港股硬件：AI 应用升级背景下的港股硬件板块投资机会 20241210 摘要 • 恒生人工智能主题指数与恒生科技指数高度相关，相关系数高达 0.986， 核心成分股包括腾讯、阿里等大型科技企业，以及京东、快手等公司，反 映了 AI 在港股市场的渗透。 • 2024 年被认为是生成式 AI 手机爆发的元年，安卓厂商已实现 70 亿参数 大模型的本地化部署，预计到 2027 年，中国 AI 手机出货量将达 1.5 亿台， 占据中国 51.9%的市场份额。 • 2024 年也是 AIPC（人工智能个人电脑）元年，预计到 2027 年，中国 PC 市场将因 AIPC 装配比例攀升至 85%而结束负增长态势，并保持稳定增长。 • 小米是港股硬件板块值得关注的标的，其智能手机业务持续增长，并积极 拓展电动车和 IoT 业务，估值水平合理，未来新车型发布将成为催化剂。 • 比亚迪电子业务多元化，涵盖智能手机、汽车零部件、储能设备等领域， 在汽车电子领域表现积极，受益于母公司增长和液冷服务器业务，估值水 平较低，存在超预期机会。 • 瑞声科技核心业务包括光学、声学和结构件，光学业务转向盈利，2024 年全年集团预计营收同比增 ...

Summary of Conference Call on OPPO's SORA Model and Industry Impact Industry and Company Involved - **Company**: OPPO - **Industry**: Video Generation Technology Key Points and Arguments Launch and Features of SORA Model - OPPO launched the SORA model in Q3 2024, achieving significant advancements in video generation technology, optimizing costs, enhancing safety, and improving user experience [1][2] - The model supports three scenarios: text, image, sound, and video, along with five core functions that significantly enhance creative efficiency [1][2] Impact on Various Industries - The SORA model marks the maturity of video generation technology, deeply impacting industries such as film, education, and advertising, improving efficiency and sparking creativity [1][3] - AI-generated videos can reduce traditional filming costs and speed up production, transforming workflows in creative industries [3] Technical Limitations and Trade-offs - The current video generation length is limited to 20 seconds, which is a trade-off for maintaining video quality and coherence, not a regression in technology [1][4] - A time-dragging feature allows users to create longer videos by linking key frames from previous segments [4] Comparison with Domestic Competitors - Domestic large model companies face significant gaps compared to international leaders like SORA, particularly in video length, multi-angle switching, detail handling, and user experience [1][5][6] - Major domestic players include ByteDance, Kuaishou, and Tencent, but they struggle with data quality, computing power, and toolchain integration [5][7] Challenges for Domestic Players - Domestic companies face challenges in data volume and quality, computing power, and integration with professional user toolchains [7] - The need for improved synthetic data quality and increased computing power investment is critical for catching up with international standards [7] Impact on Video Editing Software - The SORA model poses a challenge to video editing software like Adobe Premiere Pro, but Adobe is actively embracing new technologies and may form partnerships with SORA for mutual benefits [1][8] Data Sources for SORA Model - The SORA model utilizes diverse data sources, including public data, social media, professional film materials, game engine-generated data, and CGI data, totaling millions of hours for training [1][9] Future Applications and Industry Impact - SORA is expected to have broad applications in both B2B and B2C sectors, including advertising, film special effects, and virtual reality content creation, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [1][10][11] - In the film industry, AI synthesis can significantly lower production costs and time, allowing for quicker approvals and style demonstrations [12] Educational and Other Sector Applications - In education, AI can recreate historical events for interactive teaching, enhancing student engagement and understanding [13] - E-commerce can leverage AI for personalized product displays, reducing costs and increasing flexibility in showcasing product features [15] - The gaming industry can use AI to generate 3D video data for scenes, improving development efficiency and enriching content [16] Key Issues Affecting Creative Industries - Current challenges include video length limitations, coherence, detail handling, spatial detail optimization, and generation speed [18][19] Technical Challenges in Frame Editing - Implementing frame-by-frame editing faces challenges such as effective frame recognition and ensuring natural transitions between segments [20]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a potential for a supportive policy environment for the industry, with expectations of a growth target around 5% for 2025, which may stabilize market expectations [3][4]. Core Insights - The upcoming annual economic work conference in China is expected to discuss more supportive policies for 2025, particularly in response to external pressures such as the US-China trade tensions [1][3]. - Analysts predict that the government may set a higher budget deficit target, potentially up to 4% of GDP, to allow for increased borrowing to support the economy [4]. - There is a focus on prioritizing domestic demand and the real estate market, with current stimulus measures primarily targeting producers and infrastructure [3][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy Discussion - The central economic work conference will outline the policy agenda for 2025, with a commitment to "moderately loose" monetary policy and "more proactive" fiscal tools [1][3]. - The specific growth target for 2025 will be announced in March, but expectations are set around 5% [3][4]. Government Spending and Economic Support - Actual spending growth has been only 1% this year, compared to an expected 3% [2]. - Increased policy support is anticipated in light of potential US tariff increases, with a focus on consumer-oriented policies [3][4]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Economists expect that if external risks materialize, additional support measures may be introduced, with policy directions likely to remain similar to those of 2024 [4]. - Recent meetings with international financial institutions have reinforced confidence in achieving the 2024 growth target, despite concerns over US-China relations [5].

