行业研究 建筑施工行业 2026 年建筑施工行业展望： 供需结构深度调整，信用分化趋势显现 工商部 | 肖尧 2026 年 2 月 6 日 摘要 2025 年，我国建筑施工行业进入调整与转型阶段。行业供给端形成"高端产能不足、低 端产能过剩"的结构性矛盾，行业正处于从同质化规模供给向差异化能力供给转型的关键阶 段。需求端正经历深刻转变，增长动力从传统房地产开发逐步转向以"两重"建设、城市更 新、绿色智能建筑为代表的多元领域。融资端，债券发行集中于高信用等级央国企，行业整 体债务规模较大，需持续关注债券兑付情况。预计 2026 年，我国建筑施工行业将继续向高质 量、专业化方向演进，政策方向将聚焦国家重点战略与新兴领域。行业整体信用质量将保持 稳定，但需重点关注行业结构性调整带来的信用风险分化。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 2025 年，我国建筑业总产值进入负增长区间，行业整体进入调整期。2025 年，我国建筑 业总产值同比由 326,501.11 亿元降至 303,818.33 亿元，2025 年 1～9 月出现近 5 年来的首次 累计负增长，并于年内延续下降趋势。同期，我国建筑业新签合同额为 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power industry, emphasizing the continuation of green transformation and market-oriented reforms in 2026 [1]. Core Insights - The power industry is expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand, with a significant increase in renewable energy installations and generation, while coal power transitions to a peak-shaving role [1][4]. - The overall credit status of the industry remains strong, with high-rated state-owned enterprises dominating the bond issuance landscape, reflecting significant financing advantages [1][19]. - The report highlights the need for improved system regulation and consumption capacity to support the accelerated green transition of the power supply structure [3][4]. Supply Capacity Analysis - The total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3,890 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, marking a 16.1% year-on-year increase, with renewable energy being the main driver of this growth [3]. - Wind and solar power installations reached a combined total of 1,840 million kilowatts, with solar power growing by 35.4% and wind power by 22.9% year-on-year [3]. - The transition of coal power to a peak-shaving role is becoming more pronounced, although the system's regulation and consumption capacity require urgent enhancement [3][4]. Demand Matching Capability Analysis - The total electricity consumption in China was 10.37 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [6]. - The demand for electricity is expected to continue growing steadily in 2026, driven by the third industry and urban residents' electricity consumption [9]. Price Change Analysis - Fuel prices have declined, but installation costs are expected to rise, leading to continued pressure on electricity prices in 2026 [10][16]. - The average on-grid electricity price is anticipated to face downward pressure due to the marketization of electricity pricing and the rising costs of renewable energy installations [10][16]. Policy Direction - The report emphasizes that the focus for 2026 will be on deepening the green transition and improving the unified market system, with policies aimed at promoting efficient consumption of renewable energy [17][18]. - The establishment of a new power system and the construction of a national unified electricity market are highlighted as key areas for policy development [17][18]. Credit Rating Situation Analysis - The bond issuance scale in the power industry reached 1,797.64 billion yuan in 2025, a significant increase of 62.24% year-on-year, with the majority of issuers being high-rated state-owned enterprises [19][20]. - The report notes that the credit ratings of power enterprises remain high, with most issuers rated AAA, reflecting the industry's overall strong credit quality [20][26]. Cycle Development Outlook - The power demand is expected to grow steadily alongside economic recovery and electrification processes, maintaining a balance between supply and demand [28]. - The report anticipates that the electricity pricing mechanism will become more flexible, with potential downward pressure on market transaction prices [28][29].

房地产行业 2025 年回顾与 2026 年展望： 行业研究 房地产行业 销售持续筑底，止跌回稳转向巩固稳定态势 工商部 | 马天姿 葛若寒 2026 年 1 月 28 日 摘要 2025 年，供给端在"严控增量"政策下深度收缩，房地产开发投资加速探底，新房供应 持续减少；需求端销售降幅收窄，呈止跌回稳态势，结构方面进一步向高能级城市及住宅需 求集中；百城新建住宅价格仍结构性微涨，但二手房市场"以价换量"行情未变；全年宏观 政策定调统筹风险化解与模式转型，从"止跌回稳"到"巩固稳定态势"；融资端修复效果有 限，信用利差同比有所下降，增信方式对降低信用利差的作用有限；行业内违约问题及债务 压力仍存在。从 2025 年全年房地产市场发展情况来看，我国房地产行业仍处于深度调整向弱 复苏过渡的筑底周期，政策托底不断巩固稳定态势，预计 2026 年市场有望逐步探明底部或将 进入筑底横盘阶段，"好房子"与城市更新的"优供给"举措将成为重要抓手，但长期仍需依 赖房地产发展新模式的建立与完善。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 2025 年，房地产开发投资加速探底，新开工规模深度收缩。2025 年，在全年行业严控 ...

