投资客户和财务顾问那本会议不对媒体开放如果您来自媒体请退出本次会议之后与我们联系请注意本次会议的问题和内容可能会被录音那我现在把时间交给Richard好感谢Ana那我们也是在一个周一下午啊推出了我们对2025年的一个展望那我们这个 记者上午好今天是12月18号欢迎来到摩根史丹利每周三的周期论件在线直播我是Hanna基础材料行业分析师今天的代班主持人那临近年底呢我们各个行业2025年行业展望也新鲜出炉那今天首先请我们金融局首席Richard石然和大家分享一下对2025年金融行业的一个展望和观点 这个展望的一个大致的一个方向的还是比市场可能更乐观一些其实我们的主题呢就是还是关注周期少关注一些政策政策当然很重要但是呢这次越来越明显的可能就是更是这个周期自己的一个这个自然见底的一个过程 一会儿这个Rachel也会仔细做一些讨论我们觉得还是有望能在明年下半年见底的那这个见底之后呢这个公司的利润率可能也会逐渐起稳那这个整个对整体的这个我觉得对中国的一些预期还是比较正面的尤其是呢如果这次能够成功的不依靠大规模的刺激成功自然的找底那这将是中国 又是靠这种不可持续的一些刺激杠杆不管是你用杠杆去拉投资还是用杠杆去拉消费大家永远会 ...

那么大体上的话大家去做的话就是说我的数据会作为一个整体的一个数据的一个基础来作为自动驾驶发布的一个基础不论是从软件的车端到云端还是从功能定义到快法实现那么整体上都具备了一个比较核心的作用那么在研发的过程中的话我们可能就是 数据的一般生产流程大概就包括这几步第一步是数据的采集到数据的筛选 从测试车到整体的筛选这个过程实际的可使用的这个数据量可能在所有的这个所有的这个类型中占比可能只有不到10%也就是说每天比如说打个比方我一辆车每分钟比如说生产10个G的数据那么10个G的数据采集车生产10个G的数据那么10个G的数据在一天下来的话差不多应该就是差不多可能打个比方两个T左右的数据那么实际可用的可能也就是几百个G 自动驾驶一些障碍物车啊然后再到一些这个比如说自动驾驶的一些路上一些比如行人啊这些乱七八糟的一些障碍物啊那那你需要做一些大量的标注那么这个数据标注现在也是在走向一个自动化的一个过程有很多公司现在也去在生产一个自动化的标注方案以前就是一个简单的一个人力密集型嘛 问题的收集啊标注啊包括你的某块段的一些升级啊去去做这样的一些整体的一些啊整体的一个流程那么其实在这个业务这个背景上去讲话那其实最后落到三块那就是一 那么 ...

Summary of China Shenhua's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited - **Industry**: Coal and Energy Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - For the period from January to November, the company's performance showed a year-on-year decline, but month-on-month stability was observed, with confidence in achieving slightly above the annual guidance target [2][3] - The decline in coal prices was primarily due to demand issues and high inventory levels, but a recovery in energy demand is expected to support coal prices [2][4] Sales and Pricing Structure - Approximately 75-80% of sales are derived from long-term contracts, resulting in minimal price fluctuations [2][4] - The current coal price environment is characterized by a lack of seasonal demand, but colder weather and economic stimulus policies are anticipated to support coal prices moving forward [2][4] Inventory Levels - The company's inventory is below the industry average, with a stable supply due to coal-electricity integration and a high proportion of long-term contracts [2][5] - Current supply and demand conditions are not particularly tight, although uncertainties regarding demand persist [5] Market Dynamics - The coal supply-demand situation is slightly loose, with increased supply expected from Shanxi's production recovery and the impact of hydropower and economic recovery on coal prices [2][9] - The long-term price fluctuation range is expected to be small, with potential pressure in the first half of the year but support anticipated in the second half if economic conditions improve [9] Cost Management - The company anticipates a slight increase in costs in the fourth quarter due to higher labor and depreciation costs associated with increased self-operated business [2][13] - Overall, the company aims to maintain a low-cost advantage while achieving moderate growth through effective cost control measures [13] Long-term Contracts and Pricing Mechanism - The signing ratio for long-term contracts is expected to be slightly relaxed in 2025, with stable production levels anticipated [2][7] - The introduction of the CPI index is intended to balance the coal-electricity relationship and provide coal companies with greater pricing power [2][8] Future Outlook - The economic outlook for China presents significant uncertainties, particularly regarding demand, but a moderate increase in energy demand is expected [2][15] - The company is committed to maintaining a dividend policy of at least 60% of annual profits while ensuring sufficient cash flow for market opportunities [2][28] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing the construction of new coal mines, with the New Street Mine expected to start production by 2028 [2][14] - Ongoing asset acquisition projects, such as those involving Hangjin and Dayan mining, are in progress, with updates to be provided as developments occur [2][17] Challenges and Responses - The company is focused on controlling costs and optimizing management to navigate market challenges and safeguard shareholder interests [2][29] - The coal industry is expected to face price competition pressures, particularly in coastal regions, due to rapid growth in power generation capacity [2][22] Conclusion - China Shenhua is positioned to maintain profitability through strategic management of costs, long-term contracts, and market adaptability, while also preparing for potential economic fluctuations and industry challenges [2][30]

