14 Nov 2024 09:32:57 ET │ 10 pages China Materials 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #136 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency onground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 7th to 13th Nov. We shift our n ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Auto Manufacturers Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Auto Manufacturers** industry, specifically the performance of imported vehicle sales in October 2024 and the year-to-date figures for 2024. Key Points 1. **Imported Vehicle Sales Performance** - October 2024 retail sales of imported vehicles decreased by **20% YoY** and **7% MoM**, totaling **48.5k units** sold. - Year-to-date (10M24) imported car retail sales were down **14% YoY**, amounting to **531.0k units** sold. [1][2][7] 2. **Brand-Specific Sales Data** - **Mercedes-Benz**: Sold **10,724 units** in October 2024, down **5% YoY** and **10% MoM**. Year-to-date sales decreased by **18%** to **105,204 units**. - **BMW**: Sales fell **36% YoY** to **4,990 units** in October, with a **18%** decline in year-to-date sales. - **Porsche**: Experienced a **32% YoY** drop, selling **3,618 units** in October, and a **33%** decline year-to-date. - **Audi**: Sales decreased by **29% YoY** to **3,412 units** in October, with a **15%** decline year-to-date. - **Land Rover**: Notably down **89% YoY** in October, selling **3,531 units**. - **Toyota**: Sales decreased by **27% YoY** to **2,333 units** in October, but year-to-date sales increased by **8%**. - **Other Brands**: Significant declines were noted across various brands, with total import passenger vehicle sales down **20% YoY** in October. [2][7] 3. **Investment Ratings** - **ZSG (0881.HK)**: Target price raised to **HK$23.25** based on a **6x 2026E P/E** multiple, reflecting sector downcycle and earnings improvement trajectory. - **Yongda (3669.HK)**: Target price set at **HK$2.98**, with a projected **8% dividend yield** for 2024. - **Meidong Auto (1268.HK)**: Target price of **HK$2.40**, with a focus on cash flow and healthy inventory management. [9][12][13] 4. **Risks Identified** - **Macroeconomic Weakness**: A weak macro environment could reduce consumer purchasing power, especially in lower-tier cities. - **Revenue and Margin Risks**: Lower-than-expected revenues and gross profit margins in the passenger vehicle and after-sales businesses could impact performance. - **Intensified Competition**: Increased competition may pressure profitability. - **Sales and Earnings Risks**: Risks associated with actual sales and earnings performance, particularly if a post-pandemic rebound does not occur as anticipated. [10][11][14] 5. **Analyst Insights** - Analysts express caution regarding the overall market conditions and the potential for continued declines in sales across various brands. The focus remains on identifying companies with strong management and prudent expansion strategies to navigate the current downcycle. [4][10][11] Additional Important Information - The report includes detailed sales figures by brand and highlights the significant declines in the luxury vehicle segment. - Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and consumer sentiment as key factors influencing the auto industry in China. - The report also discusses the potential for dealer consolidation in the medium term, which could impact market dynamics. [1][2][9][10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic outlook for three trade-oriented economies: Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, highlighting their export performance and domestic demand dynamics in 2024 and expectations for 2025 [2][5][8]. Key Points Export Performance - Exports from Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam outperformed expectations in 2024, with Vietnam leading the performance for the first nine months [5][8]. - Robust exports have supported overall economic growth above potential despite tight monetary and credit policies [5][8]. - In 2025, growth is expected to slow significantly in Korea and Taiwan, while Vietnam's growth is projected to rise moderately [2][8]. - A broad moderation in exports is anticipated due to weak demand from mainland China and uncertainties surrounding US trade policy [2][8]. - The report notes a significant reduction in export exposure to China for these economies, attributed to localization of supply chains and US tariffs [2][8][9]. Domestic Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand is expected to diverge among the three economies: sustained strength in Vietnam, recovery in Korea, and moderation in Taiwan [20][23]. - In Korea, consumption is projected to recover slowly due to declines in borrowing costs and a moderate fiscal stance, while investment is unlikely to see significant growth due to uncertainties in US trade policy [20][23]. - Taiwan is expected to experience double-digit increases in equipment investment driven by strong AI-related demand, despite a slowdown in private consumption growth [20][23]. - Vietnam's labor market is normalizing post-pandemic, with job growth returning to pre-pandemic levels and wages rising around 8% [23][24]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam is expected to moderate in line with targets due to stabilizing commodity prices and weak global demand [28][31]. - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to gradually cut the policy rate to 2.25% by late 2025, reflecting slow growth and reduced risks of housing market overheating [35][39]. - Taiwan's monetary policy is expected to ease moderately, while Vietnam's credit policy may become less restrictive as financial stability improves [36][39]. Risks and Opportunities - Main risks include potential growth downturns from a broader trade war and deflationary pressures from China's excess capacity [41][43]. - Upside risks could arise from trade reallocation away from China, benefiting Vietnam's labor-intensive goods and Taiwan and Korea's capital-intensive goods [41][43]. Economic Projections - GDP growth forecasts for 2025: Korea at 1.8%, Taiwan at 2.6%, and Vietnam at 6.4% [44]. - Headline CPI inflation projections for 2025: Korea at 1.6%, Taiwan at 1.3%, and Vietnam at 3.3% [44]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering external factors, such as US trade policy and China's economic performance, in assessing the outlook for these economies [2][41]. - The analysis highlights the shifting trade dynamics and the increasing importance of the US as a market for these economies, particularly in value-added terms [13][17].

