证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 04 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 09 月 04 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 ❑ 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究：如何看待股市虹吸债市资金？——20250903 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】徐工机械（000425）公司点评：推机械行业最大股权激励计划之一，迈向全 球工程机械龙头——20250902 ❑ 大势：9 月 3 日上证指数下跌 1.16%，沪深 300 下跌 0.68%，科创 50 下跌 1.64%，中证 1000 下跌 1.46%，创业板 指上涨 0.95%，恒生指数下跌 0.6%。 ❑ 行业：9 月 3 日表现最好的行业分别是综合（+1.64%)、通信（+1.61%)、电力设备（+1.44%)、医药生物（- 0.05%)、传媒（-0.15%)，表现最差的行业分别是国防军工（-5.83%)、非银金融（-3.05%)、计算机（-2.71%)、商 贸零售（-2.48%)、美容护理（-2.24%)。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent correction in the convertible bond market is more due to the rush of funds after the trading volume increased, but the core driving force for the market to rise under the expectation of loose liquidity and economic recovery has not changed after the adjustment, and the expected return under the supply - demand mismatch of convertible bonds is still promising [1] - The strong performance of equity assets has led to the expansion of the scale of hybrid bond funds, and there is a phased profit - taking in the convertible bond market after reaching a new high [11][16] Summary by Directory 1. The Strong Performance of Equity Assets Drives the Expansion of Hybrid Bond Fund Scale - Since 2025, equity - related assets have significantly outperformed fixed - income assets. As of September 2, 2025, the Wind All - Fund Index, the common stock fund index, the partial - stock hybrid fund index, the flexible allocation fund index, the balanced hybrid fund index, and the convertible bond fund have recorded annual returns of 14.54%, 29.98%, 30.00%, 22.33%, 13.30%, and 17.49% respectively, far outperforming bond funds. The performance of equity funds in Q3 2025 is particularly prominent [2] - Due to the slowdown in new convertible bond issuance and the maturity of existing convertible bonds, the market's outstanding balance has been shrinking. From Q1 2024 to Q2 2025, it decreased from 79.5012 billion to 66.4474 billion, a decline of 16.42%. Against this backdrop, the scale of convertible bonds held by public funds has remained stable, and the proportion of holdings has increased significantly, from 34.2% to 41.1% [13] - As of the latest disclosed semi - annual reports of public funds, the scale of convertible bonds held by first - tier bond funds, second - tier bond funds, convertible bond funds, and convertible bond ETFs is 7.2656 billion, 8.5867 billion, 4.2658 billion, and 4.2575 billion respectively, with a scale increase of 9.3%, 8.7%, 5.3%, and 1.5% month - on - month, and a share increase of 8.0%, 3.4%, 8.4%, and 4.1% year - on - year. The overall demand in the convertible bond market remains stable [15] 2. There is Phased Profit - Taking in the Convertible Bond Market after Reaching a New High - The continuous entry of incremental funds may be the core factor driving the convertible bond index to reach a new high, and the rush of funds after the trading volume increased may be the main reason for the recent phased adjustment of the market. After the convertible bond index reached new highs for several consecutive weeks in August, the daily average trading volume remained above 50 million lots for a long time, reaching a recent high of 65.71 million lots on August 28. Subsequently, the market turned volatile, and the trading enthusiasm declined significantly [3] - The net outflow of convertible bond ETFs is obvious. As of September 1, 2025, the scale of convertible bond ETFs increased from 3.99 billion at the beginning of June to 7.36 billion, a growth of 84.1%. Since September 1, the redemption of passive funds has been obvious, with the single - day redemption scale reaching a recent peak of 1.052 billion [3] - In the future, although the willingness of funds to realize profits is strong after this round of rise, after the adjustment, the average price of convertible bonds has dropped significantly, and the premium rate has been significantly reduced. The convertible bond market is expected to enter a volatile phase in the short term after the phased adjustment. In the medium term, the core driving force for the market to rise under the expectation of loose liquidity and economic recovery has not changed, and the expected return under the supply - demand mismatch of convertible bonds is still promising [4][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's smart revenue increased by 26% year-on-year to 33.398 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 4.86%. Adjusted EBITA margin was 8.8%, with adjusted EBITA profit of 2.954 billion yuan, also above expectations by 14.18%. Quarterly capital expenditure was 38.629 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 32.52% [1] - The cloud business is driven by the explosion of AI demand, with AI-related revenue in Alibaba Cloud achieving triple-digit growth over the past eight quarters. As AI penetration deepens across various industries, the demand for cloud services as foundational infrastructure is expected to continue to grow rapidly [1] - The Chinese e-commerce group is in a high investment phase, but the overall investment pace is slowing, leading to improved certainty. E-commerce revenue reached 118.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, driven mainly by an increase in monetization rates [1][2] Summary by Sections Cloud Business - The cloud business's short-term profit margins are influenced by both upward and downward drivers. In the long term, the upward drivers are expected to outweigh the downward ones, leading to a significant increase in profit margins [1][8] - The company anticipates that the growth rate of its intelligent cloud business will further improve in the next two quarters [1] E-commerce Business - Customer management revenue reached 89.252 billion yuan, growing by 10% year-on-year, primarily driven by an increase in monetization rates. The company is focusing on market share, with GMV growth matching retail sales growth [1] - Instant retail revenue reached 14.