证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 社交Ⅱ 腾讯控股(00700) 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 11 日 社交流量筑壁垒，AI + 新业务拓空间 ——腾讯控股更新报告 投资要点 1）互联网广告平台的核心是流量：微信和 QQ 是国内最大的社交流量入口，作 为熟人社交流量平台，公司竞争优势凸显。公司可以通过朋友圈、视频号、搜一 搜等多种产品形态进行流量变现。 2）持续的长青游戏运营焕新和孵化新游戏的能力体现的是公司整体对于游戏行 业的认知以及配套的机制和实践。根据游戏葡萄的文章，全球范围符合腾讯长青 游戏标准（年流水超过 40 亿、且季度平均 DAU 超过 500 万的手游/超过 200 万 的端游）的游戏约 70 款，其中 14 款来自腾讯，腾讯的投资公司还有 8 款。 ❑ 腾讯最近两轮上涨行情复盘： 2018.11-2021.2：2019 年宏观经济景气、2020 受疫情扰动（2019、2020 年社零增 速分别为 8.05%、-4.78%），流动性宽松，游戏版号恢复、重要游戏产品《和平 精英》上线。 ❑ 核心逻辑：我们认为新游戏《三角洲行动》将超市场预期，视频号、搜一搜等 会继续推动腾讯广告业务实现超越行 ...

Group 1: Economic Signals from Euro and Japan - Recent attempts to constrain fiscal discipline in Europe and Japan have failed, leading to weakened international capital confidence in these regions[1] - Long-term bond yields in France rose from 4.16% on August 1 to 4.45% on September 1, a widening of 10 basis points compared to the 10-year bond[2] - In the UK, 30-year bond yields increased from 5.35% to 5.64%, widening by 9 basis points, due to economic slowdown and increased public spending[2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Resilience - Despite weak employment data, the U.S. economy may be stronger than expected, with private non-residential investment contributing 30.4% to Q2 GDP growth[8] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, but the labor market has not shown signs of recession, with the Labor Market Stress Index (LMSI) at 8, well below the 30 threshold indicating recession risk[9] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may be overly optimistic, with inflation risks still present and economic resilience expected to continue[10] Group 3: Currency and Investment Outlook - The U.S. dollar and Nasdaq are expected to perform well, while the RMB may appreciate against the dollar, indicating a dual bullish trend for both currencies[13] - International capital's confidence in Europe and Japan has weakened due to unfavorable trade negotiations, reinforcing the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism[4] - The U.S. is positioned to benefit from foreign investment commitments of $600 billion and $550 billion from Europe and Japan, respectively, enhancing economic growth prospects[7]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 11 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 09 月 11 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商电子 王凌涛/沈钱】四会富仕（300852）公司深度：工控复苏叠加机器人全新增量，海内外扩产落定增长 渐现雏形——20250910 重要点评 浙商早报 1 市场总览 1、大势 9 月 10 日上证指数上涨 0.13%，沪深 300 上涨 0.21%，科创 50 上涨 1.09%，中证 1000 上涨 0.06%，创 业板指上涨 1.27%，恒生指数上涨 1.01%。 【浙商电新 邱世梁/黄华栋】电池 行业深度：固态中试线加速落地，各材料环节全面升级——20250910 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：9 月 10 日上证指数上涨 0.13%，沪深 300 上涨 0.21%，科创 50 上涨 1.09%，中证 1000 上涨 0.06%，创业 板指上涨 1.27%，恒生指数上涨 1 ...

