市场震荡反复，红利+科技仍会是年末投资主线吗 20241125 摘要 • A 股市场近期波动剧烈，主要受政策预期、美元指数走强、美债收益率反 弹等多重因素影响。9 月底的政策利好刺激市场反弹，但 11 月后美元走 强和美债收益率上升导致市场震荡。 • 政策层面，5,000 亿首期换电力资金安排、3,000 亿上市公司回购专项再 贷款落地以及中央政治局会议关注地方政府发债、房地产等，对市场资金 面和预期产生积极影响。 • 美联储降息及美国国内经济政策对全球资本流动性造成干扰。美元走强和 美债收益率上升给非美资产带来调整压力，但估值优势吸引外资流入 A 股和港股。 • 当前投资机会：中小市值股票前期占优，但优势减弱；红利策略板块抗跌 性强；债券和理财产品吸引避险资金；关注中央经济工作会议和明年两会 政策。 • 年底市场趋势：化债政策落地、业绩修正和估值切换将支撑蓝筹股；电子、 化工、机械设备、商贸零售等板块可能表现较好；高股息高分红资产仍具 吸引力。 • 科技成长板块：市场风格和风险偏好改善将利好科技成长板块，但政策真 空期和流动性压力可能带来调整。建议均衡分散配置，关注数据要素、低 空经济和自主可控领域。 • ...

特朗普归来，人民币会"跌跌不休"吗？20241125 摘要 • 美元指数近期强势，主要受地缘政治风险（俄乌冲突）和美联储降息预期 降温影响，避险情绪推动美元上涨，美国就业市场数据稳定也支撑了美元。 • 欧元区经济表现疲软，制造业和服务业 PMI 数据均显示经济活动减缓，就 业岗位减少，叠加高利率和俄乌冲突影响，对欧元构成压力。 • 美欧经济对比下，美国服务业表现相对强劲，支撑美元指数。但长期来看， 全球制造业产能过剩问题对大宗商品需求构成压力，建议维持看空大宗商 品策略。 • 特朗普新内阁成员偏鹰派，对华强硬，且专业性存疑，可能增加市场不确 定性，尤其在货币政策和国际关系方面，或对美元走势产生影响。 • 美元指数转弱可能依赖于：俄乌冲突缓和、日本央行大幅加息、特朗普干 预美联储政策或外汇市场、以及美国经济表现低于预期等关键事件。 • 短期内美元指数预计仍将保持强势，但已接近相对顶部；美元兑人民币即 期汇率预计短期内保持相对稳定，不会出现大幅波动，前提是中国经济不 发生系统性风险。 Q&A 如何看待美元接下来的走势？ 从上周的外汇市场表现来看，人民币汇率三大指数呈现上涨状态，但在岸人民币 和离岸人民币相较于美元 ...

氟化铝、电解铝 20241125 摘要 • 2024 年电解铝价格呈现 M 型走势，年初低位，年中受政策及国际局势影 响达到高点 21,627 元/吨，年末回落至 19,827.93 元/吨，同比上涨 1,145.53 元/吨。 • 中国电解铝企业布局转向内蒙古、新疆等地区，以降低生产成本，行业竞 争产能达 4,781.9 万吨，但云南地区水电供应影响产能释放。 • 2024 年中国原铝产量预计达 4,310 万吨，同比增长约 3.45%，开工率达 91.46%高点后略有回落，受氧化铝成本上升影响。 • 中国政府鼓励提高液态金属直接合金化率，但社会库存未能保持在预期低 位，截至 11 月 21 日为 55.2 万吨。俄罗斯铝锭进口占比减少。 • 电解镁出口受国际关税及国内政策影响减少，预计年底出口量约 11 万吨。 电解铜终端消费受房地产影响，但新能源汽车和光伏领域拉动消费增长。 • 预计 2025 年电解铝供需或将从供大于求转变为供不应求，但消费增速放 缓。电解铝企业利润表现分化，部分企业因成本上升而亏损。 • 氟化铝市场价格上涨，但整体行情低迷，产能利用率低，新疆新增产能对 市场影响有限，电解铝需求增长有 ...

