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在LSMS面板测量中的应用:从纵向研究中提高调查估计的质量
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-14 07:53
Longitudinal Survey Challenges - Longitudinal surveys face challenges in maintaining accuracy over time due to sample attrition, migration, and sample fatigue, which introduce measurement errors[2] - Sample attrition, caused by deaths and relocations, along with the impact of new populations and migration flows, leads to underrepresentation in surveys[2] - Correct panel survey design and implementation require methods to address these issues at different stages: sampling design, data collection, and estimation[7] Proposed Methodology - The study proposes a weighted sharing method-based estimator that provides more accurate individual-level statistics compared to current estimators used in Uganda's national panel survey[2] - The proposed method shows higher stability when changing samples, particularly in cross-sectional estimates based on transition matrices[2] - The methodology focuses on improving survey quality by addressing sampling design, data collection, and estimation stages[8] Empirical Application - The methodology was experimentally evaluated using data from Uganda's national panel survey and the Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS)[2] - The study applied the proposed methodology to LSMS-ISA data, using Uganda's national panel survey waves from 2009, 2013, and 2015 as a case study[10] - The empirical evaluation demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method in improving the quality of survey estimates[10] Data Collection and Tracking - Data collection improvements include flexible methods like phone interviews to reach non-responsive populations and minimal variable data collection for attritors[7] - Tracking rules are defined to balance the cost of tracking migrants with the potential bias introduced by their exclusion from the sample[29] - Proxy interviews and minimal variable sets are used to collect data from non-respondents and migrants, reducing sample attrition bias[53] LSMS-ISA Survey Overview - LSMS-ISA surveys are nationally representative longitudinal household surveys focusing on the relationship between living standards and agriculture[58] - The surveys track households and individuals over time, incorporating new members like immigrants and newborns to maintain representativeness[61] - Tracking methods vary across LSMS-ISA surveys, with some focusing on households and others on individuals, impacting representativeness and cost[63] Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) Case Study - The UNPS is a multi-purpose household panel survey in Uganda, providing data on income dynamics, consumption, and agriculture[71] - The study used UNPS data from 2009/10, 2013/14, and 2015/16 waves, with final datasets including 18,313, 17,377, and 15,905 individuals respectively[72] - The empirical evaluation of UNPS data showed that 45% of individuals from the 2009/10 wave were re-interviewed in 2013/14, with 30% of the sample being new individuals[73]
通过需求保护野生动物减少和供应替代方案
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-14 07:09
Group 1: Demand-Side Experiment Findings - The probability of ordering wild meat in the treatment group decreased by 31% compared to the control group (3.1% vs. 4.5%) [63] - 59% of participants in both groups used the provided coupons, indicating no significant difference in coupon usage [64] - The treatment video aimed at reducing wild meat consumption did not show statistically significant effects, potentially due to social desirability bias [63] Group 2: Supply-Side Experiment Insights - A 1% decrease in the price of Moambe Chicken is associated with a 0.91% reduction in total wild meat sales, although this relationship is not statistically significant [3] - The supply-side intervention suggests that making alternative protein sources more affordable could help reduce wild meat consumption [44] - The study involved 68 restaurant days, with 11 days featuring a price reduction for Moambe Chicken, allowing for comparative analysis of sales [46] Group 3: Context and Implications - Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has approximately 3,000 wild meat restaurants, selling around 12,540 kg of wild meat annually [12] - The research highlights the need for culturally sensitive interventions that align with local values to effectively reduce wild meat consumption [15] - The findings contribute to understanding how economic incentives and cultural values can be integrated to promote sustainable behaviors in wildlife conservation [15]
巴基斯坦贫困地图20192020(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-13 06:55
Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Views - The report focuses on estimating poverty levels across 126 districts in Pakistan using a small area estimation (SAE) methodology, which combines data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2018-19 and the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) 2019-20 [3][7][8] - The SAE methodology used in this report differs from standard implementations by using a household survey (PSLM) as the target dataset instead of census data, which provides additional information for modeling but introduces additional uncertainty due to sampling [9][10] - The report highlights significant spatial disparities in poverty rates across districts, with the highest poverty rates found in Sindh and Balochistan provinces, while the lowest rates are concentrated in urban areas such as Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) [75][76] Methodology - The SAE methodology employed in the report uses the Census Empirical Best (EB) estimator, which is an advanced version of the ELL method, to estimate poverty rates at the district level [14][15][16] - The methodology involves fitting a linear model to predict welfare (consumption) based on household characteristics and then using this model to estimate consumption in the target dataset (PSLM) [17][18][19] - The report uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach to generate multiple welfare vectors and calculate poverty rates, with adjustments made to account for measurement errors in household size [20][21][22] Data Sources - The primary data sources for the report are the HIES 2018-19 and PSLM 2019-20 surveys, which provide detailed consumption and household characteristic data at the provincial and district levels, respectively [24][27][28] - The HIES 2018-19 survey covers 24,809 households across Pakistan, while the PSLM 2019-20 survey includes 170,246 households, allowing for more precise district-level poverty estimates [27][28] - The report notes that the PSLM 2019-20 survey was conducted using Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) technology for the first time, which improved data collection efficiency [30] Key Findings - The report identifies significant spatial disparities in poverty rates across Pakistan, with the highest poverty rates in Sindh and Balochistan provinces and the lowest rates in urban areas such as Karachi, Lahore, and ICT [75][76] - The poverty gap analysis shows that in 69 districts, a relatively small increase in welfare could significantly reduce poverty, as the poverty gap (FGT1) is less than 5% [80][81] - The report also highlights the spatial clustering of poverty, with high-poverty clusters in southern KP and northern Balochistan and low-poverty clusters in the fertile plains of Punjab [87][88] Provincial Results - In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), the poverty map includes former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Frontier Regions (FR) for the first time, with South Waziristan, Mohmand, and Tank districts showing the highest poverty rates [95][96] - Punjab has the lowest poverty rates among the provinces, with the highest poverty rates concentrated in the southwestern districts of Rajanpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rahim Yar Khan, and Muzaffargarh [97][98] - Sindh has the highest poverty rates in its southern districts, particularly Tharparkar, which has a poverty rate of 76.9% and a high poverty gap of 19% [99][101] - Balochistan exhibits the highest variability in poverty rates and gaps, with districts like Kech, Zhob, and Sheikh Saedullah (Surab) having both high poverty rates and large poverty gaps [102][103]
水数据革命:缩小非洲跨界水资源的数据差距(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-13 06:55
Industry Overview - The report focuses on the water data revolution in Africa, particularly addressing the data gaps in transboundary water management [1][2] - Africa's water resources are under increasing pressure due to population growth, economic expansion, and climate change, with 90% of water resources located in 63 international river basins [17][18] - Outdated data systems and limited hydrological monitoring networks hinder effective water resource management, especially in transboundary contexts [19][20] Core Objectives of the Water Data Revolution (WDR) - The WDR aims to enhance regional institutional capacity and improve transboundary water management in Africa through the application of remote sensing (RS) data platforms [31] - The initiative seeks to fill critical data gaps by leveraging advanced technologies like RS, providing scalable and cost-effective solutions for monitoring water resources in remote areas [31] - The project focuses on reducing the cost and complexity of water data collection and analysis, making data accessible to decision-makers and promoting data-driven approaches in sustainable water management [31] Strategic Pillars of the WDR Pillar A: End-User Assessment and Needs Identification - Pillar A assesses the data needs and capabilities of African River Basin Organizations (RBOs), identifying gaps in data collection, technical capacity, and data-sharing practices [34] - The assessment highlights the need for training in RS data, data products, and analytical tools, with a focus on affordability and effectiveness [41] - Key areas of interest for RBOs include water accounting, drought monitoring, and flood management, with water accounting