Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216%-231%. After considering perpetual bonds, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315.2%-336.5%. This strong performance is primarily due to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] - The scale effect of pulp production is becoming evident, with the company's pulp production capacity in Guangxi contributing to a rapid reduction in production costs and an increase in the self-supply ratio of pulp, which are key factors driving the company's performance above expectations [2] - The pulp segment is contributing significantly to profits, while the waste paper segment is showing improvement in profitability. Despite cultural and white card paper prices being at historical lows, the company is still able to generate profit growth due to its self-produced pulp advantages [3] - The company continues to expand its pulp production capacity, with total pulp capacity reaching 23.5 million tons by FY25. The focus on increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials is expected to further enhance profitability. The company has plans to build additional chemical pulp production facilities in Chongqing and Tianjin, with expected production increases in the coming years [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 72.67 billion yuan, 74 billion yuan, and 74.76 billion yuan for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 2%, and 1%. The attributable net profit is expected to be 4.08 billion yuan, 4.41 billion yuan, and 5.04 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of 131%, 8%, and 14%. The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.9, 8.3, and 7.2 [4][9]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 电池 欣旺达(300207) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 08 日 吉利诉讼和解落地，阴霾尽扫前路坦荡 ——欣旺达点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 事件： 吉利旗下威睿电动与欣旺达动力，因 2021 年 6 月至 2023 年 12 月期间向 其交付的电芯存在质量问题并给其造成损失为由，于 2025 年 12 月底向浙江省宁 波市中级人民法院提起诉讼，要求欣旺达动力履行支付赔偿金等款项的义务。诉 讼诉求判令被告赔偿原告损失 23.14 亿元人民币，以及按照全国银行间同业拆借 中心公布的贷款市场报价利率计算的自起诉之日起计算至被告实际支付之日止 的利息。 2 月 6 日，公司公告：双方本着实事求是、求同存异的原则，经充分沟通，一致 同意通过友好协商的方式解决纠纷并签订《和解协议》。《和解协议》中，对上市 公司利润和现金流有影响的条款主要有以下几条（非影响条款本报告未摘录，读 者可自行参阅公告）： （一）更换动力电池包相关的费用按实际成本认定，根据实际发生金额经双方核 对后确认，双方商定按比例分担该实际发生金额，同时，事件处理后的相关电池 包全部归乙方所有。 （二）截至 2025 年 ...

证券研究报告 印尼意在稳价，节后有望开启 补库行情 ——煤炭行业周报（2月第1周） 行业评级：看好 2026年2月8日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收跌，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年2月6日，本周中信煤炭行业收跌0.61%，沪深300指数下跌1.33%，跑赢沪深300指数0.72个百分点。全板块整周9只股价上涨，27 只下跌，1只持平。陕西黑猫涨幅最高，整周涨幅为12.88%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月30日-2026年2月5日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为733万吨，周环比减少3.3%，年同比增加35.9%。其中，动力煤周日 均销量较上周减少2.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少8.2%，无烟煤销量较上周减少3.5%。截至2026年2月5日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为740万吨，周环比减少1.7%，年同比增加 33.2%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2273万吨，周环比增加2.2%，年同比减少23.8%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量 ...