15 Nov 2024 14:36:08 ET │ 10 pages Global Commodities CBAM risks further straining the US-EU relationship as it targets €4 billion worth of US imports with an implied 10% tariff The first attempt to accurately compile the CBAM registry failed, underscoring the mechanism's limitations we previously detailed in Global Commodities - CBAM primer and how EU producers and importers could save up to €600 million on higher CBAM related costs from 2026. Moreover, during the second Trump presidency, CBAM risks furthe ...

Summary of Insource (6200.T) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Insource (6200.T) - **Industry**: Mid Small Cap/Non-Manufacturer, Japan - **Current Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: ¥1,500 - **Current Share Price (as of Nov 14, 2024)**: ¥1,031 - **Market Capitalization**: ¥86.5 billion - **Dividend Yield (09/25e)**: 2.3% Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY Ending 09/24: ¥12.5 billion - FY Ending 09/25e: ¥14.6 billion - FY Ending 09/26e: ¥17.0 billion - FY Ending 09/27e: ¥19.8 billion - **Operating Profit**: - FY Ending 09/24: ¥4.9 billion - FY Ending 09/25e: ¥6.0 billion - FY Ending 09/26e: ¥7.5 billion - FY Ending 09/27e: ¥9.3 billion - **Net Income**: - FY Ending 09/24: ¥3.4 billion - FY Ending 09/25e: ¥4.1 billion - FY Ending 09/26e: ¥5.1 billion - FY Ending 09/27e: ¥6.3 billion - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY Ending 09/24: ¥40.0 - FY Ending 09/25e: ¥48.5 - FY Ending 09/26e: ¥60.4 - FY Ending 09/27e: ¥74.9 Strategic Initiatives - **Operational Structure**: Insource is adopting a five-division operational structure to enhance marketing capabilities tailored to client characteristics, which is expected to improve long-term profit growth prospects [1][2][3] - **Client Engagement**: The introduction of a middle management layer aims to boost engagement with potential clients, leading to an increase in the number of client companies [2] - **Market Focus**: The company plans to expand its client base by targeting mid-market and growth clients, even if it results in lower unit prices [2] Revenue Growth and Performance - **Revenue Growth Rates**: - F9/23: +14.5% YoY - F9/24: +15.7% YoY - Expected F9/25: +16.7% YoY - **Monthly KPIs**: Strong performance in October with +19.4% YoY growth in on-site training and +25.4% growth in open seminars [3] - **Total Revenue Estimates**: - F9/25e: ¥14.56 billion - F9/26e: ¥16.96 billion - F9/27e: ¥19.82 billion [4] Financial Ratios - **Operating Margin**: Expected to improve from 39.6% in F9/24 to 41.2% in F9/25e - **Net Margin**: Expected to rise from 26.9% in F9/24 to 28.0% in F9/25e - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Expected to be 42.3% in F9/25e [1] Additional Insights - **Market Conditions**: Business conditions are supported by robust demand, particularly in reskilling among Japanese companies [2] - **Training Industry Strengths**: Insource is leveraging its strengths in the training industry by separating training content from trainer contracting and allocating costs according to usage [2] - **Marketing Structure**: The new five-division system will allow for more focused marketing efforts, with divisions targeting large enterprises, mid-market clients, growth companies, the public sector, and digital products [1][2] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Insource's strategic direction, financial performance, and market positioning.

Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH Foundation November 15, 2024 05:11 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific S. Korea Telecom Services: "Value-up" + AI optionality Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+ Seyon Park Equity Analyst Seyon.Park@morganstanley.com +82 2 399-4936 Dan Kim Research Associate Dan.C.Kim@morganstanley.com +82 2 399-4872 Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2025 Extel (ex-Institutional Investor) Asia Research Team Survey. Request your ballot here. S. Korea Telecoms, ...

15 Nov 2024 02:28:37 ET │ 10 pages Han's Laser Technology (002008.SZ) Expiring Upside 90-Day Catalyst Watch View original report on this Catalyst Watch This Upside Catalyst Watch call, added on 16-Aug-2024, has expired effective immediately and should no longer be relied upon. | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|----------------------| | | | | Buy | | | Price (14 Nov 2024 15:00:00) | Rmb26.680 | | Target price | Rmb24.000 | | Expected share price return | -10.0% | | Expected dividend yield | 1.5% ...

November 15, 2024 09:50 AM GMT M Update | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

15 Nov 2024 05:19:14 ET │ 9 pages China Auto Manufacturers Weekly Battery — LFP cell costs remains up; Nov-24E installation at +1.7% MoM Nov-24E installation at +1.7% MoM — We estimate Nov full month China NEV-PV battery installation at 52.9GWh (+1.7% MoM/+31.2% YoY), factoring Nov-24E China NEV PV retail sales at1.21mn units (+1% MoM). BYD MTD installation underperformed — In MTD-Nov, BYD lost -4.2ppt market share MoM, with slower MTD installation growth of +5% MoM (vs. sector's +22%); while CATL gained 1. ...

14 Nov 2024 03:35:11 ET │ 11 pages V i e w p o i n t | Global Semiconductors Memory Pricing Update: 4Q DRAM ASP Likely to be Better-ThanFeared; Memory ASP Recovery in 2H25E CITI'S TAKE Recently, the market appeared to be concerned about a potential decline in 4Q DRAM pricing due to concerns on HBM oversupply and weakening demand for conventional memory. Contrary to market concerns, we expect 4Q DRAM pricing to be better-than-feared driven by increasing mix of HBM and premium memory with high bandwidth and h ...