Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, despite ongoing supply pressures and potential acceleration in capacity reduction [1][5][6]. Group 1: Pig Farming - Supply pressures continue to be significant, with a reported decrease in the number of breeding sows by 0.77% month-on-month in October [5][17]. - The average price of market pigs has declined to 12.16 CNY/kg as of November 6, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.49% [5][26]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses reported at -89.21 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -175.54 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 7 [5][37]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers remained stable at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7, with a reported loss of -1.25 CNY per bird [5][38]. - The number of breeding chickens has increased significantly, with a 143.18% month-on-month rise in the number of grandparent stock updated in October [5][38]. Group 3: Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by a recovery in breeding cycles and an increase in inventory levels [5][47]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, which may enhance the sector's growth potential [5][47]. Group 4: Seed Industry - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have shown slight declines, with wheat at 2487 CNY/ton, soybean meal at 3098 CNY/ton, and corn at 2239 CNY/ton as of November 7 [5][51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology in the seed industry [5][51]. Group 5: Pet Industry - Pet food exports amounted to 823 million CNY in September, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while domestic sales continue to grow, with a 3% increase across major e-commerce platforms [5][56][59]. - The report suggests that companies with a lower proportion of export business may be less affected by tariff disruptions, while those focusing on domestic growth are likely to enhance their market share [5][56][59].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - To reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, the official interpretation corresponds to a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.7% or a real GDP growth rate of 4.16% in the next 10 years. The lower - bound requirements for the real GDP growth rate during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are around 4.5% and 4% respectively. The relationship between economic growth and interest rates is positive, but their relative positions are not fixed. Considering inflation, the nominal GDP growth rate in the next 10 years may range from 3% to 6%, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan may range from 1.2% to 2.4%. Based on the neutral interest rate theory, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate center is 1.5%, and the low point can be lower. The economy may still be in a weak recovery this quarter, and the bond market is in a favorable position. With the upcoming implementation of the new regulations on fund sales, it is recommended to seize the opportunity to go long, and interest rates are expected to hit a new low by the end of the year [2]. - There are two ways to view China's economic growth rate in the next decade: reaching a per - capita GDP of $20,000 and doubling the per - capita GDP compared to 2020 (at 2020 constant prices), corresponding to a nominal growth rate of 3.70% and a real growth rate of 4.16% respectively. By back - calculation, the average annual GDP growth rates during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are about 4.5% and 4.0% [2]. - Comparing with overseas countries, interest rates are positively correlated with nominal GDP growth rates, but there is no consistent conclusion on their relative positions and the spread level, which reflects the strength of endogenous demand and the inflation center. Currently, the quarterly average of China's nominal GDP interest rate minus the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is about 2%, which is slightly higher than the overseas level this year but neutral compared to overseas history. Combining the golden rule and the neutral interest rate theory, China's actual situation is "real GDP growth rate - 4+1" [2]. - Assuming different inflation scenarios (negative, slightly positive, and normal), the nominal GDP growth rate may range from 3% to 6%. From the lower - bound perspective, if the nominal GDP decreases by 1 percentage point, the interest rate decline should be less than 1 percentage point, with the interest rate lows during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans at 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. From the upper - bound perspective, considering the relative position between the nominal GDP high point in 2021 and the interest rate, the interest rate high point is about 2.4% [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Potential Growth Rate and Appropriate Interest Rate Level 1.1 Future Growth Rates in the Next Two Five - Year Plans - Referring to the 2035 long - term goal, two assumptions are considered: reaching a per - capita GDP of $20,000 by 2035, with a 3.90% annual compound growth rate of per - capita nominal GDP in the next 10 years; doubling the per - capita GDP compared to 2020 (at 2020 constant prices), with a 4.36% annual compound growth rate of per - capita real GDP. Considering the population decline, the average annual GDP growth rate requirements by 2035 are a nominal growth rate of 3.70% and a real growth rate of 4.16%. The lower - bound requirements for the average annual real