大公国际：2024 年四季度国际宏观事件观察——南亚和 东南亚 国际合作部 李冰晖 2024 年 12 月 26 日 2024 年 10 月～12 月，南亚宏观事件主要体现在印度经济增速放缓、孟加拉 国临时政府公布下一届大选时间并放弃以 GDP 增长为核心的发展模式以及斯里 兰卡总统所属党派以显著优势赢得议会大选等，短期需进一步关注印度经济走势 及其货币政策走向、孟加拉国通胀率和失业率的变化情况以及斯里兰卡新一届政 府的政策取向等。东南亚宏观事件主要体现在印度尼西亚新总统宣誓就职并开启 任期、印度尼西亚取消雅加达首都地位、部分国家将成为金砖国家伙伴国以及菲 律宾央行连续降息等，短期需进一步关注印度尼西亚新一任总统普拉博沃的政策 取向、印度尼西亚新首都建设进展以及东南亚各主要国家的货币政策走向等。 南亚 本区域重点在政治、经济和金融领域。政治方面，斯里兰卡决定加入金砖国 家和新开发银行；斯里兰卡举行了新一届议会选举，现任总统所属政党获胜并获 得超过 2/3 的席位数；孟加拉国临时政府公布下一届大选时间，较原计划有所推 迟。经济方面，印度经济增速大幅放缓；孟加拉国临时政府表示放弃以 GDP 增长 为核心的发展模式 ...

Political Developments - Japan's ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives, leading to potential policy challenges for Prime Minister Kishida[2] - South Korea's political instability increased with the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol, raising uncertainties about the country's governance[5] - Tensions on the Korean Peninsula escalated, with military actions and the establishment of a new monitoring mechanism for sanctions against North Korea by South Korea, the US, and Japan[6] Economic Trends - China's economic recovery is supported by a combination of existing and new policies, with significant growth in consumer goods sales and investment in equipment, contributing to a notable increase in economic indicators[9] - Japan announced a substantial economic stimulus package worth 39 trillion yen to combat high inflation and stimulate growth, despite a downward revision of its economic growth forecast to 0.3% by the IMF[10][11] - South Korea's central bank cut interest rates for the first time in four years, reflecting a cautious approach to economic growth and inflation, with revised growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025[19] Financial Market Insights - The issuance of Panda bonds reached 194.8 billion yuan in 2024, a 26% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing attractiveness of RMB-denominated bonds[15] - The Korean won depreciated significantly, with the exchange rate against the US dollar reaching 1,429.50, marking a decline of over 12% since the beginning of the year[16] - Japan's central bank maintained its interest rate at 0.25%, indicating a cautious stance on monetary policy normalization amid economic uncertainties[16] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation rates in Central and Eastern Europe remain sticky, with Poland's November inflation at 4.6% and Hungary's at 3.7%, prompting cautious monetary policy from central banks[23] - The Czech National Bank and other regional banks have signaled a pause in interest rate cuts, reflecting concerns over inflation and currency stability[24]