投资要点 行业评级: 看好(维持) 分析师：冯翠婷 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 传媒 传媒 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 08 日 周报：完美世界《异环》三测超预期，AI 应用重点关注字节/漫剧 ——行业点评报告 执业证书号：S1230525010001 fengcuiting@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1《周报：《飞驰人生 3》等春节 档阵容初定，大厂春节红包抢夺 入口》2026.02.02 2《重仓股配置比例下降，前期 涨幅高的收益确认，AI 应用标 的配置提升》2026.01.26 3《周报：AI 应用快速调整期后 已基本企稳》2026.01.25 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 上周（2 月 2 日~2 月 6 日）传媒板块周跌幅-3.24%，主要系受美股 AI 大模型吞 噬论影响普跌。我们上周周报的春节档相关标的如横店影视（周涨幅 +30.98%）、幸福蓝海（+7.45%）、博纳影业（+7.40%），以及《异环》三测超预 期、我们前期重点推荐的完美世界（+3.87%）录得不错的周涨幅。关于 AI 大模 型吞噬论，我们引用 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the upward trend in Moutai's batch price, indicating a potential rebound in the liquor sector, particularly led by Guizhou Moutai [2][11] - The consumer environment is improving, with high-end consumption showing signs of recovery, driven by the wealth effect from the stock market [2][11] - The report highlights the positive performance of mass consumer products, particularly in the beverage and snack sectors, with significant month-on-month and year-on-year improvements in January data [3][13] Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a weekly increase of +4.31%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index, which decreased by -1.27% and -1.33%, respectively [1][19] - Specific segments such as liquor (+5.29%), soft drinks (+4.71%), and beer (+4.48%) showed strong performance, while health products experienced a decline of -1.36% [1][19] Sector Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: The report recommends focusing on leading brands like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gu Qingongjiu, anticipating strong sales during the Spring Festival [4][12] - **Mass Consumer Products**: The report suggests investing in snacks, dairy, and beverages, highlighting companies like Wei Long, Salted Fish, and East Peak Beverage as key recommendations due to favorable cost advantages and growth potential [4][13][15] - **Dairy Products**: The report recommends focusing on upstream dairy farms like You Ran Mu Ye and downstream brands such as New Dairy and Yili, anticipating a dual boost from raw milk and beef cycles [4][16] Key Data Tracking - The report tracks significant price movements in key products, including the batch price of Moutai reaching 1760 yuan, indicating strong demand in the high-end market [2][11][53] - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector is reported at 21.79 times, with liquor at 19.44 times, indicating a relatively attractive valuation [25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - North American cloud providers are experiencing a significant increase in capital expenditures, driven by AI applications and cloud services, despite a decline in ROIC [1][3] - The capital expenditure for the four major North American cloud providers reached $112.63 billion in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.36%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus forecast by 4.3% [3][7] - AI applications are still in their early stages, with token consumption growing exponentially and creating new supply while empowering core internet platform businesses [2][28] Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure - North American cloud providers are in an upward capital expenditure cycle, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.97% from 2022 to 2025 [7] - Amazon's capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be $131.06 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 68.76%, and expected to exceed $200 billion in 2026 [10] - Microsoft's capital expenditure for FY2026 is expected to grow at a rate of 58.35% compared to FY2025 [11] - Google's capital expenditure for 2025 reached $91.45 billion, a 74.07% increase from 2024, with projections for 2026 between $175 billion and $185 billion [14][16] - Meta's capital expenditure for 2025 was $71.46 billion, with an expected increase to between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026, reflecting a growth of 60.93% to 88.91% [19] Revenue Growth - The cloud business revenue for the three major cloud providers (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) reached $886.15 billion in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.97%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus forecast by 4.97% [23] - Microsoft’s cloud revenue in Q4 2025 was $329.07 billion, with Azure revenue growing by 39% year-on-year [23] - Google Cloud revenue for Q4 2025 was $176.64 billion, a 47.8% increase year-on-year, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $70 billion [24] - Amazon AWS revenue for Q4 2025 