28 Oct 2024 11:30:47 ET │ 11 pages China Battery Materials China Battery Supply Chain on the Ground: Nov-24 Production Plan Preview CITI'S TAKE The robust momentum slightly cool down when we are approaching into Nov, as ZE Consulting's latest channel check suggests Top-5 battery makers' production is estimated to be up by 1% MoM in Nov-24 (vs 8% MoM up in Oct-24). Within that, BYD continued the strong production pipeline, mainly attributable to the solid EU sales and preparation for front-loading domestic d ...

Flash | CITI'S TAKE China Coal held its 3Q24 post-results conference call on Oct 25. Mr. Zhao Rongzhe, Executive Director and President, Mr. Chai Qiaolin, CFO, Mr. Jiang Qun, Board Secretary, and other senior management team members presented at the call. The capex guidance for 2024E is Rmb16bn, among which ~Rmb5bn for coal chemical segment. In the next three years the capex is expected to remain at Rmb15-20bn. The call was conducted in Mandarin. Below transcript is based on our notes and translation into E ...

Summary of H World (1179.HK) Research Call Company Overview - **Company**: H World (1179.HK) - **Market Capitalization**: HK$96,494 million (US$12,418 million) [2] Investment Rating and Target Price - **Rating**: Buy [4] - **Current Price**: HK$29.55 [2] - **Target Price**: HK$42.00 [2] - **Expected Share Price Return**: 42.1% [2] - **Expected Total Return**: 44.8% [2] - **Expected Dividend Yield**: 2.7% [2] Earnings Summary - **2022 Net Profit**: -RMB 735 million (Loss) [3] - **2023 Net Profit**: RMB 4,029 million [3] - **2024 Estimated Net Profit**: RMB 4,241 million [3] - **2023 EPS**: RMB 1.202 (608.9% growth from 2022) [3] - **2024 Estimated EPS**: RMB 1.284 (6.8% growth) [3] - **2025 Estimated EPS**: RMB 1.407 (9.6% growth) [3] - **2026 Estimated EPS**: RMB 1.533 (9.0% growth) [3] Strategic Positioning - **Market Position**: H World is positioned to capture structural growth in the mid-to-upscale segment of the hotel industry [4] - **Competitive Advantages**: First-mover advantages in the economy upgrade trend, proven cost management, and advanced technology infrastructure [4] - **Industry Outlook**: Expected to lead the industry rebound and accelerated consolidation [4] Valuation Methodology - **Valuation Basis**: Target price derived from a 2024 EV/EBITDA of 18x for hotel operations, which is 0.5 standard deviations above historical average due to industry-leading RevPAR recovery [5] Risks - **Key Risks**: 1. Pandemic-related fluctuations and travel impacts from natural disasters or epidemics [6] 2. Prolonged economic downturn in China affecting discretionary spending [6] 3. Intense competition among Chinese operators [6] 4. Oversupply of lodging accommodations [6] Analyst Insights - **Analyst**: Lydia Ling [2] - **Analyst Contact**: +852-2501-2475, lydia.w.ling@citi.com [2] Additional Information - **Citi Research Ratings Distribution**: 58% Buy, 33% Hold, 9% Sell [10] - **Citi's Position**: Citigroup Global Markets Inc. holds a significant position in H World's debt securities [9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the research call regarding H World, highlighting its financial performance, strategic positioning, risks, and investment outlook.

对话白酒：一半清醒一半醉，降压调整再出发 20241029 摘要 • 白酒行业面临需求和供给两方面的压力，需求端受经济环境影响，宴席聚 餐和政商务消费表现不佳，供给端则面临上市酒企增长目标不低，竞争持 续加剧，渠道压力增大的问题。 • 白酒行业目前暴露出的风险点主要集中在需求和供给再平衡的问题上，资 本市场已经对这些风险给予了充分定价，但如果企业不能客观地看到宏观 环境并适当降低增长目标，这些矛盾可能会更加突出，导致市场秩序出现 更大波动，对股价和板块估值造成进一步压力。 • 在当前周期底部阶段，实现全国化需要产业周期和经济环境配合，每个企 业应着重于优势市场进行深耕，并持续打造品牌和品质。在下一个周期中， 有望出现全国化弹性较大的企业，但目前来看，实现全国化难度较大。 • 经销商普遍偏好注重长期合作关系且提供兜底方案的大型上市公司品牌， 而二三线品牌由于责任感不足，在价格下降时无法提供合理方案，会被经 销商抛弃，再次获得信任难度较大。 • 今年各个价格带表现如下：大众价格带（100-300 元）表现稳健，次高端 （300-800 元）从去年开始明显承压，高端（800 元以上）去年表现稳健， 今年波动加剧。总 ...

