周度视角下的胜率择时策略有望为投资者在不同交易频率下提供有效信号，保证交易 的连贯性、低延时性与执行稳定性；同时可与日度信号相互验证，在标的资产长短期 趋势趋同下相互交叉检验择时入场、控制节奏并管理风险。 自赔率模型上线以来，基本面择时信号出现明显失真且大幅滞后于行情。此类方 法的主要挑战在于：1）相关数据多为低频且存在滞后性（多数宏观指标仅能按月 或季度获取）；2）部分指标或因子的解释稳定性易受政策扰动影响；3）难以有效 识别趋势节奏与技术层面的短期变化，从而在实际应用中缺乏及时的交易执行力。 ❑ 交易性择时近期表现具有较强前瞻性 ❑ 基本面择时为何阶段性失效？ 10 月 21 日至今，看多的子模型个数呈现边际增加的趋势，在中美博弈趋于缓和 的背景下，短期市场做多情绪边际加强，十债主连出现阶段性行情。总体而言， 交易性择时模型在震荡行情中捕捉阶段性趋势有着较为突出的表现。 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 05 日 周频胜率择时模型更新说明 ——利率量化择时系列 核心观点 相关报告 1 《固收+视角下的公募基金三 季报》 2025.11.0 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 专用设备 *ST 和科（002816.SZ） 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 05 日 战略转型与多元化布局，迎接盈利回升新机遇 ——ST 和科首次覆盖报告 投资要点 ❑ 业绩快速回升，转型初见成效，2025 前三季度营收大幅增长 2932.86% ❑ 盈利预测与估值 预计公司 2025-2027 年营收复合增速 41.0%；归母净利润为 1177、5339、8716 万元，2025 年转亏为盈，2026 年至 2027 年，归母净利润同比增加 354%、 63%，3 年 CAGR 为 172.1%。公司正处于关键的战略转型期，随着技术突破和 市场需求的不断增加，公司将在这些高增长业务中持续受益，进一步推动整体业 绩回升。因此，首次覆盖*ST 和科，给予 "买入"评级，预计其将迎来持续的增长 机遇。 ❑ 风险提示 公司经过三十年的深耕，在工业清洗设备领域积累了深厚的技术优势，并通过战 略转型拓展至半导体、储能和新能源等新兴领域。尤其在半导体设备和储能业务 上的布局，为公司未来发展提供了强大的增长动能。2021 年至 2024 年，受外部 环境、行业下游需求、价格竞争加剧以及回 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth with a revenue of 3.918 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.6%, and a net profit of 1.465 billion yuan, up 50.1% year-on-year [1] - The demand for 1.6T products is gradually increasing, and the company is expected to maintain a stepwise growth in performance as customer demand for 1.6T products expands [1][2] - The AI-driven demand for high-end optical modules is leading to rapid growth in sales, with the optical module market projected to grow at an annual rate of 30-35% from 2025 to 2026 [2] - The company is focusing on maintaining technological leadership and expanding global production capacity, with ongoing R&D investments in 1.6T, silicon photonics, and CPO technologies [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.37%, and a net profit of 566 million yuan, up 75.67% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 53.68%, down 5.36 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 38.72%, up 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market and Product Development - The company is actively leveraging the growth opportunities presented by AI and the increasing demand for computing power, launching products such as 800G and 1.6T optical modules [2] - The production of high-speed optical engines is enhancing the company's vertical integration and increasing the unit value of its optical modules [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.14 billion yuan, 3.04 billion yuan, and 4.18 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 51 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]