Investment Rating - The media industry is rated as stable, with a focus on digital transformation in the upcoming years [1] Core Insights - The media industry is entering a critical phase of digital transformation, with a competitive landscape characterized by the concentration of traffic among major players and the struggle for survival among traditional media [1] - The demand structure of the media industry is undergoing a transformation due to the proliferation of digital technology and changing user habits, leading to a shift from passive consumption to active participation [12] Industry Supply Capacity Analysis - Traditional media, particularly book retail, experienced negative growth in 2025, with a retail market value decline of 2.24% and a sales value drop of 3.80% [2] - New media user base continues to expand, with internet users in China reaching 1.123 billion and an internet penetration rate of 79.7% by June 2025 [2] - The gaming market maintained growth, achieving a record revenue of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.68% [3] Industry Demand Matching Capability Analysis - Content e-commerce surpassed platform e-commerce to become the largest retail channel in 2025, reflecting a shift to a "content-driven" phase in the book retail market [8] - Short videos and live streaming emerged as significant catalysts for consumer spending, with 45.9% of users making purchases influenced by these formats [9] - The number of micro-short dramas broadcasted on satellite channels increased significantly, with a total of 124 dramas aired in 2025, marking a 254.3% increase from the previous year [10] Industry Competitive Landscape Analysis - The media industry is experiencing a competitive environment where traffic is increasingly concentrated among major players, with ByteDance and Tencent dominating the market [16] - Traditional media is undergoing a challenging transformation, with leading traditional media outlets actively seeking breakthroughs in digitalization [16] Industry Credit Rating Analysis - The media industry's bond issuers are primarily concentrated in traditional media, with AAA ratings being predominant; the issuance scale of AA+ rated entities saw significant growth in 2025 [23] - The average credit spread for unsecured bonds in the media industry has remained relatively stable since the second quarter of 2025 [23] Industry Development Outlook - The media industry is expected to enter a critical phase of digital transformation, with a projected market recovery driven by the integration of artificial intelligence and the emergence of new business models [29] - Companies with strong cash flow and proactive engagement in AI technologies are likely to recover faster, while those relying on high leverage may face continued market pressure [29]

行业研究 行业研究|煤炭行业 煤炭行业 大公国际：能源转型背景下煤炭企业高质量发展策略 ——存量时代的供需逻辑、价格趋势与突破方向 文/工商部 白迪、刘佳聪、陈杰 摘要 "富煤、贫油、少气"的资源禀赋决定了我国以煤炭为主的能源结构。在 2025 年 《政府工作报告》中，国务院总理李强提到协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长，加快经济社会 发展全面绿色转型。在全球能源转型、中国"双碳"目标及深化供给侧结构性改革的背 景下，煤炭作为传统能源的重要组成部分，正处于行业变革的关键时期。供给方面，行 业利润、环保政策分别是影响煤炭供给的核心内外生因素。需求方面，经济周期、产业 政策和电气化是过去影响需求的重要因素，人工智能或将成为未来影响新增需求的重大 因素。价格方面，2022 年以来我国煤炭价格整体呈现"先涨后跌"的态势，预计未来随 着市场化改革深化、绿色转型推进等，煤炭价格更趋向于市场化。本文从资源禀赋、供 需、进口及价格等方面对煤炭行业现状进行深度分析，选取部分上市煤炭企业作为案例 研究，最后提出煤炭企业在存量时代实现高质量发展的发力点。 正文 （一）煤炭资源禀赋 "富煤、贫油、少气"，是我国不可再生能源资源的特点。根据美国 ...