Summary of the Conference Call for UBTECH Robotics Company Overview - The conference call discusses UBTECH Robotics, focusing on its latest developments in humanoid robots and other business segments such as education and logistics. Key Points Industry and Company Developments - UBTECH's latest generation of industrial humanoid robots has been unveiled and is currently undergoing delivery validation at customer factories, with plans for small-scale production to begin after successful validation [2][3] - The humanoid robots have achieved a handling efficiency of 30 boxes per hour at BYD's factory, with a target to improve this to nearly human levels (50 boxes per hour) by Q2 next year [2][3] - The company plans to implement autonomous task planning and execution for humanoid robots by Q2 next year, expanding their application to other automotive manufacturers and manufacturing scenarios [2][6] Financial Performance - UBTECH reported an 86% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2023, with an expected annual growth of 45%-50% [2][4] - Revenue from education, logistics, and consumer hardware segments each accounts for approximately one-third of total revenue [4] Application Scenarios and Future Plans - The company has a rich reserve of application scenarios for humanoid robots, planning to expand into tasks such as handling, sorting, labeling, screwing, and safety inspections over the next 2-3 years [2][8] - UBTECH aims to deliver around 50 robots for testing and validation to various automotive manufacturers this year, with small batch deliveries expected to start in Q1 or Q2 next year [7][9] Technical Challenges and Innovations - Key challenges in humanoid robot development include productization of core technologies and enhancing large model processing capabilities [10] - Current robots use lithium battery solutions with a runtime of approximately 3 hours, with plans to explore lighter batteries and fixed power line solutions for improved efficiency [12][11] Market Position and Collaborations - The increasing interest from automotive manufacturers in humanoid robots is seen as a positive trend for UBTECH, validating their focus on industrial applications [13] - The company collaborates with several automotive manufacturers, including BYD, and is actively engaged in discussions with various departments in Saudi Arabia for potential large orders [20][23] Education Sector Engagement - UBTECH has entered over 4,200 schools to promote AI education, with significant growth potential in this sector as the company aims to maintain a 30% revenue share from educational robotics [14] Future Projections - By 2025, UBTECH plans to enhance the autonomous decision-making capabilities of their humanoid robots and introduce the next generation of humanoid robots with improved hardware structures [19] - The company anticipates deploying 100,000 humanoid robots over the next 30 years, including other service robots for urban applications [24] Financial Strategy - The company has recently completed a capital raise of approximately 1.1 billion yuan, which is expected to be sufficient for maintaining current development scales, although increased R&D investment may be necessary to stay competitive [29] R&D Focus - UBTECH has over 900 R&D personnel, with a focus on hardware and software development, including AI vision and autonomous navigation [22] Conclusion - UBTECH Robotics is positioned for significant growth in the humanoid robotics sector, with strong financial performance, diverse application scenarios, and strategic collaborations that enhance its market presence and technological capabilities.