对话欧洲最大资管机构！中国将是世界经济舞台上强大的参与者 20241029 摘要 • The U.S. equity market dominates global market capitalization, accounting for approximately 60%, making it a significant focus for investors. While other regions may grow, it will take a long time for them to significantly reduce the U.S.'s dominance. • Despite recent slowdowns, China remains a strong long-term economic player. Its economy is expected to continue evolving robustly, with a shift towards technology and green energy production, leading to more sustain ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the chemical industry, particularly focusing on the impact of recent crude oil price declines on various chemical products such as low-sulfur styrene, paraxylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), industrial fuel oil, and liquefied gas [1][2] - The call also touches on the performance of industrial silicon and nickel markets, as well as the glass and coal markets, indicating a general bearish sentiment across these sectors [3][4] Key Points and Arguments Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices have significantly declined, influenced by a stable Middle East situation, reduced global oil demand forecasts, and OPEC+ production cuts [7] - Saudi Arabia's voluntary additional cut of 1 million barrels will end in December, with a projected increase in global oil production by 1.5 million barrels in 2025 [7] - The fourth quarter is expected to see further declines in crude oil prices due to seasonal demand drops and increased supply from various countries [7] Chemical Products - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a drop in prices for related chemical products, including low-sulfur styrene and PTA [2] - Industrial silicon prices have retreated after reaching 13,000 yuan/ton, while nickel prices remain under pressure due to supply-side challenges [3] - The glass market is currently in an adjustment phase, with coal prices experiencing high volatility and a generally pessimistic outlook [4] Agricultural Products - The call discusses the performance of various agricultural products, including canola oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, with recommendations to short palm oil while monitoring soybean oil trends [4] - Methanol prices have declined after breaking through resistance levels, influenced by falling coal prices [5] Investment Strategies - For investors unable to directly invest in crude oil, related chemical products such as low-sulfur fuel, high-sulfur fuel, and asphalt are recommended due to their close ties to crude oil prices [9][10] - The call suggests that current market conditions favor shorting opportunities in high-sulfur fuel and asphalt, as demand in the shipping sector is declining [11] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the chemical and agricultural markets is cautious, with various products facing downward pressure due to supply and demand imbalances [15][22] - The glass and construction materials sectors are particularly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, with a focus on the real estate market's recovery potential [18][22] Additional Important Insights - The call highlights the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impact on oil prices and related markets [8] - It emphasizes the need for investors to remain flexible and responsive to market changes, utilizing both technical and fundamental analysis to guide investment decisions [40] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the chemical and agricultural markets, along with strategic investment recommendations.

光伏供需改善可期，关注硅料 组件一体化 20241029 摘要 • 组件底价的划定和供给侧改革旨在通过经济手段实现寡头垄断，稳定市场 价格并提高龙头企业的市场份额。组件投标价格最低价（6 毛 8）的设定 并非强制规定，而是由龙头企业和行业协会共同倡议，旨在形成价格联盟， 控制市场价格。 • 光伏技术迭代幅度相对较小，不会出现颠覆性变化，龙头公司仍将保持市 场地位。新技术如 BC 电池和 HJT 电池尚未显示出足够的超额利润来推动 全行业转向，目前更多处于稳定并行阶段，一体化组件公司仍占据主导地 位。 • 供给侧能耗改革主要针对硅料和玻璃，通过控制能耗来调控供应，改善整 个光伏产业链的供需关系，加速改善时间节点。预计这些措施将显著加快 供需关系改善进程，提高市场效率，并进一步巩固龙头企业的市场地位。 • 硅料价格在正常市场化前提下，其现金成本线与需求交汇处的价格大约在 40 至 50 元之间。若进行供给侧改革，控制高耗能、高成本企业的产量， 将导致硅料均衡价格上升到 50 元以上。 • 预计明年二季度光伏行业的供需关系将出现边际改善，基于需求略微增长 和供给持平甚至收缩的假设。国内十四五规划收官之年，美国政策相 ...

