稍等我把这个结束一下好那我现在就开始会议了好吗 本次会议紧面向招商证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户会议嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议未经招商证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 好的 各位领导 各位朋友中午时间跟大家更新汇报一下最近关注人比较多光复这一块呢上周市场在迅速的科普跟进不过从周一到周四我觉得总体上刚好没得露眼大部分人还是不太信 也不太关心可能后面是这个涨势促使大家去回去研究 我觉得大致的解论我们从最近几周沟通公开的发信息来讲我觉得总体上对政策应该适当乐观这是总体的观点从行业现状上来讲从去年四季度以来看得很细行业现状肯定是持续很久是不现实的我们大概 年报到Q1到Q2我们大致在看就是如果说是这个叫按照现在的这个价格和出货量的情况那实际上可能一半的官方公司应该在年报在这个叫明年一季报或者二季报之间可能会发不出工资了就是它的现金会面临枯竭所以这个现状肯定是不能持续的那么从8月份我们大致这个了解的和有些参与的这个一些行业的情况来看 8月份以后我们的政策主管部门已经在比较严肃的在关注这个行 ...

Industry Overview - The report discusses the transition of China's monetary policy framework from a quantity-based system (focused on money supply) to a price-based system (focused on interest rates) [1][2] - The shift began in 2018 when China stopped announcing M2 growth targets, marking the de facto abandonment of the quantity-based framework [1][3] - The new framework aims to establish an interest rate corridor mechanism and improve the transmission of monetary policy [1][13] Key Challenges in the Old Framework - The quantity-based framework faced issues with controllability and correlation between money supply and economic targets [4][5] - Financial innovation and changes in liquidity structures weakened the effectiveness of money supply as an intermediate target [5] - The divergence between M1 and M2 growth rates created challenges for policy implementation [4] New Framework and Policy Tools - The report suggests using the overnight repo rate as the intermediate target rate, given its liquidity and stability [15][20] - The interest rate corridor mechanism should be refined, with the lower bound (excess reserve rate) and upper bound (SLF rate) adjusted to reflect policy intentions [21][23] - The framework requires a combination of policy tools, including central bank lending, open market operations, and reserve requirement adjustments [24][26] Market Development and Policy Implementation - The bond repo market plays a crucial role in monetary policy transmission, with overnight repos accounting for 87.5% of total repo transactions in 2023 [20] - The report emphasizes the need to expand government bond issuance and diversify bond maturities to support open market operations [30][31] - Coordination between central bank lending and open market operations is essential for effective interest rate smoothing and yield curve management [27][29] Recommendations - Establish the overnight repo rate as the intermediate target rate [33] - Refine the interest rate corridor mechanism by adjusting the excess reserve rate and replacing the SLF rate with a more frequently used tool [33] - Normalize the reserve requirement ratio to improve interest rate transmission efficiency [33] - Enhance coordination between central bank lending and open market operations [33] - Expand government bond issuance and optimize bond maturity structures to support monetary policy operations [34]