Key Points Industry and Company 1. **Industry**: AI Agent technology, specifically focusing on AI Agent platforms and applications. 2. **Company**: Han德信息, a company specializing in AI Agent technology and solutions. Core Views and Arguments 1. **Rapid Growth of AI Agent Market**: AI Agent technology has seen significant growth since April 2023, with a projected market size of hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 50% [2]. 2. **Core Logic of AI Agent**: The core logic of AI Agent includes memory, planning, action, and tool capabilities, working in collaboration with users, environments, and other intelligent agents to solve complex problems [5]. 3. **Role of Large Models**: Large models are a crucial foundation for building AI Agents, responsible for planning, providing tools, and supporting actions, and enabling automated application deployment through orchestration layers [6]. 4. **Advantages in Enterprise Applications**: AI Agents offer significant advantages in enterprise applications, such as reducing labor costs in customer service, improving efficiency, and enhancing customer satisfaction [2]. 5. **Collaboration with Douba**: Han德信息 has entered into a deep cooperation with Douba, leveraging their technical expertise and industry experience to capture a large market space in the commercialization of AI Agents [2]. 6. **Revenue Projections**: Han德信息's AI Intelligent Agent business is expected to have a gross margin of over 50% and is poised to achieve several billion yuan in revenue next year [2]. Other Important Content 1. **Application Scenarios**: AI Agents are applied in various scenarios, such as marketing customer service robots, AI interviewers, project management, and company welfare consultation [8]. 2. **Global Market Size**: The global AI Agent market reached $3.86 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 50% [4]. 3. **Microsoft and Salesforce's Efforts**: Microsoft and Salesforce are actively promoting their AI Agent platforms, releasing corresponding products and services to improve enterprise operational efficiency [9, 11]. 4. **Douba's Development Status and Prospects**: Douba's large model has shown a clear development trend in the international market and has received strategic investment support from several domestic large enterprises. Douba is expected to become the strongest large model enterprise in China next year [14]. 5. **Han德信息's Market Potential**: Han德信息 has a vast market space based on the Douba large model and is committed to providing comprehensive APP solutions. With its strong solution capabilities and industry experience, Han德信息 is expected to gain more market opportunities in the future and further consolidate its important position in the ecosystem [16]. 6. **Han德信息's Customer and Transaction Frequency**: Han德 information currently has about 6,000 customers, with about 2,000 customers making transactions each year, and about 4,000 customers making transactions every three years [17]. 7. **Han德信息's Revenue and Profitability**: Han德 information's intelligent agent platform revenue is expected to exceed 150 million yuan per customer, with a gross margin of over 50% [18, 20]. 8. **Prospects for Next Year**: The company expects to achieve a significant increase in overall revenue next year based on Douba's model, with the potential to reach several billion yuan [21].