Summary of Conference Call on A-Share Market Outlook Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the A-share market in China, particularly the trends and investment opportunities expected from late 2024 to early 2025 [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to show a trend of oscillation upwards by the end of 2024 and early 2025, driven by favorable policies and attractive valuations [2][3]. 2. **Government Policies**: The government is implementing a dual strategy of increasing leverage (e.g., issuing consumption vouchers) and reducing leverage (e.g., lowering existing mortgage rates) to address economic pressures and boost demand [2][4]. 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The CSI A500 index and related ETF products are highlighted as having low valuations (PETTM around 14 times), presenting opportunities for investors to tap into the growth potential of the Chinese stock market [2][5]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: The market is shifting from being retail-driven to being institutionally driven, with policy effects expected to be validated around the Spring Festival [2][3][4]. 5. **Investment Themes**: Key investment themes include high-dividend assets from central state-owned enterprises and assets related to "new intelligent productivity" (e.g., semiconductors), which are less affected by economic cycles [2][8]. 6. **Policy Focus**: Future policies will likely emphasize the pace of monetary easing, the central government's ability to increase leverage, and measures to stimulate domestic demand in response to potential export pressures and changes in U.S. policies [2][10]. 7. **Market Sentiment**: Following a significant rise in the market, investor sentiment has returned to rationality, leading to a phase of consolidation with high trading volumes maintained [3][4][6]. 8. **A500 Index Performance**: The CSI A500 index has shown strong performance, rising approximately 33% from September 24 to October 8, 2023, and continues to attract investor interest despite entering a stabilization phase [5][9]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Impact of U.S. Elections**: The upcoming U.S. elections and potential policy changes may introduce uncertainties in global asset markets, including the A-share market [11][12]. 2. **Emerging Industries**: The development of emerging industries, particularly in semiconductors, is crucial for enhancing competitiveness and responding to international pressures [12][13]. 3. **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to focus on assets that are less sensitive to economic cycles, such as public utilities and new productivity-related assets, to navigate the current environment of insufficient effective demand [15][16]. 4. **Core Assets and Growth Balance**: The CSI 500 index is suggested as a balanced investment option that combines core assets with high-growth potential, suitable for both conservative and aggressive investors [17][24][25]. 5. **Long-term Performance**: The CSI 500 index has outperformed the CSI 300 index with an excess return of about 80% since the end of 2004, indicating strong long-term investment potential [22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed in the conference call regarding the A-share market and its future outlook.