GDP growth rate during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are about 4.5% and 4.0% respectively [6][7][8] 1.2 Relationship between Economy and Interest Rates - **Overseas Comparison**: Static analysis shows a significant positive correlation between GDP growth rates and broad - spectrum interest rates. Dynamically, the centers of nominal GDP growth rates and interest rates are not completely consistent. The relative position between interest rates and nominal GDP depends on monetary policy goals and central bank attitudes, reflecting the strength of endogenous demand and the inflation center. There is no unified conclusion on the appropriate spread between nominal GDP growth rates and long - term interest rates. Different periods in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan have different spreads. In China, long - term interest rates are always lower than the nominal GDP level, showing financial repression, and the spread has been compressing in the long - term but fluctuates annually. In the short - term, the spread is positively correlated with the nominal GDP growth rate [12][13][17] - **Theoretical Level**: Based on the "golden rule" of economic growth theory, the long - term interest rate should be slightly lower than or equal to a country's GDP growth rate. Currently, LPR and general loan interest rates are comparable to the GDP growth rate, while the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate is significantly lower. According to the neutral interest rate theory, emerging market countries' neutral interest rates are about 4 percentage points lower than the GDP growth rate, and nominal interest rates need to add 2% inflation expectations. In China, the long - term interest rate is measured by "real GDP growth rate - 3", indicating that the real GDP growth rate may not reflect the potential growth rate or the inflation expectation is about 1%. Assuming a 4.5% real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter, the long - term interest rate center can be estimated at 1.5% [22] 1.3 Impact of Declining Economic Growth on Interest Rates - Considering different inflation scenarios (inflation returning to 1 - 2% or higher, 0 - 1%, and remaining negative), the nominal GDP growth rate will change accordingly, and interest rates will fluctuate with the nominal GDP growth rate. In the most optimistic scenario for the bond market during the 15th Five - Year Plan, if the nominal and real GDP growth rate centers decline by 0.5 percentage points, the long - term bond interest rate decline will be less than 0.5 percentage points, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is unlikely to be lower than 1.2%. In the pessimistic scenario, if the nominal GDP rebounds, and assuming a 6% rebound high point, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate high point will be below 2.4%. According to the neutral interest rate theory, if the real GDP growth rate center reaches 4%, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate center can gradually decline to 1% [24][25] 2. Central Bank Bond Purchases and Bond Market Interest Rates - From November 3rd to 7th, the yield of the 10Y active Treasury bond fluctuated upward. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1.88BP to 1.81%, and the 10 - year national development bond yield increased by 2.35BP to 1.95%. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond term spread narrowed by 0.31BP to 40.97BP, while the 1 - year and 10 - year national development bond term spread remained at 33.68BP. Various factors such as central bank reverse - repurchase net withdrawal, bond purchase announcements, stock market fluctuations, and policy rumors affected the bond market during the week [27][28][29] 3. Decline in Wealth Management Product Scale - As of November 2nd, the wealth management product scale was 32.52 billion yuan, with a weekly decline of 74.79 million yuan. From October 27th to November 2nd, the new - issue wealth management product scale was 254.44 million yuan. In November, the scale of fixed - income products decreased. By product type, cash - management products decreased by 76 million yuan, fixed - income products decreased by 290 million yuan, and others had different changes. By product risk, low - risk and medium - low - risk products decreased, while medium - risk and medium - high - risk products had small increases. The net - break rate decreased last week. As of November 5th, the 7 - day average annualized yields of money funds and cash - management products were 1.08% and 1.3% respectively [33][34] 4. Decline in Duration and Stable Disagreement Degree - From November 3rd to 7th, the duration of public funds decreased by 0.04 to 2.38 compared to October 31st, with a weekly average of 2.41. The public fund duration disagreement degree on November 7th remained the same as on October 31st at 0.36 [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Views - Important news: A database for performance comparison benchmarks of public funds is coming; the scale of bond ETFs has exceeded 70 billion yuan; the MSCI index has been adjusted, with 26 Chinese stocks newly included [3] - Market review: During the week of 20251103 - 20251107, major broad - based A - share indices showed an upward trend, while most overseas indices showed a downward trend [3][17] - Fund market review: Half of the active equity funds achieved positive returns this week, with the median interval return of active equity funds at 0.19%. Cyclical and financial real - estate themed funds performed prominently [3] - ETF fund statistics: