Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - The breeding industry chain shows continued prosperity, with pig farming expected to rebound in 2024 due to a gradual recovery in prices and declining costs, leading to significant profit elasticity for enterprises [4][17]. - The poultry farming sector is stable, with expectations of sufficient supply in 2025, particularly for white feather chickens, while the yellow feather chicken market remains tight [4]. - The feed industry is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in pig farming, with sales expected to continue improving in 2025 [4]. - The animal health sector is projected to see a recovery in demand, with new product launches expected to enhance growth opportunities [4]. - The seed industry is witnessing steady progress in the commercialization of genetically modified crops, with leading companies poised to benefit from this trend [4]. - The pet industry is experiencing robust growth in the domestic market, with a focus on companies that can leverage their supply chain and marketing advantages [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The pig price is expected to rebound in 2024, with average prices projected at 14.9, 16.3, and 19.6 CNY/kg for the first three quarters respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.8% in Q3 [4][17]. - The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually in 2025, but overall growth will be limited due to slow recovery in breeding capacity [26][35]. 2. Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken breeding segment is expected to maintain high sales levels in 2024, with a stable supply anticipated for 2025 [4]. - The yellow feather chicken market is expected to remain tight due to slow capacity growth [4]. 3. Feed Industry - The feed sales are expected to recover in 2025, benefiting from the positive outlook in pig farming [4]. - Leading companies in the feed sector are expected to maintain significant competitive advantages [4]. 4. Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to recover, with new product launches likely to drive growth [4]. - Companies with strong R&D capabilities are expected to build stronger competitive advantages [4]. 5. Seed Industry - The commercialization of genetically modified corn is expected to expand the market and reduce costs [4]. - Leading companies are anticipated to benefit from mergers and acquisitions in the seed industry [4]. 6. Pet Industry - The domestic pet market is in a growth phase, with new brands emerging and product innovations occurring [4]. - Companies with strong financial backing and supply chain advantages are expected to enhance their market share [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3][7]. Core Insights - The passenger car market showed significant improvement during the National Day holiday, with October passenger car sales increasing by 11.3% year-on-year. The total retail sales for October reached 2.261 million units, with a year-to-date total of 17.835 million units, reflecting a 3.2% increase compared to the previous year. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 52.9% in October [5][14][17]. - Qualcomm launched two new automotive chip products at the Snapdragon Summit, significantly enhancing performance with a threefold increase in speed for the Oryon CPU and Adreno GPU, and a twelvefold increase for the NPU [6][36]. - WeRide, a leading autonomous driving company, successfully listed on NASDAQ, becoming the first publicly traded robotaxi company in China, with a focus on commercializing autonomous taxi services by early 2025 [6][38]. Summary by Sections October Car Market - The passenger car market experienced a notable increase in sales during the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% in October. The retail sales for the month reached 2.261 million units, marking a 7.2% month-on-month increase. Year-to-date sales totaled 17.835 million units, up 3.2% year-on-year. Traditional fuel vehicle sales saw a decline of 16.1% year-on-year, while NEVs achieved a penetration rate of 52.9% [14][17][22]. Connectivity Index and WeRide Listing - The connectivity index reached a new high in September 2024, with the new four modernization index at 53.6. The index for electrification was 53.3, while the connectivity index was 24.4. WeRide's successful listing on NASDAQ marks a significant milestone for the autonomous driving sector in China [26][38]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in automotive intelligence and leading software capabilities, including Ruiming Technology, Huace Navigation, Desay SV, Joyson Electronics, Zhongke Chuangda, and Jingwei Hirain [7][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [3]. Core Insights - Significant signs of recovery in the real estate market are observed, with a series of tax policies introduced to stabilize the sector, potentially boosting demand for construction materials [6][16][19]. - The cement prices are expected to stabilize and may experience slight upward fluctuations, while the glass market shows steady trading with slight inventory reductions [7][35][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the building materials sector, particularly in the context of recent policy changes aimed at stimulating the real estate market [6][19]. Summary by Sections Consumer Building Materials - The introduction of real estate tax policies is expected to enhance buyer confidence, particularly in first-time home purchases, with reduced