销量1329辆，同比增长17.8%。 每股净资产(元) 49.15 5月海外销售新能源乘用车3.7万辆，同比增长267.5%。 总股本(亿股) 29.09 最近12月市场表现 ❖ DM5.0 以及新车型上市，有望提振销量：王朝网数据显示 5 月公司销量 17.2 万辆，同比增长 37.1%。海洋网数据显示 5 月公司销量 14.3 万辆，同比 比亚迪 沪深300 上证指数 增长39.5%。腾势品牌5月销量1.2万辆，同比增长11.1%。仰望品牌5月销 5% 量608辆。方程豹5月销量2430辆。5月28日，比亚迪第五代DM技术发布 -3% 暨秦L D ...

零跑汽车(09863) /乘用车 /公司点评 /2024.06.13 5 月销量再创新高，新车型将于 6 月上市 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 ❖ 事件：公司微信公众号发布 2024 年 5 月销量数据。5 月零跑汽车交付量达 基本数据 2024-06-12 18165台，同比增长50.6%。其中SUV车型C11、C10交付量达到11992台。 收盘价(港元) 26.35 流通股本(亿股) 11.16 每股净资产(港元) 5.53 ❖ 智能6座SUV C16将于6月正式上市，有望带动销量持续增长： C16 总股本(亿股) 13.37 车型是零跑的首款中大型六座SUV，是LEAP 3.0技术架构的旗舰。C16 具备 最近12月市场表现 多项前沿技术，如中央域控、800V 高压动总、8295 智能座舱、21 扬杜比音 响、激光雷达等。智能驾驶层面，C16搭载了融合128线程激光雷达的30 个 零跑汽车 恒生指数 高精感知硬件，在硬件能力上具备 L3 级智能驾驶水平；可以实现包括 NAP 乘用车 16% 高速智能领航辅助、NAC 导航辅助巡航等25项智驾辅助功能。动力路线上， 3% 零跑C16延续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changan Automobile (000625) [1] Core Views - Changan Automobile's total sales in May 2024 reached 207,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [2] - Cumulative sales from January to May 2024 totaled 1.109 million units, up 12.03% year-on-year [2] - Sales of self-owned brands in May 2024 were 171,000 units, a 4.7% increase year-on-year [2] - Overseas sales of self-owned brands in May 2024 surged 72.9% year-on-year to 33,000 units [2] - Changan Automobile became one of the first pilot units for L3-level intelligent connected vehicles, with its SL03i model equipped with a Traffic Jam Pilot (TJP) system [2] - The company is expanding its overseas market, with a new factory in Thailand expected to start operations in Q1 2025, with an initial production capacity of 100,000 units [2] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 8.434 billion yuan, 11.381 billion yuan, and 15.180 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 15.73x, 11.66x, and 8.74x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2] - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 29.56%, 28.92%, and 21.02% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - Net profit growth rates are expected to be -25.54%, 34.93%, and 33.38% for the same periods [3] Operational Highlights - Changan Automobile's "Beidou Tianshu" intelligent strategy continues to advance, with the company being a pioneer in L3-level autonomous driving technology [2] - The company is deepening its localization strategy in Thailand, with plans to introduce at least 15 new products by 2030 [2] - Localization rate in Thailand is expected to exceed 80% in 2024 and reach 90% by 2026 [2]

谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准 10 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 数据来源：FHS，财通证券研究所 数据来源：FHS，财通证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|---------|----------------|--------|-----------|--------|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------|---------|-----------| | 日期 | 全球 | 中国 香港地 区 | 美国 | 中国 大陆 | 日本 | 意大利 | 德国 | 新加坡 | 法国 | 阿联酋 | 英国 | 其他 市场 | | 2023.1 | 8.9% | 10.3% | 26.4% | (17.3%) | (0.8%) | 43.6% | 20.2% | 19.8% | 16.9% | 21.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | | 2023.2 | 12.3% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The company aims to become the largest provider of imaging and video productivity software and subscription services globally, focusing on its subscription business with rapid improvement in payment rates [4] - The MiracleVision model has been upgraded to V5, enhancing creative design workflows and enabling commercial applications [3][4] - As of June 11, 2024, the company has reached a historical high of 10.63 million global VIP members, with a paid penetration rate of 4.27%, up from 3.7% at the end of 2023 [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 34.24 billion, 43.29 billion, and 54.47 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.09 billion, 6.86 billion, and 9.09 billion RMB [4] - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 27.03%, 26.41%, and 25.84% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.11 RMB in 2024 to 0.20 RMB in 2026 [5]

汽车 /行业投资策略周报 / 2024.06.13 汽车行业周报 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 乘用车期待政策发力，LNG 重卡终端实销较好 最近12月市场表现 核心观点 ❖ 板块表现： 汽车 沪深300 上证指数 6月3日-6月7日沪深300指数涨幅-0.41%，申万行业指数中，一级行业汽车 11% 相对收益为-1.79%，二级行业中，汽车零部件相对收益为-2.00%，汽车服务相 5% 对收益为-5.57%，摩托车及其他相对收益为-4.07%，乘用车相对收益为-1.36%， -1% 商用车相对收益为0.33%。 -8% -14% ❖ 子行业观点： -20% 乘用车：据乘联会数据，5月1-31日，乘用车市场零售168.5万辆，同比下降 3%，环比增长10%，今年以来累计零售805.2万辆，同比增长5%；5月1-31 日，全国乘用车厂商批发201.0万辆，同比增长0%，环比增长3%，今年以来 分析师 邢重阳 SAC证书编号：S0160522110003 累计批发956万辆，同比增长8%。5月1-31日，新能源车市场零售79万辆， xingcy01@ctsec.com 同比增长36%，环比增长17%，今年 ...

