Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, emphasizing a preference for value investments as the price center is expected to rise in 2026 [1]. Group 1: 2025 Review - Coal production in China showed a trend of high output in the first half of 2025, followed by a decline, with a total of 397.3 million tons produced from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2][16]. - Coal imports decreased significantly, with a total of 38.8 million tons imported from January to October, representing an 11% year-on-year decline [2][24]. - The overall coal consumption remained resilient, with a total of approximately 4.24 billion tons consumed from January to October, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3][44]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The coal price experienced a V-shaped recovery, with prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite rebounding to 816, 1670, and 930 CNY per ton respectively by November 28, 2025 [4]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand balance is maintained through policies that regulate production while ensuring supply stability [5]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - The report forecasts coal consumption to reach 4.95 billion tons in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, driven primarily by demand from the power and chemical sectors [5]. - It is anticipated that coal production will slightly increase to 4.87 billion tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on high-dividend coal companies and those showing signs of recovery from financial distress, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - "Zootopia 2" has exceeded box office expectations, with a total box office forecast of 42.5 billion, driven by strong performance during a weak release period [2] - The film's high screen share of 76.8% and a weekend box office of 7.3 billion indicate strong audience interest, surpassing the first installment of "Zootopia" [2] - The overall film market in 2025 shows a recovery trend, with significant contributions from key holiday periods, particularly the Spring Festival and summer seasons [4][11] Summary by Sections - **Box Office Performance**: As of December 1, 2025, "Zootopia 2" has grossed over 19.4 billion in its first five days, with projections indicating a total of 42.5 billion. The film's performance is compared favorably to previous hits like "Nezha" [2] - **Market Trends**: The film industry has seen a 16.20% year-on-year increase in total box office revenue from January to October 2025, with the Spring Festival box office reaching a record high of 95.14 billion, up 18.69% [4] - **Future Outlook**: The 2026 film market is expected to continue its recovery, with box office predictions ranging from 481 to 580 billion, driven by a strong lineup of films for the New Year and Spring Festival [11][12]

Group 1: Company Insights - The report highlights Ice Wheel Environment (000811) as a leading player in industrial refrigeration equipment, driven by AIDC and nuclear power business growth [5] - The company is experiencing accelerated demand in the data center sector due to a surge in AI computing needs, having served numerous domestic and international data center clients [5] - Revenue projections for Ice Wheel Environment are estimated at 6,959 million, 7,849 million, and 8,637 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.9%, 12.8%, and 10.0% [5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The cosmetics industry is characterized by stability and new developments, with a focus on strong brand groups that can enhance market share and profit realization [6] - The medical beauty sector is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, particularly in segments like PDRN, recombinant collagen, and hair loss treatment, which are anticipated to have a better competitive landscape [6] - The light industry is witnessing a trend of companies accelerating their overseas expansion, leading to higher profit margins and improved competitive dynamics in foreign markets [9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic report indicates that recent fluctuations in the US stock market are attributed to a combination of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and uncertainties in industry outlooks, but the medium-term trend remains positive [7] - The strategy report suggests focusing on large-cap consumer stocks, particularly in food and beverage, travel services, and transportation sectors, as these are expected to perform well in December due to improved liquidity and stable earnings [8] - The light industry report emphasizes the shift from passive to active overseas market exploration, highlighting opportunities in capacity, product, and brand expansion [10]

- The report discusses the microstructure timing model, which evaluates market timing based on microstructure indicators such as informed trader activity. This model identifies market trends by analyzing the activity of informed traders, which is positively correlated with market performance. The report highlights that informed trader activity increased alongside the equity market's rise this week, indicating cautious optimism for the future[17][14] - The report also mentions the BARRA style factor model, which analyzes the performance of various style factors in the equity market. This week, fundamental factors showed reduced dispersion, with a preference for value over growth. High-beta stocks and those with strong short-term momentum outperformed, while small-cap stocks gained favor as large-cap factors retreated[24][25] - The report evaluates the turnover factor, which measures the impact of trading activity on stock performance. This week, the turnover factor showed a positive return of 0.2%, indicating that stocks with higher turnover rates performed better[25] - The momentum factor, which captures the tendency of stocks with strong recent performance to continue performing well, exhibited a significant positive return of 1.0% this week, reflecting strong market momentum[25] - The BP value factor, representing book-to-price ratio, showed a positive return of 0.1%, suggesting that stocks with higher book-to-price ratios were slightly favored by the market[25] - The non-linear size factor and size factor, which measure the impact of market capitalization on stock performance, both showed negative returns of -0.3% and -0.5%, respectively, indicating a shift in market preference towards smaller-cap