Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.478 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 358 million yuan, down 4.14% [1] - The company is focusing on its AI sleep strategy, with AI product revenue reaching 121 million yuan, representing over threefold growth year-on-year [2] - The company is expanding its overseas market, achieving 109 million yuan in foreign revenue, a 73.97% increase [2] - The gross margin remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 0.64 percentage points, while sales expense ratio increased by 3.62 percentage points due to higher marketing investments [3] - The company expects to benefit from the old-for-new subsidy program, with projected revenues of 5.774 billion yuan, 6.197 billion yuan, and 6.698 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.06%, 7.32%, and 8.09% [4] Revenue Drivers - The core mattress category showed stable growth with H1 2025 revenue of 1.256 billion yuan, a 1.25% increase [2] - The company launched the AI smart mattress T11+ and upgraded its tidal algorithm, enhancing its technological and ecological positioning [2] - The company has developed a smart service system and continues to operate a high-end membership club, increasing customer loyalty with over 3.92 million registered members [2] Profitability and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 771 million yuan, 842 million yuan, and 922 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.30X, 14.92X, and 13.64X [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic industrial temperature control equipment sector, with significant growth in performance during the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 1.264 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.04%, and a net profit of 125 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 466.71% [1] - The company's power electronic device temperature control products generated revenue of 819 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.48%, with a gross margin of 20.01%, up 5.02 percentage points [2] - The company is expanding its temperature control business in data centers and semiconductor manufacturing, leveraging its liquid cooling technology to meet the increasing demand for cooling solutions [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 288 million yuan, 389 million yuan, and 486 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.70, 2.29, and 2.86 yuan [5] - The forecasted revenue for 2025 is 2.960 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 37.05% compared to 2024 [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 14.11% in 2025 to 17.23% in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes the transformation and elevation of the company under Haier's leadership, focusing on integrated solutions and embodied intelligence [2][12] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic robot manufacturer, with a strong emphasis on upgrading from industrial robots to comprehensive solutions [7][12] - Financial forecasts indicate a significant recovery in profitability, with expected net profits turning positive in 2025 and substantial growth in subsequent years [3][7] Summary by Sections Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3,357 million, 3,543 million, 3,798 million, and 4,153 million respectively, with growth rates of -0.9%, 5.5%, 7.2%, and 9.3% [3] - Expected net profit for 2025E is 13 million, with a significant increase to 84 million in 2026E and 190 million in 2027E, reflecting growth rates of 567.3% and 127.6% respectively [3] - Earnings per share are projected to be -0.4, 0.0, 0.1, and 0.3 for the years 2024A to 2027E [3] Business Overview - The company is a leader in industrial automation and robotics, with a focus on elevator controllers and SCARA robots, holding the second position globally in elevator controllers and fourth in domestic SCARA robot shipments [20][25] - The report highlights the company's strategy to capture structural demand in the elevator industry, particularly in urban rail and renovation projects, with a projected growth in elevator procurement in 2025 [29][34] - The company is also expanding into semiconductor robotics, targeting high-end markets with low domestic production rates [41][42] Haier's Empowerment - Haier's acquisition is expected to enhance the company's product offerings and financial performance, leveraging Haier's industrial internet ecosystem to provide integrated manufacturing solutions [12][51] - The partnership is anticipated to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs through shared supply chains and management practices [63][66] - The report notes that Haier's investment of 12.19 billion yuan in new shares will bolster the company's liquidity and strategic initiatives [67] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 290% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with price-to-earnings ratios projected at 860, 129, and 57 for the respective years [7][12] - The report indicates that the company's gross margin is expected to improve, as it benefits from Haier's global supply chain and operational efficiencies [66]