风电设备：海陆共振，量价齐升 20241217 摘要 • 2024 年风电设备行业迎来重要发展机遇，陆上、海上及海外市场均有望 取得显著增长，装机量、价格和利润预计将发生显著变化。 • 风电设备价格在经历长期下滑后于 2024 年中期企稳回升，11 月国家电子 招标数据显示，10 兆瓦、5 兆瓦和 8 兆瓦机型价格较之前低点回升约 50%， 但实际价格恢复可能略低。 • 海上风电项目进展具有一定弹性，部分项目可能从 2024 年推迟到 2025 年，2025 年将是重要的并网和开工年份，装机容量保守估计至少达到 10GW， 高峰期可能接近 15GW。 • 海外海上风电市场发展迅速，中国企业参与度高，中能集团、明阳集团等 在海外市场取得显著成绩，海外订单将对公司盈利产生积极影响。 • 风电行业不同环节发展差异较大，整机产业链受价格压力影响较大，非整 机产业链中，海缆维持较高利用率，塔筒桩受施工进度影响盈利压力较大。 • 过去几年资本开支增加导致行业 ROE 和 ROA 下滑，未来提升利润的关键在 于提高现有资产利用率。 • 2025 年风电行业将迎来抢装大年，陆上风电抢装动力不强，但海上风电 由于未完成项目较多 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The traditional switch market is recovering, with signs of demand resurgence from government and enterprise sectors. Major internet companies are significantly increasing their investments in AI, which is driving demand for AI switches. Broadcom's AI SPU shipments have doubled, indicating strong demand for switching chips [1][2] - The global bandwidth capacity has reached 51.2T and is expected to reach 102.4T by the second half of 2025. The trend towards white-box solutions is significant, with Ethernet solutions becoming mainstream [1][3][6] - The global Ethernet switch equipment market is projected to grow to $210 billion by 2025, with the domestic market expected to grow at a faster rate of 10.8% [1][26] Key Trends in the Switch Industry 1. **AI-Driven Networking Demand**: The expansion of AI clusters is increasing the demand for high-speed switches [3] 2. **Growth in High-Speed Switching Chip Demand**: Global bandwidth capacity has increased to 51.2T, with expectations to reach 102.4T by 2025. Domestic high-speed switches and chips are rapidly iterating to catch up with international standards [3][6] 3. **Significant White-Box Trend**: The maturity of optical switching technology supports more efficient and flexible large-scale networking [4][8] 4. **Ethernet Solutions Becoming Mainstream**: Ethernet solutions are expected to drive demand for Ethernet switches [4] Companies to Watch - **Domestic**: - Shengke Communication (leader in Ethernet switching chips) - Unisoc - ZTE - Ruijie Networks - Phoenix - FiberHome - **International**: - Broadcom - Arista - Cisco - **Niche Players**: - LightSpeed Technology, QT rate in optical switching, and industrial switch companies like Hardman Communication and Sanfang Communication [5] Development of High-Speed Switching Chips - Global high-speed switching chip bandwidth has reached 51.2T, expected to reach 102.4T by 2025. Domestic markets are rapidly iterating to catch up with international levels, indicating a strong development phase for high-speed switching technology [6] Market Dynamics - The switch industry chain consists of upstream (switching chips, internal CPUs, memory devices, optical modules), midstream (operator switches, data center switches, industrial switches), and downstream (large enterprise customers). The global Ethernet switch equipment market is expected to reach $210 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2020 to 2025 [26] Future Trends - The next generation of 102.4T switches will iterate in three directions: 1. More complex signal modulation techniques to increase bit rates 2. Increasing single-channel rates and baud rates 3. Increasing the number of channels to enhance rates [28] Conclusion - The switch industry is poised for significant growth driven by AI investments and the increasing demand for high-speed networking solutions. Companies that adapt to these trends and innovate in their product offerings are likely to benefit in the coming years.