浦银国际研究 交易观点 | 投资策略 浦银国际港股市场情绪指数：乐观 情绪冲高回落，弱势短期或将持续 截至 2 月 3 日，浦银国际港股市场情绪指数的读数为 72.9，从 1 月 29 日高位 87.8（正 1.4 倍标准差）快速回落，位于其过去一年移动平均值 正 0.4 倍标准差附近，仍位于乐观区间。然而，需留意过往情绪市值触 及极端强势（正 1.5 倍标准差）后，有较高的概率在短期转弱。1 月 30 日以来，多个交易型指标动能转弱，风险溢价、卖空比率、波幅指数、 认沽/认购比率均上升，看跌情绪升温，RSI 指数也出现卖出信号。春节 前通常交投清淡，南向资金和外资的净流入节奏或放慢，在市场情绪短 期转弱趋势不变的情况下，可适当加大杠铃策略中红利价值股的权重。 投资风险：统计分析数据基于第三方数据库，可能存在偏差。模型结 论基于历史数据，对未来预测能力有限，存在失效的可能。市场情绪 可能受不可预估的事件影响。 赖烨烨 首席策略分析师 Melody_lai@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6441 扫码关注浦银国际研究 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268.HK) with a target price of HKD 75, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of HKD 60.6 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company's preliminary earnings forecast for 2025 aligns with expectations, projecting over 45% year-on-year revenue growth, over 70% gross profit growth, and over 38% net profit growth attributable to shareholders [8][11]. - WuXi AppTec has signed 70 new iCMC projects in 2025, benefiting from strong growth in the US and China, with over half of these projects coming from new ADC contributions [8][11]. - The company has provided a long-term revenue guidance of a 30-35% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, which is above the industry average of 25.6% CAGR [8][11]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 58.7 billion, RMB 79.4 billion, and RMB 105.9 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB 16.0 billion, RMB 21.2 billion, and RMB 29.1 billion [11][12]. - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be approximately 35.8%, which is better than previous expectations [8][11]. - The company anticipates significant commercial revenue starting in 2027, with limited contributions expected in 2026 as it focuses on building commercial production records [8][11]. Capacity Expansion - WuXi AppTec is accelerating capacity expansion through both self-built facilities and acquisitions, with capital expenditures expected to rise to RMB 1.7 billion in 2026 from RMB 1.22 billion in 2025 [2][10]. - The company has established dual production bases in China and Singapore, with plans for further expansion, including new production lines in Wuxi and Singapore [2][10]. - The acquisition of Hefei and Dongyao Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and client network, contributing to a market share of over 24% in the global ADC outsourcing market [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268.HK) with a target price of HKD 75, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of HKD 60.6 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company's preliminary earnings forecast for 2025 shows revenue growth exceeding 45% year-on-year, with gross profit growth over 70% and net profit growth exceeding 38% [8][11]. - WuXi AppTec has signed 70 new iCMC projects in 2025, benefiting from strong growth in the US and China, with over half of these projects coming from new ADC contributions [8][11]. - The company has provided a long-term revenue guidance of a 30-35% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, which is above the industry average of 25.6% CAGR [8][11]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 58.7 billion, RMB 79.4 billion, and RMB 105.9 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB 16.0 billion, RMB 21.2 billion, and RMB 29.1 billion [11][12]. - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be around 35.8%, which is better than previous expectations [8][11]. - The company anticipates significant commercial revenue starting in 2027, with limited contributions expected in 2026 as it focuses on accumulating production records [8][11]. Capacity Expansion - WuXi AppTec is accelerating capacity expansion through both self-built facilities and acquisitions, with capital expenditures expected to rise to RMB 1.7 billion in 2026 from RMB 1.22 billion in 2025 [2][10]. - The company has established dual production bases in China and Singapore, with plans for further expansion, including new DP production lines in Wuxi and a new facility in Singapore expected to achieve GMP release in 2026 [2][10]. - The company has a global market share of over 24% in the ADC outsourcing service market, indicating a strong competitive position [10].

