证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 酒店餐饮 小菜园(00999) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 21 日 从徽菜烟火到千店网络，凭效率升级驱动规模扩张 ——小菜园深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 全国领先的大众便民中式餐饮连锁企业，稳健扩张驱动增长 小菜园是一家全国领先的大众便民餐饮连锁企业，专注于为消费者提供高品质、 标准化的中式餐饮体验。小菜园凭借 SKU 精简、供应链体系完善、自动化设备 投入及门店面积收缩，正进入效率兑现期，未来全国扩张潜力巨大。2021-2024 年，公司收入由 26.5 亿元增至 52.1 亿元，CAGR 约 25%；毛利率由约 66%提升 至约 68%，净利率由约 9%提升至约 11%，盈利能力和资本回报稳步提升。 ❑ 万亿级市场+行业集中度提升，我国中餐市场增长空间广阔 2024 年中国内地餐饮市场规模约 55,000+亿元，2020-2024 年 CAGR 约 9%。其 中中式/非中式餐饮市场结构明显：增速维度，非中式＞中式，2018-2023 年非中 式/中式餐饮 CAGR 约 7%/4%；规模维度，中式＞非中式，2023 年中式/非中式市 场规模约 40,000+/12,000+ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Su Nong Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - Su Nong Bank's 2025 performance report indicates steady growth in revenue and profit, with improvements in non-performing loans and provisions [1] - The bank's revenue and net profit for 2025 are projected to grow by 0.4% and 5.0% year-on-year, respectively, with an increase in growth rates compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [2][3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests reduced pressure on core revenue, with expectations of improved interest margins and good growth in non-interest income [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2025, Su Nong Bank's non-performing loan ratio was 0.88%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous quarter, while the provision coverage ratio increased by 14 percentage points to 370% [5] - Loan and deposit growth rates as of Q4 2025 were 7.8% and 7.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a cautious lending strategy expected to maintain single-digit growth in loans for 2026 [4] - The forecast for net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 is 5.04%, 5.27%, and 6.26%, respectively, with a target price of 6.77 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 37% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company is recognized as an excellent international brand operator, with a promising future as it rebounds from a low point. It operates notable brands including Clarks, Bossini, and Testoni, and has established a joint venture to manage the outdoor brand Haglöfs in Greater China. For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HK$48.1 billion (down 5.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of HK$1.8 billion (up 60.9% year-on-year) [1][4] - Clarks, a 200-year-old global footwear brand, holds a market share of 14.6% in the UK (ranked first) and 1.8% in the US (ranked eighth). The brand's revenue for the first half of 2025 was HK$41.5 billion (down 5.3% year-on-year), accounting for 85.7% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 48.7% (up 0.1 percentage points) [2] - The company is actively expanding its online sales network, with a 9.7% year-on-year increase in online revenue to HK$6.3 billion for the first half of 2025, representing 15.2% of total revenue [3] - The newly appointed co-CEO, Victor Herrero, has extensive management experience and has successfully led the company to profitability, with a 60.9% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [4] - The company is also focusing on the outdoor segment by enhancing its presence with the high-end outdoor brand Haglöfs, planning to open over 20 stores in Greater China by 2025 [5] - Profit forecasts indicate a positive outlook, with expected net profits of HK$2.1 billion, HK$5.1 billion, and HK$5.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting significant growth [6] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HK$48.1 billion and a net profit of HK$1.8 billion, with projections for 2025-2027 indicating a recovery and growth trajectory [1][6] - The estimated revenue for 2025 is HK$10,466 million, with a projected net profit of HK$208.2 million, marking a significant turnaround from a loss in 2024 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is recognized as an excellent international brand operator with a promising future, having a diverse portfolio that includes Clarks, Bossini, and Testoni, among others. In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HK$48.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.9% to HK$1.8 billion [1][4] - Clarks, a well-known global footwear brand, holds a market share of 14.6% in the UK and 1.8% in the US. The brand's revenue for the first half of 2025 was HK$41.5 billion, down 5.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 48.7% [2] - The new co-CEO, Victor Herrero, has extensive management experience and has successfully led the company to profitability, with a significant increase in net profit in the first half of 2025 [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of HK$2.1 billion, HK$5.1 billion, and HK$5.7 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory [6] - The projected revenue for 2025 is HK$10.47 billion, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [11] Online and Offline Expansion - Clarks is actively expanding its online sales network, with a projected online revenue increase of 9.7% to HK$630 million in the first half of 2025, accounting for 15.2% of total revenue [3] - The company plans to open new concept stores globally, including three independent Cloudstepper™ stores in Malaysia and the US by 2025, and a larger Canvas retail concept store in London's Tottenham Court Road [2][3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its outdoor brand presence by establishing a joint venture to operate the Haglöfs brand in Greater China, with plans to open over 20 stores by 2025 [5] - The company is also leveraging social media platforms for targeted marketing to boost brand recognition [5]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商农林牧渔 钟凯锋/张心怡】优然牧业（09858）公司深度：有"盲区"的周期，待"重估"的价值—— 20260120 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 22 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 01 月 22 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ❑ 大势：1 月 21 日上证指数上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 上涨 0.09%，科创 50 上涨 3.53%，中证 1000 上涨 0.79%，创业 板指上涨 0.54%，恒生指数上涨 0.37%。 ❑ 行业：1 月 21 日表现最好的行业分别是有色金属（+2.79%)、电子（+2.62%)、机械设备（+1.5%)、钢铁 （+1.39%)、建筑材料（+1.35%)，表现最差的行业分别是银行（-1.58%)、煤炭（-1.57%)、食品饮料（-1.53%)、 商贸零售（-1.07%)、公用事业（-0.8%)。 ❑ 资金：1 月 21 日 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, YuRan Dairy [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's dairy industry, with both a strong market position and undervalued stock, benefiting from the upward cycle of beef cattle and the reversal of raw milk prices, which is expected to lead to high returns from cattle disposal and significant growth in raw milk production [1][2] - The raw milk price is nearing a turning point, with a projected decline in dairy cow inventory by 8% from the end of 2023 to October 2025, which is expected to support a moderate increase in milk prices [1] - The company has established the largest modern dairy farm network in China, operating 100 farms across 17 provinces, with a dairy cow inventory of 620,000 heads and a raw milk production of 2.08 million tons in the first half of 2025, leading the industry [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - YuRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy market, covering the entire industry chain from breeding to raw milk production, and is committed to high-quality development and sustainable practices [17] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with a significant stake held by Yili Group, which also serves as a core customer, ensuring a deep business relationship [22] 2. Beef Cattle Market - The beef cattle market is expected to experience a structural shortage due to a decline in breeding cows, which will support long-term price increases [2][47] - The company is projected to benefit from the rising prices of calves and breeding cattle, with expected revenue growth from cattle disposal of 72% in 2025 [2] 3. Raw Milk Market - The raw milk business is expected to see significant growth, with sales projected to exceed 4 million tons by 2025, benefiting from cost reductions and efficiency improvements [1][3] - The company has a strong sales relationship with Yili, with 94.8% of its raw milk sales going to Yili at a price significantly higher than the industry average [1] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 200.96 billion yuan in 2024 to 258.98 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit projected to increase from a loss of 691 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 4.01 billion yuan in 2027 [11][9] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease significantly, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [9] 5. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the dairy and beef markets, with a turning point expected in the raw milk cycle and a long-term upward trend in beef prices due to structural supply issues [1][68] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these market dynamics, with a robust operational framework and strategic partnerships [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, YuRan Dairy [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's dairy industry, with both a strong market position and undervalued stock, benefiting from the upward cycle of beef cattle and the reversal of raw milk prices, which is expected to lead to high returns from cattle disposal and significant growth in raw milk production [1][2] - The raw milk price is nearing a turning point, with current prices at the bottom of the cycle, and a projected decline in dairy cow inventory by 8% by October 2025 compared to the end of 2023, which will support a moderate increase in milk prices [1] - The company has established the largest modern dairy farm network in China, operating 100 farms across 17 provinces, with a dairy cow inventory of 620,000 heads and a raw milk production of 2.08 million tons in the first half of 2025, ranking first in the country [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - YuRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy market in China, covering the entire industry chain from breeding to raw milk production, and is committed to high-quality development and sustainable practices [17] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with Yili Group as the largest shareholder, holding 33.93% of the shares, which strengthens the business relationship and sales advantages [22] 2. Beef Cattle Market - The beef cattle market is expected to experience a structural shortage, supporting long-term price increases due to a significant reduction in inventory and a weak replenishment of breeding cows [2][38] - The company is projected to benefit from the rising prices of calves and breeding cattle, with expected revenue growth from cattle disposal of 72% in 2025, 25% in 2026, and 34% in 2027 [2] 3. Raw Milk Market - The raw milk business is expected to have high growth elasticity, with a projected sales volume exceeding 4 million tons by 2025, benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][3] - The company’s raw milk sales to Yili accounted for 94.8% of its total raw milk revenue, with a selling price of 3.87 yuan/kg, which is 25.6% higher than the industry average [1] 4. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of 215.89 billion yuan in 2025, 234.86 billion yuan in 2026, and 258.98 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 7.43%, 8.78%, and 10.27% respectively [9] - The net profit is projected to recover significantly, with estimates of 9.71 billion yuan in 2025, 20.37 billion yuan in 2026, and 40.10 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to growth rates of 240.60%, 109.67%, and 96.88% respectively [9][11]

Market Overview - On January 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.33%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.58%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.79%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% [5][6] - The best-performing sectors on January 20 were oil and petrochemicals (+1.74%), building materials (+1.71%), real estate (+1.55%), transportation (+1.25%), and construction decoration (+1.24%). The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-3.23%), defense and military (-2.87%), computers (-1.94%), comprehensive (-1.87%), and electric equipment (-1.84%) [5][6] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on January 20 was 28,042 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.663 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [5][6] Important Recommendations - The report focuses on Wei Long Delicious (09985), a leading spicy snack company, which is expected to stabilize its noodle products in 2026 while the new konjac products are anticipated to drive revenue growth [7][8] - The recommendation logic indicates that despite market concerns about the growth potential of noodle products and increased competition in the konjac category, the