stocks[25] - The report highlights that the microstructure timing model and style factor models suggest a favorable environment for quantitative strategies, with significant room for growth in quantitative private equity funds, estimated at an additional RMB 400-600 billion[14][24]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is at 49.2%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating economic improvement[1] - The composite PMI output index is at 49.7%, suggesting overall stability in production and business activities[1] - The production index stands at 50.0%, reflecting stability in manufacturing production[2] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.1%, indicating expansion, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs are at 49.8% and 49.4%, respectively, both in contraction territory[1] - New orders index is at 49.2%, showing a low-level recovery in market demand, but still weaker than production levels[3] - New export orders index increased to 47.6%, a rise of 1.7 percentage points, with significant improvements across various sectors[3] Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating rising input costs[7] - The factory price index is at 48.2%, reflecting a narrowing decline in output prices[7] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, a drop of 0.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in non-manufacturing activities[8] - The construction business activity index improved to 49.6%, showing low-level recovery in the construction sector[8] Overall Outlook - The overall economic activity is stabilizing, with expectations for continued upward momentum into December, supporting the annual GDP growth target of around 5%[1][9] - The report highlights the resilience of exports, with a 10.0% year-on-year increase in container throughput at ports in November[4]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the bond market industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the perspective of the first - principle of the bond market, the current short - term and medium - term adjustment trends may resonate, so caution is prioritized at the end of the year. This year's seasonal pattern has clearly failed, and the pre - conditions for the cross - year market are different from previous years, so one should not stick to old methods [1][38]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Observation - **11 - month bond "decline": Reduced sensitivity to positive factors**: Since November, the bond market has shown a "decline", with continuous weakening market sentiment, a persistently bearish market theme, and continuous redemption of liability funds. The news influencing bond pricing has been mostly repetitive, leading institutions to adopt a conservative approach. The relationship between the stock and bond markets has become more complex, with an asymmetric feedback in the stock - bond seesaw effect, indicating the fragility of bond market sentiment [2][13][14]. - **Technical analysis: Potential C - wave adjustment of treasury bond futures at the end of the year**: Since July, TL has shifted from a five - wave upward trend to a three - wave adjustment pattern through an M - top formation, currently in a typical C - wave adjustment. If the decline in the C - wave is assumed to be the same as that in the A - wave, the low point of the C - wave may be around 109 yuan for the TL main contract. The adjustment may last until around the Spring Festival next year [3][19][20]. - **Low bond market volatility: Lack of emotional resonance for the cross - year market**: Despite the increased bond market volatility in the past week, the adjustment amplitude is still small compared to 2023 and 2024. Due to factors such as the stable long - term outlook based on fundamentals, consistent expectations of long - term loose monetary policy, and compressed term spreads, the low - volatility characteristic of interest rates is likely to continue and intensify. The convergence of pure - bond strategies has also led to less differentiation in the returns of pure - bond funds [4][22][26]. - **Institutional behavior: The main theme at the end of the year, with attention to the superposition of three pressures**: In December, institutional behavior may be the main logic driving the bond market. Key factors include the year - end assessment pressure on banks' financial markets, the redemption pressure on the liability side of funds, and the critical node of the rectification of the smoothing mechanism of wealth management trusts. These factors may lead to increased selling pressure in the bond market [5][30][35]. - **Bond strategy: Abandon inertial thinking and approach the cross - year market with caution**: Given the potential resonance of short - term and medium - term adjustment trends, caution is needed at the end of the year. The cross - year market lacks effective driving forces this year, and the end of the "low - volatility + decline" characteristic of the bond market depends on the implementation of fund regulations and loose monetary policy [38]. 3.2 Bond Market Asset Performance The content mainly presents various charts related to bond market asset performance, such as the yield curve of treasury bonds, the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit, and the spread between government - owned development bonds and treasury bonds, but no specific text summary is provided in the given content. 3.3 High - Frequency Entity Tracking - **Price - related**: The content includes charts of the Southern China Agricultural Products Index, international crude oil prices, average wholesale prices of vegetables and fruits, and average wholesale prices of meat, which are used to track price trends [51][52][54]. - **Industry - related**: Charts of the Southern China Industrial Products Index, closing prices of glass and coking coal, blast furnace operating rates, and petroleum asphalt operating rates are presented to monitor industrial conditions [56][62][69]. - **Investment and real estate - related**: Information on the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, the second - hand housing listing price index, and the cumulative value of housing completion area is provided to track the real estate market [66][67][71]. - **Travel and consumption - related**: Charts of subway passenger volume, movie box office revenue, passenger car retail volume, and the number of domestic flights are used to monitor travel and consumption trends [76][81][83].