Labor Market Overview - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a rare phenomenon of simultaneous weakening in both supply and demand, leading to a cooling effect[12] - In 2025, non-farm payrolls increased by only 584,000, significantly lower than 2,012,000 in 2024 and 2,594,000 in 2023, marking the lowest level since 2010 excluding the pandemic[6] - The unemployment rate rose moderately from an average of 4.03% in 2024 to 4.24% in 2025, indicating a gradual increase rather than a sharp spike[6] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in December 2025, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Job openings to unemployed persons ratio fell from 1.09 at the end of 2024 to 0.92 in November 2025, reflecting a tighter labor market[9] - The PMI employment index for manufacturing dropped below 50, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery, reaching 52 in December 2025[16] Future Projections - The downward trend in the labor market is expected to continue into 2026, but the likelihood of a rapid deterioration leading to recession is low[29] - The average unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2026, up from 4.2% in 2025, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges[29] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026 to mitigate labor market deterioration[29] Risks and Challenges - Risks include slow rate cuts potentially triggering a recession, prolonged inflation due to tariffs, and the effectiveness of policy stimulus falling short of expectations[29] - The labor force participation rate slightly declined from an average of 62.6% in 2024 to 62.4% in 2025, indicating reduced labor supply[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 97.3, representing a potential upside of 17.8% from the current price of HKD 82.6 [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the performance of the two main brands, Anta and Fila, in Q4 2025 showed contrasting results, with Anta experiencing a slight decline in retail sales while Fila saw growth due to strategic adjustments by the new management [1][2]. - The long-term growth of the company is expected to rely on its multi-brand globalization strategy, despite short-term pressures on profit margins in 2026 [3][2]. - The report emphasizes that while the market sentiment may remain weak in the short term, the company's ongoing efforts in brand diversification and global expansion are likely to drive sales and profit growth in the long run [3][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Anta's revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 62,356 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.2%. The revenue is expected to reach RMB 79,961 million in 2025, growing at 12.9% [10]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 10,236 million, with a significant increase of 34.9% compared to the previous year. However, a decline of 15.9% is anticipated for 2026, with a recovery expected in 2027 [10][12]. - The operating profit margin is projected to decrease from 24.6% in 2023 to 22.8% in 2025, reflecting the anticipated pressures on profitability [12]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail sales in Q4 2025 recorded a slight decline of less than 1% year-on-year, while Fila's sales grew in the mid-single digits, attributed to effective management strategies [1][2]. - Other brands under the company are expected to maintain high double-digit growth in 2026, although at a slower pace compared to 2025 [2][3]. Market Strategy - The company plans to enhance its market investment in 2026, coinciding with major events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games, which is expected to support brand visibility and sales [2]. - The report suggests that the market should focus on the strategic significance of new brand acquisitions for long-term growth rather than short-term performance impacts [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - Short-term negative sentiment may persist, but there is optimism about the long-term development trend of the brand globalization [3] - The performance of the two main brands, Anta and Fila, shows contrasting results in Q4 2025, with Anta experiencing a slight decline in retail revenue while Fila saw growth [1][2] - The company is expected to face pressure on profit margins in 2026, influenced by various factors including increased market investment and potential losses from acquisitions [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Anta's retail revenue in Q4 2025 recorded a year-on-year decline of less than 1%, primarily due to weak industry demand and warmer weather [1] - Fila's revenue in Q4 2025 grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, accelerating compared to the previous quarter [1] - Other brands experienced a revenue growth of 35-40% in Q4 2025, with Descente growing by 25-30% and Kolon by 50-55% [1] Future Projections - The management aims for Anta's revenue to achieve positive growth in 2026, supported by adjustments in online operations and store renovations [2] - Fila's operational adjustments are expected to maintain its revenue growth momentum in 2026, while other brands are projected to sustain high double-digit growth, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025 [2] - The company plans to increase marketing investments in 2026, coinciding with major events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games [2] Financial Estimates - The report maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 but has slightly lowered the net profit expectations for 2026 due to anticipated weaker profit margins [3] - The projected revenue for 2026 is RMB 88.553 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 14.361 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [10][16] - The company's profit margin is expected to face significant pressure in 2026 due to various factors, including