证券研究报告 | 深度研究 | ESG 及绿色金融 股权制衡，权利保护：公募基金 ESG 尽责管理新范式（二） 核心观点 资本多决权异化是造成中小股东权利保护困境的首要原因。适当的股权制衡既能保留 股权相对集中的优势，又能有效抑制大股东对上市公司利益的侵害。公募基金尽责管 理在董事会治理层面建议关注超额委派和董事会成员独立性，关联交易层面可结合股 权结构和监管处罚进行风险识别，财务公司问题可聚焦受限资金规模和资金使用效率。 在整体策略上，我们建议以公募基金为代表的机构投资者采取"定量与定性"并重的 识别思路和参与策略。 ❑ 股权制衡视角下的中小股东权利保护 资本多决权异化是造成中小股东权利保护困境的首要原因。适当的股权制衡既能 保留股权相对集中的优势，又能有效抑制大股东对上市公司利益的侵害。A 股实 证数据显示，适当的股权制衡度很好地减少了股东掏空。 ❑ 股权制衡三大议题：董事会治理、关联交易和财务公司 公募基金在应对上述尽责管理议题时可重点关注如下方面：董事会治理层面关注 超额委派和董事会成员独立性，关联交易层面可结合股权结构和监管处罚进行风 险识别，财务公司问题聚焦受限资金规模和资金使用效率。 ❑ 指标追 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After two years of debt reduction, significant achievements have been made. Local debts are accelerating towards the on - balance - sheet, with fiscal policy taking over from urban investment in 2025. Urban investment focuses on exiting platforms, stabilizing leverage, adjusting structure, and reducing costs to further mitigate risks. After 2028, urban investment bonds are likely to continue to be redeemed at par. Currently, the spread of urban investment bonds is at a low level, and the cost - effectiveness of undifferentiated sinking is not high. It is recommended to select allocation directions based on risk indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 How Has the Overall Pattern of Local Debt Changed After Two Years of Debt Reduction? - The "front door" is opened wide and the "back door" is blocked, with local debts accelerating towards the on - balance - sheet. Since 2019, the issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, with an annual growth rate of over 15%. The growth rate of urban investment debt has shown a fluctuating downward trend in the past decade, reaching a record low of 3.8% in 2024. By the end of 2024, the proportion of on - balance - sheet government debt had risen to 43.72% [2][15]. - In 2024, the expansion of urban investment slowed down, and in 2025, fiscal policy took over from urban investment. In 2020, the incremental local debt (urban investment + local special bonds) was 10.63 trillion yuan, but the combined increment has not exceeded 10 trillion yuan since then. In 2025, the fiscal deficit increased by 1.6 trillion yuan compared to the previous year. The incremental debt of local governments and urban investment platforms is expected to approach 10 trillion yuan, and the proportion of on - balance - sheet government debt may exceed 45% by the end of the year [3][16]. 3.2 How to View the Urban Investment Risks After 2028? - Risk prevention has become more extensive, evolving from preventing defaults of urban investment bonds to preventing risks of state - owned enterprises. Urban investment is likely to become a state - owned enterprise under the supervision of local state - owned assets supervision and administration commissions, and is unlikely to default on its bonds [20][21]. - From the perspective of assets and liabilities, it is still difficult to completely separate urban investment from local governments. Urban investment still holds a large amount of public - welfare or quasi - public - welfare assets, and the relationship between them remains close [21]. - From the perspective of liquidity, the probability of risk is reduced. After the clearance of hidden debts and the exit from platforms, banks and insurance may open up financing channels for urban investment, and the actual risk may decline [22]. 3.3 What Are the Differences in Urban Investment Financing Among Provinces? 3.3.1 Overall Tightening, with Slight Differences Between Key and Non - key Provinces - The primary issuance review has not been relaxed, and it is difficult for urban investment to increase new financing. Since March 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds has turned negative. Key provinces have a more significant net outflow, while some non - key provinces such as Shandong and Guangdong still have new increases [23]. 3.3.2 The Proportion of Bank Loans Has Increased, and Some Provinces Are Seeking Increases in Non - standard Financing - As of the end of March 2025, the proportion of bank loans has increased in 18 provinces, with 8 provinces including Ningxia and Hainan having an increase of over 3 percentage points. In non - key provinces, Anhui and Henan have an increase in the proportion of non - standard financing of over 1 percentage point [25]. 3.4 Which Regions Are Facing Increasing Debt Risks? 3.4.1 Macro - level: At the Minsky Moment, the Interest Coverage Ratios of 10 Provinces and Cities Are Less Than 1 - Due to the decline in land sales, although local interest payments have decreased, as of Q1 2025, the government fund revenues of 10 provinces and cities, including Yunnan and Guangxi, have an interest coverage ratio of less than 1 for full - scale debt interest [29][33]. 3.4.2 Micro - level: The Risks in Some Provinces Have Worsened - The debt risks in Henan, Jilin, Anhui, and Hubei have increased compared to before debt reduction. Shandong's overall risk still deserves attention [29]. - In terms of the proportion of risk urban investment platforms, 20 provinces have improved their debt risks, 7 have remained unchanged, and 4 have increased their risks [30]. 3.5 Which Regions Have Achieved Remarkable Results in Debt Reduction? 