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The company has made strategic moves in instant retail, including significant subsidies and the integration of its platforms [2][3] Financial Projections - The company adjusted its profit forecasts due to significant investments in instant retail, projecting revenues of 1,070.734 billion yuan, 1,172.096 billion yuan, and 1,285.874 billion yuan for FY2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 9.5%, and 9.7% respectively [10] - The adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is projected to be 147.205 billion yuan, 173.274 billion yuan, and 223.998 billion yuan for FY2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.8%, 17.7%, and 29.3% respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 showed a slight year-on-year improvement, primarily due to an increase in the price spread of polyester filament [2][8] - The recovery in the polyester market is expected to continue, with a positive outlook for the price spread of polyester filament as downstream operations gradually recover [8][9] - The company is projected to experience significant profit growth in the coming years, with net profits expected to reach 25.56 billion, 32.57 billion, and 39.30 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 441.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.97 billion yuan, an increase of 2.93% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 6.76%, up by 0.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.50%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market Conditions - The polyester filament price spread improved, with the POY-PX/MEG spread reaching 1436 yuan/ton in H1 2025, up by 8.88% year-on-year [2] - The company’s investment income from joint ventures and associates was 4.24 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 0.18 billion yuan year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The polyester filament industry is expected to see a slowdown in new capacity additions, with supply growth projected at only 3%, which is lower than the demand growth rate [9] - The company is expected to benefit from this supply-demand dynamic, leading to an improved industry outlook and sustained profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is stable and meets expectations, with a revenue increase of 16% and a net profit increase of 26% [1] - The integration of AI products and new categories is driving revenue growth, with significant contributions from the AI business [1][3] - The company is expected to benefit from AI-driven efficiencies and scale effects, with projected revenue growth of 14% to 10% from 2025 to 2027 [1][8] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 915 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, and a net profit of 295 million yuan, up 26.1% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 476 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.3%, and net profit of 183 million yuan, up 16.4% [1] - The company's gross margin was 80.1%, with a net margin of 32.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5 percentage points [1] Business Segments - Revenue from the China Manufacturing Network was 760 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, while AI business revenue was 21.74 million yuan, up 92% [1] - The company has launched the "New Maritime Plan" to enhance online promotion in the light industry sector, attracting more sellers [1][2] Membership and AI Integration - As of H1 2025, the number of paid members on the China Manufacturing Network platform reached 28,699, an increase of 581 from the end of Q1 2025 [2] - The AI business has seen a membership increase to over 13,000, with a penetration rate of 45%, up 6 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.9 billion yuan in 2025, 2.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.3 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 544 million yuan, 643 million yuan, and 750 million yuan [8] - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 29 in 2025 to 21 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [1][8]

投资要点 创新驱动，融合 AI，产品高端化或将提升 Roe ——安克创新点评报告 安克创新(300866) 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 03 日 ❑ 收入符合此前预期，利润受召回、关税等因素短期影响 25H1：营收 128.67 亿元（+33.4%，以下均为同比），归母净利润 11.67 亿元 （+33.8%），扣非归母净利 9.61 亿元(+25.6%)。 25Q2：营收 68.73 亿元（+30.4%），归母净利润 6.71 亿元（+19.5%），扣非归母 净利 5.22 亿元（+15.9%）。此外公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派现 7 元（含税），总 计 3.75 亿元，分红比例达 32.16%。 ❑ 利润率稳定，毛利率受短期因素影响略下滑，持续研发投入 25H1：归母净利率 9.07%（+0.03pct），毛利率 44.7%（-0.45pct），销售费用率 22.0%（+0.05pct），管理费用率 3.6%（-0.5pct），研发费用率 9.3%（+1pct）。 ❑ 储能和智新增速亮眼，外部影响下美国仍具备强韧性，欧洲释放弹性 25H1 分品类：充电储能类营收 68.16 亿，同增 37%，占比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $780 million in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was $78.63 million, down 14.5% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of the early shipment of 1 million pairs of shoes for the Paris Olympics, revenue increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and net profit decreased by 6.3% [1][4] - The revenue from the sports category increased by 8.2% year-on-year, accounting for 48.5% of total revenue, while the fashion category decreased by 2.6%, luxury by 6.2%, and leisure by 9.2%. The growth in the sports category is driven by the expansion of key customers and new client acquisitions [1][2] - The company has a strong order backlog and is expanding its production capacity, particularly in Southeast Asia, with new factories in Indonesia and Bangladesh expected to contribute significantly to future growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company shipped 27.5 million pairs of shoes, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with an average selling price (ASP) of $27.4, down 3.2% year-on-year due to a higher proportion of lower-priced sports products [2] - The gross margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 22.6%, primarily due to the ramp-up inefficiencies of new factories and employee training [4] Capacity Expansion - The production distribution for footwear in H1 2025 was 52% in Vietnam, 25% in China, and 23% in other Asian regions. New production capacity is expected to be added in Indonesia and Bangladesh, with a total of 20 million pairs of new capacity planned over the next three years [3] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of $1.6 billion, $1.7 billion, and $1.