| --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 景林资产沟通会 会议纪要 | | | 主讲人：金美桥 景林资产合伙人、基金经理 会议日期：2024 年 12 月 6 日下午 | | | 一、 | | | 过去一年,产品还是坚持配置全球优质资产,寻找商业模式好、竞争 | | | 壁垒高、增长潜力高、注重股东回报的优秀企业, 毕竟只有最优质的资产, | | | 才能长期跑赢通胀，穿越历史周期。 | | | 在市场选择上,目前主要以海外市场为主,仓位偏重于中国香港市场。 | | | 主要还是因为我一直以来强调的，香港市场目前仍然是全球的估值洼地, | | | 恒生指数目前整体 PE 不到 9 倍，PB 不到1 倍，平均股息回报也有 4% | | | 附近。而且从资金流向上看, 香港市场今年南下资金买入超过 6000 亿, | | | 加上上市企业回购超过 2000 亿港币，充分说明香港市场的估值水平具有 | | | 较大的吸引力。至于投资 ...

୧୧ 特别报道: 限 "芯" 再升级 联合惩戒反电诈 18 IXIn Wer 高才踊跃入香港 重塑反洗钱机制 50 44 汽车供应链重构 欧洲航司停飞潮 79 74 i 40元 港币60元 www.caixi 本期封面人物：韩国总统尹锡悦 育尔6小时事变 韩国政治对立缘何走到如此激烈的地步, 戒严流产之后,未来还有 哪些变数和风险 P. 28 2024年 第48期 12月9日出版 总第1134期 邮发代号: 32 - 235 财新观察｜发挥外商独资医院作⽤ 有效满⾜多元 化就医需求 CAIXIN| 听⽂章 医疗领域有序扩⼤开放。⽇前，国家卫健委、商务部等四部⻔印发 《独资医院领域扩⼤开放试点⼯作⽅案》（下称试点⽅案）。试点 ⽅案开宗明义：试点允许设⽴外商独资医院，引进国际⾼⽔平医疗 资源，丰富国内医疗服务供给，优化营商环境，为⼈⺠群众和在华外 籍⼈⼠等提供多元化医疗服务。为使试点⼯作取得预期成效，应努 ⼒创造有利条件、清除种种障碍，以充分发挥外商独资医院的独特作 ⽤。 改⾰开放以来，中国关于外资开办医疗机构的政策⼏经变化。早期， 外商办医限于⾮营利性质或者合资、合作形式。2010年，国办印发 《关于进⼀步⿎励 ...