transaction tax rates for properties under 140 square meters [6][16][17]. - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization in October, with a reported 7.8 billion square meters of new residential sales, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year decline, but a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [18]. - The report suggests focusing on consumer building materials companies such as Beixin Materials, Weixing New Materials, and Tubao for long-term investments, while also considering companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Sankeshu for short-term rebounds [6][19]. Cyclical Materials - Cement prices are currently stable, with a slight decrease in national cement shipment rates by approximately 1.5 percentage points. Some regions are initiating new price increases of 30-50 yuan per ton [7][38]. - The report indicates that the glass market is experiencing stable prices, with slight fluctuations based on regional demand and supply dynamics [39]. - The report highlights the potential for increased profitability for leading cement companies due to high dividend yields and low valuations, with companies like Conch Cement showing a price-to-book ratio below 0.70 [35][38]. New Materials - The report notes that the price of fiberglass is under pressure, particularly for coarse yarn, while fine yarn prices remain stable. The market for carbon fiber is also experiencing low transaction volumes [8][45]. - The report indicates that the electronic yarn market is stable, with expectations of increased supply, although current inventory levels may limit price adjustments [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a significant focus on AI capabilities and the development of terminal applications, with a notable surge in AI-related innovations [6][55]. - The semiconductor sector has faced considerable declines, with the semiconductor index dropping by 4.50% during the week of November 11 to November 15, 2024 [18]. - The report highlights the rapid growth in the new energy vehicle sector, with production and sales reaching new highs in October 2024 [26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The electronic index fell by 3.77%, mirroring declines in the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, with the semiconductor sector experiencing the largest drop [18]. - The report notes that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased by 8.64% during the same period [22]. Industry Data - New energy vehicles continue to show robust growth, achieving record monthly production and sales figures in October 2024 [26]. - DRAM spot prices have seen a slight decline, while NAND prices have also decreased [26]. Key Industry News - Baidu announced the launch of "Xiao Du AI Glasses," entering the AI glasses market [47]. - Tianyue Advanced unveiled the industry's first 300mm silicon carbide substrate at the Semicon Europe 2024 exhibition, marking a significant advancement in substrate technology [48]. - Moer Thread has initiated the A-share listing process, focusing on GPU technology for AI computing [51]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities within the AI computing and terminal industry chain, particularly in light of the recent popularity of AI glasses [6][55]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing and related sectors due to geopolitical constraints [6][55].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is entering a rapid growth phase with significant potential in the NHL and autoimmune drug markets, particularly with the BTK inhibitor applications [3][4]. - The management team is experienced and has established an integrated R&D and production platform, with a focus on innovative drug development [4][18]. - The company has a robust pipeline with 13 drugs in development and has achieved rapid revenue growth driven by its lead product, Aobutini [5][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive innovative biotech firm focused on oncology and autoimmune diseases, with a fully integrated biopharmaceutical platform [18]. - Founded in 2015, the company has developed a strong R&D capability and has multiple promising drug candidates [18]. Management and Shareholder Structure - The company has a dispersed shareholding structure with no controlling shareholder, ensuring diverse governance [20]. R&D and Clinical Development - The company has established six core technology platforms for drug development and has over 30 clinical trials ongoing globally [53]. - Aobutini, the lead product, has shown significant market potential with multiple approved indications and rapid sales growth [60]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue, with projected revenues of 1.051 billion, 1.232 billion, and 1.433 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6]. - The net loss has narrowed, indicating improving profitability, with a forecasted EPS of -0.20 yuan for 2024 [6][5]. Market Potential - The NHL market is expected to grow significantly, with the number of patients in China projected to reach 730,000 by 2030 [3][69]. - BTK inhibitors are increasingly replacing traditional chemotherapy in NHL treatment, indicating a shift in treatment paradigms [71]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Aobutini has substantial growth potential in the hematological malignancy indications, supporting the "Accumulate" rating [5].