人形机器人量产在即，如何布局 20241114 摘要 • 人形机器人市场需求旺盛，主要体现在工业制造、服务领域和创造新的高 质量工作机会三个方面。 • 政策支持是推动人形机器人快速发展的重要因素，包括工信部等部门发布 的《"十四五"智能制造发展规划》、《未来产业规划》和《人形机器人 创新发展指导意见》等。 • 人形机器人产业架构主要包含上游零部件、中游人形机器人本体以及下游 终端应用等环节，其中上游零部件包括减速器、电机、执行器、控制器和 伺服驱动等。 • 减速器是连接动力源与执行机构之间的重要装置，根据精度分为一般传动 减速器和精密减速器，其中精密减速器因回程间隙小、精度高且使用寿命 长，可用于高端领域。 • 全球机器人减速器市场份额排名前三的是日本的哈默纳科、日本的纳博特 斯克以及日本的住友，日本厂商在该行业中处于寡头垄断地位，但国产替 代正在加速推进。 • 传感器是智能机器人的"感官"，负责采集和处理环境与自身的信息，为 决策与控制提供数据支持。目前核心传感器包括力传感器、触觉传感器和 IMU。 Q&A 人形机器人的简介及其应用场景有哪些？ 人形机器人是指仿人机器人，具有类似人类的外观，模仿人类功能和智 ...

白银短期下跌是机会吗？20241114 摘要 • 近期白银市场波动主要受美国大选不确定性、美联储降息、美元和美债收 益率走强等因素影响。大选结果落地后，市场风险偏好提升，贵金属价格 有所回调。 • 美联储降息通常利好贵金属价格，但此次降息与预期一致，未对市场预期 产生改变。未来降息幅度和节奏仍需密切关注，将继续影响金融市场走势。 • 投资者应关注宏观经济环境及重大政治事件，合理评估自身风险承受能力， 并根据风险等级选择适合的投资产品。在行情剧烈波动时，可以考虑分批 建仓或逐步调整仓位，以降低风险。 • 中长期来看，随着全球经济复苏进程推进以及各国央行持续实施宽松货币 政策，预计对白银等贵金属将形成一定支撑。未来通胀预期上升也将进一 步提升对白银作为保值工具的需求。 • 白银与黄金相比，有一定的工业属性，对价格波动有额外影响。申万一级 行业分类中的有色金属指数也会影响白银价格。 • 全球白银行业一直处于供小于求的紧平衡状态。今年及未来，由于 AI 和 半导体行业需求持续增加，对白银价格形成了支撑作用。 Q&A 近期白银市场波动的主要原因是什么？ 近期白银市场的波动主要受到几个因素的影响。首先，美国大选的不确定性 ...

特高压专题：高景气延续，公司远期业绩拆解 20241114 摘要 | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | • | 撑。2025 年预计开工 5 条直流特高压线路和 6 条交流特高压线路，1,000 '十四五'期间总投资金额超过 6,000 亿元。 特高压产业在短期和中期均保持景气，预计 2024 年四季度将有直流特高 压线路获核准，并进行交 ...

也还是在周日的这个九点的老时间今天我们邀请到弘泽的合伙人张金也是弘泽的全一的研究总监和科技团队的负责人今天和我们一起去讨论同样还是半导体周期和持续的这个 科技行业的产业变化那另外我们今天邀请到红色的电子行业的首席欧阳之鹏也和我们一起去讨论特别是产业周期的变化那么欧阳也是在我们团队在今年比较早的时候一方面去判断整个这个消费电子的反转同时我们也把小米的推荐放在了非常首要的这个位置上 那在这个时间点上我们去看到实际上随着整体市场的反弹相比于今年年初应该这个也出现了非常明显的这个 相对应的幅度的这个收益那在这个过程里面到底从公司的变化从产业的变化那么现在处在什么样的这个位置上未来怎么演绎也是我们今天一起去聊的具体的内容那我们现在可能每周都会去做大量的产业的调研最近也特别针对包括小米的新的产品那么在这里面我们也等一下这个和欧阳一起去讨论一下 那今天可能开场还是我和大家去探讨一下我觉得市场的这个变化那在上周我觉得是大家去看到比较关键的一周一方面美国大选最终尘埃落定另外一方面国内的人大常委会也带来了这个市场的预期之间的这个不断的反复博弈 同样实际上联储开始了今年的第二次降息25个BP所以在这个过程里面大的宏观环境对应了什么 ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 Buy Catalyst Watch: Upside, expires 01-DEC-24 Price (08 Nov 24 16:10) HK$14.74 Target price HK$19.40 Expected share price return 31.6% Expected dividend yield 2.6% Expected total return 34.2% Market Cap HK$148,425M US$19,091M 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Flash | 10 Nov 2024 22:20:37 ET │ 12 pages Geely Automobile (0175.HK) Soft-la ...

