2025年9月8日 证券研究报告 药中银行拐点至 ——中药2025年中报业绩综述暨四季度策略 行业评级：看好 分析师 王班 分析师 吴天昊 分析师 丁健行 邮箱 wangban@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 wutianhao@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 dingjianxing@stocke.com.cn 电话 15800935963 电话 13262686562 电话 19921317891 证书编号 S1230525070003 证书编号 S1230523120004 证书编号 S1230524050003 1、核心观点：业绩拐点将现，板块行情将启 1 摘要 中药行业在医药板块中具备类似银行行业的属性，现金充裕分红高，利润增长波动少，海外局势影响小。 2025Q2行业营收和归母净利润增速环比2025Q1均有改善，在中药材降价带来的成本压力减轻下，我们预计2025H2行业业 绩增速有望环比2025H1好转。 2、半年报综述 中药半年报压力均较大，主动提质增效实现业绩增长 渠道库存有所降低，盈利能力有望持续提升 指数稳步修复，机构持仓仍轻 动态市盈率居2021年以来低位 3、核心指标跟踪 流感数据 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 酒店餐饮 估值洼地，只欠东风 ——餐饮行业 2025 中报业绩综述暨 2025Q4 季度策略 投资要点 25H1 业绩回顾 本轮自 2023 年初以来的餐饮行业复苏，其幅度由需求决定，节奏由供给决定。 细分赛道来看，茶饮细分领域的节奏领先西式快餐及正餐等细分领域约 1 至 2 个 季度，头部茶饮品牌已于 25Q1 逐步回暖，我们预计头部西式快餐/头部正餐分别 已于 25Q2/25 年 7-8 月实现同店持平或回正。 客单价维度，25H1 头部品牌已普遍企稳回升，其中肯德基/古茗/海底捞/太二/九 毛九等品牌同比提升 1%至 5%不等。此外，值得一提是，海底捞/太二等头部品牌 已呈现连续半年维度的客单价企稳上行。历经 2 年维度的市场自然出清和调节， 我们预计客单价下行已逐步收敛或结束，25H2 整体行业客单价有望企稳回升。 同店维度，头部茶饮品牌杯量 25H1 实现同比大幅增长，我们预计即便是无外卖 大战加持的 25Q1，头部品牌古茗、蜜雪冰城、瑞幸仍实现正向增长。头部西式快 餐品牌肯德基/必胜客也于 25Q2 实现同店同比回正，考虑复苏节奏，我们预计头 部正餐品牌海底捞 7- ...

证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 增量资金如何塑造牛市风格？ ——中国 A 股历史上第一次"系统性'慢'牛"（四） 核心观点 时势造英雄，本轮牛市的风格和节奏一定程度由增量资金决定。我们对主动权益基金、 ETF 资金、个人投资者、保险及银行理财子、外资、量化基金、私募基金等各路资金 的影响力和行为模式做深度剖析，核心切入点包括：规模观测指标、适宜的宏观环境、 投资风格与典型因子、代表指数、投资表现、定价权历史复盘及未来流入展望。我们 发现：主动权益基金配置吸引力回升，ETF 资金担当市场稳定器，个人投资者以趋势 为王，保险及银行理财子进行股债平衡，外资成交活跃度抬升，量化基金享受流动性。 主动权益基金：发行和业绩双双改善，配置吸引力回升 2025 年以来，偏好景气赛道/大盘成长风格的主动权益基金发行规模已明显回暖， 且在全部新发基金中的占比进一步回升，赚钱效应也较 2022 年-2024 年显著改观， 主动股基、偏股混合等部分代表性指数大幅跑赢沪深 300。历史上看，牛市处于中 后期时居民存款通常会因较强的投资吸引力而加速流入主动权益基金。伴随市场 稳步向上运行、中长期趋势良好，主动权益基金业绩改 ...

