降息 避险 央行购金 多重催化利好，当前如何看待黄金机会 20241218 Q&A 11 月份非农就业新增 22.7 万人，高于预期 20 万人，失业率有所上升。劳动参 与率为 62.5%，略低于前值但基本持平。从结构来看，16 岁到 19 岁的青年群体 劳动力环比上升，而 20 多岁青年、中年及老年群体劳动参与率环比下降。10 月 份就业人口减少 35.5 万人，失业人口增加 22.7 万人，失业率为 4.2%，高于预 期和前值。此外，薪资环比增速为 0.4%，与前值持平，这可能会继续对美国通 胀带来压力。 • 美国经济数据喜忧参半：制造业 PMI 萎缩，服务业 PMI 扩张放缓，但消费 者信心指数连续 5 个月攀升，就业数据高于预期，但失业率略有上升，薪 资增速或将持续对通胀构成压力。 • 美联储开启降息周期：11 月会议全票通过降息 25 个基点，基准利率目前 位于 4.5%-4.75%区间，并维持缩表规模不变。声明中对通胀关注度有所 降低，市场预期 12 月可能进一步降息。 • 美国经济软着陆概率较高：尽管经济中枢下行，但部分数据显示韧性，衰 退概率较低。市场宽松交易或利好流动性敏感资产，特朗普上任带 ...

AI 技术在中国的发展前景广阔，根据第三方统计数据，全球 AI 市场规模复合增 长率为 16.5%，而中国市场潜力巨大，其年复合增长规模将更快。AI 技术在制造 业、传统作业以及其他传统行业中的渗透率将持续提升，中国有望成为 AI 应用 大国。目前 AI 生态系统发展降低了开发者门槛，使更多人参与到变革中来。一 旦 IPC 技术应用取得突破，将充分享受高速增长带来的市场红利。目前已有一些 初步尝试，如文娱、短视频、文本生成、教育及工业等领域，这些行业通过应用 AI 技术显著提升费用管控与运营效率。 在手机零部件领域，推荐关注舜宇光学、瑞声科技和丘钛科技。丘钛科技专注于 视觉模组方面，在机器人视觉方面也有很多探索，未来收入和利润弹性较大，值 得重点关注。东江集团控股在手机、可穿戴设备、电子烟和医疗设备领域的收入 持续增长，净利率每年提升一个百分点，从去年的 11%到今年的 12%，明年预计 达到 13%。万德预期东江集团控股 2024 年的市盈率为 5.8 倍，估值并不高，因 此建议积极关注。 汽车、消费电子、互联网及文娱行业专场 20241218. • 港股汽车板块涨跌与大盘基本持平，整车和零部件公司业绩回暖 ...

聚焦中美硬科技，把握科技投资主 20241218 • 纳斯达克指数今年表现强劲，主要受产业趋势推动，尤其芯片和硬件公司 业绩亮眼，宏观经济环境良好，货币政策宽松也起到支撑作用，涨幅主要 由基本面而非估值提升驱动。 • A 股科技板块经历震荡后回升，9 月以来表现强劲，市场情绪回暖，估值 和业绩双提升，人工智能和芯片指数涨幅显著。 • 近期市场情绪积极，科技板块表现优于大盘，资金流入科技板块 ETF，AI 主题持续发酵，半导体板块业绩增长显著。 • 中美关系对科技领域短期影响有限，长期来看中国加速国产替代和自主可 控，寻求多元化合作。 • 2025 年纳斯达克指数存在波动风险，需关注美国经济衰退、货币政策逆 转和 AI 浪潮发展等因素。 • 2025 年科技板块投资前景乐观，产业趋势强劲，但需关注通胀和货币政 策变化带来的短期扰动。 • 国内高科技板块 2025 年的驱动力在于业绩能否落地，尤其在算力芯片和 先进制程领域，国产替代趋势明确。 今年以来纳斯达克指数表现强劲的主要驱动因素是什么？ 1. 产业趋势推动：2023 年三四月份开始，GDP 数据的发布使得纳指的推动逻 辑发生了重要变化，从完全依赖货币政策转 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in China, particularly in the construction, steel, and banking sectors [1][2][45] - Semiconductor industry, including MCU and automotive chips [10][31][32] - AI and consumer electronics sectors, specifically AR glasses [12][34] Core Points and Arguments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has issued policies to enhance the market value management of central enterprises, which is expected to benefit long-term undervalued SOEs, especially in construction, steel, and banking sectors [1][2][45] - Approximately 210 companies are identified as long-term undervalued, with over 60% being state-controlled, and around 40 being