The top three ETF categories in terms of performance this week were H - share broad - based, manufacturing, and cyclical themed ETFs. There were 490 ETFs with net capital inflows and 516 with net outflows [3] - Fund market dynamics: 52 public funds had new fund manager appointments, 48 new public funds were established, 44 public funds started their initial issuance, and 56 public funds were waiting to be issued [3] - Equity fund issuance tracking: The issuance scale of equity funds this week was 21.836 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.759 billion yuan from last week. There are still 276 newly issued funds in the position - building period [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important News 1.1 Market Dynamics - A database for performance comparison benchmarks of public funds is coming. The draft for soliciting opinions on the operation of the benchmark element library has been issued. The benchmark library mainly includes stock indices, divided into two categories, with 69 in the first category and 72 in the second [8] - The number of newly issued funds this year has reached a new high in the past three years. As of November 3, more than 1300 new funds have been issued this year, with over 700 new stock - type funds [9] - The ETF product of Jiaoyin Schroeder Fund has been approved and is expected to start issuing in December. It is the first time in 14 years that the company has restarted the layout of the ETF product line [10][11] 1.2 Product Hotspots - The scale of bond ETFs has exceeded 70 billion yuan. As of October 31, the scale reached 70.0044 billion yuan. The scale of single - product and the management scale of some fund companies have also increased significantly [11][12] - The compilation of the China Cheng Tong Brand Value Index has been launched, aiming to guide capital to state - owned central enterprises and benchmark private enterprises with core brand advantages [12] - New pharmaceutical indices have been frequently launched, such as the China Securities Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Innovative Drug Index and the China Securities Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Medical Device Index [12] 1.3 Overseas/Offshore Markets - The MSCI index has been adjusted, with 69 new inclusions and 64 exclusions in the MSCI Global Standard Index. In the MSCI China Index, 26 Chinese stocks were newly included and 20 were excluded [14] - Two Brazilian ETFs were snapped up by funds. They reached their fundraising scale limits on the first day of issuance, with the confirmed ratio of Huaxia Fund's Brazilian ETF at about 11.5% and that of E Fund at about 11.8% [15][16] - Public QDII funds are gradually replenishing their positions in US stocks, which has reduced the drawdown risk of some funds during the recent adjustment of the Hong Kong stock market [17] 2. Market Review - A - share market: Major broad - based indices showed an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08% to 3997.56, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.82% to 4678.79, etc. [17] - Overseas indices: Most showed a downward trend. The Nikkei 225 index fell 4.07%, the South Korean Composite Index fell 3.74%, and the Nasdaq index fell 3.04% [17] - Industry performance: The power equipment and new energy, and steel industries led the gains. The top five industries in the CITIC First - level Industry Index were power equipment and new energy (5.10%), steel (4.57%), etc. [21] 3. Fund Market Review 3.1 Active Equity Fund Performance - In the recent week, cyclical and financial real - estate themed funds performed prominently, with average interval returns of 1.55% and 0.78% respectively. In the recent three months, technology and cyclical themed funds led, with average interval returns of 25.67% and 21.54% respectively [24] - Half of the active equity funds achieved positive returns this week, with the median interval return at 0.19%. Cyclical and financial real - estate themed funds had median interval returns of 1.62% and 1.19% respectively [27] 3.2 High - performing Fund Performance Statistics - The Galaxy Core Advantage A (011629.OF) performed outstandingly this week, with an interval return of 11.65%. The report also listed the top five funds in each industry theme [29][30] 4. ETF Fund Statistics 4.1 ETF Fund Performance - In terms of the average interval return this week, the top three ETF categories were H - share broad - based (1.77%), manufacturing (1.62%), and cyclical themed ETFs (1.48%). In the recent month, the top three were international broad - based (7.11%), cyclical (5.51%), and commodity futures themed ETFs (4.49%) [31] 4.2 ETF Fund Capital Flow Statistics - In terms of net capital inflows this week, the top categories were technology (9.242 billion yuan), pharmaceuticals (9.059 billion yuan), and financial real - estate (7.223 billion yuan). The category with the largest net outflows was A - share broad - based (18.939 billion yuan) [34] - There were 490 ETFs with net capital inflows and 516 with net outflows. The top three ETFs with net inflows were Guotai CSI All - Index Securities Company ETF, Haifutong CSI Short - Term Financing ETF, etc. The top three with net outflows were Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300 ETF, Huaxia SSE 50 ETF, etc. [37] 4.3 ETF Fund Premium and Discount Statistics - As of November 7, 2025, the top three ETFs in terms of premium rate were Huatai - Peregrine China Securities Korea Exchange China - South Korea Semiconductor ETF, Huaan Mitsubishi UFJ Nikkei 225 ETF, etc. The top three in terms of discount rate