potential losses from acquisitions [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the intelligent driving Tier 1 industry [3][7][10]. Core Insights - The intelligent driving sector is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the expansion of domain controllers as the core decision-making component of intelligent driving systems. The market for intelligent driving domain controllers is expected to reach RMB 428.4 billion by 2029, with China accounting for nearly 40% of this market [3][7][10]. - Domestic automakers are pushing for "intelligent driving equality," which is leading to a significant increase in the penetration rate of intelligent driving domain controllers. The penetration rate reached 27.6% from January to October 2025 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic Tier 1 suppliers to expand into international markets due to their technological advantages and cost efficiencies [3][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by the evolution of supply chains and the integration of intelligent driving technologies. The shift from traditional supply chain structures to more integrated and collaborative models is evident [11][15][16]. Current Industry Status - The penetration rate of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in new energy vehicles has significantly increased, with L2 and above ADAS installation rates reaching 87% in the first ten months of 2025, up 19.5 percentage points year-on-year [44][50]. - The report notes that the market for high-level intelligent driving features is expanding, with a notable increase in the availability of models equipped with Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) capabilities [44][48]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the intelligent driving sector, with domestic brands expected to capture over half of the market share for intelligent driving domain controllers by the end of 2025 [10][33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and the integration of AI in driving automation, which is expected to create new growth opportunities in the robotics sector [10][34]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for intelligent driving Tier 1 suppliers is evolving, with domestic players gaining market share and establishing themselves as key players in the industry [3][10]. - The report covers three specific companies: Youjia Innovation (2431.HK), Desay SV (002920.CH), and Zhixing Technology (1274.HK), all of which are given a "Buy" rating [3][10][8].

Economic Growth - China's Q4 2025 real GDP growth slowed to 4.5%, in line with market expectations, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[2] - Nominal GDP growth slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in Q4, after two consecutive quarters of decline[2] - Quarterly economic growth rose by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly better than the market expectation of 1.1%[2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - December retail sales growth continued to decline for seven consecutive months, dropping from 1.3% in November to 0.9% in December, below the market expectation of 1.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth fell by 1.2 percentage points to -3.8% in December, worse than the market expectation of -3.1%[4] - Cumulative per capita disposable income growth for urban residents decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, a smaller decline than the real economic growth rate[2] Industrial Production and Exports - Industrial production value year-on-year growth rebounded by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2% in December, exceeding market expectations of 5.0%[5] - December export growth increased from 5.9% in November to 6.6%, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 3.1%[7] - Net exports contributed 1.4% to economic growth in Q4, up from 1.2% in Q3, while investment and consumption contributions declined[2] Employment and Inflation - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December, better than the market expectation of 5.2%[5] - December CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven mainly by increases in food and gold prices[6] Policy Outlook - The focus of policy may need to continue on improving domestic demand, with expectations for additional stimulus measures post the National People's Congress[6] - The central bank is unlikely to implement rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions before the Spring Festival, with such actions potentially delayed until after the National People's Congress[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Stock Market - US Stocks - Overweight [32] - European Stocks - Equal-weight [33] - Chinese A-shares - Equal-weight [35] - Hong Kong Stocks - Overweight [36] - Japanese Market - Overweight [40] - Indian Market - Equal-weight [41] Bond Market - US Bond Market - Overweight [57] - Chinese Bond Market - Overweight [59] - Japanese Bond Market - Underweight [60] - European Bond Market - Equal-weight [62] 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, global stock markets rose due to improved global liquidity under the Fed's interest rate cuts. Vietnamese stocks led in December, while US stocks were volatile at the end of the year, and the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index performed poorly in the last three months [30][31] - In December, the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds had different issuance situations for US dollar bonds and offshore RMB bonds. The secondary market of Chinese overseas bonds generally showed an upward trend [46][49][50] - In December, major global bond markets had mixed performances. The Fed's policy and market expectations affected the US bond market, while China's bond market rose due to policy support and economic data [53][59] - In December, the US dollar index declined, and the yen depreciated. The