Investment Rating - The report indicates that enhancing data transparency can lead to increased sovereign bond returns, particularly in countries with medium to higher levels of institutional quality [3][10][25]. Core Insights - Improved data transparency can mitigate the negative impact of high debt levels on bond returns, suggesting that even highly indebted countries can attract global investors through enhanced transparency [3][10][25]. - The study identifies a threshold effect, indicating that countries need to achieve a certain level of institutional quality (ICRG score greater than 4.15) for international creditors to benefit from improved data transparency [3][10][25]. - The empirical analysis demonstrates that both creditors and debtors can benefit from increased data transparency, with significant implications for investment decisions in sovereign bonds [34][35]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report explores the relationship between data transparency and sovereign bond returns, focusing on the benefits for global investors rather than just sovereign borrowers [7][8]. Estimation Technique and Data - The study employs Fixed Effect Instrumental Variables (FE-IV) for panel data analysis to estimate the impact of data transparency on sovereign bond returns, controlling for various macroeconomic and financial factors [12][14][18]. Empirical Analysis - The findings reveal that enhancing data transparency leads to higher bond returns in countries with medium to higher levels of institutional quality, while high levels of public debt generally correlate with lower bond returns [25][26][30]. - The analysis shows that improving data transparency can still attract investors even in highly leveraged countries, thus increasing bond returns [27][30]. Calculating Creditors' Benefits - The report quantifies the potential gains for international creditors from improving data transparency in borrowing countries, estimating significant increases in bond returns across various regions [32][63]. Conclusion - The study concludes that greater data transparency enhances sovereign bond returns, particularly in countries with adequate institutional quality, and highlights the mutual benefits for both creditors and debtors [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing complexity of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) in low-income countries, predicting that by 2030, over half of the world's extreme poor will reside in such contexts [2][7] - Adaptive social protection (ASP) programs have shown positive impacts on poverty and vulnerability, but their effectiveness in FCV settings is less documented [3][8] - The study conducted by the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program (SASPP) involved nearly 400 qualitative interviews with beneficiaries in Burkina Faso and Cameroon to understand the impacts of ASP in FCV environments [10][11] Summary by Sections Key Recommendations - Longer-term and greater support should be provided for households facing significant conflict and insecurity, as beneficiaries often prioritize immediate needs over long-term investments due to security concerns [15][17] - Programs should incorporate flexibility in objectives to adapt to changing security environments, recognizing that insecurity varies across regions [19][21] - Designing programs to strengthen social cohesion is crucial, as beneficiaries reported forming new relationships and sharing resources, which can act as informal social insurance [24][25] - Strengthening communication is essential to boost trust in government and reinforce the social contract, as awareness of government involvement in ASP programs positively influences beneficiaries' attitudes [27][28] Channels of Impact - The study identified three key channels through which ASP programs impact individuals and communities: material, social, and political [13] - Material channel: Redistribution of resources improves economic wellbeing and resilience to shocks [13] - Social channel: Programs foster new relationships and community participation, acting as social insurance mechanisms [13] - Political channel: Resource allocation enhances trust in government and strengthens the social contract [13] Operational Recommendations - Providing longer-term support is necessary in FCV settings to address the limited access to markets and income-generating activities [17][18] - Programs should adapt to the specific contexts of insecurity, prioritizing safeguarding consumption and human capital over long-term productivity goals [21][22] - Communication strategies must be robust to manage perceptions and grievances among non-beneficiaries, ensuring transparency in program targeting [26][32]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growing disparities in income and access to resources in Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting that these inequalities impede sustainable development and social justice [40][41][45]. - It discusses the urgent need for innovative policies to address these inequalities, particularly in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the challenges posed by recent global crises [41][43][46]. - The report advocates for a focus on pre-distribution mechanisms that address the root causes of inequality, such as education and labor market reforms [44][46]. Summary by Sections Part 1: State of Play - The overview of inequalities in Africa reveals significant disparities in income distribution, with a focus on the unique challenges faced in measuring inequality in the region [31][32]. - The section on measurement discusses the availability of data and the challenges in assessing multidimensional inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa [31][32]. Part 2: Analyzing and Tackling Multidimensional Inequalities - The report analyzes inequalities in education and health, noting that disparities in these areas are closely linked to labor market outcomes [32][33]. - Labor market inequalities are examined, highlighting issues