central SOEs. These companies may benefit from the new market value management policies [1][8][48] - The China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation has optimized dividend-related fees, reducing the cost for investors holding high-dividend stocks, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of dividend assets and boosting the dividend index [1][2][28] - Dividend assets have seen two rounds of approximately 20% price increases this year, indicating their long-term investment value, particularly for central SOE-controlled companies [1][4][9] - The market is experiencing differentiation, with technology stocks performing well, particularly in brain-computer interfaces and semiconductors, while weighty sectors like consumer goods and brokerage firms are relatively weak [1][10][29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The brain-computer interface industry is developing rapidly, with significant clinical applications and advancements in invasive and semi-invasive technologies, indicating a promising future driven by technological progress and clinical trials [5][30] - The semiconductor industry is currently strong, with high demand for MCU and automotive chips, and domestic chip development is gaining momentum, making it a focal point in the capital market [10][31][32] - AI-related hot topics are emerging, with ASIC chip applications driving the growth of related companies, and innovations in consumer electronics like AR glasses are continuously evolving [12][33][34] - The recent policies are expected to stabilize investor return expectations and enhance cash dividend stability, which is crucial for effective market value management of central SOEs [45][48]

近期国内外政策更新对市场的影响是什么？ 美国方面，由于大选尘埃落定，美国开始交易去监管风险，而非关税贸易战等问 题。尽管 GDP 增长不错，但企业信心并未显著提升，高科技环保监管加码使得企 业投资周期不强劲。四季度 GDP 数据、零售数据及通胀回升均不支持美联储继续 快速降息，因此我们认为 12 月发布明年展望时，美联储会上调增长预期，并温 和调整通胀预期，将四次降息改为两次。同时，美国企业税减免与去监管措施也 带来了新的不确定性。 中国方面，11 月零售数据在剔除补贴相关行业后，相比 10 月有所回落。工业生产进入淡季，消费补贴边际效用递减，加之海外美元走 强，使得商品交易较为平淡。目前更多的是寻找结构性机会，比如出口相关链条 较强、财政支出增加以及二三线城市地产需求等。此外，中国政府强调反内卷， 也值得关注。 • 美联储 12 月大概率降息，但或调低未来降息次数预期，由市场预期的四 次降息改为两次，此举将影响美国债市和股市定价。 • 中国政治局会议及中央经济工作会议释放积极信号，但国内市场反应谨慎， 需关注结构性机会及政策影响。 • 美国经济增长稳健，企业信心未显著回升，四季度数据及通胀回升不支持 美联储 ...