Fed's expected interest rate cuts in 2026 will weaken the US dollar, and the yen's interest rate attractiveness is insufficient [67] - In December, gold continued to rise but may have short - term corrections. Silver rose strongly but was highly volatile, and crude oil prices were weak and expected to remain under pressure [71] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market - **12 - month Performance**: In December, most major global stock indices had different performances. The Vietnamese VN30 Index led with a 5.55% monthly increase, while the Hang Seng Tech Index had a significant decline of 1.48%. In 2025, all major global stock indices recorded gains [30][31] - **US Stocks**: The three major US stock indices had a differentiated trend in December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined slightly. The reasons for maintaining an overweight rating include the Fed's positive economic outlook, clear support for market liquidity, and the continuous realization of AI business [32][34] - **European Stocks**: European major stock indices oscillated higher in December. The reasons for maintaining an equal - weight rating are the stronger - than - expected economic resilience in the eurozone and the lack of growth potential despite lower valuations [33][34] - **Chinese A - shares**: The A - share market had a mild upward trend in December. The reasons for maintaining an equal - weight rating are the shift of policies from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, slow fundamental repair, and a good liquidity structure [35] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hong Kong stock market was under pressure in December. The reasons for maintaining an overweight rating are the expected return of southbound funds and the still - low valuation [36][38] - **Japanese/Indian Markets**: The Japanese stock market maintained a high - level oscillation in December. The reasons for upgrading to an overweight rating are the slower - than - expected pace of monetary policy normalization and the government's large - scale fiscal stimulus. The Indian stock market was in a high - level oscillation in December, and the reasons for downgrading to an equal - weight rating are trade frictions and currency depreciation, although the economy still maintains high - speed growth [40][41] Bond Market - **12 - month Performance**: In December, major global bond markets had different performances. The Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index declined by 0.51%, while the Bloomberg China Treasury and Policy Bank Bond Index rose by 1.22% [53][59] - **US Bond Market**: The US bond market declined in December. The reasons for an overweight rating are the expected Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 and its role in hedging market risks [57][59] - **Chinese Bond Market**: The Chinese bond market rose in December. The reasons for an overweight rating are the expectation of fiscal stimulus and the attractiveness of real yields [59] - **Japanese Bond Market**: The Japanese bond market declined significantly in December. The reasons for an underweight rating are the expected further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and fiscal risks [60][62] - **European Bond Market**: The European bond market was under pressure in December. The reasons for an equal - weight rating are the reduced expectation of safe - haven demand for European bonds and increased fiscal policy uncertainty [62] Foreign Exchange Market - **12 - month Performance**: In December, the US dollar index showed a mild downward trend, and the yen still depreciated slightly. The long - term stability of the US dollar is a concern, and the yen's interest rate attractiveness is insufficient [67] Commodity Market - **12 - month Performance**: In December, gold continued to rise, silver had a strong but volatile upswing, and crude oil prices were weak. Gold may have short - term corrections, silver has a risk of retracement after excessive speculation, and crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure [71] Fund Selection - **December Performance**: The selected funds in December had different returns. For example, the monthly increase of the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund A HKD was 0.24%, and the monthly increase of the Huaxia Selected Greater China Technology Fund A HKD Acc was 3.63% [75]

Inflation Data - December core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. recorded at 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI inflation rate for December matched expectations at 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year overall CPI and core CPI remained unchanged from November at 2.7% and 2.6% respectively[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, lower than the revised 56,000 in November and market expectations of 70,000[1] - Unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% in December, marking the first decline since July[1] - Average hourly wage growth rebounded both year-on-year and month-on-month[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The mixed employment data may lead the Federal Reserve to prioritize the declining unemployment rate, potentially delaying interest rate cuts until at least March[4] - The expectation remains for two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, despite the possibility of a delay in the next cut[4] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve due to ongoing investigations into Chairman Powell may not impact short-term rate decisions[4] Price Trends - Core goods prices saw a month-on-month growth rate drop to 0%, the lowest since June 2025[2] - Housing prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with lodging prices surging by 2.91% during the holiday season[2] - Super core service prices recorded a lower growth rate of 0.14% month-on-month, influenced by seasonal factors[2]