大公国际：2024 年四季度国际宏观事件观察——欧洲 国际合作部 邢 磊 2024 年 12 月 26 日 2024 年 10 月～12 月，德、法两大欧洲支柱政局动荡，加大了欧洲地区经济 政策路径的不确定性。通胀回落、财政压力上升和经济疲弱的态势决定了欧盟将 加快货币宽松步伐，而英国受通胀反弹影响货币政策更加审慎。此外，受美国关 税威胁和美联储降息预期的波动，欧元、英镑、瑞士法郎等欧洲主要货币兑美元 走弱。2025 年初，需重点关注欧洲内、外政局变化，特别是德国、法国政局震动 情况、各国财政巩固进度以及债务风险波动。 政治方面 1、法国政局动荡，三个月内更换两任总理 法国自 7 月选举后，政局持续动荡，10 月 8 日，法国左翼联盟"新人民阵 线"以新政府任命未能符合议会选举结果为由对新政府发起不信任动议，此次不 信任动议未得到极右翼党派国民联盟的支持，最终投票结果未通过。12 月 2 日， 法国国民议会再次对时任总理巴尼耶发起不信任动议，并投票通过，政府遭受弹 劾下台，时任总理巴尼耶仅在任 91 天而被迫辞职。 12 月 2 日法国国民议会发起的不信任动议由反对派左翼联盟"新人民阵线" 和极右翼国民联盟分 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit quality outlook for the water industry, with a high proportion of issuers rated AA+ and above, suggesting a favorable investment environment [28][40]. Core Insights - The water industry in China is expected to maintain stable development, with policies such as the issuance of special bonds and long-term government bonds driving overall investment growth [9][40]. - The focus for 2025 includes accelerating major water conservancy projects and improving water resource conservation and utilization levels, alongside promoting integrated urban and rural water supply and wastewater treatment [40][49]. - Government subsidies remain a significant source of profit for water enterprises due to limited profit margins in core operations [22][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Policy - In 2024, various policies were introduced to support the construction of the national water network, water conservancy projects, and water-saving initiatives, aiming for high-quality and sustainable development in the water sector [42][59]. - The State Council and relevant departments have emphasized the importance of social capital participation in infrastructure projects, enhancing funding channels for water conservancy construction [43][61]. Industry Development - The overall water supply and usage in China showed a slight decrease in 2023, with improved efficiency and optimized usage structure [51][40]. - The gap in sewage treatment rates between urban and rural areas continues to narrow, indicating progress in wastewater management [9][40]. Profitability - Water enterprises experienced a decline in operating cash flow, with government subsidies playing a crucial role in maintaining profitability [22][40]. - The report anticipates continued revenue growth for the water industry in 2025, driven by infrastructure upgrades and network construction [40][57]. Debt Burden - The short-term debt repayment pressure for water enterprises is manageable, with a significant increase in the scale of outstanding bonds [24][28]. - The bond issuance structure is considered reasonable, with a high proportion of mid-term notes and private placements [25][27]. Credit Quality - The credit quality of the water industry remains stable, with an increasing asset scale and investment in water infrastructure expected to provide further growth opportunities [28][40].

目录 信用风险展望 |煤炭行业 信用风险展望 煤炭行业 | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 行业政策 ...................................................2 | | 供需分析 ...................................................3 | | 价格趋势 ...................................................5 | | 盈利能力 ...................................................7 | | 债务压力 ...................................................8 | | 信用质量 ...................................................8 | 王洋 010-67413430 工商部 分析师 wangyangi@ ...

信用风险展望 |出版传媒行业 从出版传媒行业内发债企业主体信用等级迁移情况来看，2024 年以来，发债企业主体信 用级别整体稳定，无级别调整情况。 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据 的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资 建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行证券投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为大公国际，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|--------|--------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------|-------|----------------------------------------- ...

行业研究 1 行业研究|机械制造行业 机械制造行业研究 大公国际：多重支持因素助推机械制造行业景气度上行 文/程春晓 摘要 2024 年以来在设备更新、财政等多重政策支持因素助推下，刺激了部分工程机械产 品销量增长，尤其是挖掘机和装载机等产品；但同时行业需求出现结构性变化，部分产 品销量下滑，整体市场回升进程较慢。此外需关注原材料价格波动对成本的压力。机械 制造行业作为投资驱动型行业，受宏观经济和房地产低迷影响，盈利能力整体承压，但 基础设施投资回升和政策刺激助力部分细分产品领域企业盈利恢复。未来仍需关注企业 杠杆水平及资金管理问题，以应对财务流动性挑战。预计 2025 年，机械制造行业将在 设备更新政策、财政资金投入和基础设施建设加速推进的支持下，逐步恢复增长。整体 来看，机械制造行业景气度有望上行。 正文 政策环境 2024 年以来，围绕机械制造行业的政策环境呈现出多重支持因素，主要集中在设 备更新、绿色转型和智能化发展方向，此外财政资金方面政策或间接刺激机械及上下游 行业发展。 机械制造行业在中国经济中占据着重要地位，作为基础性和战略性产业，对国家经 济发展、社会稳定以及技术进步具有不可或缺的作用；机械 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the trend of urban investment companies (UICs) in China, particularly the model of "city-district-county linkage" where municipal UICs consolidate and control district and county-level UICs to achieve resource integration and business expansion [2] - This model allows municipal UICs to leverage resources and assets across different administrative levels, fostering mutual development and resource sharing [8] - The case study of Nanyang Industrial Investment Group (Nanyang Industrial) illustrates how this model has led to rapid asset growth and expanded business scope through the consolidation of district and county-level UICs [3][6] Summary by Relevant Sections City-District-County Linkage Model - Municipal UICs, such as Nanyang Industrial, achieve asset growth and business expansion by consolidating and controlling district and county-level UICs [2][3] - This model enables resource sharing and mutual development across different administrative levels, enhancing the overall resource space for UICs [8] - Nanyang Industrial has successfully integrated 9 district and county-level UICs, expanding its asset base and business functions, including municipal infrastructure, rural revitalization, and industrial park construction [6] Nanyang Industrial Investment Group Case Study - Nanyang Industrial, established in 2018, has grown its total assets to 1,079.57 billion CNY and owner's equity to 593.36 billion CNY by 2023, primarily through the consolidation of district and county-level UICs [6][7] - The company has consolidated 9 major district and county-level UICs, each holding a 51% stake, which has significantly expanded its asset base and business scope [6] - The consolidation has allowed Nanyang Industrial to take on municipal infrastructure, rural revitalization, and industrial park construction projects across different districts and counties [6] Financial Performance - Nanyang Industrial's total assets grew from 1.09 billion CNY in 2018 to 1,079.57 billion CNY in 2023, with owner's equity increasing from 0.79 billion CNY to 593.36 billion CNY over the same period [7] - The growth in assets is attributed to the consolidation of subsidiaries, asset transfers from local governments, and operational asset acquisitions [6] Management Challenges - The consolidation of district and county-level UICs poses management challenges for municipal UICs, requiring effective oversight of investment, financing, personnel, and business operations across diverse regions [9][10] - Nanyang Industrial must manage the varying resource endowments, business types, and operational challenges of its 9 consolidated UICs, which are spread across different districts and counties [10]

