上海国际会议中心东方滨江大酒店 2024/11/26-28(周二至周四) 中信建投证券2025年度资本市场峰会 China Securities 2025 Capital Markets Summit 與 · 分析师：何盛 分析师：夏凡捷 hesheng@csc.com.cn 证券研究报告2025年投资策略报告 "信心重估牛" ： 从流动性牛到基本面牛 SAC执证编号：S1440522090002 分析师：陈果 chenguodcq@csc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S1440521120006 SFC 编号:BUE195 分析师：李家俊 lijiajunbj@csc.com.cn SAC执证编号：S1440522070004 xiafanjie@csc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S1440521120005 研究助理：胡远东 huyuandong@csc.com.cn 分析师：郑佳雯 分析师：姚皓天 yaohaotian@csc.com.cn SAC 编号:S1440523020001 zhengjiawen@csc.com.cn SAC 编号:S1440523010001 本报告由中信建投证券 ...

特朗普威胁对中国、墨西哥、加拿大征收关税 市场动荡 当选总统指出毒品和人口跨境流动 共和党誓言在第二任期加强边境安全 候任总统唐纳德·特朗普誓言对中国以及美国邻国加拿大和墨西哥征收额外关税， 这是他赢得大选以来首次明确威胁要遏制全球贸易流动，引发市场动荡。 特朗普周一在其"真相社交网络"上发帖称，他将对来自中国的商品征收 10% 的额外关税，对来自墨西哥和加拿大的所有产品征收 25% 的关税。受此消息 影响，加元跌至四年来的最低点，而比索则接近 2022 年以来的最低水平。人 民币在离岸市场小幅走低。 特朗普认为，新税是打击跨境移民和非法毒品的必要措施。他指责中国未能履 行对芬太尼贩运者判处死刑的承诺，并写道："毒品正大量涌入我国，主要是 通过墨西哥，数量之多前所未有。" 特朗普称："在他们停止征收关税之前，我们将对中国输美的所有产品征收额 外 10% 的关税，高于任何额外的关税。" 在另一篇帖子中，这位新任总统还誓言对墨西哥和加拿大"所有产品"征收 25% 的关税，并表示他将在上任第一天签署行政命令。 "众所周知，成千上万的人涌入墨西哥和加拿大，带来了前所未有的犯罪和毒 品，"他说。"这项关税将一直有效，直 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The A-share market is expected to enter the second phase of a bull market in 2025, driven by improvements in GDP components, although the process may be fraught with challenges [2][1] - Global economic and political uncertainties will impact the A-share market, necessitating attention to geopolitical risks and the dollar's performance [3][1] Core Economic Factors - Key domestic economic factors for 2025 include: - Transition from low inflation to moderate inflation [4][1] - Economic expectations shifting from continuous downward revisions in 2024 to sustained outperformance in 2025 [4][1] - Shift in stock market style from concentration to diversification, influenced by a change in policy mindset [5][1] Investment Strategy and Sector Allocation - Recommended sector allocation for 2025: 1. Prioritize technology growth and self-sufficiency [7][1] 2. Focus on brokerage and insurance sectors [7][1] 3. Consider opportunities in real estate, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [7][1] 4. Lastly, look at the consumer sector, including home appliances, light industry, automobiles, food and beverages, and personal care [7][1] - Long-term investment strategies should include enhancing the CSI 300 index and focusing on state-owned enterprise dividend blue chips [27][1] Impact of Federal Reserve Policies - The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on China is expected to be limited, as a strong dollar may hinder large-scale foreign capital inflows [8][1] - Historical trends suggest that while rate cuts typically lead to increased foreign investment in China, the current strong dollar environment necessitates a focus on self-sufficiency [9][1] Political Environment and Global Dynamics - The geopolitical landscape and global elections in 2024 will create uncertainties that may affect asset prices [10][1] - The potential for increased trade fragmentation and pressure on export chains due to geopolitical tensions is anticipated [10][1][11] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Economic recovery is expected to be gradual, with a shift from point-based to widespread consumer market expansion anticipated in the second quarter of 2025 [21][1] - The consumer market is projected to favor discretionary spending over essential consumption [22][1] Long-term Investment Considerations - High dividend investment strategies are expected to retain long-term value, despite a potential decrease in short-term excess returns [23][1] - The importance of distinguishing between export and overseas investment strategies is expected to grow due