being particularly critical for transboundary decision-making [42][43] Pillar B: Initial Workshops and Capacity Building - Pillar B focuses on enhancing the accessibility and usability of RS data through targeted online training and workshops [36] - Workshops cover topics such as data collection techniques, cloud-based platforms, and interactive dashboards, with tools like Google Earth Engine and Hydrosheds being key components [51] - The capacity-building efforts aim to equip RBOs with the skills needed for sustainable, data-driven water management, with a focus on practical applications like water allocation and resource planning [36][52] Pillar C: Adapting Innovative Tools for Water Resource Management (WRM) - Pillar C pilots customized, low-cost RS data solutions with selected RBOs, focusing on real-time monitoring through Water Accounting (WA) dashboards [37] - The WA dashboards provide detailed multi-year water accounts, offering insights into water balance components, usage patterns, and climate change impacts [78] - The dashboards are developed using Tableau Desktop, leveraging satellite imagery and RS data to provide interactive and visually appealing data visualizations [79][80] Key Achievements and Strategic Insights - The WDR has made significant progress in addressing data gaps in transboundary water management through targeted capacity-building initiatives and the development of advanced tools like the WA dashboards [99] - Public domain data and cloud-based analytical tools have enabled RBOs to access and analyze critical water resource data, fostering transparency and collaboration across borders [100][101] - The initiative emphasizes the importance of capacity building and data accessibility, with training programs designed to be scalable and sustainable, ensuring long-term technical competence within RBOs [106] - Water accounting tools have proven to be essential for integrated water resource management, providing a comprehensive framework for assessing water availability, usage, and sustainability [108] Future Directions - Future efforts should focus on tailoring tools and capacity-building programs to the specific needs of individual RBOs, considering the varying levels of technical expertise and data availability [109] - Joint training sessions and shared data practices can enhance regional cooperation, fostering mutual understanding and trust among RBOs and their member states [110] - Addressing the mismatch between the needs of individual member states and the services provided by RBOs will be crucial for ensuring equitable and effective transboundary water management [112]
Understanding the Challenges and Constraints of Bhutanese Youth in Accessing Employment Opportunities
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-09 23:03
Industry Overview - Youth unemployment is a significant global challenge, particularly in Bhutan where nearly half the population is below the age of 30 [1] - The study focuses on understanding the challenges faced by Bhutanese youth, especially women, in accessing employment opportunities [1] - The research highlights the economic benefits of increasing female labor force participation and identifies challenges across different economic sectors [1] Research Methodology - The study employs a qualitative approach, utilizing focus group discussions and key informant interviews across three areas: Thimphu (services), Chukha (industry), and Dagana (agriculture) [4] - Primary and secondary data are used to analyze youth and female unemployment, with a focus on urban and rural issues [4] Key Findings Education and Skills - The education system in Bhutan struggles to equip youth with practical skills needed for the job market, leading to a mismatch between education and employment [5] - There is a notable gender bias in STEM subjects, with fewer females pursuing careers in these fields due to societal expectations [32] - Students with disabilities face significant barriers in accessing education and employment opportunities [46] Female Employment Challenges - Women employees, particularly working mothers, face challenges due to the lack of childcare facilities at workplaces [6] - Women perform 71% of unpaid household and care work, which limits their ability to engage in income-generating activities [35] - Gender pay gaps persist, with females earning less than males in both urban and rural areas [54] Economic Sectors - The agriculture sector employs 49.2% of the labor force but contributes only 20% to GDP, highlighting inefficiencies [18] - The tourism sector, a major contributor to GDP, has been negatively impacted by policy changes such as the increase in the sustainable development fee (SDF) [82] - Technological advancements are reshaping the job market, with many traditional jobs being automated or outsourced [64] Youth Migration - Out-migration of the working-age population, particularly to Australia, is a major concern, with 70% of registered jobseekers seeking overseas employment [70] - This trend could lead to a loss of skilled workers, reduced tax revenues, and underutilization of infrastructure, posing long-term economic challenges [72] Policy Recommendations - Integration of TVET (Technical and Vocational Education and Training) into the mainstream education system to better align skills with market demands [75] - Workplace support for female employees, including childcare services and flexible work arrangements [75] - Addressing social challenges through confidence-building initiatives and mentoring programs to improve youth employability [83] Conclusion - The study provides valuable insights into the complex factors contributing to youth and female unemployment in Bhutan, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to enhance employment opportunities and sustainable development [73][74]