Core Insights - The overall market rebounded this week, with all major indices closing higher, but none managed to recover the 5-week moving average, indicating that the current range-bound oscillation is not yet fully resolved [1][3][50] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are in their 3rd and 5th weeks of decline from their yearly highs, suggesting that the recent adjustments may not be sufficient [1][3][53] - The Hang Seng Tech Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index have been adjusting for 8 weeks, with a clearer downward space visible [1][3][53] Market Overview - Major indices saw an overall rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 rising by 1.40%, 0.47%, and 1.64% respectively, while growth indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 increased by 3.14%, 3.77%, and 4.50% respectively [11][50] - The ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech 50 showed significant activity, rising by 4.54% and 3.21% respectively, while the North Star 50 saw a slight increase of 0.75% [11][50] Sector Analysis - The market exhibited a trend of "technology strength and defensive weakness," with 25 sectors rising and 5 falling. Notably, the "TMT Four Giants" (Telecommunications, Electronics, Media) saw increases of 8.74%, 6.17%, and 4.16% respectively, while the Computer sector rose by 2.97% [14][51] - Defensive sectors such as Oil & Petrochemicals, Coal, Transportation, and Banking experienced declines of 0.62%, 0.54%, 0.53%, and 0.5% respectively [14][51] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.85 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous week's 2.02 trillion yuan [17] - The main futures contracts (IF, IH, IC) were mostly in backwardation, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [17] Fund Flow - The margin trading balance slightly increased to 2.46 trillion yuan, with a financing buy ratio of 10.4%, up from 9.4% the previous week [26] - The consumer ETF saw a net inflow of 1.7 million yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced a net outflow of 10.3 million yuan [26] Quantitative Analysis - The valuation levels of major market indices are generally in the medium to high range, with the ChiNext Index showing a slightly lower valuation percentile [45] - The current downward energy model indicates that the market's downward energy is at a normal level, without triggering any sell signals [45][48] Future Outlook - Despite the recent rebound, the market remains below the 5-week moving average, and some indices have not yet repaired last week's downward gaps, suggesting that the current range-bound oscillation is not fully resolved [3][53] - The broker index is currently at a critical point, having increased from approximately 70 billion yuan to over 150 billion yuan in the past three months, indicating a potential focus for future directional choices [53][54] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to hold positions during the range-bound oscillation and avoid chasing prices or increasing costs [54] - Specific targets should be set based on the "left foot" of different major indices, with a focus on sectors that are lagging but expanding in market share, such as brokerage firms, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and AI applications [54]

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.3%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.1%, the STAR Market 50 decreased by 0.3%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.4%. The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.1% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday included light industry manufacturing (+1.1%), basic chemicals (+1.0%), oil and petrochemicals (+0.9%), coal (+0.8%), and beauty care (+0.7%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-2.3%), media (-1.4%), retail (-1.2%), computer (-0.8%), and building materials (-0.7%) [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 1,709.6 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.33 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector shows resilience, with opportunities in overseas markets due to improving external demand and enhanced overseas production efficiency. There is a focus on emerging growth areas [5] - Market concerns exist regarding the impact of domestic subsidy reductions on demand, but the report maintains a positive outlook on leading white goods companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are less sensitive to these changes [5] - Key drivers include alleviated industry competition, improving overseas demand, and stable domestic demand [5] Macro Research - The macroeconomic report emphasizes that under the framework of a unified national market, "anti-involution" focuses more on high-quality supply optimization rather than merely clearing excess capacity [6] - The report maintains a consistent viewpoint regarding the significant efforts to combat "involution" [6] Social Services Sector - The social services sector is witnessing a warming in pricing, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption. Travel demand remains robust, and hotel RevPAR is showing signs of recovery [8] - The report highlights a shift in local retail from store closures to inventory adjustments, which