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Positive** rating for the computer industry [3] Core Views - The computer industry is experiencing a multi-dimensional resonance driven by technological innovation, economic cycles, industrial policies, and CapEx trends [5] - The industry is transitioning from the PC era to the AI era, with the Gartner Hype Cycle and Moore's Law playing pivotal roles in shaping the tech landscape [5] - The report highlights that AI, domestic computing power, and intelligent driving are key drivers of the industry's future growth [6] - The industry is expected to benefit from a double-click effect due to external and domestic interest rate cuts, low fund holdings, and the premium on domestic assets [6] Key Summaries by Section 1. Multi-dimensional Resonance in the Computer Industry - The Gartner Hype Cycle remains a constant in the evolution from the PC era to the AI era, with technological cycles shortening due to the "Super Moore's Law" [25] - Tech giants' CapEx is leading the industry direction, while economic cycles guide mid-term fluctuations, and industrial policies serve as crucial levers [25] - Historical trends show that macroeconomic cycles significantly impact the computer industry, with fiscal and industrial policies playing a key role during downturns [43] 2. Interest Rate Cuts and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts provide a favorable external environment for the computer industry's valuation expansion [54] - Domestic interest rate cuts and improved liquidity are expected to support the industry's growth, with historical parallels seen in 2015 and 2019 [66] - The computer industry's PE (TTM) has entered a marginal expansion phase, with valuations expected to rise further due to AI, domestic computing power, and intelligent driving trends [59] 3. Alpha and Beta Tracks - AI is a critical driver of market growth, with scaling laws driving demand for computing power and domestic innovation [97] - AI applications are improving in quality, with productivity tools like Office and PDF being key areas of focus [7] - AI hardware innovations are emerging across various sectors, including PCs, smartphones, and robotics, while AI's energy consumption is driving demand for clean energy [7] - Smart driving, industrial intelligence, and financial IT are expected to exhibit strong Alpha characteristics, while sectors like Huawei's HarmonyOS and low-altitude economy are supported by strong policy backing [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI server-related companies and domestic AI chip manufacturers, such as **HaiGuang Information**, **Cambricon**, and **Inspur Information** [123] - Companies in the cooling, power supply, and high-performance storage sectors are also recommended due to the increasing demand for power and storage driven by computing power iterations [123] 5. Market Performance and Fund Holdings - The computer industry's fund holdings reached a four-year low in 3Q2024, with a marginal improvement in risk appetite [72] - The industry's PE has been grinding at a low level but is expected to rise rapidly due to policy-driven liquidity improvements [85] - High trading volumes in the bull market are amplifying the industry's performance, with the computer sector's trading activity showing relative strength [89]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that favorable policies are continuously promoting a recovery in domestic demand [4] - The tourism sector is expected to maintain its prosperity in the fourth quarter due to extended holidays and increased interest in winter sports tourism [4] - The report emphasizes the recovery of average transaction value in the duty-free sector, particularly in Hainan, which is anticipated to boost sales [4][41] - The hotel industry shows strong performance in store openings and structure, with a focus on improving management efficiency [5] - The education sector is benefiting from stable employment opportunities in public service positions, with an expected increase in recruitment for civil service exams [5][60] - The medical beauty sector is poised for recovery alongside consumer sentiment and policy support [5] - The beauty industry is showing signs of recovery during promotional seasons, with domestic brands gaining traction [6] - The retail sector is advised to focus on low-valuation opportunities, especially in cross-border e-commerce brands [6] Summary by Sections Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free sales sentiment index was 23.6 during the off-peak season, indicating short-term pressure on customer flow [21] - Hainan's airports recorded a total of 451,000 passengers from November 4 to November 10, 2024, recovering to 98.4% of 2019 levels [23] Hotel Industry - National occupancy rate (OCC) was 55.46%, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 185.15 yuan and revenue per available room (RevPAR) of 102.68 yuan [44] - Major hotel groups like Hyatt and Marriott are expanding their presence in the Greater China region, with strong momentum in store openings [52] Education Sector - The report notes a positive policy environment for the education sector, particularly for K12 and public service training [55] - The number of candidates for civil service exams is expected to reach a record high, with a 12.6% year-on-year increase in the number of applicants [60] Medical Beauty Sector - The medical beauty sector is expected to recover with the implementation of supportive policies and improved consumer sentiment [5] Beauty Industry - The beauty industry is experiencing a