to increasing trade tensions [11][1] Conclusion - The second phase of the bull market in 2025 is characterized by a focus on quality stock pricing recovery, with an emphasis on technology growth and self-sufficiency sectors [19][1][20][1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the office software industry, particularly highlighting the advancements in AI and domestic innovation (信创) applications as key growth drivers in the sector [1][12]. Key Company Insights Kingsoft Office (金山办公) - Kingsoft Office's C-end AI membership has surpassed 2 million, achieving a penetration rate of nearly 5%. The AI applications are driving revenue growth and enhancing active user numbers, payment rates, and average revenue per user (ARPU), indicating significant future growth potential [1][2]. - The company has a strong position in the government and industry sectors with its 信创 business, capturing 70%-80% of the new PC tender market, which is expected to yield substantial revenue and profit elasticity as tenders materialize [1][3]. - Kingsoft's overall performance is solid, with a projected 27x price-to-sales (PS) valuation for 2025, corresponding to a target market value of 172 billion RMB and a target stock price of 372 RMB, maintaining a buy rating [1][4]. Huixin Company (胡鑫公司) - Huixin Company is a leading player in the global PDF industry, ranking second or third after Adobe. The company has transitioned to a SaaS subscription model for its PDF editor, which has resulted in over 50% of its revenue coming from subscriptions, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) showing double-digit growth [1][5][6]. - The company aims to reach an ARR of 1 billion USD by 2026 or 2027, indicating a strong trajectory for SaaS commercialization [1][6]. - Huixin's acquisition of Fuxing Kunpeng is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the 信创 sector, with a revenue commitment of no less than 60 million RMB annually over the next three years [1][8]. Hanyi Co. (汉仪股份) - Hanyi Co. is the second-largest player in the Chinese font software market. The company is actively transforming its business model to a SaaS approach, allowing direct purchases from designers and B-end clients, which has become a new growth point [1][9][11]. - The company has made several AI-related acquisitions, significantly improving its market competitiveness and financial performance. For instance, its recent partnerships with major clients like Naixis and Starbucks are expected to generate substantial revenue [1][9][11]. Market Dynamics - The office software market is characterized by a broad user base, diverse functionalities, and varied business models. The integration of AI and 信创 is catalyzing growth, with AI driving both volume and pricing strategies that enhance monetization opportunities [1][12]. - The tendering process for 信创 products is expected to bring clear revenue elasticity, with stable pricing contributing to profit margins [1][12]. Recommendations - Kingsoft Office is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with additional attention recommended for Fuxing Software and Hanyi Co. due to their significant potential and growth prospects in the current market environment [1][13].

黄金意外回调，重整旗鼓再出发 20241125 摘要 • 特朗普当选后，黄金价格先回调后反弹，目前已恢复到回调幅度的一半， 今年涨幅接近 30%，跑赢主要股指。 • 黄金与 A 股市场存在弱相关性甚至负相关性，纳入资产配置可有效分散风 险，尤其在 A 股市场调整时期，黄金的避险价值凸显。 • 特朗普新政可能加剧贸易摩擦，提高关税，对全球经济和中国企业造成冲 击，但中国经济韧性较强，有望应对挑战。 • 美联储降息周期仍在持续，但降息次数可能减少，美国经济增速预计放缓， 需警惕硬着陆风险。 • 特朗普政府可能取消新能源补贴，限制中国科技发展，但中国自主可控能 力提升，可有效应对外部挑战。 • 未来 1-2 年，实际利率是影响黄金价格的关键因素，实际利率下降将利好 黄金价格。 • 黄金 ETF 投资成本低、流动性高、安全可靠，并可获得租赁收益，华安易 方达黄金 ETF 是亚洲最大的黄金 ETF，表现优异。 Q&A 特朗普当选后黄金价格的波动情况如何？华安基金团队对此有何看法？ 特朗普当选后，黄金价格出现了大幅回调。我们团队在 11 月初发布了报告，建 议投资者珍惜这次回调的机会。随后，金价迅速反弹，目前已恢复到回调 ...