分析师 文煊 证券研究报告 智领全球，竞逐蓝海 —— 割草机器人行业深度 行业评级：看好 2025年11月5日 分析师 马莉 邮箱 mali@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S12305200700022 分析师 张云添 邮箱 zhangyuntian@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230524020006 邮箱 wenxuan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523120003 核心观点 • 割草机器人是一门好生意：刚需、技术上升期、低渗透空间大。 2 ✓ 割草在欧美是一门文化，在欧美等发达国家，由于土地资源较为丰富、居民生活水平较高，以及受热衷打理草坪的人文环境和家庭理 念影响，草坪文化盛行，此外美国许多州和社区对草坪维护有明确规定，未及时修剪可能面临多重后果。 ✓ 36Kr援引弗若斯特沙利文数据显示全球割草机器人年销量在120-130万台， 由于2021年以来各厂商使用RTK、激光雷达等各种定位 和避障技术发展，割草机迎来了新一波"无边界"的智能化浪潮，智能割草机器人从2022年的2.9万台快速增长至2024年的38万台。 添加标题 ✓ 按照1500-2000万台数据测 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4] Core Insights - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 115% in revenue to 383 million yuan and a return to profitability with a net profit of 106 million yuan [1] - The gross margin improved to 54.76%, reflecting a 25.07 percentage point increase year-on-year, while the net margin reached 27.63% [1] - The company is transitioning to a dual-driven model of "telecom + data communication," capitalizing on opportunities in the AI-driven data communication market [1][2] - The demand for CW laser chips is expected to rise due to increasing penetration of silicon photonics, with sales projected to grow from 800 million USD in 2023 to over 3 billion USD by 2029 [2] - The company has successfully delivered 25G/50G PON optical chip products, optimizing its product structure in the telecom market [3] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 252 million yuan in 2024, 579 million yuan in 2025, 801 million yuan in 2026, and 1.099 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 75%, 130%, 38%, and 37% respectively [5] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 167 million yuan, 264 million yuan, and 418 million yuan, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 271X for 2025 [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow, with operating cash flow projected to increase significantly by 2027 [10]

非经因素导致业绩压力，并表整合效应开始显现 ——国网信通 2025 年三季报点评报告 投资要点 ❑ Q3 扣非归母净利快速增长 2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 56.87 亿元，同比增长 5.98%；实现归母净 利润为 3.51 亿元，同比下降 8.62%；扣非归母净利润为 2.90 亿元，同比微降 1.05%。我们认为，前三季度归母净利润下降主要系税收等非经营性因素所致， 2025 年前三季度所得税影响数约 0.30 亿元，而 24 年同期为 0.01 亿元。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | IT 服务Ⅱ 国网信通(600131) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 05 日 单季度来看，2025 年 Q3 公司实现营业收入 21.63 亿元，同比增长 29.24%，归母 净利润为 0.85 亿元，同比微降 0.26%，扣非归母净利润表现亮眼，Q3 实现 0.84 亿元，同比增长 36.91%，显示出公司核心业务强劲的增长动能。 ❑ 亿力并表效应显现，通信集采受益同业竞争改善 公司于 2025 年上半年完成对亿力科技的收购，并表后公司加快推动建设国内领 先的能源数字化智能化创新企业，提升核心竞争力，扩 ...

回天新材(300041) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 05 日 多点开花，未来可期 ——回天新材 25Q3 点评报告 报告导读 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现营收 32.85 亿元，同比增 8.49%，归母净利润 2.16 亿元，同比增 32.38%。其中 25Q3 单季度公司营收 11.17 亿元，同比增 10.02%， 环比增 1.80%，归母净利润 0.73 亿元，同比增 179.06%，环比增 20.38%，业绩超我们 此前预期。 投资要点 ❑ 多点开花，Q3 业绩超预期 25年前三季度，公司主营胶粘剂产品销量延续增长态势，电子胶、汽车胶、光伏 胶、包装胶四大核心业务销量均实现稳健增长。三季度公司毛利率 23.69%，同 比增 6.97pct，环比增 0.60pct，净利率 6.67%，同比增 3.99pct，环比增 1.15pct。 公司三季度盈利能力有所改善，主要系锂电、包装、光伏胶等产品毛利率提升， 锂电用胶板块因负极胶上量及整体降本成效带动毛利率明显回升；海内外包装胶 业务业绩稳定增长，新品上量，带动毛利率和经营效益提升；光伏胶业务通过灵 活采购降本增效以及新品突破的推动，毛 ...