was $335.79 billion, a 23.6% year-on-year increase [24] AI Applications - AI applications are creating new products and empowering core business functions, with significant growth in both consumer (2C) and business (2B) applications [28][29] - The number of active users for AI products from major tech companies has seen substantial growth, with Google Gemini reaching 750 million monthly active users in Q4 2025 [30] - AI is enhancing core business operations through improved recommendation systems, leading to increased user retention and engagement [33] Cash Flow and Profitability - The strong cash generation capabilities of core businesses and cloud services support capital expenditures, with operating profit margins for AWS and Microsoft Cloud between 35% and 45% [35] - Despite high profitability, the free cash flow for Google, Microsoft, and Amazon decreased year-on-year in Q4 2025, indicating a potential concern regarding the sustainability of capital expenditure growth [37]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - In the context of an upward - shifted market volatility center and increased external uncertainties, adopt a "pre - holiday defense, structural balance" strategy, use a dumbbell - style allocation of value and technology to smooth portfolio fluctuations, and dynamically allocate high - quality growth targets with fully adjusted valuations and clear performance growth paths to capture structural flexibility from pricing misalignments [1] - The convertible bond market is in a high - volatility and low - certainty environment. The "pre - holiday defense, structural balance" should be the core strategy, using a dumbbell - style allocation of value and technology to smooth portfolio fluctuations [2][11] - As the Spring Festival approaches, investors should be prudent, mainly adopt the dumbbell strategy, and focus on low - volatility dividend - paying bonds such as "Zhongte" and "Tian 23" [3][14] - With the resonance of external volatility and risk - aversion sentiment, the valuation of convertible bonds is rationally returning. Low - volatility and value - style bonds are preferred for cross - holiday risk - aversion [4][15] - In the future, switch from "allocation thinking" to "trading thinking", adopt the "dumbbell strategy", focus on defensive varieties at one end and high - quality growth targets at the other, while strengthening the exploration of alpha premium and setting strict risk - control thresholds [18][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - In the past week (2026/02/02 - 2026/02/06), the convertible bond market was weak and highly volatile. The large - cap index (0.77%) outperformed the mid - cap (0.25%) and small - cap (- 0.04%) indexes. The mid - price index performed well (0.96%), while high - price convertible bonds were weak (- 1.19%) [2][11] - The performance of various convertible bond indexes in different time frames is presented in Table 1, showing significant differences in trends [22] 1.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - In the past week, the convertible bond market was deeply adjusted. Only "Huicheng Convertible Bond" in the environmental protection sector had a positive return (+ 0.90%), and the value - style showed strong resilience, such as "Zhongte Convertible Bond" with a slight decline of 0.02% [3][14] - The technology industry, represented by software services, performed poorly. For example, "Xinzhi Convertible Bond" fell - 28.29% in a week, while the special steel and electrical equipment sectors had defensive advantages [3][14] 1.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Due to the Fed's balance - sheet reduction expectations and the approaching Spring Festival, the convertible bond market has seen increased risk - aversion sentiment and active valuation compression. Low - volatility and value - style bonds are more resistant to declines, while volume - price and momentum - style bonds are weaker [4][15] 1.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Not provided in the content other than the performance of high - price, mid - price, and low - price convertible bond indexes in the market conditions section

保持乐观，持股过节 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 全球风险偏好的共振下行或已近尾声，节前有望迎来最佳布局窗口期，重点关注小微 盘。 ❑ 全球资产的共振调整走到什么阶段了？ 黄金隐含波动率大幅回落，对全球风险偏好的外溢冲击有望逐步下降。过去一段 时间，全球权益资产及大宗商品共振调整，虽然市场总结出诸多利空因素，如鹰 派联储主席引发流动性收缩担忧，谷歌、亚马逊的超预期资本开支引发盈利能力 下滑担忧等，但这些可能都并非市场波动的底层逻辑，例如我们看到美债市场并 未因鹰派主席提名而大幅波动，英伟达等逻辑上受益于资本开支增加的股票也同 步调整。本质上，我们认为这轮调整主要是由贵金属交易过热后的大幅下挫所引 发的全球共振去杠杆，因此何时调整结束，也应主要观察贵金属何时能够企稳。 目前来看，黄金在经历前期巨幅波动后，在 2 月 5 日开启的第二轮回落中并未继 续创新低，黄金隐含波动率也已经从 1 月 29 日的 46%大幅回落至 2 月 6 日的 34%，这可能表明市场对黄金后续走势的预期开始趋于平稳。因此，我们倾向于 认为，市场风险偏好下行最快的阶段已经过去，全球资产的共振调整已近尾声。 ❑ 节前最后一周，进攻还是防守？ ...