证券研究报告 游戏深度：星辰大海，长期繁荣 ——游戏板块推荐报告 2025年9月8日 行业评级：看好 姓名 冯翠婷 姓名 陈磊 邮箱 fengcuiting@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 chenlei01@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230525010001 证书编号 S1230521090002 推荐综述 推荐理由 行业基本面强势，A股游戏板块上半年营收同比增长22.8%，业绩已在拐点右侧，25H2及2026年有望持续上调业绩，后续将靠EPS预期修复继续驱动板块景气度提升。另外， 板块估值仍处低位，涨幅空间大，配置上建议"高低搭配"。 超预期点 游戏板块整体2026年有望达20倍P/E估值（当前时间点对应2026年平均估值约16倍P/E），进入25Q4后，估值切换有望开启。建议重点关注：1）当前时间点产品线优秀的 右侧标的：ST华通、巨人网络、三七互娱、吉比特，以及港股的腾讯控股、心动公司；产品线新游可期的左侧标的：神州泰岳、恺英网络、完美世界；新技术积极布局的： 盛天网络、掌趣科技等。 爆款游戏驱动下，板块近三个季度市场规模提升较大。我们认为，在当前宏观经济环境与AI提效的背景下，未来 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 休闲食品 25H1 业绩承压，静待后续修复 ——绝味食品 2025 年半年报业绩点评报告 投资要点 1.63pct）,毛利率下降主要系折扣促销影响 2）费用率： 25H1 销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 10.02%/8.61%/0.88%/0.38%，同比变动分别为+1.10pct/+2.00pct/+0.20pct/- 0.03pct；其中 25Q2 销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 10.39%/10.77%/1.03%/0.43%，同比变动分别为 +0.39pct/+3.81pct/+0.28pct/+0.10pct。管理费用提升主要系职工薪酬和咨询服务费 用增加。 3）净利率：25H1 实现 5.85%（同比-2.66pct），其中 25Q2 实现 3.78%（同比- 3.81pct） ❑ 维持"买入"评级 考虑到当前行业受到需求疲软及竞争压力加剧等情况，且公司正处门店调整阶 段，我们调整此前盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年公司实现收入分别为 56.94、 59.45、63.04 亿元，同比分别为-9%、+4%、+6%；预计实现归母净利润分别为 3.48、 ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the transformation of Xinsida (002527) under Haier's leadership, focusing on integrated solutions and embodied intelligence, which is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and financial performance [4][5] - The report anticipates that Xinsida's revenue will grow from 3543 million in 2025 to 4153 million in 2027, with a net profit forecasted to increase significantly from 13 million in 2025 to 190 million in 2027 [5] - The report emphasizes the potential of Henghe Precision (300539) as a high-quality precision manufacturing enterprise, particularly in the automotive parts sector, which is expected to see substantial growth [6][8] Group 2: Market Insights - The report indicates that the automotive intelligent cockpit market is projected to reach 1564 billion in China by 2025, with a growth rate of 21%, driven by the increasing demand for smart automotive components [7] - The report notes that the global automotive tailgate market is expected to reach 15 billion USD by the end of 2027, highlighting the trend towards lightweight automotive components [7][8] - The report discusses the overall positive outlook for the A-share market, suggesting a "slow bull" market with opportunities for strategic adjustments in investment portfolios [10][11] Group 3: Industry Trends - The report identifies AI as a key driver of growth in the technology sector, particularly in computing and communication industries, with significant profit growth expected [14] - The report highlights that the demand for electric two-wheeled vehicles is improving the profitability of the automotive industry, despite the limited number of companies in this sector [13][14] - The report suggests that the supply-demand dynamics in the market are continuously improving, with a notable focus on AI-related performance [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, major inflection points of convertible bonds are basically synchronous with equities, and capital behavior determines the actual performance of convertible bonds in trending markets. Short - term, capital attitude and behavior determine the performance of convertible bonds around phased inflection points. The convertible bond index may enter a volatile phase in the short term, following changes in the equity market with potentially increased market volatility [1][3][12] - After the adjustment, the average price of convertible bonds has declined, the conversion premium rate has decreased, and the problem of over - valued convertible bonds has been alleviated [19] Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - Past week, both the equity and convertible bond markets adjusted, stabilized, and rebounded, with convertible bonds performing slightly better than underlying stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated above 3800 points, being weak in the first four trading days and significantly rebounding on Friday. The Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.51% last week, while the Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.75%, and the overall market premium rate increased [10] - Since August 27, the amplitude of the convertible bond market has increased, with different driving factors. On August 27 and September 1, the adjustment was mainly due to capital outflows from the convertible bond market, and convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks. On September 2, the decline and on September 5, the increase were mainly due to changes in the equity market, with parity driving the performance of convertible bonds. On September 5, the high follow - up performance of convertible bonds was due to capital represented by convertible bond ETFs turning to net inflows [2][11] - Absolute return funds have shifted from direct to indirect holding of convertible bonds. In August, institutions other than public funds basically reduced their holdings of convertible bonds due to the shrinking market size, while public funds continued the growth trend from July. From July to August, absolute return funds such as wealth management subsidiaries and trusts continuously reduced their direct holdings of convertible bonds but indirectly held them by buying fixed - income + funds and convertible bond ETFs. The large - scale inflow of fixed - income + funds, likely synchronous with convertible bond ETFs, started in mid - to - early July, driving up the valuation of convertible bonds. Recently, the attitude of fixed - income + funds has changed due to market fluctuations. Convertible bond ETFs had net outflows on September 1 and 2 and large net inflows on September 5. The previous adjustment of convertible bonds was mainly due to the profit - taking sentiment of absolute return funds, and the weak recovery this time is because the price and valuation of the convertible bond market have reached absolute highs, resulting in the convertible bond trend leading that of the equity market slightly [4][15][16] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods, including the past week, two weeks, September to date, one month, two months, half - year, and one year. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index rose 1.03% in the past week, - 2.75% in the past two weeks, etc. [22] 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of price changes in the past week, but specific bond names are not provided [24] 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The report presents the valuation trends of different types of convertible bonds, such as debt - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, including the conversion premium rate trends of different parities of convertible bonds [31] 2.4 Convertible Bond Price - The report shows the price median trend of convertible bonds [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 22.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 107%, and a net profit of 472 million yuan, reflecting a staggering year-on-year growth of 50359% [1] - The company is positioned as a pure player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the bulk snack segment, with a continued focus on new store formats and potential Hong Kong listing [1][3] - The net profit margin has consistently exceeded expectations, with operational capabilities showing continuous improvement [1] Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan, up 93% year-on-year, and a net profit of 257 million yuan, up 4940% year-on-year [1] - The bulk snack business generated revenue of 11.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.7% after adjusting for share-based payment expenses [1] - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with H1 2025 sales cash receipts of 25.14 billion yuan, inventory of 1.672 billion yuan, and cash reserves of 3.436 billion yuan [1] Store Expansion - The company opened 1,468 new stores in the first half of the year, maintaining a low closure rate of 2% [2] - The total number of stores at the end of the period reached 15,365, with expectations for accelerated store openings in the second half of the year [2] Minority Shareholder Rights Recovery and Financing - The company plans to acquire 49% equity in Nanjing Wanyou for 1.379 billion yuan, increasing its stake to 75% [3] - The company is also planning a Hong Kong listing, aiming to issue up to 15% of its total share capital [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1.23 billion, 1.83 billion, and 2.39 billion yuan, with growth rates of 319%, 49%, and 30% respectively [3] - The expected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.56 yuan, 9.76 yuan, and 12.74 yuan respectively [3] Catalysts - Key catalysts for the company include faster-than-expected store openings, continued improvement in net profit margins, and the recovery of minority shareholder rights [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 9.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, down 46% [1][2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to competitive pressures in the industry, consumer subsidies for childbirth, and inventory reduction efforts [2] - The gross margin decreased to 61.6%, down 6.3 percentage points, primarily due to an increased proportion of sales from raw milk products [3] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, distributing a mid-term dividend of 1 billion yuan, representing a 100% payout ratio [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 19.04 billion, 19.99 billion, and 20.83 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, +5.0%, and +4.2% respectively [5] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 2.31 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.98 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -35.4%, +13.0%, and +14.6% respectively [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.25 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.71 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [1][2] - The company's store network continues to expand, with a total of 53,014 stores as of mid-2025, representing a net increase of 6,535 stores compared to the end of 2024 [3][4] - The company is focusing on both domestic and overseas markets, with strategies tailored to different regions, including aggressive expansion in the domestic market and optimization of existing stores in Southeast Asia [3][4] Revenue Growth - The revenue growth in 25H1 was driven by the expansion of the store network and an increase in average store sales, with the average single-store contribution to sales reaching 278,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] - The revenue structure remains stable, with product sales, equipment sales, and franchise-related services contributing 13.84 billion, 650 million, and 380 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.5%, 42.3%, and 29.8% [2] Operational Strategy - The company is accelerating store openings, particularly in lower-tier cities, while also expanding the "Lucky Coffee" brand, which has seen a significant increase in store numbers [3][4] - The operational strategy for the domestic market focuses on steady expansion and improving store operational quality, while the overseas strategy emphasizes deepening market presence in Southeast Asia [4] Profitability - The gross margin for 25H1 was 31.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.3% [5] - The company maintains a stable cost structure, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios remaining relatively unchanged [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 32.81 billion, 37.40 billion, and 42.84 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.1%, 14.0%, and 14.5% respectively [11] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is expected to be 5.81 billion, 6.67 billion, and 7.69 billion yuan, with growth rates of 30.9%, 14.8%, and 15.3% [11]