were E Fund CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect China 100 ETF, Huaxia SSE Smart - Selection Science and Technology Innovation Value 50 Strategy ETF, etc. [39] 5. Fund Market Dynamics 5.1 Fund Manager Changes - 52 public funds had new fund manager appointments, involving 46 fund managers from 35 fund management companies. The top three fund management companies in terms of the number of affected funds were Fullgoal Fund, Bosera Fund, etc. [41] - 57 public funds had fund manager departures, involving 35 fund managers from 28 fund management companies. The top three fund management companies in terms of the number of affected funds were Yongying Fund, Dacheng Fund, etc. [42] 5.2 Newly Established Funds This Week - A total of 48 new public funds were established this week, with a combined issuance share of 26.5 billion [3] 5.3 Funds with Initial Issuance This Week - 44 public funds started their initial issuance this week, with the largest number being passive index funds (14) [3] 5.4 Funds Waiting to be Issued - As of November 9, 2025, there were 56 public funds waiting to be issued [3] 5.5 Equity Fund Issuance Tracking - The issuance scale of equity funds this week was 21.836 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.759 billion yuan from last week. There are still 276 newly issued funds in the position - building period, with an estimated 29.71% having a position - building ratio of less than 5% and an estimated 82.761 billion yuan of funds yet to be invested [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning for the end of the year, suggesting that bank dividends are a preferred observation strategy if the market experiences a pause in volatility [4] - It highlights the need to wait for a renewed confidence in high-growth sectors over the next 2-3 years, particularly in technology and services [5][10] - The report reviews the market's performance, noting a significant increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, which has risen over 10% to above 3800 points since the mid-year strategy [6][9] Market Overview - The report indicates that the market may experience a phase of consolidation due to external factors such as weakening U.S. economic indicators and concerns over employment, which could lead to a risk-off sentiment affecting A-shares [6][9] - It notes that the market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with trading volumes not yet activated and sectors undergoing accelerated rotation [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a proactive approach to market conditions, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, particularly in real estate, resource commodities, and consumer sentiment [11][12] - It recommends monitoring high-growth sectors that are difficult to disprove, such as storage, domestic computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while waiting for a consensus on performance [12] Fund Flow Analysis - The report discusses the potential for fund managers to reduce positions as the year-end approaches, indicating a trend towards profit-taking [13] - It highlights that leverage funds are still flowing in but at a slower pace, suggesting a need to watch for a potential slowdown in inflows [13][28] Calendar Effect Insights - The report analyzes the calendar effect, noting that the market generally trends upward in early November but may weaken following economic meetings [14][31] - It provides insights into market performance across different styles and sectors, indicating a shift towards dividend and quality stocks post-meeting [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Insights - The company has a dual-driven business model combining intelligent equipment and electric motor control components, with a focus on technological leadership and high R&D investment [8][12]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 4.273 billion, 5.009 billion, and 5.701 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a substantial increase in net profit [7][45]. - The report highlights the company's strategic expansion into high-end markets and the improvement of its electric motor control business, which is expected to enhance profitability [8][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Equipment and Electric Motor Control Synergy - The company has established a dual-driven model with intelligent equipment and electric motor control components, serving major domestic and international automotive manufacturers [12][16]. - The management team consists of highly qualified professionals with advanced degrees in mechanical engineering, contributing to strong operational and technical capabilities [24][27]. 2. Intelligent Manufacturing Solutions - The company is recognized as an expert in intelligent manufacturing solutions, with extensive experience in robotics applications across various complex production scenarios [32][34]. - The integration of embodied intelligence into manufacturing processes is a key focus, aiming to enhance automation and efficiency [33][36]. 3. Improvement in Electric Motor Control Business - The company has seen a significant increase in the delivery of electric motor control components, with a year-on-year growth of 89.39% in the first half of 2025 [8][41]. - The expansion into mid-to-high-end vehicle markets is expected to drive revenue and profitability improvements in the electric motor control segment [41][39]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth trajectory with expected revenues of 4.273 billion, 5.009 billion, and 5.701 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 21%, 17%, and 14% [7][45]. - The gross margin is projected to improve slightly, with expectations of 16.2%, 16.7%, and 17.