大公国际资信评估有限公司 行业研究周报 钢铁行业 需求减弱叠加成本上行 钢厂盈利率小幅回调 钢铁行业到期利差对比 钢铁行业研究周报（20241104-20241110） 2024 年 11 月 4 日至 2024 年 11 月 10 日，铁水 生产成本震荡上行，钢材表观需求减弱，各品种钢 材价格普遍走低，钢厂盈利率小幅回调。消息面上， 本周十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议表决通过 了全国人大常委会关于批准《国务院关于提请审议 增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务的议案》 的决议。债券市场方面，本周钢铁债和产业债到期 利差均缩窄。 钢铁市场：本周铁水生产成本震荡上行，高炉开 工率有所回落，钢材表观需求减弱，各品种钢材 价格普遍走低，钢厂盈利率小幅回调。 一周要闻： 央行召开外资金融机构座谈会； 十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议表决 通过了全国人大常委会关于批准《国务院关于 提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性 债务的议案》的决议。 债市分析：本期钢铁行业新发行信用债 1 只， 发行总额15亿元，存续钢铁行业信用债总计292 只，存量余额 3,661.38 亿元。有存量债券的钢 铁企业无评级调整和新增违约记录 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable policy environment for the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on green and energy-saving carbon reduction, with an overall investment rating suggesting that credit risks are manageable [2][9]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is supported by demand from the electricity and new energy vehicle markets, with a slight increase in supply. Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc have shown year-on-year growth, with copper prices at a two-year high [2][7]. - The industry has seen a stable policy environment since the implementation of the carbon peak plan, with specific targets set for energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction [3][4]. - The demand from the electricity sector has increased by 24.8%, while the new energy vehicle production has surged by 33.8% year-on-year, indicating strong support for non-ferrous metals [5][6]. Policy Environment - The policy focus remains on achieving carbon peak goals, with various regional and sector-specific policies being implemented to enhance energy efficiency and promote the use of recycled metals [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant improvements in the industry’s energy structure and carbon emissions by 2025, with a target of over 24% for the share of recycled metals [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for non-ferrous metals is primarily driven by sectors such as electricity, real estate, transportation, and home appliances, with notable growth in electricity and new energy vehicles [5][6]. - The production of ten major non-ferrous metals in China reached 58.74 million tons in the first nine months of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6]. Profitability - The overall revenue for the non-ferrous metals mining sector reached 268.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, while total profits increased by 18.8% to 69.51 billion yuan [7][8]. - Prices for key metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc have shown significant year-on-year increases, with copper prices averaging 74,926.85 yuan per ton, up 9.96% from the previous year [7]. Debt Market Situation - The non-ferrous metals mining sector has a total of 137 outstanding bonds, with a balance of 154.798 billion yuan, and the credit ratings of the issuers are predominantly AAA, indicating a low overall credit risk [9][10].