such as employment outcomes, informality, and the marginalization of specific groups [32][33]. - Gender inequalities are addressed, focusing on disparities in education, health, labor markets, and access to resources [32][33]. - The section on spatial inequality discusses how geographic factors contribute to multidimensional inequalities across the region [32][33]. - Migration patterns and their relationship to inequality are explored, emphasizing the complex dynamics at play [32][33]. - The persistence of inequality and social mobility is analyzed, with a focus on intergenerational and intragenerational mobility [32][33]. - Policies to tackle inequality are discussed, including both traditional and innovative approaches to address the issue [32][33]. Part 3: Pushing the Knowledge Frontier and Policy Actions - The impact of climate change on poverty and inequality is examined, highlighting the need for targeted interventions [34]. - The relationship between sustainability and economic growth is analyzed, with a focus on why growth has not been inclusive in the region [34].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the higher education sector in Azerbaijan. Core Insights - Azerbaijan prioritizes strengthening competitive human capital through enhanced education, aiming for higher education institutions to meet global economic demands [13][14] - Institutional development and state policies are essential for creating a competitive higher education system with quality research outputs [14] - The integration of AI into higher education is seen as a means to enhance competitiveness and improve educational outcomes [16][84] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report emphasizes the need for Azerbaijan to enhance human capital through education, focusing on the competitiveness of higher education institutions [13] - Work-integrated learning programs are highlighted as effective tools for bridging education and the labor market [14] - Concerns are raised about the quality of research outputs despite increased publication numbers, indicating a potential decline in research standards [15] Higher Education System of Azerbaijan - The higher education system consists of 52 institutions, with a majority being public universities located in Baku [24][25] - The system reflects a blend of Soviet heritage and European practices, having adopted the Bologna Process for standardization [22][23] Higher Education Student Population - In the 2022-2023 academic year, 222,809 students were enrolled in higher education, with a notable increase in master's degree enrollments [29][30] - Despite growth, Azerbaijan's tertiary education enrollment rates remain lower compared to similar countries [30] Governance of Higher Education and Research - The Ministry of Science and Education regulates the higher education system, with ongoing discussions about a new Law on Higher Education [33][34] - A significant shift in governance occurred in 2022, transferring research institutes from the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences to the Ministry of Science and Education [35] Funding of Higher Education & Research - Research funding has increased since 2005, but its proportion of GDP and public expenditure has declined, indicating chronic underfunding [38][40] - HEIs receive about 10% of the national annual research and development budget, limiting their research capabilities [41] Quality Assurance & Educational Programs in Higher Education - The quality assurance system is aligned with European standards, but state approval limits institutional autonomy in program development [44][46] - Continuous monitoring and periodic reviews are mandated to ensure quality, but greater autonomy is recommended for institutions [48] Alignment of Higher Education, Skills & the Labour Market - Graduate unemployment is a significant issue, with a mismatch between university training and labor market needs [50][51] - The report highlights the importance of aligning curricula with industry requirements to enhance graduate employability [17][63] Institutional Development for Increased Research & Technology Integration - Research incentives are in place, but the effectiveness of these incentives is questioned due to low research productivity and quality [72][79] - The integration of AI into education is seen as crucial for enhancing teaching and learning experiences [84][116] Recommendations - The report suggests establishing advisory boards to align higher education with labor market needs and integrating career development into curricula [92][94] - A National Graduate Survey is recommended to gather reliable data on graduates' employment outcomes [97][99] - Strengthening career centers and integrating career training into university curricula are emphasized as essential for improving student employability [100][101]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or project Core Insights - The Sint Maarten Airport Terminal Reconstruction Project aims to restore passenger capacity to pre-hurricane levels while improving resilience, with a total funding of USD 142 million [16][17] - The project is significant not only for infrastructure repair but also for national pride and economic recovery, as it serves as a major hub for the Eastern Caribbean [21][22] Overview of the Sint Maarten Airport Terminal Reconstruction Project - The project was initiated following extensive damage from Hurricane Irma and Hurricane María in 2017, which severely impacted the airport's infrastructure [15] - The project was approved by the World Bank in September 2019, with the goal of restoring operational capacity and resilience [16] Highlights of PJIAE's Stakeholder Engagement Efforts - Comprehensive stakeholder mapping was conducted to ensure all impacted groups were informed about the project's progress [23] - Multiple outreach channels were utilized for consistent engagement, including online surveys, social media, and community meetings [30][35] Challenges - The project faced challenges in