1）从"虚拟货币"到"数字资产"：此次监管范围从虚拟货币扩展至虚拟货币 和现实世界资产代币化（RWA）。 2）从"境内禁止"到"跨境监管"：除再次重申境内虚拟货币相关业务活动属 于非法金融活动外，也对此前市场关注的一些问题明确表态：未经同意，境内外 任何单位和个人不得在境外发行挂钩人民币的稳定币；境外单位和个人不得向境 内主体提供 RWA 相关服务，但经业务主管部门依法依规同意，依托特定金融基 础设施开展的相关业务活动除外；未经同意，境内主体及其控制的境外主体不得 在境外发行虚拟货币。 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 非银金融 非银金融 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 08 日 中国 RWA 监管框架落地，香港 Web3 产业迎新变局 投资要点 3）从"业务管控"到"生态治理"：堵漏补缺，明确将持续整治"挖矿"活 动，加强经营主体登记和广告管理（禁止名称和经营范围含"稳定币"、 "RWA"等字样）；且在重申投资者风险自担的基础上，新增对"明知或应知" 境外主体非法向境内提供服务仍提供协助的境内单位和个人的责任追究。 ❑ 投资观点：RWA 作为一种可为实体经济融资的方式，此次政策新规通过明确监 管要求和流程， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The key factors affecting the inter - bank capital situation during the Spring Festival holiday are the change in M0. The 9 - day Spring Festival in 2026 may lead to greater cash leakage and slower cash return to banks, resulting in a lower excess reserve level in the commercial banking system [2][12]. - The cash leakage (M0 month - on - month increase) caused by residents' cash withdrawals during the Spring Festival may exceed 1.7 trillion yuan, and with the 500 - billion - yuan 6M term repurchase "maturity - placement" misalignment, the pre - Spring Festival capital gap may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan [3][13]. - The central bank started to issue 14 - day reverse repurchase on February 5, and the start date and amount of the reverse repurchase across the Spring Festival holiday met expectations. The current low certificate of deposit spread and credit spread fully reflect the market expectation of stable and loose funds and remaining carry trade space [1][4]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, more attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and the appreciation of the RMB. The 9 - day holiday may cause residents to return to work later, and RMB appreciation may consume commercial bank excess reserves [4][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 The Focus on the Capital Situation around the Spring Festival Holiday - The main factor affecting the inter - bank capital situation during the Spring Festival is the change in M0. The 9 - day Spring Festival in 2026 will lead to greater cash leakage and slower cash return to banks, resulting in lower excess reserves in the commercial banking system [2][12]. - The cash leakage (M0 month - on - month increase) during the Spring Festival may exceed 1.7 trillion yuan, and combined with the 500 - billion - yuan 6M term repurchase "maturity - placement" misalignment, the pre - Spring Festival capital gap may exceed 2.2 trillion yuan [3][13]. - The central bank issued 14 - day reverse repurchase on February 5, and the start date and amount of the reverse repurchase across the Spring Festival holiday met expectations. The current low spreads reflect the market expectation of stable and loose funds [1][4]. - Attention should be paid to the speed of cash return to banks and RMB appreciation during the holiday [4][15]. 3.2 Narrow - sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: The central bank conducted peak - shaving and valley - filling operations. From February 2 to February 6, the net issuance of pledged reverse repurchase was - 756 billion yuan. Medium - and long - term liquidity: The 3M term repurchase was renewed with an excess of 100 billion yuan [16]. 3.2.2 Institution's Lending and Borrowing Situations - Capital supply (lenders): The net lending of large - scale banks reached a record high. Capital demand (borrowers): The absolute financing balance was high, and the relative leverage ratio increased [22][34]. 3.2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation - Capital volume and price: The volume was abundant, and the price was stable. The capital sentiment index showed a gradual easing trend [42][45]. 3.2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The cost of interest rate swaps decreased slightly, and the spread between CDs and IRS remained at a low level [49]. 3.3 Government Bonds 3.3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - The net payment of government bonds next week will increase significantly. The net payment in the past week was 460.4 billion yuan, and it is expected to be 643.7 billion yuan next week [52]. 3.3.2 Government Bond Maturity Structure - The report presents the issuance and proportion of government bonds with different maturities in 2024, 2025, and 2026, including treasury bonds and local government bonds [57][58]. 3.4 Certificates of Deposit 3.4.1 Absolute Yield - The report shows the SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield curve and their changes compared with the previous week [62]. 3.4.2 Issuance and Stock Situations - As of February 6, the issuance and stock structures of certificates of deposit of different types of banks are presented, including the issuance and stock amounts and proportions of different maturities [66][67]. 3.4.3 Relative Valuation - The report analyzes the spreads of certificates of deposit, including the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield, and their quantiles since 2020 [69].