芦哲：杠杆率和经济刺激——平衡的艺术 20241224 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 中国中央政府杠杆率为21.5%,在 IMF 统计的15个国家和地区中处于全球后 10%, 低于 90%的国家,有较大的加杠杆空间。截至 24年第三季度,中国整体政府杠 杆率为60%,其中34%来自地方政府,其余来自中央政府。从2004年以来,中央 政府杠杆率一直缓慢下滑,到2020年才超过 04年的高点,目前接近 26%。无论 与他国还是自身相比,中国具备充足的财政刺激空间。 更多一手1 版加V: shuinu9870 在财政扩张过程中如何平衡经济刺激与风险控制? 经济刺激与愤多风险之间的平衡是一门艺术,既需要足够的增长来防止经济失难,手调研究会和歌词 又不能过度依赖杠杆率，以免带来政策的不确定地面临加与中国一十一 又不能过度依赖杠杆率,以免带来政策的不确定性和短期内过高的债务风险。历 史上,例如 2012-2013年的欧债危机,就是由于过度扩张导致的心因此,虽然扩 张有空间且相对安全,但必须注重节奏和速度。 货币政策在配合财政政策方面非常重要。在基础货币投放方式上,中国经历了三 个阶段:12年以 ...

Key Points Industry and Company Involved * **Industry**: Biopharmaceutical industry * **Company**: Not specified Core Views and Arguments 1. **Emerging Trends in the Biopharmaceutical Industry**: * **Commercial Insurance as a Key Driver**: The development of commercial insurance is seen as a significant signal for the transformation of the industry from payment to financing end. It is expected to improve the payment environment for innovative medical devices and expand the supply of high-end medical services. The breakthrough in the development of commercial medical insurance is expected in 2025, marking a core policy shift in the pharmaceutical industry. [doc id='1'][doc id='2'] * **Manufacturing Advantage and Engineer Redundancy**: The manufacturing advantage and engineer redundancy in China are expected to make the country a global center for high-cost-performance manufacturing. [doc id='1'] * **Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry Innovation**: The domestic pharmaceutical industry's innovation capabilities have been relatively mature and are expected to achieve global high-end market monetization. [doc id='1'][doc id='2'] * **Balanced Supply and Demand**: After the capital retreat, balanced supply and demand will enable the value of the industry to be reflected, and a large number of new companies will be born with the help of capital. [doc id='2'] * **Pharmaceutical Industry Sub-sectors**: The performance and valuation of pharmaceutical companies are expected to improve from the second half of 2024. [doc id='9'] * **Retail Pharmacy**: The optimization of retail pharmacy supply and the improvement of consumer power are key to breaking the deadlock. The long-term growth of retail pharmacies is driven by the outflow of prescriptions and the increase in industry concentration. [doc id='9'] * **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: Focus on the progress of international reform, the adjustment of the medical insurance catalog, and the changes in the operating cycle of enterprises. [doc id='9'] * **Medical Aesthetics**: The overall medical aesthetics industry is driven by the outflow of prescriptions and the excess supply of the industry. [doc id='9'] * **CXO Industry**: The domestic CXO industry has demonstrated strong cost and capacity advantages. [doc id='9'] * **Innovation Drug Industry**: The development of commercial medical insurance will create new channels and development space for the innovation drug industry. [doc id='11'][doc id='12'] * **Global Market**: The domestic pharmaceutical industry has entered a new round of innovation product cycle after the PT1 antibody. Innovation and internationalization have become the main theme of the industry. [doc id='13'] * **Chemical Synthesis**: The chemical synthesis capabilities of Chinese CMO companies are improving. [doc id='14'] * **New Business Opportunities**: The adjustment of the industry has brought new opportunities for the development of pharmaceutical companies. [doc id='15'] 2. **Multiple Cycles Resonance**: * **Macroeconomic Environment**: The macroeconomic environment affects the overall operating environment of the industry through government fiscal policy and basic medical insurance financing. [doc id='1'] * **International and Domestic Industry Environment**: Changes in the international and domestic industry environment have prompted enterprises to adjust their investment direction, and different enterprises have different input-output cycles, and the industry is in a period of accumulation. [doc id='1'] * **International Payment Environment**: The clear incidence of diseases and the promotion of payment boundaries will promote the construction of a stable and predictable market environment for innovation. [doc id='1'] * **Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry Innovation**: The domestic pharmaceutical industry's innovation capabilities have been relatively mature and are expected to achieve global high-end market monetization. [doc id='1'] 3. **Basic Medical Insurance System**: * **Four Reforms**: The basic medical insurance system is promoting four reforms to achieve flexible treatment and new medical insurance. [doc id='3'] * **Medicare Negotiation**: The overall negotiation rules determine the pricing system of innovative drugs under the national medical insurance system. [doc id='3'] * **Pharmaceutical Product Price Formation Mechanism**: The National Medical Insurance Administration has gradually relaxed the pricing system for innovative drugs and innovative medical devices since its establishment in 2018. [doc id='6'] * **Payment Methods**: The reform of payment methods, such as DRG and DIP, is expected to further improve the compatibility with innovation. [doc id='5'] * **Medical Service Price Reform**: The reform of medical service prices is expected to further improve the efficiency of medical insurance fund use and the rational allocation of medical resources. [doc id='5'] 4. **Capital Market**: * **Capital Market Cooling**: The global capital market has entered a cooling period due to the impact of the epidemic, inflation, and expectations for the future. [doc id='1'][doc id='6'] * **IPO Market**: The IPO market has experienced a downturn in the past few years. [doc id='7'] * **Investment Trends**: The investment trend has shifted from the United States to China, and the proportion of domestic investors has increased. [doc id='7'] * **Investment in Emerging Fields**: Investment in emerging fields such as globalization and new directions is increasing. [doc id='7'] 5. **Policy and Market Changes**: * **Establishment of Expansion Edition**: The establishment of the expansion edition of the system and the implementation of comprehensive registration system. [doc id='7'] * **Capital Structure Changes**: The proportion of USD funds seeking to go abroad is decreasing, and the proportion of RMB investment is increasing. [doc id='7'] * **Investment in Different Rounds**: The proportion of investment in C-round and pre-IPO rounds has increased. [doc id='7'] * **IPO Trend**: The IPO trend in Hong Kong and China is similar. [doc id='7'] * **Impact of Policies and Market Changes**: The global macro environment, the slowdown in economic growth after the epidemic, and the impact of policies and market changes have affected the pharmaceutical industry. [doc id='7'] * **Enterprise Investment Rhythm**: Enterprises have increased their investment during the capital boom period, and the industry is still experiencing a process of industrial restructuring. [doc id='7']