3.5.1 Debt Reduction Progress - The progress of hidden debt resolution has exceeded half. Jilin, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang have at least over 10 cities or districts announcing the full clearance of hidden debts [47]. 3.5.2 Stock Bond Scale - As of August 28, 2025, the stock of urban investment bonds was 15.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 84.321 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year. Jiangsu, Hunan, Tianjin, and Guizhou have the largest reduction in the stock of urban investment bonds [53]. 3.5.3 Interest Payments - The interest payments of urban investment bonds in some economically strong provinces and provinces receiving more debt reduction support have decreased significantly. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Hunan, and Shandong have a large decline in interest payments [56]. 3.6 How to View Urban Investment Bonds from the Perspective of Risk Premium? - By constructing a short - term risk indicator (proportion of risk urban investment platforms) and a medium - long - term risk indicator (risk qualification evaluation score), provinces are classified as follows: - Both indicators cross the line (proportion of risk platforms > 20%, risk qualification evaluation score < 40): Guangxi, Tianjin, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Jilin, Yunnan, Qinghai, Guizhou. Caution is needed for these regions [59]. - One of the two indicators crosses the line: Shandong, Tibet, Ningxia, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Shaanxi. It is recommended to adopt sinking + duration control when exploring returns in these 6 provinces [59][61]. - Neither indicator crosses the line: Shanghai, Beijing, Shanxi, Hainan, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hebei, Jiangsu, Xinjiang, Anhui, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, Liaoning. The overall risk in these regions is relatively low, but the spread is generally less than 50bp, with limited room for exploration [61].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance but is actively incubating new businesses to empower long-term growth [1] - The company reported a revenue of 8.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.1 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on product upgrades and new business development, particularly in the electric tools and smart electrical lighting sectors, which show potential for growth despite current market challenges [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from electric connection business was 3.662 billion yuan, down 5.37% year-on-year, while the smart electrical lighting business generated 4.094 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.78% year-on-year [2][3] - The new energy business achieved a revenue of 386 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 33.52% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in this segment [4] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 42.33%, a slight decrease of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year, but showed a recovery in Q2 2025 with a gross margin of 43.51% [5] Business Segments - The electric tools business has established a comprehensive channel system covering over 30,000 stores, indicating a strong market presence and growth potential [2] - The smart electrical lighting segment is enhancing product capabilities through continuous R&D and strategic partnerships with home decoration companies, which is expected to improve market penetration [3] - The new energy segment is expanding its product ecosystem and channel coverage, focusing on home charging stations and energy storage solutions [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 17.026 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.16%, and net profits of 4.325 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.24% [12] - The company is projected to maintain a stable gross margin and improve profitability through product structure optimization and lean management practices [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 889 million yuan in H1 2025, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40 million yuan, down 39.7% [1] - The revenue from baking and cooked dishes showed positive growth, while new retail channels experienced significant growth [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its product lines and sales channels, particularly in the B2B and new retail sectors, to increase revenue [5] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the main food and snack categories accounted for 47% and 22% of revenue, respectively, generating 410 million yuan and 200 million yuan, both showing declines of 9.1% and 6.6% year-on-year due to market competition and product lifecycle impacts [2] - The baking and frozen prepared dishes categories, which accounted for 23% and 7% of revenue, respectively, generated 210 million yuan and 70 million yuan, with increases of 11.0% and 67.3% year-on-year [2] Sales Model Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from the distribution and direct sales models was 450 million yuan and 430 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -6.4% and +5.3% [3] - The increase in direct sales revenue was primarily driven by partnerships with major retail chains and a significant rise in online sales, which grew by 44.9% year-on-year to 40 million yuan [3] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 23.6%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, attributed to the faster growth of lower-margin product categories [3] - The net profit margin fell to 4.0%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, due to increased expenses related to new retail channels and online sales [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 1.94 billion yuan, 2.10 billion yuan, and 2.26 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 3.6%, 8.5%, and 7.4% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 80 million yuan, 100 million yuan, and 110 million yuan for the same period, with a slight decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company achieved a robust revenue growth of HK$ 10.316 billion in 2025H1, representing an 18.5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of HK$ 706 million, up 9.8% [1] - The company continues to focus on capital market operations and international business expansion, aiming to enhance profitability through supply chain resilience and optimized pricing strategies [5] - The company is expected to benefit from its unique position as a platform and industry integrator in the tobacco export market, with projected revenues of HK$ 14.7 billion, HK$ 15.9 billion, and HK$ 17.1 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 12%, 8%, and 8% respectively [6] Revenue Breakdown - The tobacco leaf import business generated HK$ 8.399 billion in revenue, a 23.5% increase, with a volume of 97,900 tons, up 2.5%. However, gross profit declined by 7.7% due to rising costs [2] - Tobacco leaf export revenue reached HK$ 1.156 billion, a 25.9% increase, with a volume of 38,500 tons, up 12.7%, and gross profit surged by 124.1% due to market expansion and pricing strategy optimization [2] - Cigarette export revenue was HK$ 552 million, a slight increase of 0.8%, with a volume of 1.019 billion sticks, down 7.9%. Gross profit increased by 16.8% due to enhanced self-operated channel development [3] Regional Performance - The company's Brazilian operations saw a significant decline, with tobacco leaf export revenue dropping to HK$ 195 million, down 50.3%, and volume decreasing by 34.8% due to adverse weather conditions affecting production [4] - New tobacco product exports also faced challenges, with revenue falling to HK$ 15 million, down 66.5%, and volume down 65.4%, primarily due to geopolitical conflicts and regulatory changes in target markets [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HK$ 944 million, HK$ 1.090 billion, and HK$ 1.224 billion for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 11%, 15%, and 12% respectively [6] - The expected P/E ratios for the same period are 31.11X, 26.95X, and 24.00X, reflecting the company's growth potential and market position [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current interest rate cut expectations and challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve are favorable for gold. The likelihood of a rate cut is high as long as macroeconomic data does not exceed expectations [4] - This round of rate cuts is different from previous ones as it occurs in a high inflation environment, which is expected to lead to a rapid decline in real interest rates, benefiting gold prices. The report notes that the PCE core inflation in the U.S. was at 2.88% in July, with an upward trend [4] - In the short term, a bull market for metals is anticipated, with ample liquidity supporting gold prices. In the medium term, gold is seen as a safe haven if sentiment shifts, further enhancing its value [4] - The long-term narrative for the gold bull market is driven by declining dollar credibility, which may continue under the new policies of the Trump administration [4] - The report suggests that gold stocks have been underperforming since April, but adjustments may have been sufficient, leading to a positive outlook for gold stocks in September [4] Summary by Sections Short-term Outlook - A bull market for metals is expected, with liquidity supporting gold prices [4] Medium-term Outlook - Gold is positioned as a safe haven if other metals show a downturn [4] Long-term Outlook - The decline in dollar credibility is a key driver for the ongoing gold bull market [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main lines of gold stocks: 1. High-cost gold mines with significant profit improvement potential, such as Shandong Gold H-shares [4] 2. Future growth potential in equity targets like WanGuo Gold and ZhaoJin Mining [4] 3. Stable operators with growth expectations, such as ShanJin International and ChiFeng Gold [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Macro Scoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic factors to generate scores for various asset classes, reflecting their relative attractiveness under current macroeconomic conditions [16][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates global macroeconomic factors such as global monetary conditions, global inflation, and global economic sentiment. - Each factor is scored based on its current trend (e.g., uptrend or downtrend) and its historical relationship with asset performance. - The scores are aggregated to produce a final macro score for each asset class, including equities, commodities, and bonds [16][18]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying asset classes with higher expected returns under specific macroeconomic conditions. For example, it currently favors commodities like copper and gold over equities due to the upward trend in global inflation and monetary easing [16][18]. 