Market Overview - On November 4, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.41%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.75%, the STAR 50 dropped by 0.97%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.36%, the ChiNext Index fell by 1.96%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.79% [4] - The best-performing sectors on November 4 were banking (+2.03%), utilities (+0.24%), environmental protection (+0.15%), social services (+0.15%), and textiles and apparel (+0.07%). The worst-performing sectors were non-ferrous metals (-3.04%), electric equipment (-2.05%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-1.97%), beauty and personal care (-1.74%), and basic chemicals (-1.57%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on November 4 was 1.9384 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 9.832 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Recommendations - The report focuses on the company Dazhong Laser (002008), highlighting its position as a leader in laser equipment and its potential to leverage the AI wave for growth [5] - The recommendation logic includes the expectation of higher-than-expected capital expenditures (CapEx) from domestic and international tech giants, driving demand for high-end PCB production. Dazhong Laser is positioned to capture significant orders due to its one-stop platform capabilities and diversified development in lithium batteries, 3C, and semiconductors [5] - Key points of expectation include: - High-end PCB demand exceeding expectations, with tech giants revising CapEx upwards or increasing AI layer counts, leading to higher single-machine value and average selling price (ASP) [5] - Rapid penetration into major customer orders due to high-end PCB iterations exceeding expectations [5] - Growth in laser equipment demand driven by the export of lithium batteries and breakthroughs in solid-state batteries [5] - Driving factors include the upward revision of CapEx by overseas CSPs, recovery in downstream industries, and the platform's ability to stabilize market share through comprehensive BOM binding capabilities [5] Financial Projections - The projected revenue for Dazhong Laser from 2025 to 2027 is 17.863 billion yuan, 21.188 billion yuan, and 24.641 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20.93%, 18.61%, and 16.30% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.249 billion yuan, 2.003 billion yuan, and 2.371 billion yuan, with growth rates of -26.24%, 60.32%, and 18.37% respectively. Earnings per share are projected to be 1.21 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.30 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34.76, 21.68, and 18.32 times respectively [5]

洋河股份(002304) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 04 日 持续出清，静待改善 ——洋河股份 25Q3 业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 净利率下滑明显，现金流阶段性承压 1）25Q1-3 毛/净利率同比-2.71/-9.26pct 至 71.1%/21.90%，25Q3 毛/净利率同比- 12.72/-24.84pct 至 53.52%/-11.32%。 2）25Q1-3 销售/管理（含研发）费用率同比+4.62/+2.35pct 至 18.80%/7.71%， 25Q3 销售/管理（含研发）费用率同比+10.23/+3.37pct 至 37.99%/13.85%， 3）25Q3 末合同负债同比变动+14.58 亿元至 64.24 亿元。 4）25Q1-3 经营性净现金流 9.66 亿元，同比-72.06%。25Q3 经营性净现金流 3.50 亿元，同比-75.25%。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 考虑到当前核心产品销售依旧承压，渠道库存消化下报表端表现弱于动销，我们 调整盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年公司收入增速分别为-30.54%/3.19%/6.97%；归 母净利润增速为-40.31%/2.48%/1 ...

❑ 晨光股份披露 2025Q3 业绩 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 文娱用品 晨光股份(603899) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 04 日 2025Q1-3公司实现营业收入173.28亿元，同比+1%；实现归母净利润9.48亿元， 同比-7%；扣非后归母净利润8.02亿元，同比-14%。25Q3单季公司实现营业收入 65.19亿元，同比+8%，实现归母净利润3.91亿元，同比+1%，扣非后归母净利润 3.41 亿元，同比-6% 。 科力普修复、九木蓄力，传统业务 IP 化加持 ——晨光股份 2025Q3 业绩点评报告 ❑ IP+强功能销售表现优异，传统业务产品结构持续优化 传统核心业务： 2025Q3 实现营业收入 25 亿元，同比-3.6%，其中晨光科技（线 上渠道）实现营业收入 4 亿元，同比+3.1%。具体分产品看，书写工具/学生文具 /办公文具分别实现营业收入 9/ 11/ 7 亿元，分别同比-3.3%/ -3.9%/ -2.8%。公司产 品结构积极优化，IP及强功能文具销售优异。海外市场延续稳健增长，我们预计 延续双位数以上增长表现，持续加大东南亚&非洲市场开拓。 ❑ 科力普 Q3 成长显 ...