广东电力交易方案发布，关注电量电价三因子 20241125 摘要 • 广东 2025 年电力交易方案更加市场化，提高各类电源市场化比例，售电 竞争比例不低于 70%，90%以上发电企业签订长期协议，旨在稳定盈利， 但峰谷差收益将收窄。 • 动力煤价格下降至 835 元/吨，主要由于电厂补贴结束和气温回升，但市 场对水电和核电关注度低，因基本面未显著改善。 • 过去一周火电及整体电力板块向好，皖能、中广核等公司股价上涨，但上 涨家数少于下跌家数。市场关注年度长期定价签订，对电价评估短期悲观， 但大型电力公司报价降幅小于预期。 • 核电脱硫政策变化使核准价格更灵活，改善了核电脱硫后的利润水平，但 具体影响取决于价格波动幅度。 • 新能源入市加速，但盈利模式面临挑战，需扩大长协比例或进入基数电量， 但基数电量比例下降，可能面临比市场预期更大的利润冲击。 • 煤炭发电竞争力强，政策支持力度大；核能变化不大；新能源盈利模式弱 化。政策推动用电价反映实际成本，并推动辅助服务和容量电价执行。 • 火电行业运营稳定性乐观，2025 年利润减去分红不会导致净资产损毁， 估值位置相对较好。建议根据对电价预期的不同，选择皖能电力、 ...

AI Agent 的深度再解读及更新 20241125 摘要 • 目前人机交互主要模式包括嵌入式模式、可编程模式和智能体模式，其中 智能体模式的参与度最高，但需要用户设定目标和身份，并提供工具。 • 智能体架构包含长期记忆、短期记忆、规划任务能力和工具使用能力四个 模块，通过规划模块将复杂任务分解成子目标，并利用工具模块完成任务。 • 单智能体系统基于马尔科夫决策过程，通过试错学习以获得最大奖励；多 智能体系统则存在合作或竞争关系，每个智能体目标是获得最大的长期积 累奖励。 • 智能体应用广泛，包括自动驾驶、智能电网等领域，目前较为成熟的是自 动化和情感陪伴类智能体，预计到 2026 年，情感陪伴类智能体市场规模 将达 2000 亿美元。 • 然而，智能体开发成本高昂，大模型消耗 token 量大，多智能体系统交互 层面也增加了无效成本，因此需要对效能进行成本讨论及策略优化。 • 软件和信息服务业、银行业和通讯行业在人工智能方面投入最多，预计到 2027 年，这三大行业投资占比分别为 23.8%、9.7%和 9.4%。 • 中国政策对人工智能和算力的支持，以及企业积极投入，将推动国内 AI 技术快速落地和规模 ...