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, driven by enhanced customer sales and new business developments [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - Supply and demand are rebalancing, with capital expenditure peaks passing and demand gradually recovering under policy and consumption recovery [5][10] - New growth drivers are emerging through product innovation and channel expansion, breaking the price competition [5][36] - The industry logic is strengthening, with the standardization of prepared dishes and an increase in chain rates driving industry concentration [5][36] - Investment recommendations focus on the supply chain opportunities in the restaurant sector, highlighting major companies and smaller firms with growth potential [5][36] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Rebalancing - Capital expenditure in the industry has significantly declined after 2023, with a focus on improving capacity utilization [5][10] - The price war is gradually coming to an end, and the third quarter of 2025 may mark an operational turning point for the industry [5][22] - Demand is stabilizing, with restaurant openings and closures balancing out, and consumption showing resilience during peak holiday periods [5][26][27] New Growth Drivers - Companies are shifting focus from price competition to product innovation and channel expansion, with retail trends becoming more pronounced [5][36] - Major companies are launching new products and optimizing channels to adapt to the changing market landscape [5][44] Strengthening Industry Logic - Recent regulatory developments in prepared dishes are expected to raise industry entry barriers, benefiting compliant leading companies [5][36] - The chain rate in the restaurant sector is projected to increase from 19% in 2021 to 23% in 2024, indicating a trend towards consolidation [5][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major companies like Anjuke Food, Angel Yeast, and Haitian Flavoring, as well as smaller firms like Baoli Food and Lihigh Food for potential growth [5][36] - The overall market is expected to improve with a favorable chip structure and policy expectations [5][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Friday's marginal tightening of funds and the central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operations do not indicate a marginal shift in the central bank's attitude. Since June, liquidity has been mainly characterized by easing, and the number of optimistic funding indicators has further increased in November. The central bank's easing is gradually being realized, and DR001 could move towards 7 - day OMO - 20BP. For certificates of deposit, continue with the current allocation and wait for the capital gain game space after the expectation of interest rate cuts rises [4][5]. - The marginal tightening of funds on Friday and the central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operations are due to frictions in fund delivery, not a change in the central bank's attitude. With OMO returning to net investment, the probability of stable low - level funding prices is higher. The "shortening and lengthening" operation does not represent a change in the central bank's attitude. The central bank's policy is supportive, and it is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and the stability of funding prices at a low level [4]. 3. Summary by Related Directory 3.1. 1. Loose Policy is Being Realized, and Funding Prices are Becoming More Optimistic - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank adopted a "shortening and lengthening" approach. It carried out advance equal - volume roll - overs of repurchase agreements and continuously withdrew short - term liquidity while ensuring a proper level of overall liquidity. For example, on November 4, it announced bond - buying of 200 billion yuan in October, and on November 5, it advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase agreement due on November 7 [14]. - **Fund Quantity**: The bank's net lending ability is closely linked to the central bank's operations. Institutions slightly increased leverage. After the fiscal support at the beginning of the month and the injection of liquidity through bond - buying, the net lending of state - owned and joint - stock banks continued to rise. Institutions increased leverage due to low funding prices, and the segmentation of non - bank funds remained at a low level [14]. - **Funding Prices**: The performance of funding price indicators is more optimistic. DR001 was mostly stable at 1.31%, Shibor 3M continued to decline, and DR007 started to approach the 7 - day OMO rate. Since October, the proportion of DR001 weighted around 1.31% has become more concentrated, Shibor 3M has been on a downward trend since the central bank announced "restarting bond - buying" on October 28, and DR007 has shown a trend of approaching the 7 - day OMO rate [16]. - **Reasons for Friday's Marginal Tightening of Funds**: The marginal tightening of funds on November 7 was due to the friction in fund delivery. Although the central bank advanced the roll - over of the 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase agreement, the large - scale withdrawal of 7 - day liquidity caused short - term disturbances, but this does not represent a change in the central bank's attitude [18]. - **Analysis of the "Shortening and Lengthening" Operation**: Different from the period of financial de - leveraging from 2016 to 2017, the current central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operation is to inject medium - and long - term liquidity while reducing the price of relevant liquidity tools, which is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and the stability of funding prices at a low level [20][21]. - **Certificate of Deposit Situation**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of small and medium - sized banks on certificates of deposit decreased significantly. Non - bank institutions such as money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries were more active in trading before the bond - buying announcement. In the future, the lower limit of certificates of deposit is constrained by the non - cut of policy interest rates, but it is difficult for 1 - year certificates of deposit to be significantly higher than 1.63%. The current level of certificates of deposit can continue to be allocated [23][24]. 3.2. 2. Weekly Tracking of Funds and Certificates of Deposit and Key Matters - **Central Bank**: This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from reverse repurchases and advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 3 - month repurchase agreement. Next week, 49.58 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 100 billion yuan of repurchase agreement funds and 90 billion yuan of MLF due in November [32]. - **Government Bonds**: This week, the net financing of government bonds was 13.84 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.15576 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 83.4%, and a net payment of 3.68 billion yuan. Next week, the net financing will be 24.98 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.17987 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 85.1%, and a net payment of 36.92 billion yuan. There will be a 30 - year treasury bond issuance on November 14, and the issuance proportion of treasury bonds and local government bonds with a term of 10 years and above is about 31.03% and 73.00% respectively [32]. - **Bills**: After the month - end, the bill - boosting effect weakened, and bill interest rates generally increased. As of November 7, the 3 - month and 6 - month straight - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks all increased compared with October 31 [52]. - **Exchange Rate**: This week, the RMB depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar. The swap points of USDCNH/USDCNY were around 1400 points/1300 points. The central bank's regulation of the exchange rate was weak, with the mid - price of the US dollar against the RMB slightly depreciating, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 358 pips [54][58]. - **Fund Supply and Demand**: The net lending of state - owned banks increased, the net lending of money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries decreased, and most non - bank institutions increased leverage. Except for insurance, the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. Overnight funding prices slightly increased, and the 7 - day funding price decreased. Except for the last trading day, the funding feeling was loose [60][73]. - **Certificates of Deposit - Primary Market**: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 15.099 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 18.6%. State - owned banks' net financing turned positive, while joint - stock banks' net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of certificates of deposit increased, and the proportion of long - term certificate of deposit issuance by banks increased [78][80][82]. - **Certificates of Deposit - Secondary Market**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of banks on certificates of deposit decreased. Before the bond - buying announcement, trading activity was high, and non - bank institutions were strong buyers. After the announcement, trading activity and non - bank buying power decreased. This week, the yield of certificates of deposit fluctuated downward, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield was 1.6300% [86][89]. 3.3. 3. Central Bank: Pay Attention to the Roll - Over of 6 - Month Repurchase Agreements - **This Week**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from reverse repurchases, and advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 3 - month repurchase agreement. The balance of reverse repurchases was 49.58 billion yuan as of November 7, still higher than the seasonal level [36]. - **Next Week**: 49.58 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 100 billion yuan of repurchase agreement funds and 90 billion yuan of MLF due in November [38]. 3.4. 4. Government Bonds: Next Week's Net Payment will Rise to 36.92 Billion Yuan - **This Week**: The net financing of government bonds was 13.84 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.15576 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 83.4%, and a net payment of 3.68 billion yuan [42]. - **Next Week**: The net financing will be 24.98 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.17987 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 85.1%, and a net payment of 36.92 billion yuan. The net financing progress of treasury bonds is 86.1% (higher than the historical average), and the issuance progress of new local government general bonds, new local government special bonds, and special refinancing bonds is 86.4%, 88.3%, and 94.4% respectively (lower than the historical average) [42][43]. 3.5. 