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 7%, and 7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be $165 million, $185 million, and $204 million for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, +12%, and +10% [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 reached a new high, with revenue of 2.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58%, and a net profit of 1.159 billion yuan, up 95% year-on-year. The interconnect chip product revenue was 2.46 billion yuan, growing 61% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 64%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The rapid penetration of DDR5 memory modules is expected to exceed 50% in 2024 and 85% in 2025, driving significant growth in the company's revenue and profit due to strong demand from data centers [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the AI trend, with a comprehensive product layout in high-speed interconnects, including PCIe/CXL interconnect chips and Ethernet/optical interconnect chips, which are crucial for data center networking [3][4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.49 billion yuan, 7.91 billion yuan, and 9.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 50.9%, 44.1%, and 19.9%. The net profit is expected to be 2.51 billion yuan, 3.56 billion yuan, and 4.40 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 77.5%, 42.0%, and 23.5% respectively [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is undergoing a transformation towards IP, which is expected to catalyze performance recovery in the future [2] - Traditional core business has faced short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 7% in 2025H1 [2] - The company has established strategic partnerships to enhance its IP offerings, transitioning from a "function provider" to an "emotional value provider" [2] - The overseas market is showing steady growth, with a 16% increase in revenue in 2025H1 [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025H1, the company achieved a revenue of 10.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 0.557 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for 2025H1 was 19.45%, showing a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The net profit margin for 2025H1 was 5.15%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 25.373 billion yuan, 27.520 billion yuan, and 29.876 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.73%, 8.46%, and 8.56% [5] - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 1.439 billion yuan, 1.581 billion yuan, and 1.735 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 3.12%, 9.86%, and 9.69% [5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Resident Capital Activity Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The indicator is designed to track resident capital flows at a high frequency, combining data from three perspectives: ETFs dominated by individual investors, trading activity at specific brokerage branches, and Baidu search indices[1][11][23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **ETF Perspective**: - Identify A-share equity ETFs with individual ownership ≥70% based on semi-annual and annual reports (data updated in March and August each year) - Calculate daily ETF fund flows using the formula: $ \text{Daily Fund Flow} = \text{Daily Change in ETF Shares} \times \text{VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)} $ - Aggregate the fund flows of all selected ETFs to derive the indicator for individual investor-dominated ETFs[12] 2. **Brokerage Branch Perspective**: - Use trading data from specific branches of Orient Securities in Lhasa, which are predominantly used by retail investors - Calculate the daily trading volume of these branches as a percentage of the total trading volume of the Wind All-A Index to represent resident activity[13][17] 3. **Baidu Index Perspective**: - Select three keywords: "stock account opening," "bull market," and "bottom fishing" - Use their rolling 1-month moving averages to measure resident sentiment in different market scenarios[21] 4. **Comprehensive Indicator Construction**: - Smooth all three sub-indicators using a 1-month moving average - Calculate the rolling 6-month percentile rank for each sub-indicator - Combine the percentile ranks of the three Baidu keywords equally to form the Baidu sub-indicator - Combine the ETF, brokerage, and Baidu sub-indicators equally to form the final Resident Capital Activity Indicator, with values ranging from 0 to 1[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator aligns well with monthly A-share account opening data, demonstrating its effectiveness as a high-frequency proxy for resident capital flows. It also exhibits timing capabilities, similar to the "fear-greed index," by signaling potential short-term market risks when resident sentiment overheats[27][28] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Resident Capital Activity Indicator - **Wind All-A Index Return**: 75% (from February 2019 to August 2025) - **Timing Strategy Return**: 167% (based on the rule: stay fully invested unless the indicator exceeds 70% in the past 10 days, in which case switch to cash)[28]