10 分钟政治局火速解读：五大超预期 20241209 摘要 • 2024 年 12 月政治局会议超预期地确认 2023 和 2024 年经济发展目标顺利 完成，并提前召开会议以衔接年底和年初经济工作。 • 会议明确提出"稳住股市楼市"，强调稳定股市和楼市对激活内需、稳定 整体经济的关键作用。 • 货币政策定调由"稳健"调整为"适度宽松"，这是十年来最大变化，预 示着 2025 年降息降准措施可期，并可能提前落地。 • 会议强调加强超常规逆周期调节，充实完善政策工具箱，并可能采取突破 性措施，例如引入平等基金、扩大商品补贴等。 • 扩内需被提前排序，民生保障加码，显示政府更重视扩大内需解决总量问 题，并将在托幼、养老、生育和教育等领域加大投入。 • 经济数据验证对市场影响重大：若明年两会前数据验证政策预期下限，市 场将继续前行；若三四月份政策第二步验证不及预期，市场可能短期调整。 • 2018 年以来，宏观总量政策首次出现乐观态势，目前正处于第三方验证 阶段，未来中央经济工作会议将提供更多细节。 Q&A 2024 年 12 月政治局会议有哪些超预期的表态？ 2024 年 12 月政治局会议有五大超预期表态。首 ...

11 月经济数据陆续发布，政策逐渐显现效果 20241209 摘要 • 中国市场今日表现疲软，但盘后受重磅政策利好影响，A50 股指期货及港 股大幅反弹，显示政策对市场信心提振显著。 • 12 月份的两场重要会议提出深化改革、扩大开放等，并强调稳住楼市和 股市，这将对房地产和资本市场产生深远影响，预计将带来更多增量财政 政策。 • 11 月 CPI 和 PPI 数据保持稳定，为未来加大政策力度提供了良好的物价 基础；即将发布的 11 月实体经济数据将进一步影响未来政策走向。 • 政策大力提升消费和投资效益，扩大内需，促进科技创新和产业融合发展， 以稳住楼市股市，确保居民财富稳定。 • 近期红利方向板块、人形机器人及相关材料板块表现突出，与特斯拉发布 第二代人形机器人和华为持续加码布局密切相关，PK 材料因其特性备受 关注。 • 市场成交额维持在较高水平，换手率稳定在 1.5%左右，显示市场热度较 高，但需警惕阶段性高成交额带来的风险。 • 中国央行增持黄金，对金价和黄金股产生积极影响，但需关注国际金价波 动和供需关系。技术面分析显示市场已形成中线级别背离结构并出现反转， 建议关注 5 日均线及背驰现象来辅助判 ...