我们会对风电行业的一些环节呢去做一些详细的这个阐述和分析那在开始之前呢先简单讲一下就是我们电信板块当前的观点吧啊当前呢就是我们感觉下来呢就是铝电和风电呢就是排序呢更靠前一点啊铝电这边呢就是说 他确实最近的因为是需求旺季还有些工具错配所以看到了就是有一些环节呢其实是在涨价的啊虽然虽然是说涨完了之后啊他可能有些环节呢还在亏钱啊但是跟过去状态可能就会有一些这个差异所以我们的理电呢应该是蛮强的而且理电里面很多投资公司啊确实他们都已经走出来了尽管在全行业的这个加盟率不高的情况下投资企业的加盟率呢可能都已经到90甚至有到超产的阶段所以我们说理电很强 然后当然理电周末也有些信息包括欧洲取消电动车单车关税这个主要针对3.5万欧元以上的然后另外就是市场在反映略负偿价主要有这样一些信息那回到封面封面之前就是大家的关注度没有那么高但是在上周录影过程中跟客户交流下来就是大家的关注度也开始慢慢往上来走一个方面就是市场本身确实有轮动的需求另外一方面就是封面的基本面确实还是有很大的变化 海峰呢大家就是一直在关注什么时间起点开工关注这个东西比较多那么海峰的标的呢就是看起来就是对应一定的估值算合理但是海峰本身的时间轴是比较长的从开发到后续的推 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the AI supply chain, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing and cloud business growth, suggesting a favorable investment environment for the sector. Core Insights - The AI supply chain is experiencing strong growth, driven by semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan and cloud computing services from major players like AWS, Google, Microsoft, and BAT, with hyper-scale cloud businesses showing mid-teens to mid-20s growth rates [1][3] - Despite increased capital expenditures (CapEx), hyper-scalers maintain high free cash flow, exceeding 50% of operating cash flow, with healthy growth projected through 2026 [1][3][6] - AI applications are expanding beyond foundational models to include coding efficiency, customer service, sales and marketing, manufacturing optimization, and content delivery, enhancing operational efficiency and revenue generation [1][4][5] Summary by Sections AI Supply Chain and Cloud Business - The outlook for the AI supply chain remains positive, with significant contributions from semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan and key players like Nvidia and AMD involved in AI ASICs production [2][3] - Hyper-scale cloud businesses are experiencing re-accelerated growth rates, with Amazon noting that its AI business is growing at three times the rate of its original cloud business a decade ago [3] Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - Increased CapEx among tech companies reflects their investment in advancing technologies like AI, with hyper-scale CapEx showing over 80% year-over-year growth but expected to moderate while maintaining healthy levels through 2025 [6][19] - Companies remain financially robust due to strong free cash flow generation capabilities, with over half of operating cash flows converting into free cash flow [6] Future Use Cases of AI - Future use cases of AI are rapidly expanding, with significant advancements anticipated in coding efficiency, customer service, sales and marketing, manufacturing, and content delivery [4][5] - The integration of AI features in smartphones and PCs is expected to enhance capabilities significantly, with a notable shift towards higher-budget devices [9][10] Geopolitical Risks and Market Dynamics - Potential impacts of a Trump administration on the AI supply chain include risks of a trade war and tighter technology export controls, which could hinder advanced technology development [7][8] - Geopolitical risks such as trade war escalations and retaliatory measures could significantly impact tech markets, particularly in the context of ongoing global tensions [15] Data Center Demands and Technologies - AI-driven data centers require higher power density and scalability compared to traditional cloud computing centers, necessitating new construction to meet advanced requirements [20] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential for modern data centers due to its efficiency at higher power densities, with policies pushing for adoption [21][23] - Green energy sources are pivotal for future data center developments, particularly in regions with renewable energy capacities [22]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 22 November 2024 | 12:54PM GMT | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

-NOV- byercr\home\Desktop\BCB_0-SA_MAIN\BCB_2020 20\REPOST-USKickstart\Kickstart2020-11- 20T22_44_20Z2020-11-20T23_19_23Z.pptx 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 22 November 2024 | 5:20PM EST US Weekly Kickstart Hedge funds and mutual funds maintained overweights in cyclicals sectors ahead of post-election rotation This week we published our Hedge Fund Trend Monitor and Mutual Fundamentals reports, which analyzed $6.9 trillion of equity positions at the start of 4Q 2024. Fundamental equity hedge funds are on trac ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Flash | 22 Nov 2024 02:27:12 ET │ 10 pages China Materials 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #140 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency onground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we discuss weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the we ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Emerging Markets** outlook for 2025, discussing various asset classes including **Equities**, **Rates**, and **FX** [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Domestic Reliance Amid External Risks**: The speakers emphasized that emerging markets are increasingly relying on domestic factors while facing external risks, which could impact their equity strategies for 2025 [2][3]. - **Global and Domestic Influences**: The discussion highlighted the importance of both global and domestic factors in shaping the outlook for emerging markets, suggesting that investors should consider these influences when making investment decisions [2][3]. - **Top Trades**: The speakers shared their top trades within each asset class, indicating specific strategies that could be beneficial in the current market environment [2][3]. Additional Important Content - **Analyst Team**: The call featured insights from a team of analysts including Kamakshya Trivedi (Head of Global FX, Rates, and EM Strategy), Sunil Koul (EM Equity Strategist), Tadas Gedminas (EM Rates Strategist), and Teresa Alves (EM FX Strategist) [2][3]. - **Research Context**: The conference was part of Goldman Sachs' broader research efforts, which include various macro outlooks and sector-specific analyses, indicating a comprehensive approach to investment research [4][5]. - **Potential Conflicts of Interest**: The analysts noted that Goldman Sachs may have business relationships with companies covered in their research, which could affect the objectivity of their reports [3][9]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the emerging markets' outlook and the strategic considerations for investors.