Summary of the China Passenger Vehicle Monthly Chartbook Industry Overview - **Industry**: Passenger Vehicle and New Energy Vehicle (NEV) in China - **Date**: October 2024 - **Key Trends**: Strong demand growth, particularly in NEVs, with significant market share gains for leading companies like BYD and ZEEKR Core Insights 1. **Demand Growth**: The trade-in stimulus is effectively driving positive demand, pricing, and inventory trends, with a recommendation to buy BYD due to its market share gain of 2.7 percentage points year-over-year (yoy) and 1.6 percentage points month-over-month (mom) to 36% [2][30] 2. **Sales Volume**: - Passenger vehicle retail volume reached 2,261,000 units (+11% yoy, +7% mom) - Wholesale volume was 2,732,000 units (+12% yoy, +9% mom) [13][20] - NEV retail volume was 1,196,000 units (+55% yoy, +6% mom) and wholesale volume was 1,369,000 units (+54% yoy, +11% mom) [12][20] 3. **Market Penetration**: NEV retail penetration reached 52.9% (+14.91 percentage points yoy) and wholesale penetration was 50.1% (+13.71 percentage points yoy) [14] Company Highlights 1. **BYD (002594.SZ / 1211.HK)**: - Achieved a yoy volume growth of 67% and a mom growth of 12% - Monthly volume reached an all-time high with stable blended transaction prices - Anticipated further increases in monthly deliveries and average selling prices (ASP) due to production capacity adjustments and new premium models [7][30] 2. **ZEEKR (ZK)**: - Reported the highest yoy volume growth at 92% and mom growth at 17% - Expected to see further volume increases as new models ramp up [8][31] 3. **XPeng (XPEV / 9868.HK)**: - Showed a yoy volume growth of 2% and mom growth of 9% - Anticipated increase in volume driven by the new P7+ model, which received over 30,000 confirmed orders shortly after launch [9][32] Pricing and Inventory Trends 1. **Inventory Trends**: - Total passenger vehicle inventory was 3.02 million units in September 2024, down 16% yoy and 4% mom - NEV inventory was 450,000 units, up 32% yoy [23][63] 2. **Pricing Trends**: - NEV average dealer price discounts narrowed to 7.28% in October 2024 from 7.87% in September 2024 - Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles saw an increase in average discounts to 21.36% [24] 3. **Battery Prices**: - Average lithium carbonate price was RMB 75,800 per ton, down 57% yoy but flat mom - Average LFP and NCM cell prices also showed slight declines [25] Additional Insights - **Trade-in Subsidy Program**: The Ministry of Commerce reported 1.68 million applications for the auto trade-in subsidy program, indicating strong consumer interest in upgrading vehicles [46] - **Future Outlook**: The management of leading companies expects rational pricing competition in Q4 2024, supported by increasing demand and trade-in subsidies [30] This summary encapsulates the key points from the October 2024 China Passenger Vehicle Monthly Chartbook, highlighting the robust growth in the NEV sector and the performance of major players in the market.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the semiconductor industry in China, specifically the performance of two major foundry companies: SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) and Hua Hong Semiconductor. Key Points Company Performance - **SMIC**: - Reported a record high revenue of **US$2.17 billion** for 3Q24, representing a **14% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ)** increase and a **34% year-over-year (YoY)** increase, aligning with market estimates [11][29]. - Achieved a gross margin (GM) of **20.5%**, exceeding guidance due to strong domestic consumer IC demand, which rose **43% QoQ** [11][29]. - Forecasts flat to slight QoQ revenue growth with stable GM for 4Q24, indicating steady demand in China [11]. - **Hua Hong**: - Reported 3Q24 revenue of **US$526 million**, down **7% YoY** but up **10% QoQ** [11][29]. - Experienced an operational loss of **US$17 million** due to pricing pressures, particularly in IGBT and super junction products, despite achieving full utilization of its production capacity [11][29]. - Management anticipates slight recovery in average selling price (ASP) in 4Q24 [14]. Capital Expenditure and Technology Development - SMIC's capital expenditure (capex) decreased by **40% QoQ** to **US$1.18 billion** in 3Q24, primarily due to technology restrictions on key equipment, but it continues to expand its 12-inch capacity [13]. - Hua Hong is progressing with its new 12-inch fab in Wuxi, with trial production expected to complete by 4Q24 and full ramp-up aimed by the end of 2025. The projected spending for its second 12-inch fab is around **US$2 billion to US$2.5 billion** annually for 2024 and 2025 [13]. ASP Trends - SMIC's ASP increased by approximately **13.6% QoQ** in 3Q24, driven by higher shipments in consumer electronics and a favorable product mix [14]. - In contrast, Hua Hong's ASP decreased by **4% QoQ**, facing pressure on power discrete products, although PMIC and analog products remained resilient [14]. Market Outlook and Analyst Ratings - The competitive landscape in China's foundry market is intensifying, particularly in the 12-inch trailing edge process, with SMIC being the only domestic player capable of producing 28nm chips [28]. - Analysts maintain a **Neutral** rating on SMIC and a **Sell** rating on Hua Hong, with target prices raised to **HK$30** for SMIC and **HK$18** for Hua Hong, reflecting their respective earnings projections and market conditions [15][28]. Earnings Estimates - For Hua Hong, earnings estimates for 2024 were raised by **12%** due to better-than-expected 3Q24 results, but estimates for 2025 and 2026 were cut by **11%** and **6%** respectively due to increasing depreciation pressure [28]. - For SMIC, earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 were cut by **33%** and **9%** respectively, while the 2026 estimates were raised by **11%** due to expected benefits from domestic demand growth amid US-China decoupling [28]. Additional Insights - The ongoing competition and rising depreciation costs are expected to limit gross margin and earnings upside for Hua Hong, despite achieving peak utilization rates [28]. - The overall demand in China remains steady, but the potential for ASP pressure exists as more mature node capacity ramps up in the market [28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the performance and outlook of the semiconductor industry in China, particularly focusing on SMIC and Hua Hong.