Summary of AI Toy Market Research Industry Overview - The global AI toy market is projected to exceed $35 billion by 2030, indicating significant growth potential and investor interest in the application of AI hardware in education and emotional companionship [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - AI toys are widely used in education and emotional companionship, enhancing user willingness to pay. For instance, ByteDance's "Xianyan Bag" features bilingual capabilities and interactive storytelling [1][3] - The overseas AI toy market has notable participants, such as Cue Rui's plush toys powered by Open AI models, priced at $99 each, which offer personalized interaction and storytelling [1][5] - The domestic AI toy market is becoming increasingly competitive, with products like ByteDance's "Xianyan Bag" and Photon’s AI cactus showcasing market vitality [1][6] Key Companies to Watch - In the A-share market, companies like Shifeng Culture, Shanghai Film, Tom Cat, and Aofei Entertainment are actively engaging in the AI toy sector, collaborating with related enterprises to enhance competitiveness [1][7] - Shanghai Film has recently increased its stake by 100 million yuan to strengthen its IT sector presence and plans to collaborate with quality startups to develop AI toys [1][7] Additional Important Aspects - AI technology can also empower IP and animation sectors, enhancing IP value. Companies like Zhongwen Online and Huali Technology are noteworthy in the IP space, while Aofei Entertainment and Huace Huawen are significant in the animation sector [1][8] - The development of the AI toy market is influenced by policies, technology, and consumer demand, with future trends dependent on advancements in large model technology, consumer acceptance, and changes in market competition [1]

生猪：寒潮催化可期，25 年景气依旧 20241125 摘要 • 生猪价格短期走弱，但年底消费旺季将带动价格上涨，12 月出栏量环比 增长，但增幅不会过大。 • 2024 年为生猪行业周期转换期，2025 年将进入更长期周期，母猪补栏低 迷导致供应恢复缓慢，利好行业盈利。 • 投资策略转向关注个股成长和成本改善，低成本、高效率企业将获得竞争 优势，高成本高负债企业扩张受限。 • 生物养殖行业投资环境转变为周期成长与价值投资并重，龙头企业进入稳 健增长阶段，加大分红力度，价值投资机会凸显。 • 2025 年中期投资策略应聚焦低成本企业，即使在悲观情况下，低成本企 业仍能实现超额利润，具备长期成长空间。 • 推荐关注牧原股份、温氏股份、神州集团、巨星农牧、天康生物等低成本、 财务健康、负债率低的公司。 • 评估公司财务健康状况需关注完全成本控制情况和资产负债率及改善路 径，低成本和负债率健康是关键指标。 Q&A 今年年底气温下降后，生猪现货价格可能会有哪些表现？ 过去一个多月，生猪板块的猪价呈现走弱趋势。截至 11 月 24 日，全国现货价格 为每公斤 16.36 元，环比上升 0.1 元，但同比下降 1.24 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Chilean Lithium Mining Industry Overview - The nationalization process of lithium resources in Chile is ongoing, with major producers SQM and Albemarle operating under long-term leases, leading to uncertainties regarding lease renewals and quota allocations, which may impact long-term investment value [1][2][6] - Chile's lithium production is expected to reach 300,000 tons next year, representing a significant portion of the global supply chain, but nationalization policies, tax regulations, and potential legal disputes could affect the industry's future development and investment value [1][10] Production and Financials - In 2023, SQM produced 190,000 tons of lithium carbonate, with an expected increase to 210,000 tons in 2024. Albemarle's production was approximately 50,000 to 60,000 tons, projected to rise to 70,000 to 80,000 tons in the coming years [1][3][4] - The cash production cost of lithium carbonate in Chile is around $4,000 per ton, but high tax rates can significantly impact profit margins, with rates reaching up to 40% at higher price levels [1][5] Company-Specific Insights - Tianqi Lithium holds a 22% stake in SQM, corresponding to a production of approximately 44,000 tons. The nationalization process and legal disputes introduce uncertainties regarding its rights and future production [1][8][9] - Tianqi Lithium's net profit for the third quarter was between 200 million to 300 million RMB, with an annual projection of less than 1 billion RMB. Both Tianqi and Albemarle are expected to share quotas in a new joint venture framework, each aiming for at least 240,000 tons annually [7][8] Legal and Regulatory Challenges - Tianqi Lithium has raised legal concerns regarding its decision-making rights as a shareholder, claiming that SQM's actions were not compliant with proper governance procedures. However, the overall impact on the company is expected to be limited if contracts are adhered to [9] Future Projects and Considerations - The Maricunga salt lake project is anticipated to commence production in Q1 2026, with a total cost of approximately $5,864 per ton. The project's profitability and its implications for the global lithium supply chain are noteworthy, although water consumption and community relations pose potential challenges [1][11] - The lithium projects in Chile are crucial for the global supply chain, with expected production reaching 300,000 tons next year, which is a significant share of the global supply of 1.2 to 1.3 million tons [10] Market Valuation - Despite market fluctuations leading to a decline in Tianqi Lithium's stock price, the company's high-quality assets in the Chilean lithium sector are considered undervalued, presenting a good investment opportunity during low valuation periods [1][13]