Key Points Industry and Company Involved 1. **Industry**: Retail industry, focusing on online and mobile commerce, particularly through WeChat ecosystem. 2. **Company**: WeChat Mini Program, WeChat Store, and various retail companies utilizing WeChat Mini Program for sales and marketing. Core Views and Arguments 1. **WeChat Mini Program's Role**: WeChat Mini Program serves as a crucial component of the WeChat ecosystem, integrating various channels like WeChat Official Accounts and Video Accounts to simplify transaction processes and enhance user experience, creating a new model distinct from traditional e-commerce [2]. 2. **WeChat Store's Growth**: WeChat Store is experiencing diversification, including WeChat Mall, community marketing, content marketing, and collaborations with offline stores and influencers, catering to different user needs [2]. 3. **Impact on Retail Industry**: WeChat Mini Program is expected to drive further transformation in the retail industry, creating more opportunities for the market [7]. 4. **WeChat Store's Impact**: WeChat Store has become an important platform for brand layout, with many brands actively participating and increasing their marketing efforts during events like Double 12 and New Year's Day [8]. 5. **WeChat Store's Gift Function**: The gift function in WeChat Store is expected to significantly boost business volume, especially during holidays like the Spring Festival [9]. Other Important Points 1. **Retail Industry Valuation**: The retail industry currently has a high transaction volume and relatively cheap valuations, with some companies valued at over 10 times, presenting potential investment opportunities [3]. 2. **Innovation in WeChat Store**: Many companies are utilizing WeChat Mini Program for innovation, such as Qingmu Technology, Luoyuchen, and Chidang Wang [5]. 3. **WeChat Store's Position in the Market**: WeChat Store is gaining attention as a new e-commerce channel, especially with the slowdown in Douyin's growth. However, it still faces challenges in terms of traffic and competition with other platforms like Xiaohongshu [16]. 4. **Future Prospects and AI Integration**: WeChat Store's future prospects are promising, and its integration with AI technology may bring significant changes to the retail industry [17].

石化高股息的配置价值几何?20241224 保险资金投资特性:追求资产负债匹配,而非短期收益最大化;优先考虑 • 久期ICE， • 高股息资产配置趋势:保险资金对高股息资产的偏好增加,尤其在市场低 迷时期。非标资产配置减少,受宏观环境及市场萎缩影响。银行、能源、 石化等高股息行业占比提升。 更多 增配高股息资产的意愿和能力: 票息·乐舒压力促使险资寻求股息替代票息; • 预定利率下降降低负债成本;>开门红等因素提升一季度增配能力;中长期 看,负债成本持续改善,提升权益资产配置比例具备可能。 • 石化行业投资优势:三桶油等企业高股息属性显著;预计未来 1-3年油价 中枢在 60-70 美元,供需关系支撑油价;具备稳健现金流和稳定分红回报。 美国页岩油产量分析:与特朗普首任期相比,当前美国页岩油增产意愿和 能力不足;盈亏平衡成本上升,资本开支限制产量大幅提升;预计产量将 维持在当前水平。 the states of the below the state of the state of the state of the state of the state of 素。这些要求导致保险资金当前以固收类资产为主,因为 ...