证券研究报告 产业复苏，配置拐点 ——CXO 2025H1业绩综述 行业评级：看好 2025年09月10日 | 分析师 | 郭双喜 | 王班 | | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | guoshuangxi@stocke.com.cn | wangban@stocke.com.cn | | 电话 | 19801116960 | 15800935963 | | 证书编号 | S1230521110002 | S1230525070003 | 1 投资要点 1、股价复盘： 2 ➢ 本土：业绩&基本面拐点是主线。2024.12.31至2025.09.04医疗研发外包指数上涨60.41%，跑赢医药生物 （申万）指数36.15pct，其中美迪西、药明合联、药明生物、药明康德（A）、昭衍新药（A）表现较好。 95% ➢ 海外：普遍上调业绩，需求有复苏迹象。从海外CXO2025年指引看：基本都有所上调，Medpace上调幅度最 大，前端需求呈现复苏迹象，CDMO强订单需求持续。 2、财务分析： 添加标题 ➢ 成长性：收入YOY趋势持续向好。2024Q1-2025Q2较多CXO龙头收入YOY环比逐季提升，大订 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 93.35% and a 35.2% increase in Q2 2025 [1] - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the continued expansion in the shipbuilding industry, increased sales in the diesel engine segment, and effective cost control measures [1][3] - The company has a strong order book, with new contracts signed in the first half of 2025 amounting to 339.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.42% [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue reached 27.651 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 919 million yuan, up 93.35% [1] - The company's gross profit margin improved by 4.65 percentage points year-on-year in H1 2025, with a gross margin of approximately 16.49% [3] - The revenue breakdown by business segments shows that the diesel power segment generated 139.68 billion yuan, a 27.25% increase year-on-year, accounting for 50.52% of total revenue [2] Market Outlook - The shipbuilding cycle is on an upward trend, with demand for various ship types increasing, which is expected to improve the profitability of shipyards [5] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the tight supply-demand relationship in the ship engine market, as it is a leading player in the industry [10] - The after-market service for diesel engines presents a significant growth opportunity, with the company expanding its global service network [10][11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of approximately 600 billion yuan, 681 billion yuan, and 757 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 21.4 billion yuan, 30.1 billion yuan, and 37.7 billion yuan for the same years, with a CAGR of 39% [12] - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are approximately 23, 16, and 13, respectively [12]