Summary of Goldman Sachs China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The document focuses on the **China Property** market, specifically analyzing trends in primary and secondary property sales, market sentiment, and inventory levels. Key Highlights 1. **Primary Sales Decline**: Primary sales fell by **25% month-over-month (mom)** and **59% year-over-year (yoy)**, reaching levels just above those seen in February 2024 [3][11][20]. 2. **Easing Impact Tracker**: The easing impact tracker indicates that over the past six weeks, primary and secondary volumes recorded declines of **29%** and increases of **1%** week-over-week (wow), respectively. Primary sales were **40%** below the average of prior easing peaks, while secondary sales were **15%** above [3][11][13]. 3. **New Home Sales**: New home sales volume averaged a **17%** decline wow but showed a **24%** increase yoy, with tier-3 cities and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) outperforming [3][11][20]. 4. **Secondary Transactions**: Secondary transactions increased by **3%** wow and **43%** yoy, reflecting stronger price appreciation expectations from agents and homeowners [3][11][23][24]. 5. **New Home Search Demand**: The new home search demand heat index softened by **2%** wow and was **1%** below pre-easing levels [3][11][14]. 6. **Inventory Levels**: Inventory levels increased by **0.2%** wow but were down **9%** from the end of 2023, with inventory months at **25.8** [3][11][31]. Market Sentiment 1. **Homebuyer Sentiment**: The Centaline Salesman Index (CSI) improved by **2.5 percentage points (pp)** wow and **11.7pp** yoy, indicating a more positive outlook among agents [3][11][28]. 2. **Homeseller Sentiment**: The Centaline Seller Asking Index (CAI) increased by **1.1pp** wow and **11.7pp** yoy, suggesting sellers are more optimistic about pricing [3][11][28]. Completions and New Starts 1. **Completions**: The GSPC tracker indicates a **20%** yoy decline in completions for October 2024, with a projected **13%** decline for the full year [7][35]. 2. **New Starts**: New starts are expected to decline by **20%** yoy in October, consistent with trends observed in September [7][35]. Valuation Insights 1. **Valuation Discounts**: Offshore developers are trading at an average **26%** discount to end-2025 estimated net asset value (NAV), while onshore developers are at a **5%** discount [39][40]. 2. **Price-to-Book Ratios**: The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for offshore coverage is **0.5X** 2025E P/B, compared to historical troughs [39][40]. Conclusion The China property market is experiencing significant challenges, with declines in primary sales and completions, although secondary market activity shows some resilience. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, reflected in improved indices for both buyers and sellers. Valuation metrics indicate a substantial discount for developers, suggesting potential investment opportunities amidst the downturn.

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和相关信息对外公布转发转载传播复制编辑修改等如有上述违法行为天风证券研究所保留追究相关方法律责任的权利大家好欢迎参加天风电信固态系列7氧化物聚合物固态电池专家目前所有的参会者均处于静音状态 在演讲结束后将给大家留有提问时间现在开始有请主持人开始发言谢谢各位投资者大家那个晚上好非常感谢大家来参加那个固态系列的交流然后这场的话我们是有心邀请了氧化物的行业专家给大家做一个沟通然后会议开始之前还是强调一下会议记录不希望有任何的机要或者录音流传出来专家这边现在能听到我们声音吗 可以大家好好的好的来专家第一个我们可能就是想问一下氧化物的这种固态电池和比如说硫化物的这个在那个正负极电解质各个环节材料里面大概的一个区别能不能先简单的给我们介绍一下区别嘛就是说还是从这个电解质开始说就是氧化物的话就是 呃他是比较他其实就是陶瓷材料嘛陶瓷材料的话那他的绝缘性能是比较好的嗯然后他比较稳定那他的问题嘛就是说他呢电导率比较低然后呢呢他的接触界面呢就是固体跟固体接触嘛接触界面呢就啊就是就不太好嘛所以就是说氧化物的呃 氧化物它要解决的问题就是说解决这个电导率还有这个接触界面的问题所以说现在市面上的所谓半固态电池实际上呢它是氧化物的一种特殊的 ...