managing stakeholder expectations and ensuring effective communication regarding project timelines and complexities [39][40] - Ongoing airport operations during reconstruction required careful coordination to minimize disruptions [38] Emerging Lessons to Engage with a Diverse Stakeholder Matrix - Stakeholder suggestions were integrated into project design and implementation, demonstrating the importance of community feedback [51][52] - Innovative communication strategies, such as the "Restoring a Princess" video series, were developed to enhance public understanding of the project [62] Conclusion - The project exemplifies the importance of stakeholder engagement in large-scale infrastructure projects, highlighting the need for clear communication and responsiveness to community needs [46][70]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the health sector in Pakistan Core Insights - The Government of Pakistan has prioritized Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and primary health care access as central goals in its health policy agenda, as outlined in the National Health Vision 2016–2025 [3] - The implementation of the Essential Package of Health Services (EPHS) and the Sehat Sahulat Program (SSP) are significant initiatives aimed at expanding health coverage and improving public health financing efficiency [4][5] - Despite recent increases in public health expenditures, Pakistan's per capita health spending remains low compared to regional averages, indicating a need for further investment and reform [7][40] Summary by Sections Health Financing and UHC - The report emphasizes the need for financing reforms to support the expansion of provincial social health insurance programs and district-level EPHS packages [5] - Current per capita public health expenditures in Pakistan are approximately US$14, significantly below the estimated US$28 needed to finance a comprehensive EPHS [40] Public Health Expenditures - Per capita public health spending varies across provinces, with Sindh at US$10.0, Punjab at US$10.3, Balochistan at US$8.7, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at US$7.8 [7] - The South Asia Region average for per capita public health expenditures was US$17.5 in 2017, highlighting that no province in Pakistan meets this benchmark [7] Efficiency and Resource Allocation - The report identifies a historical trend of stagnant public health financing growth, which has recently shifted, with real per capita public health expenditures increasing by approximately PKR 1,000 between FY2011 and FY2018 [8] - There is a significant disparity in health outcomes across provinces, suggesting opportunities for efficiency improvements in health financing [15][16] Health Equity and Out-of-Pocket Expenditures - Out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures account for 60% of current health expenditures in Pakistan, with rates varying by province, indicating a critical equity concern [33][34] - The cost of medicines and vaccines is identified as the primary driver of OOP expenditures, necessitating targeted health financing interventions [37] Recommendations for Improvement - The report recommends increasing the share of health expenditures allocated to primary health care (PHC) and implementing the EPHS to improve health financing efficiency [22][45] - It suggests conducting feasibility studies on health taxes and soft earmarking to enhance funding for health initiatives [42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Income security for older adults is a significant concern globally, with various sources contributing to their financial stability, including continued work, family support, accumulated assets, and government benefits [5][12] - In emerging economies, the rapid aging of the population raises concerns about the preparedness of older adults to achieve income security, necessitating a stronger role for the state in promoting financial security [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for innovative solutions to expand pension coverage and improve income security for older adults, particularly in developing countries [51][65] Summary by Sections Understanding Income Security for Older Adults - The report discusses the importance of various income sources for older adults, highlighting that family support, continued work, and government benefits are crucial for financial security [5][12] - It notes that the adequacy of these income sources varies significantly across different regions and levels of development [5][12] Income Sources for Older Adults across Regions - The report identifies four main income sources for older adults: family support, continued work, income from accumulated assets, and government benefits [12][19] - It highlights that living arrangements and access to services significantly impact income security [12] Role of Contributory and Non-Contributory Pensions in Old Age Financial Protection - The report outlines the differences in pension systems between high-income and developing countries, noting that many older adults in developing countries lack adequate pension coverage [19][30] - It discusses the challenges of contributory pension systems, particularly in informal labor markets, and the rise of social pensions as a response [30][34] Contributory Coverage Expansion Challenges, Promise of Voluntary Schemes, and Growth of Non-Contributory Pension Benefits - The report highlights the low coverage of pension systems in low- and middle-income countries, emphasizing the need for innovative informal sector schemes [43][48] - It discusses the importance of expanding savings and encouraging older workers to remain in the labor force to improve income security [51][52] What the World Bank is Doing on Income Security for Older Adults - The World Bank supports income security for older adults through various lending and non-lending instruments, focusing on pension reforms and social assistance [55][57] - The report details the World Bank's efforts to improve pension administration and