作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格,并注册为证券分析师,具备专业胜任能力,保证报告所采用的数 据均来自合规渠道,分析逻辑甚于作者的职业理解。本报告济晰地反映了作者的研究观点,力求独立、客观和公正，结论 不受任何第三方的授意或影响,作者也不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。 ● 资质声明 ● 行业评级 7 财通证券股份有限公司具备中国证券监督管理委员会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格。 ● 公司评级 ● 免责声明 核心通胀稳步回落。5月美国 CPI 同比增速录得 3.3%,较上月回落 0.1 个百分点。 5 月核心 CPI 同比增速进一步降至 3.4%,已连续 14个月下行。美国通胀压力持 续缓解,其中食品、核心商品和核心服务项通胀均有回落,仅能源项对同比增速 贡献仍然较大。 首先,商品通胀稳步下行。5月服装价格环比转负,此前已三个月连续上涨,新车 价格下降,而二手车价格涨幅不及去年同期。随着工资增速放缓、超额储蓄正在 下降,美国居民消费活动有所放缓,未来商品通胀或延续回落。 其次,住房继续带动核心服务项回落。核心服务中权重较大的业主等价租金增速 仍在下行,从房价和市场租金 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates once this year, with a projected cut of 25 basis points (bp) [3] - The current target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 5.25%-5.5% [3] - The median forecast for the 2024 target rate is 5.1%, indicating a slight increase from March [3] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - The Fed has raised its inflation forecast for 2024, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) expected to be 2.6% [4] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at 4% [4] - Recent data shows a gradual decline in core Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth, indicating easing price pressures [3] Group 3: Economic Growth - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 is maintained at 2.1%, reflecting steady economic activity [4] - Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is continuing at a robust pace, although it is expected to be lower than last year's levels [4] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates a slightly pessimistic outlook, with most regions reporting only modest economic growth [22] Group 4: Market Reactions and Risks - Market expectations for a September rate cut have slightly decreased from 60% to 57% following the Fed's announcement [5] - High interest rates and strict credit conditions may continue to suppress credit growth and impact real estate sales and business investments [5] - Risks include potential unexpected increases in inflation, tighter monetary policy, and greater-than-expected economic downturns [28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The beer industry is undergoing structural upgrades driven by both supply and demand sides, with innovation and cost pressures pushing companies towards higher quality products [9][18] - The structural upgrade has not yet reached a bottleneck, with significant room for growth in high-end products compared to international markets [37][48] - The focus for future growth will be on product matrices and large single products, catering to various price segments and consumption scenarios [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Structural Upgrades - Structural upgrades are driven by supply-side innovations and demand-side changes, with companies focusing on high-end product offerings to improve profitability [9][10] - The beer market in China is still in the early stages of high-end product adoption, with significant growth potential in craft beer [9][18] 2. Where is the Ceiling for Structural Upgrades? - The high-end beer market share in China is still low compared to international standards, indicating substantial growth potential [37][48] - The focus should be on upgrading the mid-range price segment and optimizing low-end products, as well as maintaining investment in high-end brands [48] 3. Product Matrix vs. Large Single Products - The future strategy for the beer industry should involve a comprehensive product matrix that covers different price segments and consumption scenarios [3][9] - The immediate focus should be on high-end and super high-end beer sales in dining channels, which have shown significant growth [24][25] 4. Investment Recommendations - The seasonal demand is expected to boost beer sales, and ongoing structural upgrades are likely to enhance profit margins [3][4] - Key recommendations include increasing holdings in Qingdao Beer, with attention to Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer [3][4]

本次会议紧面向财通证券的受邀嘉宾在任何情况下财通证券研究人员及演讲嘉宾所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议 投资者应充分了解各类投资风险自主做出决策并自行承担投资风险未经财通证券及演讲嘉宾书面授权许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发复制引用会议的内容与观点包括不得制作镜像及指向链接不得传播音频视频图片文字等内容如有上述行为财通证券保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 各位投资者大家上午好我是台通汽车的分析师李博一同在线的还有我们汽车团队的手机分析师姓崇洋今天我们也是很荣幸的邀请到了东方集团股份的赵总来跟我们再更新一下公司的一个近期的经营情况首先我们要不先请赵总先简单跟我们就再回顾一下咱们一季度或者是一到五月份 目前的一些像这种销售啊包括我们的这个合资以及自主包括这个中卡这几个方面的一个进展呗好的好的好的各位投资者大家上午好那首先的话我就简单来介绍一下我们公司5月份的一个情况吧那么昨天的话也是发了这个产出的快报 截止到5月份呢我們累計的一個總體的銷量是81萬2那麼同比的話是有一個略微的一個6%的一個增長那麼如果拆開來看的話主要增長的來源的話首先第一是這個合資的一個穩定東風日產和東風本田基本上都是穩定在了一個相對來說比 ...