昆仑万维(300418) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 1）短剧出海商业化强度超预期：DramaWave 平台 8 月已跃居海外短剧收入榜第 三位，25 年 12 月环比增长 35.4%，位列收入榜第四。25 年 12 月下载量环比上涨 超 90%，成为 Top 15 中涨幅最高的产品。预计 25 年短剧收入同比增长 900%至 16.8 亿元，26-27 年持续加速增长，成为核心现金流引擎。 2）AI 智能体商业化落地或提前突破：公司先后发布并开源多款行业领先模型， 搭建全链路 AI 应用矩阵，以天工超级智能体为核心，联动 AI Developer、AI 视 频、AI 音乐、AI 游戏与 AI 社交产品，全面覆盖 C 端与 B 端需求，平台影响力 与商业化能力显著提升。25H1 AI 软件技术收入已达 6500 万元，验证商业化雏 形，26 年有望实现规模化收入。 3）世界模型技术卡位领先全球：公司 8 月开源 Matrix 3D 模型，Matrix-Game 2.0 则为交互式世界模型的升级版本，是业内首个在通用场景下实现实时长序列交互 生成的开源方案，可复用于游戏、影视、具身智能，为未来增 ...

新动能，新头部 ——南京银行推荐报告 投资要点 南京银行交易面支撑力主要来自：①股息估值性价比高。截至 2026年 2月 3日， 南京银行 2025 年股息率为 5.0%，较城商行平均高 56bp。我们预计南京银行 2026 年利润增速有望维持大个位数乃至接近双位数的利润增长，那么 2026 年动态股 息率约为 5.5%；截至 2026 年 2 月 3 日，南京银行 PB（对应 25Q3 末每股净资 产）为 0.72x，低于其他优质区域城商行，如宁波银行、杭州银行、成都银行 PB 分别为 0.93x、0.86x、0.79x。②筹码结构优的权重股。南京银行主动公募持仓低 于板块平均，25Q4 末南京银行主动公募基金持仓占自由流通比例为 1.0%，较城 商行平均低 0.2pc，显著低于其他优质城商行；南京银行在沪深 300、主要红利指 数中，有望受益于未来指数基金扩容。③主要股东较持股上限仍有空间。2025年 以来主要股东大举增持，累计净买入股票对应市值为 74 亿，位居上市公司第 一；主要股东实力雄厚，仍有增持空间，前十大股东中如法巴、江苏交控、南京 紫投较增持上限仍有 1.9pc、0.8pc、1.5pc，新进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanjing Bank, with a target price of 16.26 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 54% from the current price [3]. Core Insights - Nanjing Bank is expected to experience a strong profit growth rate, with projected net profit growth of 8.08% in 2025, 9.54% in 2026, and 8.86% in 2027, supported by a favorable dividend yield and a strong shareholder base [3][11]. - The bank's capital replenishment is expected to enhance operational management, leading to an improvement in Return on Equity (ROE) [3][25]. - The bank's dividend yield is projected to be 5.0% for 2025, which is 56 basis points higher than the average for city commercial banks, with an expected dynamic dividend yield of approximately 5.5% in 2026 [2][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Capital Injection and Operational Improvement - Nanjing Bank's performance has shown a U-shaped recovery since 2024, with revenue and net profit growth rates improving significantly compared to 2023 [16]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio was at a low of 0.83% as of Q4 2025, reflecting effective cost control [16][24]. - The management team, led by experienced executives, is focused on enhancing operational performance and value creation [41]. 2. High Dividend Valuation and Strong Trading Support - The bank's stock is undervalued compared to other quality city commercial banks, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 0.72x, lower than peers like Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank [2][45]. - Nanjing Bank has a low public fund holding ratio of 1.0%, which is below the average for city commercial banks, indicating a favorable trading structure [2][47]. - Major shareholders have been actively increasing their stakes, providing additional support for the stock price [2][47]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The bank's net profit is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.08% from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding Book Value per Share (BPS) estimates of 14.64 CNY, 16.26 CNY, and 17.69 CNY [3][11]. - The report anticipates that the bank's valuation will return to the top tier of city commercial banks, driven by both fundamental and trading factors [3][9].