5. Bills: The Bill - Boosting Effect Weakens, and Bill Interest Rates Generally Increase - After the month - end, the bill - boosting effect weakened, and bill interest rates generally increased. As of November 7, the 3 - month and 6 - month straight - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks all increased compared with October 31 [52]. 3.6. 6. Exchange Rate: The RMB Depreciates - This week, the RMB depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar. The swap points of USDCNH/USDCNY were around 1400 points/1300 points. The central bank's regulation of the exchange rate was weak, with the mid - price of the US dollar against the RMB slightly depreciating, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 358 pips [54][58]. 3.7. 7. Market Fund Supply and Demand: The Net Lending of State - Owned Banks Continues to Recover - The net lending of state - owned banks increased, the net lending of money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries decreased, and most non - bank institutions increased leverage. Except for insurance, the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. Overnight funding prices slightly increased, and the 7 - day funding price decreased. Except for the last trading day, the funding feeling was loose [60][73]. 3.8. 8. Certificates of Deposit: The Net Financing of State - Owned Banks Turns Positive, and the Weighted Issuance Duration Increases - **Primary Market**: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 15.099 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 18.6%. State - owned banks' net financing turned positive, while joint - stock banks' net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of certificates of deposit increased, and the proportion of long - term certificate of deposit issuance by banks increased [78][80][82]. - **Secondary Market**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of banks on certificates of deposit decreased. Before the bond - buying announcement, trading activity was high, and non - bank institutions were strong buyers. After the announcement, trading activity and non - bank buying power decreased. This week, the yield of certificates of deposit fluctuated downward, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield was 1.6300% [86][89].

Group 1: Global Asset Prices - Global major stock markets experienced more declines than gains, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices falling by 1.6%, 1.2%, and 3% respectively[4] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.9% and 2.5% respectively, while London gold price fell by 0.1%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained stable compared to the previous week[4] Group 2: U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. Supreme Court raised concerns about the legality of tariffs, which could lead to a potential return of $100 billion in tariff revenue if deemed unconstitutional[5] - The liquidity crisis in the U.S. intensified, with SOFR soaring to 4.22% at the end of October, indicating a significant tightening of financial conditions[5] - The ADP reported an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, suggesting initial stabilization in the labor market, despite ongoing layoffs in the tech sector[5] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve showed increasing division regarding interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a cautious approach due to missing inflation data[5] - The European Central Bank announced that the Bulgarian central bank governor will gain voting rights in the governing council starting January 1, 2026[5] Group 4: Other Economic Indicators - Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.1% in September, primarily due to weak demand for fuel and non-food items[5] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI remained at 50%, indicating a slight stabilization in the sector, although new export orders and employment levels continued to decline[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The main concerns of the week include the continuous and significant decline in asphalt prices due to reduced downstream consumption in the off - season and low international crude oil prices; the weak supply - demand pattern of steel and cement; the sharp weakening of real estate sales; and the high - level decline of SCFI with the need to follow up on the details of Sino - US trade friction mitigation [5]. - Real estate sales remained weak this week, with the new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind showing a month - on - month decrease of 28.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.60%. New home sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline widening [5]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined. Steel, asphalt prices decreased, cement prices were basically flat, and glass futures prices rose slightly [5]. - In industrial production, the performance of operating rates was divided. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and coking enterprises decreased, while those of steel mills' blast furnaces increased, and the operating rates of automobile tires, polyester filament, and PTA were basically stable or slightly decreased [5]. - In consumption, the momentum of travel was strong. Subway travel and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, while automobile consumption and movie box office were below the seasonal level [5]. - In terms of inflation, pork and vegetable prices increased, while oil prices decreased [5]. - In exports, SCFI decreased and BDI increased [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Year - on - Year Decline Widened Significantly - From October 31 to November 6, new home sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline widening. The new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind decreased by 28.04% month - on - month and 42.60% year - on - year. New home sales in first - tier cities were significantly weaker than the previous period, while those in second, third, and fourth - tier cities were stronger. All cities' new home sales areas were significantly weaker than the same period last year [10]. - In October, new home sales decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened. The year - on - year sales in first and second - tier cities turned negative, and the new home sales areas in third and fourth - tier cities continued to decline [10]. - Among key cities, in terms of month - on - month, most key cities' new home sales increased, except for Shanghai (-4.13%). In terms of year - on - year, except for Hangzhou (-54.70%) which turned negative from positive, other key cities maintained negative growth, and all key cities' new home sales areas were weaker than the same period last year, with Shenzhen (-70.48%) showing a significant decline [10]. - In October, among key cities, except for Shenzhen (1.00%) and Suzhou (19.29%), new home sales were significantly weaker than the previous period month - on - month. In terms of year - on - year, except for Hangzhou (-2.25%), other key cities' new home sales areas were significantly weaker than the same period last year [10]. - Second - hand home sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Among key cities, in terms of month - on - month, except for Shenzhen (-1.22%), other key cities' second - hand home sales areas were significantly weaker than the previous period. In terms of year - on - year, except for Shanghai (-8.49%) where the decline narrowed, other key cities' second - hand home sales areas decreased compared to the same period last year [11]. - In October, second - hand home sales weakened. In terms of month - on - month, except for Hangzhou (-4.52%) where the decline slightly narrowed, other key cities turned negative from positive, and second - hand home sales were significantly weaker than the previous period. In terms of year - on - year, all key cities turned negative, and second - hand home sales areas were significantly weaker than the same period last year [11] 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - In investment, most commodity prices declined this week. Steel and asphalt prices decreased, cement prices were basically flat, and glass futures prices rose slightly [40] 3. Production: Operating Rates Showed Differentiated Performance - In production, the performance of operating rates was divided this week. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and coking enterprises decreased, while those of steel mills' blast furnaces increased, and the operating rates of automobile tires, polyester filament, and PTA were basically stable or slightly decreased [49] 4. Consumption: Strong Travel Momentum - In consumption, subway travel and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, while automobile sales and movie box office were below the seasonal level [64] 5. Exports: SCFI Decreased, BDI Increased - In exports, the SCFI index decreased, the BDI index increased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly this week [69] 6. Prices: Pork and Vegetable Prices Increased, Oil Prices Decreased - In terms of prices, pork and vegetable prices increased, while oil and steel prices decreased [72]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of an AI-driven low-frequency index enhancement strategy using deep learning frameworks to build alpha and risk models [3] - The performance of major market indices shows positive trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.19% as of November 7, 2025 [5][8] - Year-to-date performance indicates that the CSI 300 Index has increased by 18.9%, while the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has outperformed with a rise of 28.4%, yielding an excess return of 9.5% [19] Market Index Performance - As of November 7, 2025, the CSI 500 Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 28.0%, with its enhanced portfolio rising by 35.3%, resulting in an excess return of 7.3% [24] - The CSI 1000 Index has increased by 26.6% year-to-date, while its enhanced portfolio has risen by 40.9%, achieving an excess return of 14.4% [30] - The report highlights that sectors such as electric equipment, coal, and oil & petrochemicals performed well, with weekly returns of 4.98%, 4.52%, and 4.47% respectively [9][10] Index Enhancement Fund Performance - The CSI 300 enhanced fund reported a minimum excess return of -1.49%, a median of -0.22%, and a maximum of 0.84% for the week ending November 7, 2025 [11] - The CSI 500 enhanced fund had a minimum excess return of -1.05%, a median of 0.04%, and a maximum of 1.43% for the same period [11] - The CSI 1000 enhanced fund showed a minimum excess return of -1.69%, a median of -0.32%, and a maximum of 0.92% [11] Tracking Portfolio Performance - The report details that the AI-driven strategy involves weekly rebalancing with a maximum turnover rate of 10%, optimizing the combination of deep learning alpha signals and risk signals [15] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 28.4%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's 18.9% increase [19] - Historical performance data indicates that the CSI 500 enhanced portfolio has consistently outperformed its benchmark, with a year-to-date return of 35.3% compared to the CSI 500's 28.0% [25]