2. Model Name: US Equity Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model assesses the timing for US equity investments based on macroeconomic and market-specific indicators [19]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses three sub-indicators: economic sentiment, capital flows, and financial stress. - Each sub-indicator is scored, and the aggregated score determines the model's outlook (e.g., bullish, neutral, or bearish) for US equities [19]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shifted its outlook to "bullish" due to improving economic sentiment and capital flows, suggesting a favorable environment for US equities [19]. 3. Model Name: Gold Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the timing for gold investments based on fiscal and inflationary conditions [21]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates indicators such as fiscal deficit expansion, inflation trends, and central bank policies. - The latest reading of the timing indicator is -0.53, reflecting a cautious signal. However, the model acknowledges potential distortions due to lagging data on fiscal expansion [21]. - **Model Evaluation**: Despite the cautious signal, the model suggests that gold remains a strong investment under the anticipated fiscal deficit expansion and rising inflation [21]. 4. Model Name: Crude Oil Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts crude oil price trends based on macroeconomic and market-specific factors [26]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses a "Crude Oil Sentiment Index," which aggregates factors such as demand, inventory levels, the US dollar index, investor expectations, and macroeconomic risks. - The latest index reading is 0.56, indicating a positive outlook for crude oil prices [26][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model maintains a bullish view on crude oil, supported by improving demand and reduced macroeconomic risks [26][27]. --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Macro Scoring Model - **Copper**: When the macro score for copper reaches 4, the next month's annualized return for LME copper is 29% [12][16]. - **Gold**: The model indicates a positive outlook for gold under current macroeconomic conditions, though specific return metrics are not provided [16][18]. 2. US Equity Timing Model - **Outlook**: The model has upgraded its view on US equities to "bullish," supported by improving economic sentiment and capital flows [19]. 3. Gold Timing Model - **Indicator Value**: The latest timing indicator value is -0.53, signaling caution, though the model suggests potential upside due to fiscal and inflationary trends [21]. 4. Crude Oil Timing Model - **Indicator Value**: The Crude Oil Sentiment Index is at 0.56, reflecting a positive outlook for crude oil prices [26][27]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Global Monetary Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks global monetary policy trends to assess their impact on asset prices [16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is derived from central bank policy rates, liquidity measures, and monetary easing/tightening cycles. - It is used as an input in the macro scoring model to evaluate the attractiveness of risk assets [16]. 2. Factor Name: Global Inflation Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures global inflationary pressures and their implications for asset performance [16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor aggregates inflation data from major economies and evaluates its trend (e.g., accelerating or decelerating). - It is used to assess the relative attractiveness of inflation-sensitive assets like commodities [16]. 3. Factor Name: Economic Sentiment Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the overall economic sentiment to predict asset class performance [19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is based on leading indicators such as PMI data, new orders, and consumer confidence indices. - It is a key input in the US equity timing model [19]. --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Global Monetary Factor - **Impact**: The upward trend in this factor supports a positive outlook for risk assets, particularly commodities [16]. 2. Global Inflation Factor - **Impact**: The rising trend in this factor favors inflation-sensitive assets like copper and gold [16]. 3. Economic Sentiment Factor - **Impact**: The improvement in this factor supports a bullish outlook for US equities [19].