- The report introduces a **macro scoring model** that evaluates macroeconomic factors to guide asset allocation. The model's construction involves scoring domestic and global factors such as credit, inflation, and monetary cycles. For February, the model indicates a positive outlook for A-shares, U.S. equities, copper, and crude oil, while downgrading the timing view on 10-year bonds to neutral[29][31][32] - A **U.S. equity timing model** is presented, which monitors indicators like economic momentum and fiscal dependency. The model highlights that the U.S. economy's reduced reliance on fiscal stimulus and improved internal dynamics strengthen the bullish outlook for U.S. equities[33][34][36] - The **gold timing model** suggests a shift from trend-based to range-bound thinking due to microstructural rebalancing and signs of improving U.S. economic momentum. The latest gold timing indicator value is -0.45, showing slight improvement from the previous month[38][41][42] - The **crude oil timing model** reflects a cautious stance, with the oil sentiment index at -0.08, remaining below the neutral threshold. The model attributes this to a lack of strong fundamental drivers for a sustained upward trend in oil prices[39][42][45] - The **asset allocation strategy** uses quantitative signals to allocate risk budgets and adjusts macro risk exposures based on macro factor systems. The strategy achieved a 2.7% return in January, a 10.9% return over the past year, and a maximum drawdown of 2.9%[6][42][43] - The report provides the **optimized asset allocation proportions** for February, with notable changes including an increase in allocations to the CSI 800 (6.7%) and S&P 500 (9.9%), while reducing allocations to 10-year bonds (63.6%) and copper (3.2%)[46]

Market Overview - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.29%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.18%, the STAR 50 gained 1.39%, the CSI 1000 climbed 2.93%, the ChiNext Index went up by 1.86%, and the Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.22% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on February 3 were comprehensive (+5.63%), defense and military industry (+4.42%), machinery and equipment (+3.98%), building materials (+3.52%), and steel (+3.28%). The banking sector was the worst performer, declining by 0.85% [4][5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on February 3 was 25,656 billion, with a net inflow of 9.52 million Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][5] Key Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for January 2026 indicates that the economy is in a data vacuum period, with macro information primarily coming from price and financial data. It is expected that January's prices will recover but with limited elasticity, and while the overall financial volume is not poor, the "opening red" characteristic is not strong [6] - The market anticipates a "credit opening red," but the report suggests that this characteristic is not clearly evident. The demand side remains weak in January [6] - In terms of major assets, the equity market is expected to strengthen in 2026, driven by liquidity, with a structural market characterized by low volatility dividends and technology growth. The bond market is projected to see the 10-year government bond yield fluctuate between 1.5% and 2% [6] Industry Commentary - The Chinese New Year film lineup has been preliminarily set, with attention on companies such as Bona Film Group, Hengdian Film, Happiness Blue Sea, and Damai Entertainment. The report highlights the competition for the New Year’s red envelope among major companies [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in the New Year film lineup and the ongoing AI application debate. Companies in the gaming sector, such as Perfect World, Huatuo, and Gigabit, are noted for their annual forecasts meeting or exceeding expectations, with Giant Network achieving a new high of 10 million daily active users [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][7] Core Insights - The report highlights the initial lineup of films for the Spring Festival, including "Fast Life 3," "Biao Ren," and "Silent Awakening," with a projected box office target of 8 billion for the 2026 Spring Festival, comparable to the 2024 Spring Festival [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of major companies in the film industry, such as Bona Film Group and DMG Entertainment, with estimated box office contributions for the films ranging from 5 billion to 30 billion [2][3] - The report also discusses the ongoing competition among major tech companies in the AI application sector, suggesting a focus on long-term quality investments in companies with strong AI capabilities [2][4] Summary by Sections Spring Festival Film Lineup - Six films have been confirmed for the 2026 Spring Festival, with projected box office revenues as follows: - "Fast Life 3": 2.5 to 3 billion - "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert": over 2 billion - "Silent Awakening": over 1.5 billion - "Star River Dream": approximately 500 million - "Boonie Bears: Year of the Bear": approximately 500 million - "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure": less than 500 million [2][3] Key Companies and Performance - Notable companies involved in the Spring Festival films include: - Bona Film Group, DMG Entertainment, and Happiness Blue Sea, among others [3] - The report also mentions key gaming companies like Perfect World and Century Huatong, with significant profit forecasts for 2025, indicating strong growth potential in the gaming sector [2][4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with a robust AI ecosystem and those benefiting from the acceleration of AI applications, including: - ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba-related companies [2][4] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include: - DeepSeek, Kuaishou, and various media and entertainment firms [2][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][7] Core Insights - The report highlights the initial lineup of films for the Spring Festival, including "Fast Life 3," "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert," and "Silent Awakening," with a projected box office target of 8 billion for the 2026 Spring Festival, comparable to the 2024 Spring Festival [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of major companies in the film industry, predicting box office earnings for the listed films, with "Fast Life 3" expected to earn between 2.5 to 3 billion, "Biao Ren" over 2 billion, and "Silent Awakening" over 1.5 billion [1][3] Summary by Sections Spring Festival Film Lineup - Six films have been confirmed for the 2026 Spring Festival, with projected box office earnings as follows: - "Fast Life 3": 2.5 to 3 billion - "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert": over 2 billion - "Silent Awakening": over 1.5 billion - "Star River Dream": approximately 500 million - "Boon Bear: Year of the Bear": approximately 500 million - "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure": less than 500 million [1][3] Related Companies Overview - The report lists several companies involved in the film industry, including: - Bona Film Group, Dama Entertainment, and Happiness Blue Sea for "Fast Life 3" - Dama Entertainment, China Film, Wanda, and Light Media for "Silent Awakening" - Cat Eye Entertainment and Light Media for "Panda Plan" [1][3][4] Stock Performance and Market Insights - The report provides insights into stock performance for companies related to AI applications and gaming, highlighting significant growth in companies like Giant Network, Perfect World, and Century Huatong, with expected net profits showing substantial year-on-year increases [2][4][5]