重磅宏观事件来临！11 月投资聚焦 20241029 摘要 Q&A 10 月份大类资产的表现如何？有哪些值得关注的热点？ 10 月份的大类资产表现中，涨幅较好的包括黄金、创业板 50 和海外市场。特别 是原油板块，以布伦特原油为代表，在月初表现强劲，但在最近一个交易日出现 了明显回调，开盘下跌 4%，之后最深跌幅达到 6%。这种大幅回调主要由于供需 情况进一步恶化、地缘紧张局势降温以及 OPEC 减产逐步结束。此外，全球进入 降息周期也对需求端产生了一定影响。 • 10 月份大类资产表现中，黄金、创业板 50 和海外市场涨幅较好。原油板 块在月初表现强劲，但近期出现明显回调，主要由于供需情况恶化、地缘 紧张局势降温以及 OPEC 减产逐步结束。全球进入降息周期也对需求端产 生了一定影响。 • 黄金在 10 月份表现优异，涨幅位居大类资产首位，主要原因包括对美联 储降息周期的预期、全球央行持续购金以及地缘政治不确定性增加导致避 险需求上升。未来投资者可以等待黄金价格回调时介入。 • 创业板 50 在 10 月份表现出色，仅次于黄金，是国内以科技为代表的重要 板块之一。科创板 50 和创业板 50 都显示出强劲的 ...

AI 产业趋势下 新一轮半导体全球投资机遇 20241029 摘要 • 过去一个多月，A 股市场半导体板块经历了大幅反弹，主要原因是政策转 向引发的市场预期变化，以及部分半导体公司业绩超预期，估值迅速修复。 • 半导体行业可分为上游设备和材料、中游设计、制造和封测等环节，不同 环节的景气度和需求高度一致，但国产化率提升过程与终端需求周期存在 差异，导致不同环节业绩趋势差异，进而影响相关指数涨跌幅度。 • 中国半导体行业面临着巨大的国产替代机遇，但同时也存在技术壁垒高、 研发投入大、人才储备不足等挑战。政府、企业、高校等多方协同，共同 推进技术攻关与产业升级，实现真正意义上的自主可控。 • 自 2014 年国家大基金一期成立以来，中国半导体产业发展迅速，国产化 率不断提升，大基金二期重点攻克上游生产制造环节，大基金三期则集中 在光刻机、量测设备等高技术壁垒领域。 • 美台市场半导体企业上市公司数量多，股票投资成熟，对股价反馈领先， 因此可以作为 A 股半导体板块的领先指标，为投资者提供确定性的投资机 会窗口。 • AI 产业发展迅猛，对半导体行业产生了深远影响，推动了对先进芯片、 存储器及相关硬件需求的大幅增加 ...

各位投资者大家好我是华创测调配我们本周对于市场的观点叫此前的一个月可能发生了一些变化 重点来说的话我们对于风险偏好的看法可能会变得更加乐观这核心的原因在于剩余利用性会变得充裕当然这可能也算是过去两周市场表现给我们做的一个反思我的基本想法先说一下我觉得可能未来三到六个月我们看到的剩余利用性从低位开始向上大幅的逆转这是非常大概率的事件而股票市场很可能会成为本轮来承接剩余利用性的主战场如果我们考虑到本轮央行针对股票所创设的两个创新工具 那么在未来的六月及明年四月份我们看到新一轮的财报期之前呃货币的宽松所带来的顺利流动性充裕有可能会对风格上所形成大盘小盘强于大盘呃成长跑赢价值的可能性应该像是产生极大的影响呃虽然长期来看的话股票是一个沉重期但是短期我指的是未来的三到六个月很可能像是一个流动性盛宴之下的一个投票期 首先说一下大家比较熟知的这个社区公司的一个测算那基本上我们都是用这个整个央行所产生的货币供应量那么去观测没有被流入到实际经济所以可能会被进入市场吸收的这样一些货币规模所以在实际过程中当然一般对于这个前一端什么能表证货币供应量没有多大的一个分歧或者用M1或者用M2的这样一个同比 而对于实际经济对于这个流动性的吸纳 ...