行业研究 行业研究|零售行业 零售行业 零售行业2025 年展望 消费品以旧换新加力扩围 电子消费领域迎来国补热潮 文/周春云 摘要 2024 年，在消费品以旧换新政策带动下，消费市场总体保持平稳增长，服务零售对 消费增长形成重要支撑，网络零售占比持续提升；居民收入和消费均保持增长，但增速 有所下滑，全年 CPI 走势偏弱，我国物价仍处于低位。2024 年，国家层面陆续出台一系 列相关政策支持"两新"行动，消费品以旧换新工作取得积极成效；2025 年 1 月出台 《关于 2025 年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，增加了家 电产品以旧换新补贴范围，并对购买手机、平板、智能手表手环 3 类数码产品实施购新 补贴，预计 2025 年，政策主基调仍将是消费品以旧换新。在电商等线上平台冲击以及 百货"闭店潮"下，零售企业面临较大盈利压力，2024 年前三季度，零售行业企业盈利 整体下行；未来随着《零售业创新提升工程实施方案》的逐步落地实施，零售业发展困 境或将有所好转，盈利能力或将有所提升。截至 2024 年末，零售行业存续主体整体级 别较高，存续债券期限结构较为分散，零售企业整体债务压力不大 ...

信用风险展望 | 融资租赁行业 信用风险展望 融资租赁行业 融资租赁行业 2025 年信用风险展望 革新破局正当时 融资租赁行业乘势起锚赴新程 分析师 冯琪雅 010-67413413 目录 赵子媛 010-67413401 金融部 行业组长 zhaoziyuan@dagongcredit.com 金融部 分析师 fengqiya@dagongcredit.com | 监管政策 2 | | --- | | 资产规模 3 | | 资产质量 4 | | 盈利能力 6 | | 资本充足水平 6 | | 债务融资 7 | | 信用质量 9 | 马时伊 010-67413344 金融部 分析师 mashiyi@dagongcredit.com 客户服务 电话：010-67413300 客服：4008-84-4008 Email：research@dagongcredit.com 2025 年 1 月 23 日 2024 年，行业监管政策继续引导融资租赁公司转型升级和高质 量发展。预计 2025 年，随着监管力度的不断加强和业务转型的压 力加大，融资租赁公司资产规模将呈现稳健增长但分化加剧的趋 势，资产质量整体可控，资本 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The traditional "pig cycle" has failed since 2022, with price fluctuations no longer adhering to the previous four-year cycle pattern, influenced by the rise of large-scale breeding enterprises and changes in market dynamics [1][12][13] - The analysis shifts focus from profitability to cash flow, emphasizing the behavior of market participants in understanding the credit risks within the pig farming industry [16][17] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pork is a major protein source in China, with per capita consumption at 30.5 kg in 2023, leading to a stable demand in a market valued around 2 trillion [2] - The supply side is characterized by a long recovery cycle due to the pyramid breeding system, resulting in poor price elasticity [2][4] Historical Pig Cycles - From 2010 to 2022, China experienced three complete pig cycles, with price fluctuations driven by breeding profits and external factors like disease outbreaks [4][6] - The cycles typically last around four years, influenced by the pyramid breeding system and a market dominated by smallholders [9][10] Changes in Industry Structure - Since 2022, the pig cycle has deviated from its traditional pattern, with large-scale enterprises gaining market dominance, leading to rapid price fluctuations [12][13] - The shift to large-scale operations has altered the market's response to price changes, reducing the predictability of the cycle [13] Cash Flow and Market Behavior - The report highlights the importance of cash flow in the pig farming industry, noting that cash consumption increases when prices fall below production costs, leading to potential credit risks [16][17] - The ability of enterprises to manage cash flow and financing is crucial in navigating the industry's cyclical nature [25][44] Credit Risk Analysis - As of December 2024, the total bond issuance in the pig farming sector is 626.69 billion, with a concentration among major players like Muyuan Foods and WH Group [20][21] - The credit ratings of companies in the industry vary, with several rated AAA and AA, indicating a generally stable credit environment despite potential risks [20][22] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a slight increase in pig supply in 2025, with average prices expected to decline compared to 2024, influenced by stable demand and rising production efficiency [30][42] - The financial health of the industry is improving, with cash reserves increasing and debt levels decreasing, although some smaller enterprises may face credit risks due to poor cost control [39][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit quality outlook for the financing guarantee industry, with expectations of continued pressure on profitability and capital expansion slowing down [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The financing guarantee industry is expected to face operational challenges in 2024, with a focus on supporting small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technological innovation. The market for bond guarantees is anticipated to shrink due to declining market interest rates and policy adjustments, leading to continued pressure on profitability in 2025 [3][4][5]. - The competition landscape in the financing guarantee industry is expected to remain stable, with credit quality holding steady and overall asset quality and liquidity risks being manageable [3][4][5]. Industry Policy - In 2024, policies will continue to emphasize increasing direct financing, with a focus on resource allocation to small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technological innovation. By 2025, it is expected that