算力新技术：ASIC 对比 GPU20241218 摘要 • ASIC 芯片在 AI 领域，尤其生成式 AI、大语言模型及 AI 训练和推理方面 迅速发展，凭借高性能、低功耗和定制化优势，在英伟达 GPU 供应紧张的 背景下，成为云厂商寻求性价比和供应链稳定的替代方案。 • 尽管 ASIC 普遍用于推理，但先进设计已开始支持部分训练任务，未来或 将在特定训练任务中发挥更大作用，但大规模训练仍依赖 GPU。 • ASIC 规模化部署面临量价和生态链挑战，低功耗和低成本是其优势，但 需建立完善的软硬件生态系统。谷歌、亚马逊等科技巨头正投入资源构建 相关生态。 • 谷歌 TPU v5e 和 v5p 分别面向推理和训练，基于矩阵乘法加速，适用于大 规模深度学习任务，但对大语言模型和部分深度学习框架的适配性仍待提 升。 • 英伟达在 AI 芯片市场保持领先地位，其芯片在算力、通用性和编程环境 方面优势明显，H100 等高端 GPU 仍供不应求。 • 谷歌、亚马逊等公司在 AI 加速器设计上更注重功耗和性价比，而非单纯 追求极致算力，并关注特定应用场景的优化。 • 谷歌自研 GPU v5e/v5p 主要用于推理，已大规模 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the rapid development of battery swapping stations in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with over 4,000 stations established nationwide since 2021, indicating significant growth potential in both passenger and commercial vehicle markets, particularly in heavy-duty trucks and closed scenarios [1][2][3]. Key Points Battery Swapping Model - The battery swapping model shows promising prospects in both passenger and commercial vehicle sectors, with increasing station numbers and reduced service times, leading to higher penetration rates in commercial vehicles [1][3]. - In the heavy-duty truck industry, the battery swapping model has reached a penetration rate of over 10%, with some routes exceeding 50% [3]. Capital Investment Environment - The current capital investment environment is favorable for the new energy sector, driven by policy support and market demand, which promotes the development of new energy projects and enhances the ecological layout [1][4][10]. - Investment in battery swapping station construction is primarily focused on equipment integration, accounting for about 50% of total investment, with the market expected to reach a scale of hundreds of billions by 2027, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40%-50% anticipated in the coming years [8]. Integration of Charging and Swapping Technologies - The integration of charging and swapping technologies is rapidly advancing, with fast charging becoming mainstream. The demand for interoperability is driving the development of integrated solutions, particularly in the ride-hailing market [1][5][16]. Company Performance: CATL - CATL, as a representative enterprise, demonstrates strong profitability, contributing approximately 400 million in profit per frequency, indicating significant future potential and enhanced business expansion capabilities through cross-border market collaborations [1][6][17]. Market Growth and Future Projections - The NEV market is experiencing rapid growth, with both sales and penetration rates increasing. The battery swapping model plays a crucial role in this growth, with expectations for significant increases in battery swapping vehicle penetration rates by 2025 and 2030 [1][7][18]. - The construction of battery swapping stations is expected to accelerate, supported by favorable policies and increasing market demand, which will further enhance the overall industry landscape [1][10][19]. Additional Insights - Notable companies in the upstream supply chain include battery manufacturers and equipment makers like BZ, Hanchuan, and Lianying Laser, which are positioned as industry leaders due to their strong technical integration and delivery capabilities [9][11]. - The policy environment is supportive, facilitating the development of new business models such as "vehicle-battery separation" and "battery banks," which contribute to the overall growth of the battery swapping model [10][16]. Conclusion - The battery swapping model is set to play a pivotal role in the future of the NEV market, with strong support from capital investment, technological integration, and favorable policies, positioning companies like CATL for continued leadership and growth in the industry [1][17].