18 36 大建运河 美国大选倒计时 一级市场期待转机 30 重塑险企账本 中国汽车出口见顶? 62 直播电商 "翻车" 之困 ୧୫ 74 程序员与 AI 亦友亦敌,从生产力工具替代出发, 互联网迎来新一轮自我革命 2024年 第42期 10月28日出版 总第1128期 郎发代号: 32-235 民币40元 港币60元 www.caixin.cc P.44 财新观察｜牢牢抓住⺠营经济促进法的要义 CAIXIN| 听⽂章 近⽇，司法部和国家发展改⾰委公布《⺠营经济促进法（草案征求意 ⻅稿）》，引发⼴泛关注。作为中国⾸部专⻔关于⺠营经济发展的基 础性法律，该法旨在优化⺠营经济发展环境，保证各类经济组织公 平参与市场竞争，促进⺠营经济健康发展和⺠营经济⼈⼠健康成 ⻓。⾃10⽉10⽇公布，截⾄10⽉14⽇，司法部就已收到1000多条意 ⻅和建议，这⼀热度反映了各界对这部重要法律的殷切期待。 9⽉26⽇召开的中共中央政治局会议，在要帮助企业渡过难关，进 ⼀步规范涉企执法、监管⾏为部分，⾸先提出的便是要出台⺠营经 济促进法，为⾮公有制经济发展营造良好环境。这反映了决策层对 这部法律的⾼度重视。草案共9章77条，内容⼗分丰 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the software and services industry in the U.S. stock market [2]. Core Insights - The U.S. software and services companies have shown significant growth in revenue, net profit, and operating cash flow in the first half of the year, with R&D expenditure growth lagging behind [2]. - Meta Platforms, Inc. has outperformed other companies in terms of financial performance [2]. Sample Overview - A total of 210 U.S. software and services companies were analyzed, all of which have been consistently reporting since 2021 [3]. - The majority of the companies are registered in the United States (166), followed by the Cayman Islands (16) and Israel (13) [4]. - 129 companies have fewer than 2,000 employees, while Meta has the highest employee count at over 340,000 [4]. Revenue Situation - The combined revenue of the 210 companies reached $260.85 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting an 11.36% year-over-year increase [7]. - Meta, IBM, and SAP led in revenue, with figures of $75.53 billion, $30.23 billion, and $17.55 billion respectively [9]. - 144 companies reported a year-over-year revenue increase, with Luminar, Tuya, and GigaMedia showing the highest growth rates of 780%, 189.65%, and 189.03% respectively [10]. Profit Situation - The total net profit for the 210 companies amounted to $37.13 billion, marking a 63.03% year-over-year increase [11]. - Meta's net profit was $25.83 billion, significantly higher than other companies [13]. - The average gross profit margin decreased to 42.34%, down 15.79 percentage points from the previous year [14]. R&D Expenditure - The total R&D expenditure for the sample companies was $45.09 billion, a 4.45% increase year-over-year, which is lower than the growth rates of revenue and net profit [14]. - Meta had the highest R&D expenditure at $20.51 billion, accounting for 45.5% of the total [15]. Cash Flow Situation - The net cash flow from operating activities for the sample companies was $75.29 billion, a 20.96% increase year-over-year [16]. - Meta contributed $38.62 billion to the total, representing 51.29% of the net cash flow [17]. - The net cash flow from investing activities was -$36.82 billion, with Meta accounting for -$17.03 billion of this total [18].

计算机、通信行业路演 20241027 摘要 • 计算机行业整体呈现积极向上的趋势，主要原因在于政策转向和产业边际 进展。尽管有反弹，但行业整体仍处于相对低位。基金公司三季报持仓显 示，计算机行业显著低配，市值上涨未能同步提升重仓配置比例，因此在 教育层面有一定安全支撑。 • 建议关注中长期产业趋势与市场行情共振的方向，包括大财政 IT、大科 技自律（信创和国产专利）以及数据要素等边际催化方向。 • 大财政 IT 方向上，10 月 12 日财政发力预期明确，在划贷和一周节调解 预期下，该方向具备较大优势并能真实落地。短期内预计相关会议将进一 步明确责任和量化细分方向，到明年或后年，中金行业许多细分方向将迎 来修复与提速预期。此外，由于财政紧张导致需求不足的问题得到解决， 应收账款高企带来的资产减值回升可能性也较大，从而带来利润弹性。 • 信创和国产专利领域前景广阔。今年 8 月政府补贴预期已缓解市场担忧， 地方政府发债及财政发力有望进一步消除资金不足问题，并推动 2025 年 至 2027 年的第四阶段全面推广。在党政与行业共振下，终端操作系统、 数据库及配套应用设备等环节替换产值有望再上台阶。短期内，如果美 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **animal cell new energy industry**, particularly the **photovoltaic (PV)** sector, which is experiencing significant market movements due to unprecedented supply-side reforms [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Side Reforms**: The reforms have exceeded expectations, leading to a **15% increase** in overall capacity utilization across the industry, with leading companies seeing a **20% growth** in market share [1][2]. - **Resource Optimization**: The reforms have optimized resource allocation, enhancing production efficiency and accelerating the development and launch of new products [1][3]. - **Technological Innovation**: Leading companies are actively engaging in R&D, launching efficient and environmentally friendly products to meet market demand [1][3]. - **Policy Support**: Government measures, including financial subsidies and tax incentives, are alleviating financial pressures on companies and guiding the industry towards sustainable development through strict environmental standards [1][4]. - **Future Outlook**: With ongoing policy support, more capital is expected to flow into the sector, driving technological innovation and industrial upgrades. Increased international market demand is anticipated to boost exports from China, a major production base [1][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Adjustment**: The new energy sector is currently at the bottom of an adjustment cycle, having undergone two to three years of corrections. The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve gradually in 2024, with the lithium battery market recovering sooner than the PV market [1][6]. - **PV Industry Changes**: Recent significant changes in the PV sector include the introduction of a minimum cost price by the China Photovoltaic Association, which aims to stabilize market prices and enhance the concentration of leading companies [1][7]. - **Price Trends**: The PV industry is currently facing historical low prices and profitability, with most companies operating at a loss. Future price recovery is contingent on supply-demand dynamics and the gradual elimination of excess capacity [1][20]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The call suggests focusing on companies with rigid capacity in the silicon material and glass sectors, as well as leading firms with channel and cost advantages [1][37]. Conclusion - The animal cell new energy industry, particularly the photovoltaic sector, is poised for a turnaround due to supply-side reforms and supportive policies. The focus on technological innovation and resource optimization will be crucial for companies to enhance their competitive edge in the evolving market landscape.