Regional Investment in Viet Nam
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-01-09 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Vietnam aims to achieve upper middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2045, requiring gross capital investments to account for 32-35% of GDP, with government investment at 7.3% of GDP annually to support infrastructure development [14] - Public investment in Vietnam has declined from 8% of GDP in 2011 to 6% in 2022, with chronic under-execution of investment budgets and significant delays and cost overruns in major projects [15][16] - Vietnam's infrastructure quality lags behind regional peers, with low expressway density and high road transport costs, which could impact its attractiveness as an FDI destination [19][20] - The public investment management (PIM) and intergovernmental fiscal (IGF) systems in Vietnam suffer from allocative inefficiencies, lack of coordination, and weak enforcement mechanisms, leading to suboptimal investment outcomes [28][29][30] Public Investment Trends - Vietnam's public investment has been declining, with the share of public investment in GDP falling from 8% in 2011 to 6% in 2022, while the economy remains capital-scarce compared to upper middle-income and high-income countries [24][25] - The central government's share in total government investment has decreased from 40% seven years ago to 20% in 2022, with provinces accounting for 80% of infrastructure investment [16][52] - Vietnam's infrastructure quality ranks 77th globally, behind regional peers like China, India, and Malaysia, with road transport costs being the highest in the region [19][20] Inefficiencies in PIM and IGF Systems - Allocative inefficiencies are evident in strategic infrastructure, with provinces over-investing in low-value projects like industrial parks and provincial ports, while national infrastructure spending has been squeezed [16][30] - There is a lack of investment in environmental protection and climate adaptation, with Vietnam being among the top 10 countries most affected by climate change, yet public investment in disaster protection is only 0.05% of GDP [40][41] - Implementation inefficiencies are significant, with an average delay of 5 years and cost overruns double the original budget for large-scale transport projects [42][45] Systemic Problems in Subnational PIM and IGF Systems - The lack of a conducive intergovernmental fiscal framework has led to fragmented investment decisions, with provinces holding 78-85% of public investment resources, leaving the central government with limited capacity to fund national infrastructure [52][53] - There is no enabling legal framework for vertical and horizontal investment coordination, with the State Budget Law banning the transfer of investment funds between provinces, creating financing gaps for regional projects [59][60] - The absence of effective incentive and enforcement mechanisms has resulted in a race-to-the-bottom competition among provinces, leading to wasteful investments in uneconomic projects [62][63] Recommendations and Next Steps - The report recommends rebalancing infrastructure investment from provincial to central levels, addressing legal loopholes, and establishing robust monitoring mechanisms to improve public investment efficiency [16][75] - It suggests adopting effective instruments for vertical and horizontal coordination, such as co-financing arrangements and matching grants, to enhance regional investment coordination [80][81] - The report also calls for a review of expenditure responsibilities and the establishment of a regional Public Investment Program to align with integrated masterplans and improve investment outcomes [78][79]
专题:经济流动性与中国新兴中产阶层:提振需求,重启动能
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-31 12:39
本报告为世界银行员工的成果。本报告所阐述的任何研究成果、诠释和结论未必反映世界银行、 其执行董事会及其所代表的政府的观点。 任何关于权利和许可的问题,包括各项附属权利,请向世界银行集团出版部门咨询,地址:1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA;传真:202-522-2625;邮箱:pubrights@worldbank.org. 表 2. 主要政策措施及预期影响 缩略语 | --- | --- | |--------|--------------------------| | | | | PFB | 一般公共预算 | | PHL | 菲律宾 | | PIP | 世界银行贫困与不平等网页 | | PPI | 工业生产者出厂价格指数 | | PPP | 购买力平价 | | pp | 百分点 | | Q1 | 第一季度 | | Q2 | 第二季度 | | Q3 | 第三季度 | | Q4 | 第四季度 | | RMB | 人民币 | | RRR | 存款准备金率 | | SAFE | 中国国家外汇管理局 | | SAS | 南亚地区 | | SML | 关注类贷款 | ...