三大资产配置策略, 决胜 2025! 20241224 · 广发基金指数基金布局广泛，截至年末拥有 112 支公募指数产品,涵盖 A ，一直 • 2025 年宏观经济环境整体向好,国内稳增长政策持续发力,海外流动性 宽松,为 A 股市场带来利好,预测经济将进一步回暖。得印 2025年成长风格投资机会更优,半导体芯片、医药和新能源等细分板块 • 值得关注,这些板块受益于产业周期向L 、政策支持和估值优势。 美联储持续降息,全球流动性宽松,资金流入新兴市场,推动 A 股回暖, • 预计 2025年 A 股资金面将更加宽松,有利于股价上涨。 • 建议投资者避免过度依赖择时,采用长期布局和分散投资策略,例如定期 定额投资,降低风险,提高投资成功率。 普通投资者可通过定投参与 A 股市场,选择如中证 A500指数等宽基指数 ETF 进行定投,并结合智能化工具设置止盈止损条件。 更多一手调研纪要和研报 更多一手调研纪要和研报 子调研究要和研报数 对于 2025年的整体行情,我们持偏积极乐观态度,这与宏观环境和经济复苏密 切相关。从国内环境来看,自9月24日以来,各类稳增长政策持续推出,包括 央行货币政策、发改委和住建部的 ...

• 歌据加V：shuinu9870 调研纪录和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 用。 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 低利率时代,红利资产为何脱颖而出 20241224 摘要 • • • • 低利率环境下,红利资产凭借高股息率和稳定分红,成为资金配置的优选, 体现出量的优惠,一般人，无旧同低息举和稳定分红,成为资金配置的优选， 体现出显著的防御属性，其长期配置价值在海外市场已获验证，并在人家移炉，shuinu987 政策支援员； 主体 股市场展现稳定投资价值。 政策支持是红利资产脱颖而出的重要因素,例如央行创设证券基金保险公 司互换便利工具,以及国务院国资委鼓励中央企业增加现金分红等,均利 - 3 3 2 3 3 3 次 2 3 7 次 四 2 5 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 4 5 5 5 7 4 5 5 5 7 4 转向价值性资产,选一步提升了高收益资产的吸引力,高股息资产的投资 价值凸显a所纪安 保险资金入市将带来市场增量资金,积极影响多个板块,尤其利好高息绩 优股,预计未来险资入市规模将进一步扩大,公共事业、环保、交通运输 等板块将显著 ...

摘要 • 2023 年计算机行业净利润承压，主要受应收账款减值、资产减值机含绳 * 终行报 * 价值变动等因素影响,但预计2024年随着人员费用下降,急刮润弹性将 提升。 3 狗 2023 年人工智能领域的两大突破:视觉理解模型和连续步骤推理的大语 言模型,前者在人机交互方面带来革命性变化,将推动 AI 硬件终端发展。 大语言模型应用受限于单一模态特性,多模态模型的出现才推动了美国和 中国 AI 应用的兴起,智能眼镜等产品因此受益。 美股 SaaS 板块在 2023年下半年上涨,主要受 AI 技术估值修复、美股降 媳和估值中枢提升等因素驱动,对 A 股市场也产生映射效应。 2025 年人工智能将进入广泛应用阶段,多模态响应速度加快、成本下降、 软硬结合的新商业模式将成为主要特征,国产硬件也将带来新的投资机会。 大厂在大语言模型领域更具优势,拥有更多可变现渠道和场景,而创业公 司面临产品饱和度和覆盖度方面的挑战,字节跳动凭借强大的计算资源和 流量资源在该领域表现突出。 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------- ...