港股策略：复杂多变中寻找结构性机会 20241209 摘要 • 2025 年港股海外市场投资机会与风险并存，受中美政策博弈、美国通胀 及地缘政治影响显著。中美贸易摩擦可能导致市场波动，需密切关注政策 变化。 • 回顾 2018 年中美贸易战，港股下跌约 20%，A 股跌幅超过 25%。特朗普政 府的关税政策增加了约 3,300 亿美元成本，但部分通胀压力可能被其他因 素消化。 • 中国企业通过降低对美贸易依赖度及分散外资定价权等方式应对贸易摩 擦，但港股短期仍面临资金外流压力。 • 美国通胀缓慢下行，但美联储对未来经济前景保持谨慎，利率政策调整取 决于最新数据和政府政策。2025 年末利率预计降至 3.5%左右。 • 当前财政政策核心目标是缓解地方和家庭困境，未来可能出台更大规模的 经济刺激政策和改革措施。 • 港股目前市盈率约 9.8 倍，估值较低，未来走势预计区间震荡。美股估值 较高，短期可能面临调整。建议关注传统板块、中小盘股票及对冲工具。 • 高红利选股策略在当前市场环境下具有吸引力，建议关注香港银行股、非 银行金融类股票、公用事业类股票及部分消费品公司。高息股指数长期表 现优于恒生指数。 Q&A 2 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Guzi Economy**: The Guzi economy, which includes IP peripheral products, is experiencing rapid growth due to its emotional value and viral spread characteristics in the context of consumer recovery. However, the downstream industry chain is still in its early stages, facing risks related to IP updates and regulatory scrutiny [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Trends**: The current investment enthusiasm for the Guzi economy is linked to societal psychology, where consumers seek emotional value. Products like blind boxes and cards have gained popularity, reflecting a trend towards self-indulgent consumption [2][4]. - **Market Risks**: Despite the growth, there are significant risks in the Guzi economy, including the uncertainty of new and old IP updates and the potential for regulatory attention due to excessive speculation on popular IPs [3][4]. - **Humanoid Robots**: The humanoid robot concept is gaining traction due to advancements in AI technology and the promising application of industrial robots. However, the current market growth and scale do not support high valuations, necessitating caution regarding market risk appetite [5]. - **Bond Market Dynamics**: The 10-year government bond yield has fallen below 2%, indicating a favorable configuration value in the bond market amid liquidity easing. There are still opportunities for bullish positions in the bond market, potentially leading to a dual win scenario for stocks and bonds [6]. - **Market Trends in November 2024**: The market exhibited a V-shaped trend in November 2024, with rising risk appetite in the first half and a decline in the second half due to policy expectations and overseas uncertainties [7][8]. - **Economic Outlook**: The macroeconomic environment shows resilience despite being in a traditional off-season. Effective policies have helped stabilize the economy, with exports expected to contribute positively to the overall growth target for the year [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, with the potential for further easing in response to currency fluctuations and economic conditions. The focus is on supporting the real economy rather than prioritizing currency stabilization [11][12]. - **US Economic Risks**: The US economy faces risks from potential policy changes under the Trump administration, which could lead to job losses and a decline in consumer spending. The manufacturing sector's ability to adapt to these changes remains a challenge [13]. - **Impact of Export Restrictions**: Recent US export restrictions on semiconductors have disrupted supply chains, prompting China to accelerate its domestic semiconductor industry development. This situation may enhance China's competitiveness and resilience in the semiconductor sector [15][16]. Conclusion The Guzi economy and humanoid robots represent emerging investment opportunities, but they come with inherent risks. The bond market shows potential for growth, while macroeconomic indicators suggest a stable outlook. Investors should remain vigilant regarding market dynamics and policy changes that could impact these sectors.

12 月人民币汇率月度展望——《一周外汇前瞻》20241209 摘要 • 11 月份美元兑人民币汇率上涨，主要受特朗普政府对中国、墨西哥和加 拿大征收关税的影响，但市场反应相对平稳，中国央行采取了护盘措施。 • 特朗普政府在 10 月底宣布关税措施，旨在重新构建北美贸易规则，解决 贸易逆差和工作岗位流失问题，并可能用于打击非法移民和芬太尼问题。 • 如果特朗普进一步提高对中国商品的关税，中国出口可能下滑 1.9%到 2%。 • 12 月初，国内国债收益率跌破 2%，美元兑人民币汇率大幅上行，主要由 于市场预期变化和外部环境不确定性增加，以及离岸人民币汇率突破 7.0 的心理关口。 • 近期美元对人民币汇率大幅上行，是由于美债收益率高位、美元指数上涨 （受欧元疲软和特朗普政府政策影响）、以及中国央行可能提前释放人民 币贬值压力等因素共同作用。 • 特朗普 2.0 内阁成员年轻化、忠诚度高，但专业性相对不足，政策推进效 率提高，但政策不确定性增加，对华政策强硬但寻求利益平衡。 • 特朗普第二任期面临通胀、地缘政治和财政状况等挑战，其政策（减税、 加关税、控通胀、维护美元地位）之间存在冲突，未来走势存在不确定性。 ...