Flash | 28 Oct 2024 07:56:50 ET │ 12 pages CMOC (3993.HK) 3Q24 Net Profit -15% QoQ on Lower Copper Price and Sales Volume CITI'S TAKE CMOC reported 9M24 net profit at Rmb8.27bn, up 239% YoY, accounting for 71%/69% of Citi full-year forecast/Bloomberg consensus. The 9M24 recurring net profit and EBIT were Rmb8.55bn and Rmb18.49bn, respectively, up 531% YoY and up 171% YoY. Implied 3Q24 EBIT came in at Rmb6.2bn, up 52% YoY but down 24% QoQ, in line with our expectation, mainly due to lower copper and cobalt p ...

Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ): First Take: 3Q24 miss on weak top-line and higher opex; strong cash flow; share buyback announced 29 October 2024 | 1:09AM HKT Nick Zheng, CFA +852-2978-1405 | nick.zheng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Selina Yan +852-2978-0178 | shuling.yan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yan Lin +852-2978-7020 | yan.lin@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Oriental Yuhong reported its 3Q24 results after market close on Oct 28. 3Q24 net profit of Rmb334mn (-67% yoy) came in -27% below our ...

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28 Oct 2024 11:30:47 ET │ 11 pages China Battery Materials China Battery Supply Chain on the Ground: Nov-24 Production Plan Preview CITI'S TAKE The robust momentum slightly cool down when we are approaching into Nov, as ZE Consulting's latest channel check suggests Top-5 battery makers' production is estimated to be up by 1% MoM in Nov-24 (vs 8% MoM up in Oct-24). Within that, BYD continued the strong production pipeline, mainly attributable to the solid EU sales and preparation for front-loading domestic d ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Clean Technology: Solar Poly Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the solar poly industry in China, particularly the impact of potential supply-side regulations on profitability and valuations of covered poly companies such as GCL Tech, Tongwei, and Daqo A & ADR [1][7]. Key Points and Arguments Market Reactions and Price Movements - Covered poly companies' share prices increased by an average of 34% from October 23-25, 2024, due to media reports suggesting upcoming government regulations on electricity consumption and production utilization [1]. Regulatory Background - In July 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) proposed a draft document to set electricity consumption thresholds for poly production at 60 kWh/kg, with stricter standards for other solar manufacturing stages [1]. - The average electricity consumption for poly production was reported at 57 kWh/kg in 2023, indicating that the proposed threshold is close to current industry averages [1]. Supply Implications - Under a 60 kWh/kg threshold, no significant impact on supply is expected, as the base-case assumption already factors in potential exits of less advanced capacities due to cash burn from declining poly prices [1]. - However, under a stricter 50 kWh/kg threshold, approximately 36% of the end-2024 capacity (240 kton/1.1 TW) could be negatively impacted, equating to around 388 GW [1]. Price and Profitability Outlook - The base case anticipates poly prices to remain stable towards year-end 2024, with a recovery of approximately 10% in 2025 due to rising demand [3]. - Under the 50 kWh/kg scenario, poly prices could recover by 12% in 2025, with Tier-1 players expected to see cash gross profit margins (GPM) increase significantly [3][12]. Demand Scenarios - A sensitivity analysis indicates that if demand grows at only 0-5% annually, covered poly players may still face negative cash GPM, while a demand beat could shift profitability outlooks significantly [4][10]. Investment Recommendations - Daqo ADR and GCL Tech are viewed as having better risk/reward profiles compared to Tongwei and Daqo A under various supply-side policy scenarios [5]. - Daqo is rated as a "Buy" due to its strong balance sheet and market position, while Tongwei is rated as a "Sell" due to unfavorable supply/demand dynamics and a weaker balance sheet [16][23]. Key Risks - Risks include lower-than-expected poly prices, higher raw material and electricity costs, and slower-than-expected capacity exits or demand recovery [17][20][22]. Additional Important Insights - The call highlighted the importance of monitoring upcoming government policies from MIIT and NDRC in Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, which could affect supply-side restrictions and domestic solar demand [6]. - The analysis suggests that only the top three players in the industry are likely to meet the stricter consumption requirements, indicating a potential consolidation in the market [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the solar poly industry in China.

Flash | CITI'S TAKE China Coal held its 3Q24 post-results conference call on Oct 25. Mr. Zhao Rongzhe, Executive Director and President, Mr. Chai Qiaolin, CFO, Mr. Jiang Qun, Board Secretary, and other senior management team members presented at the call. The capex guidance for 2024E is Rmb16bn, among which ~Rmb5bn for coal chemical segment. In the next three years the capex is expected to remain at Rmb15-20bn. The call was conducted in Mandarin. Below transcript is based on our notes and translation into E ...