锂电材料格局分析：当天平开始回归 20241027 摘要 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 通过新产品和需求端超预期带来供需关系的改善。 锂电板块当前处于资金状态较为活跃的阶段，我们对该板块持乐观态度， 特别是从 8 月下旬开始，需求出现超 ...

碱电、锂电"小巨人"，三季报详解 20241027 摘要 • 长虹能源 2024 年前三季度营业收入同比增长 39%，达到 26.69 亿元，归 母净利润同比增长 171.2%，达到 1.43 亿元。其中，第三季度营业收入同 比增长 42.12%，达到 10.4 亿元，归母净利润同比增长 144.41%，达到 5,400 万元。 • 碱锰电池业务保持稳定增长，1-9 月份营收同比增长 3%，达到 12.53 亿元， 净利润为 1.3 亿元。公司在该领域拥有世界一流的产能和技术，在中国市 场排名第二，仅次于双鹿。 • 锂电池业务今年逐步恢复销售规模，盈利状况好转，1-9 月份营收同比增 长 65%，达到 11.95 亿元，净利润为 1,500 万元。公司已取得包括 TT 和 安克等新增客户，并通过内部降本增效及拓展新应用市场来提升竞争力。 • 小型聚合物锂离子电池业务新收购，目前体量较小，但订单充足且未来发 展空间较大，1-9 月份营收为 2.14 亿元，净利润为 750 万元。公司正在 进行扩能项目，并引进战略投资者，以快速做大这块业务。 • 公司未来将继续专注于三大核心业务：稳定成熟的碱锰电池市场，加快高 ...

降息虽至，美债利率还要走高 20241027 摘要 • 美债利率在降息周期中逆势上行主要受美国总统大选的不确定性、降息预 期推迟以及美国财政状况的特殊时期影响。 • 美国总统大选的不确定性导致市场波动，对美债利率产生压力。目前特朗 普胜选概率较高，但历史经验表明初步民意调查结果与最终结果可能存在 偏差，因此大选结果仍存在变数。 • 美国财政状况的特殊时期对美债利率产生直接影响。美国政府尚未有足够 时间处理财政端博弈，待大选尘埃落定后将进入新的财政博弈时期。此外， 美国财年的拨款法案尚未批复，如果12月20日前没有达成新的持续协议， 将面临政府关门风险。同时，美国的债务上限暂停期将在 2025 年 1 月 1 日结束，如果未能达成新的债务授权协议，美国政府将无法继续举债，可 能导致实质性违约。 • 美联储政策方面，市场预期未来降息节奏可能放缓，不如之前预期那样鸽 派。这一变化部分源自于即将到来的总统大选及其带来的不确定性。此外， 美联储还需应对国内经济数据和全球经济环境变化，因此其货币政策调整 具有灵活性和适应性。 • 政府关门通常与预算拨款决议未能及时通过有关。历史上，最长的一次政 府关门发生在特朗普执政时期 ...

涤纶短纤旺季不旺，四季度将如何演绎 20241024 摘要 • 今年三季度涤纶短纤市场呈现先涨后跌的走势，价格同比下跌 0.84%，峰 值出现在 7 月初，谷值在 6 月初。与去年同期相比，今年三季度淡季逆势 上涨，但进入 9 月旺季却出现下跌态势。 • 三季度涤纶短纤行业开工率同比下降 2.5%，处于近五年来较低水平，主 要原因是多套装置检修或停车。新增两套装置弥补了西北地区的产能空白， 预计全年产量同比增长 4.07%。 • 三季度涤纶短纤行业库存持续增长，截至 8 月份库存已升至 12 天左右， 去库效果不佳。下游企业以脉冲式刚需补货为主，采购力度和频率明显下 降，整体销售基本在 50%以下。 • 三季度聚酯产业链利润表现良好，其中短线盈利最佳，平均利润 260 元/ 吨。但随着供应增加及原料疲软，利润逐渐开始回落。 • 2024 年 1-8 月，我国进口涤纶短纤同比增长 9.41%，出口同比增长 6.07%。 东南亚地区是主要消费地，对该地区出口增长带来一定信心，但也反映出 国内过剩产能问题。 • 今年纱厂和纺织企业面临较大压力，部分纱厂开工水平有所下滑，甚至出 现短暂停工的情况。国内纺织服装消费增长 ...