证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 04 日 浙商早知道 市场总览 重要推荐 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025 年 06 月 04 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 大势：6 月 3 日上证指数上涨 0.43%，沪深 300 上涨 0.31%，科创 50 上涨 0.48%，中证 1000 上涨 0.72%，创业板 指上涨 0.48%，恒生指数上涨 1.53%。 行业：6 月 3 日表现最好的行业分别是美容护理（+3.86%)、纺织服饰（+2.53%)、综合（+2.02%)、银行 （+1.98%)、农林牧渔（+1.8%)，表现最差的行业分别是家用电器（-2.1%)、钢铁（-1.37%)、煤炭（-0.84%)、建 筑材料（-0.52%)、环保（-0.4%)。 资金：6 月 3 日全 A 总成交额为 11638.3 亿元，南下资金净流入 39.05 亿港元。 【浙商银行 梁凤洁/邱冠华/徐安妮】南京银行（601009）公司深度： ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 03 日 2025 年 06 月 03 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/潘高远/费瑾/陈冀】宏观深度报告：5 月经济前瞻：供需缺口待弥合，关注实物工作 量落地——20250602 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 浙商早知道 宏观 2、核心观点 5 月基本面呈现修复态势，抢出口或带动供需同步改善，但物价水平暂未反弹，量价两个维度或延续背离。 后期走势仍需观察基本面的波动性，特别是外贸修复的斜率与可持续性。 1）市场看法 市场预期财政政策有望加码。 2）观点变化 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/潘高远/费瑾/陈冀】宏观深度报告：5 月经济前瞻：供需缺口待 弥合，关注实物工作量落地——20250602 1、所在领域 持平 3）驱动因素 国家统计局发布 5 月官方 PMI 数据。 4）与市场差异 我们认为宏观政策兼具逆周期与跨周 ...

证券研究报告 钢铁周报：重视淡季的底部布局 行业评级：看好 2025 年 06 月 02 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格 | | 【浙商金属 沈皓俊】 | | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年6月1日） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 347 | 0 . | 0% | | -0 . | 1% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 840 | -1 . | 1% | | -2 . | 4% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 124 | -0 . | 7% | | 1 . | 0% | | 块 | ...

行业评级：看好 2025 年 06 月 02 日 证券研究报告 钢铁周报：重视淡季的底部布局 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格 | | 【浙商金属 沈皓俊】 | | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年6月1日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 347 | 0 . | 0% | -0 . | 1% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 840 | -1 . | 1% | -2 . | 4% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 124 | -0 . | 7% | 1 . | 0% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 02 日 风偏下行，稳健优先 ——可转债周度跟踪 核心观点 本周权益与转债市场胜率相对不足，各宽基和转债指数涨跌各异，短期或因关税扰动 而承压。5 月以来市场上涨更多呈现超跌反弹特征，投资者基于赔率考量在市场调整 时积极入场，叠加中央汇金等机构对权益市场的持续看好，驱动市场行情持续走高。 考虑到目前转债市场潜在的风险释放压力，哑铃配置策略或继续占优。 ❑ 风险提示 经济基本面改善不足；国内流动性收紧；海外风险事件超预期；历史经验不代表 未来 分析师：沈聂萍 执业证书号：S1230524020005 shennieping@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：章恒豪 zhanghenghao@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《脉冲式交易策略或仍适用》 2025.06.01 2 《央行持续净投放，呵护跨月 资金面》 2025.06.01 3 《波澜不惊，择机配置》 2025.05.31 正文目录 | 1 市场观察 … | | --- | | 2 转债市场跟踪 … | | 2.1 转债行情方面…………… ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 5 月 26 日~5 月 30 日，5 个交易日沪深 300 指数下降 1.08%，非乳饮料 （+8.96%）、其他酒类（+7.93%）涨幅居前，白酒（-2.80%）有所下跌。 【白酒板块】重视内需配置价值，看好白酒龙头个股布局机会 板块回顾：本周白酒板块表现平稳 5 月 26 日~5 月 30 日，5 个交易日沪深 300 指数下降 1.08%，白酒板块下降 2.80%。具体来看，天佑德酒（+3.88%）、华致酒行（+2.12%）、伊力特 （+1.17%）涨幅居前，泸州老窖（-4.04%）、山西汾酒（-4.01%）、迎驾贡 酒（-3.51%）跌幅居前。 白酒行业更新：二季度白酒消费或承压，板块仍在筑底，关注中期配置机会 近日，公务接待新政策出台，对于"禁酒令"的讨论受到广泛关注，我们整 理相关信息如下： 新消费掘金低位股，白酒待筑底拐点 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 5 月第 4 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：新消费行情延续，关注股价低位/低估值及后续有催化的潜力标 的，后续催化仍关注"食品板块品类红利"、"会员商超等新渠道驱动"、 "保健品新热点"等三方面。以白酒为 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 01 日 经济周周看：本周经济景气度延续平稳，消费出口韧性强 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 5 月 31 日）为 5.7%，与上周修订值 5.7%基本持 平，或表征经济增长景气相对平稳。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周总体平稳。 从需求端来看，各变量分化，消费延续走强，固投偏弱，抢出口支撑出口高增。