Summary of H World (1179.HK) Research Call Company Overview - **Company**: H World (1179.HK) - **Market Capitalization**: HK$96,494 million (US$12,418 million) [2] Investment Rating and Target Price - **Rating**: Buy [4] - **Current Price**: HK$29.55 [2] - **Target Price**: HK$42.00 [2] - **Expected Share Price Return**: 42.1% [2] - **Expected Total Return**: 44.8% [2] - **Expected Dividend Yield**: 2.7% [2] Earnings Summary - **2022 Net Profit**: -RMB 735 million (Loss) [3] - **2023 Net Profit**: RMB 4,029 million [3] - **2024 Estimated Net Profit**: RMB 4,241 million [3] - **2023 EPS**: RMB 1.202 (608.9% growth from 2022) [3] - **2024 Estimated EPS**: RMB 1.284 (6.8% growth) [3] - **2025 Estimated EPS**: RMB 1.407 (9.6% growth) [3] - **2026 Estimated EPS**: RMB 1.533 (9.0% growth) [3] Strategic Positioning - **Market Position**: H World is positioned to capture structural growth in the mid-to-upscale segment of the hotel industry [4] - **Competitive Advantages**: First-mover advantages in the economy upgrade trend, proven cost management, and advanced technology infrastructure [4] - **Industry Outlook**: Expected to lead the industry rebound and accelerated consolidation [4] Valuation Methodology - **Valuation Basis**: Target price derived from a 2024 EV/EBITDA of 18x for hotel operations, which is 0.5 standard deviations above historical average due to industry-leading RevPAR recovery [5] Risks - **Key Risks**: 1. Pandemic-related fluctuations and travel impacts from natural disasters or epidemics [6] 2. Prolonged economic downturn in China affecting discretionary spending [6] 3. Intense competition among Chinese operators [6] 4. Oversupply of lodging accommodations [6] Analyst Insights - **Analyst**: Lydia Ling [2] - **Analyst Contact**: +852-2501-2475, lydia.w.ling@citi.com [2] Additional Information - **Citi Research Ratings Distribution**: 58% Buy, 33% Hold, 9% Sell [10] - **Citi's Position**: Citigroup Global Markets Inc. holds a significant position in H World's debt securities [9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the research call regarding H World, highlighting its financial performance, strategic positioning, risks, and investment outlook.

对话白酒：一半清醒一半醉，降压调整再出发 20241029 摘要 • 白酒行业面临需求和供给两方面的压力，需求端受经济环境影响，宴席聚 餐和政商务消费表现不佳，供给端则面临上市酒企增长目标不低，竞争持 续加剧，渠道压力增大的问题。 • 白酒行业目前暴露出的风险点主要集中在需求和供给再平衡的问题上，资 本市场已经对这些风险给予了充分定价，但如果企业不能客观地看到宏观 环境并适当降低增长目标，这些矛盾可能会更加突出，导致市场秩序出现 更大波动，对股价和板块估值造成进一步压力。 • 在当前周期底部阶段，实现全国化需要产业周期和经济环境配合，每个企 业应着重于优势市场进行深耕，并持续打造品牌和品质。在下一个周期中， 有望出现全国化弹性较大的企业，但目前来看，实现全国化难度较大。 • 经销商普遍偏好注重长期合作关系且提供兜底方案的大型上市公司品牌， 而二三线品牌由于责任感不足，在价格下降时无法提供合理方案，会被经 销商抛弃，再次获得信任难度较大。 • 今年各个价格带表现如下：大众价格带（100-300 元）表现稳健，次高端 （300-800 元）从去年开始明显承压，高端（800 元以上）去年表现稳健， 今年波动加剧。总 ...

对话欧洲最大资管机构！中国将是世界经济舞台上强大的参与者 20241029 摘要 • The U.S. equity market dominates global market capitalization, accounting for approximately 60%, making it a significant focus for investors. While other regions may grow, it will take a long time for them to significantly reduce the U.S.'s dominance. • Despite recent slowdowns, China remains a strong long-term economic player. Its economy is expected to continue evolving robustly, with a shift towards technology and green energy production, leading to more sustain ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the chemical industry, particularly focusing on the impact of recent crude oil price declines on various chemical products such as low-sulfur styrene, paraxylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), industrial fuel oil, and liquefied gas [1][2] - The call also touches on the performance of industrial silicon and nickel markets, as well as the glass and coal markets, indicating a general bearish sentiment across these sectors [3][4] Key Points and Arguments Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices have significantly declined, influenced by a stable Middle East situation, reduced global oil demand forecasts, and OPEC+ production cuts [7] - Saudi Arabia's voluntary additional cut of 1 million barrels will end in December, with a projected increase in global oil production by 1.5 million barrels in 2025 [7] - The fourth quarter is expected to see further declines in crude oil prices due to seasonal demand drops and increased supply from various countries [7] Chemical Products - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a drop in prices for related chemical products, including low-sulfur styrene and PTA [2] - Industrial silicon prices have retreated after reaching 13,000 yuan/ton, while nickel prices remain under pressure due to supply-side challenges [3] - The glass market is currently in an adjustment phase, with coal prices experiencing high volatility and a generally pessimistic outlook [4] Agricultural Products - The call discusses the performance of various agricultural products, including canola oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, with recommendations to short palm oil while monitoring soybean oil trends [4] - Methanol prices have declined after breaking through resistance levels, influenced by falling coal prices [5] Investment Strategies - For investors unable to directly invest in crude oil, related chemical products such as low-sulfur fuel, high-sulfur fuel, and asphalt are recommended due to their close ties to crude oil prices [9][10] - The call suggests that current market conditions favor shorting opportunities in high-sulfur fuel and asphalt, as demand in the shipping sector is declining [11] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the chemical and agricultural markets is cautious, with various products facing downward pressure due to supply and demand imbalances [15][22] - The glass and construction materials sectors are particularly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, with a focus on the real estate market's recovery potential [18][22] Additional Important Insights - The call highlights the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impact on oil prices and related markets [8] - It emphasizes the need for investors to remain flexible and responsive to market changes, utilizing both technical and fundamental analysis to guide investment decisions [40] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the chemical and agricultural markets, along with strategic investment recommendations.