南方电网的投资情况如何？ 底部二次强 call，继续看好电网 20241217 • 2023 年国家电网投资 5,275 亿元，同比增长 5%，低于预期；2024 年投资 预计超 6,000 亿元，同比增长约 18%-19%，已上调全年预算。 • 2023 年南方电网投资约 1,000 亿元，同比增长近 10%；2024 年预计投资 约 1,080 亿元，同比增长约 15%，符合"十四五"规划。 • 国家电网投资占主导地位，预计 2024 年投资额在 6,600-6,900 亿元之间， 7,000 亿元则超出预期。 • 短期电网投资持续增长，但长期面临经济压力和利润水平挑战，"十五五" 期间或现负增长年份。 • "十四五"期间电网总投资预计 2.8 万亿元，收入目标 3.7 万亿元， 2026-2027 年或面临压力。 • 配网投资占比目前偏低，但随着新能源消纳需求，"十四五"后期配网投 资将加速。 • 自动化、数字化领域增速较低，但仍是长期投资方向，配网数字化投资明 年将保持清晰增长。 2023 年和 2024 年电网投资的总体情况如何？ 南方电网在 2023 年的建设投资达到了 1,000 亿左右，同比增 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The Internet of Things (IoT) industry is currently driven by three major catalysts: AI, robotics, and vehicle networking [14][15] - ByteDance is expected to become the largest AI catalyst in China by 2025, focusing on AI toys that combine large model capabilities with toy formats, which are anticipated to quickly gain traction [14][15] Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Toys**: - AI toys meet educational and companionship needs, exhibit high user engagement, and have low production costs [15] - The second-hand market price for ByteDance's AI toys has reached between 200-500 RMB [7][15] - **Robotics**: - Lexin Technology has a broad layout in the IoT and AI sectors, including the ESP32 chip and multifunctional desktop robots that integrate voice interaction, image recognition, and remote control capabilities [4][15] - **Vehicle Networking**: - Companies like Tesla are accelerating the application of 5G and vehicle networking technologies, which is expected to benefit various IoT module manufacturers [14][15] Company-Specific Developments - **Lexin Technology**: - Launched a multifunctional desktop robot and has developed wireless SoC for edge computing applications [4][15] - **Miyuan Communication**: - A leading IoT module supplier with strong performance in smart modules, collaborating with NVIDIA and Qualcomm, and benefiting from the rollout of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature [17][15] - **Meige Intelligent**: - Focused on vehicle networking and AI computing modules, holding a significant share of BYD's 5G module market, with expected revenue growth from 1 billion RMB this year to 2 billion RMB next year [17][15] - **Guanghe Communication**: - Emphasizing robotics and AI, launched an intelligent robot development platform and high-performance robots, aiming to establish a second growth curve [11][15] Market Outlook - The vehicle module market is projected to experience a large-scale installation period between 2026 and 2027, with a potential pre-installation rate exceeding 9% [18][15] - The U.S. has a well-established position in the AI module market, with a comprehensive range of smart modules from 1.2T to 48T [19][15] Additional Noteworthy Points - Current investment opportunities in the internet sector include companies like Langxin Technology, Miyuan Communication, and Nanhai Network, which have made significant advancements in blockchain, vehicle networking, and robotics technologies [12][15]

火山引擎发布会提到豆包视觉能力，这对于 AI 智能眼镜后续体验至关重要，将 推动视觉模块更多应用落地。AI 智能眼镜是视觉模型最佳应用场景之一，两者 互相促进，共同推动行业变化和技术催化。我们密切关注这一行业，希望投资者 共同学习交流。 谈谈"豆包视觉能力"和智能眼镜的互相成就 20241218 Q&A 豆包的视觉理解模型对 AR 眼镜的发展有哪些影响？ 智能眼镜产品形态及市场前景如何？ AI 智能眼镜未来发展趋势如何？ • AI 智能眼镜板块近期受火山引擎发布的豆包视觉理解模型推动，显著上 涨。该模型具备强大的内容识别、逻辑推理和视觉描述能力，提升了 AI 智能眼镜的交互性，降低了使用门槛。 • 豆包视觉理解模型增强了 AR 眼镜的内容识别、逻辑推理和视觉描述能力， 实现了跨模态信息交互与融合，提升了消费者体验并促进销售增长。 • 智能眼镜产品形态主要分为音频智能眼镜、带摄像头和语音交互功能的音 频智能眼镜以及更高级形态。威登贝尔塔等产品成功落地，出货量远超预 期。 • 英派斯与李卫可合作布局智能可穿戴赛道，但与字节跳动的深度合作关系 尚不明确。豆包的低成本、高效能数据处理服务将加速产业化落地进程。 • A ...