guarantee institutions will receive more support from local governments [4][5][6][7]. Business Operations - The market focus for guarantee institutions will remain on urban investment bonds, but the scale of bond guarantee business is expected to decline. Innovative financing guarantee products and non-financing guarantee services are anticipated to become key areas for differentiation [9][10][18]. - The operational pressure on guarantee institutions is evident, with a significant decrease in new bond guarantees and a cautious approach to market-based loan guarantees [10][19]. Asset Quality - The pressure on loan guarantee business compensation is expected to persist, but overall asset quality is projected to remain controllable. The structure of assets will continue to prioritize high liquidity [22][25]. Profitability - Profitability is expected to remain under pressure due to low guarantee fee rates and declining income from funding operations. The income from guarantee business is anticipated to decrease further in 2025 [26][31]. Liquidity - The liquidity risk for guarantee institutions is expected to remain manageable, with high liquidity assets effectively covering interest-bearing debts and compensation shocks from loan guarantees [32][38]. Capital Adequacy - The capital replenishment demand for market-oriented guarantee institutions is expected to slow down, with a differentiated capital level across the industry. Government-backed guarantee institutions may see an increase in capital needs, but challenges in replenishment remain [39][41]. Credit Quality - The overall credit quality of the financing guarantee industry is expected to remain stable, with a high level of credit among institutions engaged in bond guarantees. As of the end of 2024, a significant number of guarantee institutions maintain high credit ratings [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable investment rating for the banking industry in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for credit quality and overall stability in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The banking industry is expected to experience stable credit quality in 2025, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which will aid in credit growth and liquidity management [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory policies in guiding banks to effectively serve the real economy and mitigate risks in key areas, particularly for small and medium-sized banks [4][5]. - The overall asset quality of commercial banks is projected to remain stable, aided by government debt risk mitigation and favorable real estate policies [23][30]. - Profitability is expected to face challenges due to continued pressure on net interest margins, particularly for regional banks [31][32]. - Liquidity levels are anticipated to remain sufficient, supported by ongoing monetary policy measures [38][41]. - Capital adequacy is expected to improve, particularly for state-owned large banks, while regional banks will continue to face urgent capital replenishment needs [42][45]. - Debt financing is projected to remain active, with a focus on special financial bonds, although the issuance of certain capital-raising bonds may decline [46][47]. - The overall credit quality of the banking sector is expected to remain stable, with attention needed on banks in economically weaker regions [51][52]. Summary by Sections Industry Policy - The regulatory framework will continue to guide banks in supporting the real economy and addressing risks in critical areas, with a focus on high-quality development [4][5]. Operating Scale - The banking sector's asset scale expansion is expected to slow, but supportive fiscal and monetary policies will stimulate credit demand [15][16]. Asset Quality - The asset quality of commercial banks is projected to remain stable, with a focus on mitigating credit risks in key sectors [23][30]. Profitability - Profitability pressures are anticipated due to narrowing net interest margins, particularly affecting regional banks [31][32]. Liquidity Level - The liquidity of commercial banks is expected to remain adequate, supported by monetary policy measures [38][41]. Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy levels are expected to improve, particularly for state-owned banks, while regional banks will face ongoing capital replenishment needs [42][45]. Debt Financing - Debt financing activities are expected to remain robust, with a focus on special financial bonds, although some capital-raising bond issuances may decline [46][47]. Credit Quality - The overall credit quality of the banking sector is expected to remain stable, with a need for vigilance regarding banks in economically weaker regions [51][52].