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The A-share market is currently sluggish, with dividend assets performing exceptionally well, led by major state-owned enterprises such as the three major telecom operators, four major banks, and the three oil giants [2][5] - The bond market is experiencing a significant decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield nearing 1.7% and the 30-year yield dropping below 2%, highlighting the advantages of high-dividend assets [2][4][6] - The U.S. stock market shows divergence, with the Dow Jones index declining while the Nasdaq index reaches new highs, driven by technology companies in the AI application sector [2][7] Core Insights and Arguments - The return of the dividend style is noted, with a shift in focus towards dividend assets due to the rapid decline in risk-free rates, making high-dividend sectors more attractive [4][11] - The outlook for 2025 is optimistic for the capital markets, with A-shares and H-shares identified as key investment directions [2][10] - Recent policies from the central bank emphasize a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality development and stabilize the real estate and capital markets [2][9] Performance of Specific Sectors - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with the ChiNext index leading the decline, while sectors such as the ice and snow industry, copper cable connections, and retail elderly care have performed relatively well [3] - Traditional large state-owned enterprises have shown strong performance, reinforcing the positive outlook for dividend assets [5][15] Investment Opportunities - Dividend assets are highlighted as having significant investment value, particularly in the context of declining bond yields and the transition to a high-quality development phase in the economy [11][12] - The focus on state-owned enterprises is justified by their lower valuations and higher dividend yields compared to private enterprises, making them attractive investment targets [15][17] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the future extent of monetary easing is more critical to monitor [8] - The current economic environment suggests a need for defensive asset allocation, with dividend assets being a preferred choice due to their stable cash flows and lower volatility [13][17] - The future of the Hong Kong Stock Connect state-owned enterprise dividend index is optimistic, with expectations of a return to reasonable valuations and continued high dividends [18] Additional Considerations - The regulatory environment has increasingly focused on cash dividends, encouraging companies to enhance their dividend policies, which has led to a significant increase in dividend announcements [12] - The recommendation to invest in dividend assets through index-based approaches is emphasized for better market representation and risk management [14]

情绪交易难以撼动"春季躁动"的行情趋势 20201217 摘要 • 对政策预期过高导致市场调整。投资者对政策力度和效果的预期较高，但 实际政策落地后，市场反应不如预期，导致调整。 • 政策主要针对居民和企业负债端，旨在改善现金流，但不足以彻底改变市 场情绪。政策效果需要时间显现，投资者不应过度乐观。 • 市场交易过热可能打破春季躁动趋势。过度交易和短期预期会导致市场波 动和内幕交易风险，建议关注基本面和个股机会。 • 在没有明确新政出台之前，应跟随基本面逻辑，坚定信心。最坏时期已过 去，基本面改善将带动估值修复。 • TMT 领域仍存在机会，关注超跌且估值扩张弹性较大的个股。一些细分领 域和个股基本面发生变化，存在投资机会。 • 新的重大政策预计最快明年二季度出现。需要观察当前政策效果和经济指 标，新政出台时间点大概率在明年二季度之后。 • 美国经济风险上升，中国需考虑应对策略。美国经济风险将影响全球经济， 中国需要关注内需和出口，并准备应对更严峻的经济形势。 Q&A 当前市场调整的核心原因是什么？ 当前市场调整的核心原因在于对政策预期过高。投资者对于政治局会议、经济工 作会议等政策信号抱有较高期待，认为这些 ...

AI 陪伴玩具+字节 AI 产业链 20241216 摘要 • AI 玩具市场快速发展，核心在于 AI 技术提升了玩具的互动性和教育价值。 代表性产品包括预案创新的 Photoshop 语音小球、字节跳动的显眼包毛绒 玩具和日本的 AI 萌宠机器人 LOVO，分别面向儿童、全年龄段和成年女性 市场。 • Photoshop 语音小球定价 3,900 元，2024 年 7 月首发后月销量破万，预计 全年销量 8-10 万台；LOVO 售价 2 万元，累计销量超过 1.4 万台；非商业 化的显眼包二手市场售价 2000-5,000 元。 • AI 玩具的优势在于成本低廉、强交互性、教育价值和情感陪伴。成本低 廉体现在只需嵌入简单语音识别和 WiFi 影像模组；强交互性体现在实时 响应用户指令；教育价值体现在个性化教学内容；情感陪伴体现在实体载 体和 24 小时情感支持。 • 二级市场投资机会关注两类公司：一是互联网传媒及娱乐公司，如奥飞娱 乐、汤姆猫、时空文化、恺英网络、盛天网络等，依靠 IP 价值和与 IT 及模型公司的合作开发 AI 玩具；二是玩具代工企业，如溪湖新城等，延 伸至上游产业链与 IT 及模型公司 ...