company is expected to achieve a slight increase in noodle product sales in 2026 due to new flavors and improved distribution strategies [7][8] - The konjac industry is projected to exceed 30 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 12% over the next five years, indicating significant growth potential. Wei Long, as a market leader, is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend with new product launches [7][8] Important Insights - The macroeconomic report indicates that December 2025 concluded positively, with a focus on enhancing policy effectiveness for 2026. The overall economic growth for 2025 was 5%, and there is an expectation for a strong start in 2026 supported by industrial production and fiscal policies [9][10] - The report highlights a shift in policy focus from merely expanding policy measures to improving their effectiveness, particularly in supporting major national strategic tasks [9][10] Important Comments - The media and internet sector is experiencing a cooling period in AI applications, with a focus on identifying new investment opportunities. Companies such as Perfect World, Century Huatong, and Giant Network are highlighted as potential investment targets [11] - The report notes a fundamental shift in search logic from SEO to GEO, emphasizing the importance of authoritative information sources in AI model training and commercialization [11]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors may play an increasingly important role in the future pricing of major asset classes. The GPR index provides a relatively high - frequency, complete and coherent reliable data source for quantitatively tracking geopolitical factors, which may have a certain positive effect on preventing and responding to geopolitical risks [1][8][55] Summary by Directory 1. Geopolitical Factors May Become Important Influences on Asset Pricing - Since 2025, with the resonance of the bond and equity eras, asset pricing theories have been continuously updated. Geopolitics, as an exogenous factor in traditional asset - pricing models, is becoming more important in asset pricing. The shift from incremental to stock - based competition is the underlying reason for the intensifying geopolitical influence [1][14][16] - Geopolitical factors have low predictability. It is more feasible to prepare response plans in advance rather than predict these factors. Geopolitical events can cause short - term shocks to asset prices, and in recent years, their influence may show signs of long - term effects [2][22][27] 2. How to Quantify Geopolitical Factors - With the development of text analysis and big data processing, the measurement of geopolitical factors is becoming more standardized, multi - dimensional, and high - frequency. The GPR index, proposed by Caldara and Iacoviello in 2022, is the most representative method for quantifying geopolitical risks based on news text. It can accurately capture important historical geopolitical events but has regional limitations [3][34][35] - Other methods, such as economic sanctions, military expenditure, and political stance indicators, can complement the GPR index [41] 3. Analysis of the Impact of Geopolitical Factors on Asset Pricing 3.1 Correlation Analysis between the GPR Index and Major Asset Classes - Statistically, the impact of the GPR index on the returns of major asset classes is weak overall, but there are directional differences among different assets. The GPR index has limited statistical correlation with asset price trends, and its impact is more short - term [6][43][44] 3.2 Using the GPR Index to Measure the Returns of Major Asset Classes - From a full - cycle perspective, the GPR index can help measure the tail - risk of major asset returns. Geopolitical risks may show a trend of continuous central - value increase. Gold shows strong safe - haven properties in high - geopolitical - risk periods, while copper and crude oil prefer a low - geopolitical - risk environment. The impact of geopolitical factors on major assets is evolving from a short - term factor to a long - term structural force [7][45][49] 3.3 Using the GPR Index to Measure the Volatility of Major Asset Classes - Geopolitical factors not only affect the price direction of major assets but also their volatility. Commodity and equity assets are more sensitive to geopolitical risks, while bond assets show strong volatility resilience. Since 2021, the influence of geopolitical factors on the volatility of major assets has significantly increased [8][52][53]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the leading spicy snack company is expected to stabilize its noodle products in 2026 while experiencing rapid growth in its konjac new products, driven by scale effects that may lead to better-than-expected performance [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Outlook - The market perceives insufficient growth momentum for noodle products, with potential ongoing pressure due to weakened industry demand. However, the report suggests that noodle products may stabilize or see slight growth in 2026, while the konjac category is expected to achieve rapid growth through new flavors [2][3] Growth Drivers 1. The konjac industry is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size exceeding 30 billion yuan by 2025 and a CAGR of 12% over the next five years. The company holds the leading market share and has established strong brand recognition, which provides a competitive advantage. The growth in 2026 will be supported by three new flavors [3] 2. The decline in noodle products is attributed to SKU adjustments, but this impact is expected to diminish in 2026. New flavors and optimized channel displays are anticipated to enhance sales performance [3] 3. The combination of scale effects and cost advantages is expected to improve the company's profitability [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.26 billion, 8.59 billion, and 10.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 18%, and 18%. Net profit is expected to reach 1.41 billion, 1.72 billion, and 2.07 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 32%, 23%, and 20% [5][3] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2026 is 16.69, indicating a favorable valuation compared to the industry average of 20.4. The report suggests a target P/E range of 20-25 for the company, corresponding to a market capitalization of 34.5 billion to 43 billion yuan, representing a potential upside of 20%-50% [3]