罗马尼亚——25财年至29财年国家伙伴关系框架(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-30 09:05
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The World Bank Group (WBG) aims to support Romania's development priorities, focusing on sustainable growth, resilience, and the green transition, while addressing disparities and enhancing institutional capacity [2] - WBG financing, although modest at approximately 1.4% of Romania's GDP in 2023, has a significant impact by unlocking additional public and private funds [2] - There is a strong demand for WBG's advisory services and financial instruments, particularly in climate finance and private capital mobilization [2][5] Summary by Sections Development Priorities - Romania's long-term goals include addressing disparities, enhancing resilience, and accelerating the green transition, with short to medium-term priorities focused on reforms and investments supported by EU resources [2] - The WBG is viewed as a neutral partner, fostering trust and cooperation to implement sustainable solutions for Romania's challenges [2] Financial Sector Engagement - The International Finance Corporation (IFC) collaborates with major banks to ensure compliance with regulations while promoting climate and inclusion financing [5] - IFC has facilitated significant green and sustainable bond issuances, including a €100 million green bond for Banca Comercială Română and a €100 million blue loan for Banca Transilvania [5] Capacity Building and Institutional Support - The WBG's Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY25-29 emphasizes the importance of strengthening institutions and governance to support Romania's development [6] - The CPF aims to enhance public financial management, strategic planning, and policy coordination to improve service delivery and investment efficiency [13] Private Sector Development - The WBG will promote private investment in infrastructure and connectivity, supporting policy reforms to enhance market access and attract private capital [11] - The focus on digitalization and technology adoption is crucial for improving productivity and competitiveness in Romania's economy [20] Climate and Sustainability Initiatives - The WBG is committed to supporting Romania's transition to a low-carbon economy, emphasizing investments in renewable energy and climate resilience [16][38] - The report highlights the need for substantial public and private investments in decarbonization and the development of innovative financial products to support Romania's climate goals [36][43]
哥伦比亚贫困与公平评估:轨迹哥伦比亚领土的繁荣与减贫(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-30 09:05
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Colombia has made significant strides in reducing poverty, with a decline from 49.7% in 2002 to 28.2% in 2019, although the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp increase in poverty rates [219][220] - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing territorial inequalities and the unequal capacity of the state to provide public services, which affects opportunities for asset accumulation [215][216] - Poverty rates are significantly higher among indigenous populations and other marginalized groups, highlighting systemic disparities in access to resources [321][322] Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Introduction - The report focuses on the disparities in opportunities for different population groups in Colombia, particularly in relation to poverty and asset accumulation [290][291] Chapter 2: A Falling Yet Unequal Poverty Trend - Economic growth in Colombia has been stable but moderate, with a significant reduction in poverty rates prior to the pandemic [304][305] - The pandemic reversed some of the progress made, with a notable increase in poverty and extreme poverty rates [220][221] Chapter 3: Increasing Equity in People's Access to Assets - Access to quality education, health care, and other essential services varies greatly across regions and population groups, contributing to persistent poverty [224][225] - The report highlights the need for targeted policies to improve access to assets and services for marginalized communities [268][270] Chapter 4: The Need to Boost the Dynamics that Can Reduce Spatial Gaps - Internal migration patterns often reflect a search for better opportunities, but many migrants are forced to relocate due to conflict or lack of services [257][258] - The report calls for investments in infrastructure and connectivity to improve access to economic opportunities [258][259] Chapter 5: Charting the Trajectory: a Policy Agenda - The report proposes differentiated, coordinated, and integrated policy approaches to address the unique needs of various regions and groups [260][262] - Specific policy recommendations include improving access to health and education, enhancing local governance, and promoting associative schemes among municipalities [268][276]