Market Overview - On February 2, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.48%, with the CSI 300 down by 2.13%, the STAR Market 50 down by 3.88%, the CSI 1000 down by 3.39%, the ChiNext Index down by 2.46%, and the Hang Seng Index down by 2.23% [5][4] - The best-performing sectors on February 2 were food and beverage (+1.11%) and banking (+0.17%), while the worst-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (-7.62%), steel (-5.93%), basic chemicals (-5.69%), coal (-5.64%), and oil and petrochemicals (-5.51%) [5][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on February 2 was 26,066 billion yuan, with net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 1.907 billion HKD [5][4] Important Recommendations - The report highlights Dongpeng Beverage (605499) as a leading player in the energy drink sector, with clear growth drivers for 2026, including stable growth in specialty drinks, new product launches, and channel deepening [6][6] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 15%-20% in 2026, driven by its core specialty drink products and strong brand positioning [6][7] - Revenue projections for Dongpeng Beverage are estimated at 20,948.13 million yuan for 2025, 26,103.01 million yuan for 2026, and 31,763.13 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding net profit estimates of 4,509.80 million yuan, 5,750.23 million yuan, and 7,141.71 million yuan [6][7] Important Insights - The report discusses the implications of the EU's antitrust actions against Booking, which has seen its market share increase from approximately 60% in 2013 to over 71% in 2023, despite regulatory changes [9][10] - Investment opportunities are identified in Booking's strong market position and its shift towards a merchant model, while competitors like Expedia and Airbnb are adapting their strategies to maintain market relevance [10][10] - Catalysts for growth include the transition to a merchant model, leveraging Google advertising for traffic acquisition, and utilizing membership programs to enhance customer engagement [10][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive [1] Core Insights - The European Union's regulatory efforts have intensified, designating Booking as a "gatekeeper" under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), which prohibits the use of price parity clauses that restrict hotel pricing [2] - Despite antitrust measures aimed at promoting competition, Booking's market share in Europe has increased from approximately 60% in 2013 to over 71% in 2023, indicating a concentration of market power [3] - Booking is strategically shifting its business model from an agency model to a merchant model, allowing it to control pricing and cash flow while avoiding direct legal interference with hotel pricing [4] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The EU's regulatory framework has evolved, with Booking being classified as a "gatekeeper" under the DMA, which mandates compliance with new rules prohibiting price parity clauses [12][18] - The historical context of antitrust actions against Booking highlights a growing trend of regulatory scrutiny across various jurisdictions [25][28] Market Competition - The competitive landscape remains concentrated, with Booking leveraging its dual-sided network effects to maintain its leading position, while competitors like Expedia and Airbnb are exploring differentiated strategies [5][6] - The cancellation of price parity clauses has not led to significant price competition among OTAs, as Booking continues to utilize algorithms and monitoring to maintain pricing control [3][56] Business Model Transformation - Booking's transition to a merchant model allows it to pre-collect payments and manage pricing, effectively circumventing legal restrictions on hotel pricing [4] - The company is investing heavily in Google advertising and membership programs to enhance its market presence and obscure pricing comparisons [4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the competitive dynamics in the OTA market will continue to evolve, with Booking's strong market position likely to persist despite regulatory challenges [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic energy drink market, with stable growth in specialty drinks, new product launches, and channel deepening driving performance beyond expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections Industry Dimension - The functional beverage sector is experiencing high growth potential, with energy drinks expected to maintain a CAGR of over 10% from 2025 to 2029 [22][15] - The energy drink market is projected to reach a retail value of 122.2 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 9.7% year-on-year [22] - The sports drink segment is also on a growth trajectory, with an expected CAGR of 12.2% from 2025 to 2029, reaching 629 billion yuan in 2025 [26] Channel Dimension - The company has expanded its terminal network to over 4.3 million points of sale, enhancing product availability and consumer reach [48] - The deployment of ice cabinets has been increased to optimize product display and stimulate immediate consumption, with an expected 100,000 cabinets in the next 3-5 years [48][49] - Digital supply chain systems are utilized to maintain high turnover rates and enhance sales efficiency across channels [53] Product Dimension - The company's "1+6" product strategy is clear, with energy drinks providing a stable revenue base and new categories like sugar-free tea and instant coffee expected to contribute to future growth [57][61] - The energy drink segment is anticipated to grow by 15%-20% in 2026, supported by strong market penetration and brand loyalty [57] - The company has established a strong brand presence in the hydration segment, with significant market share in key regions and ongoing expansion opportunities [59][60] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.95 billion, 26.10 billion, and 31.76 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.3%, 24.6%, and 21.7% respectively [5][10] - Net profit estimates for the same period are 4.50 billion, 5.75 billion, and 7.14 billion yuan, with growth rates of 35.6%, 27.5%, and 24.2% [5][10] - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 30x for 2026, suggesting a market capitalization of 172.5 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of around 30% [5]