promote financial inclusion [57][61] Learning from World Bank Engagements on Income Security in Old Age and Looking Ahead - The report outlines key lessons for future work, including the need for rethinking pension design, promoting data transparency, and harnessing digital transactions for pension administration [65][66] - It emphasizes the importance of a holistic view on income security that includes financial literacy and the interaction between public and private transfers [71][72]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP growth has moderated to 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to subdued domestic demand and a contracting property sector, which saw real estate investment decline by 11.5% year-on-year from July to November [25][62] - Incremental policy stimulus has been introduced to support growth, including a RMB 300 billion consumer trade-in scheme and a RMB 10 trillion program to swap local government off-budget debt for lower-cost on-budget financing [26][111] - The property sector remains a significant drag on economic activity, with new home sales in the primary market declining by 51.5% in value compared to peak levels in July 2021 [92] - Despite challenges, manufacturing investment grew by 9.6% year-on-year, supported by robust external demand and policy incentives [63] Summary by Sections I. Recent Economic Developments - Growth momentum has slowed under domestic demand constraints, with GDP growth decelerating from 5.3% in Q1 to 4.6% in Q3 2024 [62] - The property sector's adjustment continues to impact investment negatively, while net exports have provided some support to growth [62] - Retail sales growth has weakened, reflecting low consumer confidence, with retail sales growing only 2.8% year-on-year in July-November [63] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investments have remained robust, partially offsetting the contraction in real estate investment [63] II. Outlook, Risks, and Policy Implications - GDP growth is projected at 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with policy support expected to provide a modest boost to housing demand [28][133] - Weak domestic demand is anticipated to keep consumer price inflation low at 0.4% in 2024, rising to 1.1% in 2025 [29][133] - The outlook is subject to risks, including a potential persistent downturn in the property sector and global trade uncertainties [30] III. Special Focus: Economic Mobility and China's Emerging Middle Class - The secure middle class in China has expanded significantly, from 9.8% to 32.1% of the population between 2010 and 2021 [34] - Despite progress, 17% of the population remains low-income, and 38.2% are in the vulnerable middle class, indicating ongoing economic vulnerabilities [35] - Education plays a crucial role in upward mobility, with higher education correlating with better economic outcomes [178]

JANUARY 2 0 2 5 VIETNAM MACRO MONITORING Photo credit: Shutterstock WHAT'S NEW? Public Disclosure Authorized • The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased in December as businesses ramped up production to meet year-end consumer demand. However, manufacturing sales prospects face some uncertainty as the PMI entered contractionary territory, falling from 50.8 in November to 49.8 in December as new orders growth slowed. • Exports picked up in December in response to the western holiday season and some f ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a gradual economic growth in Thailand, supported by strong external demand and a slight recovery in private consumption, suggesting a positive outlook for the economy [1][2]. Core Insights - Economic activity in November showed gradual expansion, driven by solid goods exports and improving tourism, with private consumption also seeing a slight uptick due to fiscal stimulus measures [1][2]. - Manufacturing production contracted by 3.6 percent, primarily due to a significant decline in the automotive sector, which faced challenges from tighter credit and price competition in electric vehicles [2][3]. - Goods exports grew by 9.6 percent year-on-year in November, although this was a decrease from the previous month's 14.2 percent growth, with strong performance in electronics and agricultural exports [3]. - Tourism remained a crucial growth driver, with a 4.3 percent increase in tourist arrivals in December, reaching 86 percent of pre-pandemic levels [4][14]. - Inflation rose slightly to 1.0 percent year-on-year in November, remaining below the central bank's target, driven by core inflation and energy prices [15][20]. - The Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate at 2.25 percent, anticipating continued economic expansion despite external challenges [16][27]. Summary by Sections Economic Activity - November economic data indicates gradual growth, with strong external demand and a slight recovery in private consumption supported by fiscal measures [1][2]. - Manufacturing production saw a notable contraction of 3.6 percent, the deepest decline in eight months, largely due to the automotive sector [2]. Exports and Tourism - Goods exports expanded by 9.6 percent year-on-year in November, with notable growth in electronics and agricultural exports, while automotive exports declined [3]. - Tourist arrivals increased by 4.3 percent year-on-year in December, contributing significantly to economic growth [4][14]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Headline inflation rose to 1.0 percent year-on-year in November, remaining the lowest among ASEAN countries [15][20]. - The Bank of Thailand held the policy rate steady at 2.25 percent, projecting continued economic growth despite external pressures [16][27]. Government Initiatives - The Thai government introduced a debt relief initiative aimed at alleviating household debt pressures, targeting vulnerable groups with various support measures [17]. - Plans for future economic relief and structural reforms were outlined, focusing on community empowerment and sustainable development [26].