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from April, returning to the expansion zone after briefly falling below 50%[3] - The new orders index recorded 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from April, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months[1] - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in this sector[1] - The coal-fired power generation's cumulative output in May increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cumulative output for the year decreased by 6.8%[6] Group 3: External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index for May is 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from April, reflecting cautious optimism in external demand[15] - The government plans to increase support for consumer goods replacement, raising the special bonds for this initiative from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan[12] - The automotive market saw a retail scale of approximately 1.85 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%[13]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with major indices showing a "dilemma" pattern, where the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 fell by 0.03%, 1.22%, and 1.08% respectively[54] - The North China 50 index rose by 2.82%, indicating stronger performance compared to other indices[11] - The TMT sector showed some recovery, while export-related sectors performed weakly, with automotive and electric new energy sectors declining by 4.32% and 2.21% respectively[12] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous week[18] - The margin trading balance remained stable at 1.80 trillion yuan, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 8.70%[28] - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 12.45 billion yuan, with the securities ETF experiencing the highest inflow[28] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a trend of oscillation and narrow fluctuations, as the technical pressure on major indices has become clear, particularly around the gap formed on April 10 (3186-3201 points)[4] - The brokerage sector, which has been adjusting since November 8, 2024, is seen as a potential "breaker" of the current dilemma, warranting increased attention[4] - It is recommended to maintain current mid-line positions and consider increasing allocations if a rapid market pullback occurs, especially near the April 10 gap[4] Risks - There are risks associated with domestic economic recovery not meeting expectations and uncertainties in global geopolitical situations[58]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [3] Core Insights - The global supply structure of natural rubber is undergoing significant changes, with Southeast Asian producers facing supply constraints due to aging trees and competition from alternative crops, while African countries like Côte d'Ivoire are experiencing rapid production growth due to lower labor costs and mature rubber trees [5][31] - Supply growth is limited while demand is steadily increasing, suggesting a potential long-term price increase for natural rubber [6] - China remains the largest consumer of natural rubber, accounting for 45% of global consumption in 2024, with a strong demand driven by the tire industry [30][76] Summary by Sections Supply Side Tightening - The supply of natural rubber is tightening due to a combination of factors including aging tree structures and limited new planting areas, leading to a forecasted production increase of only 0.5% in 2025 [6][48] - Southeast Asia's traditional rubber-producing regions are under pressure, with Thailand's planting area declining for eight consecutive years and production capacity growth being constrained [31][36] Demand Resilience - Global demand for natural rubber is expected to grow steadily, with a projected increase of 1.3% in 2025, driven primarily by the tire industry, which constitutes over 70% of consumption [76] - The tire production rates remain high, with full steel tire operating rates at 65% and semi-steel tire rates at 78% as of May 2025 [80] Market Dynamics - The natural rubber market has experienced long periods of low prices since 2018 due to oversupply, but recent trends indicate a potential shift as supply tightens and demand remains robust [37][40] - The pricing power is shifting towards the supply side, particularly as China faces increasing import dependencies and concentrated sources for natural rubber [30][36]