Key Points Industry and Company Involved * **2025 Fiscal Policy Focus**: The document primarily focuses on the 2025 fiscal policy in China, which is expected to prioritize bond issuance, land reserve, and technological innovation. This is likely to benefit related industries and small and mid-cap growth stocks. * **Investment Sectors**: The document mentions several sectors that are expected to benefit from the 2025 fiscal policy and economic environment, including technology (especially AI-related), core assets (telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage), high-dividend stocks (insurance, shipping, power), and certain consumer sectors with valuation elasticity. Core Views and Arguments * **2025 Market Outlook**: The document predicts that the A-share market will experience a震荡偏强, slow bull market in 2025, with stronger performance in the first and third quarters. This is attributed to policy, liquidity, and low base effects in economic data. * **Sector Performance**: High-growth or policy-oriented sectors are expected to lead the market, with the technology sector, particularly AI-related industries, being a key focus. Consumer sectors with growth potential and certain cyclically sensitive sectors are also seen as having opportunities. * **Market Style**: The document suggests that the market style in 2025 will favor both core asset leaders and small and mid-cap companies. Historically, both styles have performed well during bull markets. * **Valuation Elasticity**: The document emphasizes the importance of valuation elasticity, which refers to industries where a slight improvement in earnings leads to a significant increase in valuation. The document provides historical examples of industries with high valuation elasticity during different periods. Other Important Points * **Historical Fiscal Policy Impact**: The document discusses the historical impact of fiscal policy on various sectors, providing examples of how different fiscal policies in the past have influenced sector performance. * **High-Dividend Stocks**: The document highlights the advantages of investing in high-dividend stocks during the year-end and early-year period, particularly due to the attractive valuation and seasonal demand from insurance funds. * **Growth Stock Selection**: The document provides guidelines for selecting growth stocks, emphasizing factors such as revenue growth rate, stability, and industry trends. * **Investment Strategy**: The document offers specific investment recommendations for 2025, including focusing on small and mid-cap growth stocks, technology sectors, core assets, and high-dividend stocks.

摘要 • • • 2023 年中国新能源汽车渗透率超过 30%,在国家补贴政策推动下,销量保 。 影响。 中国家庭购车需求主要受家庭收入和可支配收入影响,房地产投资下滑拖 累投资端,促内需将成为明年政策重点。 更多 中国新能源汽车出口增速较快,但欧盟可能加征关税,企业通过海外扩建 产能应对,出口是解决产能过剩的重要方向。 欧洲传统汽车工业面临挑战,中国新能源汽车凭借技术优势在全球市场领 先,但高关税和欧洲国家财政问题带来挑战,需通过外交协商实现共赢。 中国新能源车企和锂电企业积极扩展全球产能,未来发展方向是通过海外 产能布局实现共赢,避免逆全球化和地缘政治困境。 锂电产业链供需关系不平衡,碳酸锂价格下滑导致毛利率压力增大,技术 创新和降本是关键,但整车厂对电池厂涨价空间有限。 电芯厂通过低空竞技和投资固态电池应对市场挑战,固态电池有望在 2027 年成熟应用,智能驾驶技术快速发展,但渗透率提升依赖技术进步 和消费者接受度。 近期新能源车有哪些利好政策？ 今年下半年，特别是政策层面对新能源车的支持力度较尖。例如，以旧换新的国 家补贴政策对提升新能源车渗透率起到了显著推动作用。尽管 2023年新能源汽 车渗透率已 ...

Summary of Low Altitude Economy Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The low altitude economy market in China is projected to reach 500 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026 and reach 6 trillion yuan by 2035, indicating significant growth potential [1][11][10]. Key Points and Arguments - The low altitude economy is experiencing accelerated development in 2024, driven by policies, technological advancements, and capital influx [1][3]. - The industry is primarily composed of three sectors: general aviation, drone industry, and new electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, with general aviation being the dominant sector [3][10]. - General aviation is showing robust growth, with passenger flight hours increasing by 55% year-on-year and manned flight hours up by nearly 35% [10][13]. - The drone industry has seen a remarkable increase, with cumulative flight hours reaching 23.11 million hours, a year-on-year growth of nearly 92% [10][35]. - eVTOL is identified as the core driver of the current low altitude economy, characterized by low cost, green technology, and automation, laying the foundation for future business models [10][15]. Financing and Investment Trends - The low altitude economy has shown significant growth in financing, with nearly 20 financing events in 2023 and 27 events in the first half of 2024, indicating strong market confidence [7][10]. - Many companies are still in early development stages, with high funding needs, as evidenced by multiple rounds of financing for key players [17][10]. Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to undergo three phases: 1. **Initial Phase (2024-2025)**: Focus on product development, pilot flights, and airworthiness certification, with an emphasis on low altitude cargo applications [18]. 2. **Market Expansion Phase (2026-2027)**: Initial market certifications and exploration of manned scenarios, alongside the establishment of operational networks [39]. 3. **Maturity Phase (2028-2030)**: Formation of a complete supply chain ecosystem, with potential widespread adoption of manned commercial operations [39]. Infrastructure Needs - Development of the low altitude economy relies heavily on both information and physical infrastructure, including communication, navigation, and meteorological services, as well as regional weather stations and general aviation airports [40][20]. Challenges and Opportunities - Despite progress, the low altitude economy is still in its infancy, facing challenges in infrastructure, configuration, and technology, with a long road ahead for commercialization [19][10]. - The industry is expected to benefit from government support and subsidies, similar to the new energy vehicle sector, which will enhance development prospects [17][10]. Conclusion - The low altitude economy in China is poised for significant growth, supported by strong policy backing, technological advancements, and increasing investment. However, challenges remain in infrastructure and market maturity, necessitating ongoing development and adaptation.