recovery during promotional seasons, with domestic brands showing resilience [6] Retail Sector - The retail sector is advised to focus on low-valuation opportunities, particularly in cross-border e-commerce brands [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is maintained as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index dropping by 8.92% this week, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 3.29%, resulting in a 5.62 percentage point underperformance compared to the CSI 300 Index, ranking last among 31 sectors [4][17] - Recent policies aimed at reducing housing costs, such as tax reductions for home purchases, are expected to stimulate market demand [6][50] Sales Overview - In the week of November 8 to November 14, 2024, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 2.27 million square meters, a decrease of 4.4% month-on-month but an increase of 13.1% year-on-year [5][22] - The transaction area for second-hand housing in 17 monitored cities was 2.71 million square meters, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 41.2% year-on-year [5][25] - Year-to-date, the total transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 82.98 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.3% [22] City-Level Sales Performance - In first-tier cities, the transaction area for new housing was 760,000 square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 52.5% [5][22] - In second-tier cities, the transaction area was 1.07 million square meters, down 14.0% month-on-month and down 5.4% year-on-year [5][22] - In third-tier cities, the transaction area was 450,000 square meters, down 2.0% month-on-month but up 16.9% year-on-year [5][22] Inventory and Depletion - The depleting cycle for new housing in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou is 20.92 months, 11.65 months, and 15.22 months respectively [40][43] - The inventory for new housing in Beijing is 1,034,000 square meters, while in Shenzhen it is 411,000 square meters [43] Key News Tracking - New tax policies have been introduced, reducing the deed tax for homes under 140 square meters by 1% [50][51] - The National Taxation Administration has lowered the minimum pre-collection rate for land value-added tax by 0.5 percentage points [54] - New regulations in Guangzhou allow for the separate sale of underground parking spaces [55] - The city of Changsha has clarified that newly built commercial housing can be traded once the property rights certificate is obtained [56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [3]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a continued decline in prices due to sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. However, medium to long-term profitability is expected to persist for enterprises in this sector [5][40]. - The poultry farming sector shows stable prices for white chickens, with significant increases in breeding and self-breeding quantities [5][57]. - The animal health industry is anticipated to see a rebound in demand, driven by the pig farming cycle, with companies actively developing new products [5]. - The seed industry is progressing in the commercialization of genetically modified crops, with a focus on major varieties benefiting from early advantages [5][64]. - The pet food sector is witnessing strong growth, particularly in exports and during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating robust market potential [5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Prices for pigs continue to decline, with the average price on November 14 being 16.63 CNY/kg, down 2.92% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows is recovering slowly, with a month-on-month increase of 0.39% in October [5][49][40]. - The overall supply is adequate, but demand remains weak, leading to cautious industry sentiment [5][40]. Poultry Farming - The breeding quantity for white chickens in October was 190,600 sets, showing a month-on-month increase of 38.12% and a year-on-year increase of 81.52% [5][57]. - The average price for white feathered chickens was stable at 7.64 CNY/kg as of November 15 [5][59]. Animal Health - The industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with sales data showing a significant increase in the third quarter of 2024 [5]. - Companies are focusing on new product development, which is likely to enhance growth opportunities [5]. Seed Industry - The USDA report indicates adjustments in global corn and soybean production, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified varieties [5][64][65][66]. - Companies with a diverse portfolio of major varieties are expected to benefit the most [5][64]. Pet Food - Export data for pet food shows improvement, with retail packaging for dog and cat food exports increasing by 37.9% and 28.4% respectively from January to September 2024 [5]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw over 50% year-on-year growth in transaction amounts for pet food [5].

农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略月报 / 2024.11.17 供应充足猪价震荡下行，商品代苗价高位震荡 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -16% -7% 2% 10% 19% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《需求支撑不足猪价下行，10 月产能 回补仍慢》 2024-11-10 2. 《养殖链业绩环比改善，宠物食品盈 利能力增强》 2024-11-08 3. 《需求预期转好，畜禽价格支撑增强》 2024-11-04 ❖ 风险提示：畜禽价格波动风险，食品安全风险，动物疾病不确定风险，极端 灾害风险，饲料原材料波动风险 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|---------------------------|-----------------------|----------------------|-------|-------------------- ...