is expected to release profits [8] - Key drivers include CPI, same-store sales, and social retail performance [8] Medical Devices Sector - The medical devices sector is viewed positively due to investment opportunities arising from payment policy optimization and growth driven by the Belt and Road Initiative [9] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-value consumables to accelerate growth following the completion of centralized procurement [9] - Key drivers include ongoing innovation in medical devices and the international expansion of the sector [9]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the period from January to October 2025, the profit growth of industrial enterprises was 1.9%, down from 3.2% previously, indicating a gradual recovery trend[1] - In October 2025, profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and rising financial costs[1] - The average two-year profit growth rate for October was -1.2%, showing a further slowdown compared to previous months[1] Group 2: Price and Demand Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in October recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, slightly improved from -2.3% in the previous month, reflecting marginal optimization in market competition[2] - The operating profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.25% from January to October, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year, but decreased to 5.16% in October compared to 5.42% in September[2] Group 3: New Productive Forces - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 8.0% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industrial average by 6.1 percentage points[3] - Equipment manufacturing profits increased by 7.8%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises, with a total profit share of 38.5%[3] Group 4: Traditional Industries Performance - In traditional industries, new productive forces showed positive results, with profits in specific sectors like graphite and carbon products increasing by 77.7% and biochemical pesticides by 73.4%, both significantly above their respective industry averages[4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Industrial profits are expected to gradually recover, with a projected annual growth rate of 3.6% for 2026, supported by steady demand and reduced pressure on industrial growth[7] - The inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 3.7% year-on-year by the end of October 2025, indicating that destocking is not yet complete and further demand strength is needed[8] Group 6: Risk Factors - Insufficient economic recovery momentum could lead to weak industrial demand and pressure on prices, adversely affecting profit recovery[9] - Delays in the implementation of demand-side policies may hinder the expected recovery in industrial profits, particularly if internal growth drivers remain weak[9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on systematically introducing the design logic and usage methods of the "Daily Chart" for convertible bond selection under different style dimensions. It covers a five - style ("Behavior - Valuation - Volatility") three - dimensional logical framework designed with 115 factors, aiming to screen convertible bond targets with future income elasticity and provide quantitative strategy support for asset allocation and fixed - income plus strategies [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Quantitative Perspective on the Convertible Bond Market In the context of "low interest rates - expansion of fixed - income plus strategies - structural slow - bull market", the convertible bond market shows increased trading activity, strengthened equity nature, and diversified capital structures. As of November 26, 2025, the market had a stock of 566.59 billion yuan and 412 bonds. Traditional bond - selection methods are difficult to capture short - term driving forces, so a multi - factor framework for daily tracking is needed [12]. 2. Style Perspective on the Convertible Bond Multi - Factor System 2.1 Five Categories of Style Factors Introduction A multi - dimensional system with 115 daily - frequency factors was constructed. The five style dimensions are valuation, momentum, volatility, liquidity, and price - volume correlation. Valuation factors measure price relative to fundamentals; momentum factors measure price trends; volatility factors measure risk and option features; liquidity factors measure tradability; and price - volume correlation factors measure market sentiment and structural games [13][17]. 2.2 Correlation between Five Categories of Style Factors and Returns The effectiveness test shows that valuation factors have stable positive explanatory power; volatility and liquidity factors perform well in trading - type markets; momentum and price - volume correlation factors show "reverse momentum" characteristics [17]. 3. Style Dimension of the Convertible Bond "Daily Chart" The "Daily Chart" is updated after the market closes. It presents potential convertible bonds from five style factors, with color - coded columns for easy identification of valuation, weekly performance, and style differences. It serves as a post - market observation tool, a reference for actual trading, and a risk - control and monitoring tool [3][19].