高切低，布局低位消费 ——2025 年 9 月量化行业配置月报 核心观点 市场分化度显著走高，低位消费板块有望跟随补涨，建议关注食品饮料等行业的配置 机会。 ❑ 有色金属：短空长多，待消化拥挤度后仍可积极配置。 本月起，我们在基本面量化系列模型中新增对有色金属行业的覆盖。在此前报告 《全球资产配置：宏观打分卡》中，我们通过宏观打分的形式构建了对铜的择时 模型，而铜等工业金属在有色金属板块中市值占比近半，对板块走势起到主导作 用。因此，我们尝试直接将该择时信号应用于对有色金属行业指数进行择时，历 史上看能够实现不错的择时效果。对应到最新观点，受全球景气、全球通胀等宏 观因子边际上行的推动，铜的最新评分达到 4 分，处于历史极高水平，有色金属 景气度上行趋势仍在延续。不过，从拥挤度指标上来看，截至 9 月 5 日，有色金 属行业交易拥挤度达到滚动 3 年的 100%分位，交易结构存在过度拥挤的风险，可 能需要一段时间进行消化。 ❑ 有色金属、电子、通信等 8 个行业近期触发拥挤信号。 截至 9 月 5 日，有色金属、电子、通信、机械设备、综合 5 个行业的拥挤度指标 仍位于 95%预警阈值以上。除此之外，过去 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 专用设备 新时达(002527) 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 10 日 运动控制主业拐点向上，海尔入主加速具身智能落地 ——新时达推荐报告 投资要点 1. 一句话逻辑 国产机器人龙头，运动控制主业拐点向上，海尔入主有望推动公司具身智能/人 形机器人整机落地进程超预期。 2. 超预期逻辑 市场认为：公司成长性、盈利能力偏弱。 我们认为： 1）公司为控制类龙头，海尔入主加速公司具身智能落地，打开成长空间。 ①公司深耕运控技术三十载，控制类产品迭代能力强。具体看：i. 市占率居前。 公司电梯控制器全球第二、SCARA 工业机器人国内出货量第四；ii. 自动化产品 国产替代先锋、一体化程度较高。公司早期打破电梯控制外资垄断，后成为国 内首家实现机器人驱控一体的厂商，并可实现机器人控制器+伺服驱动自供。 ②海尔成为公司新实控人，未来公司有望受益海尔机器人持续推进。具体而 言，海尔已有四大布局：i. 成立机器人事业部、控股公司；ii. 海尔创投（海尔集 团控股）倡导发起 100 亿元具身智能创投基金；iii. 海尔联合乐聚机器人等具身 智能参与者共同成立"具身智能创新生态联盟"；iv ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic [2] Core Insights - Solid-state batteries are expected to achieve a technological breakthrough in electrolyte technology by 2027 and may reach industrialization by 2030, with sulfide solid-state batteries being the most emphasized route domestically and internationally [3][24] - The current focus is on sulfide electrolytes, while composite electrolytes are anticipated to be the best long-term solution [4][33] - High-nickel ternary materials and silicon-carbon anodes are expected to dominate in the short term, with lithium-rich manganese-based and lithium metal anodes being the long-term goals [5][56] - Nickel-coated or nickel-based current collectors are being developed to address corrosion issues, while porous copper foils are being explored for their lightweight and elastic properties [6] - Other materials such as single-walled carbon nanotubes and UV adhesives are also gaining attention for their potential in solid-state battery applications [7] Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Overview - Solid-state batteries are considered the ultimate form of lithium batteries, balancing safety and energy density [16][18] - The timeline for achieving significant milestones includes 200-300 Wh/kg energy density by 2027 and 400 Wh/kg by 2030 [19][24] Electrolytes - Sulfide electrolytes are currently the focus, with challenges in cost reduction and production scalability [4][39] - The development of halide electrolytes is also being pursued to enhance electrochemical stability and compatibility with high-voltage cathodes [44] Cathode Materials - High-nickel ternary materials are expected to be the primary choice for solid-state batteries, with ongoing modifications to improve performance [45][50] - Lithium-rich manganese-based materials are being developed to enhance energy density and reduce costs [55] Anode Materials - CVD silicon-carbon anodes are emerging as a leading option due to their performance and cost advantages, with significant growth expected in the coming years [61] - Lithium metal anodes are viewed as the ultimate solution, with ongoing research to address associated challenges [64] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in various material segments, including sulfide electrolytes, high-nickel ternary cathodes, CVD silicon-carbon anodes, and nickel-based current collectors [8]

Inflation Data Summary - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0% and market expectations of -0.2%[1] - Month-on-month CPI growth was 0%, down from 0.4% in July, primarily due to falling food prices[2] - August PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, an improvement from -3.6% in July, aligning with market expectations[5] Price Movement Insights - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year in August, with significant declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%)[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight increase from the previous month[3] - Industrial producer purchase prices decreased by 4% year-on-year, showing a minor improvement from -4.5% in July[7] Market Outlook - The second half of the year may see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by potential easing in US-China trade relations and risk mitigation from "stabilizing" funds[1] - A-shares are expected to experience a structural market with alternating low-value dividends and technology growth[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1]

Market Overview - On September 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.7%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 2.38%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.23%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.19% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on September 9 were real estate (+1.64%), comprehensive (+0.94%), banking (+0.83%), non-ferrous metals (+0.75%), and light industry manufacturing (+0.53%). The worst-performing sectors included electronics (-2.7%), computers (-2.07%), communications (-1.91%), pharmaceutical biology (-1.91%), and national defense and military industry (-1.9%) [4][6] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on September 9 was 21,521 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 10.231 billion Hong Kong dollars [6] Company Recommendation - The report recommends Shandong Weida (002026) as a leading player in electric tool accessories, highlighting its multi-business expansion that opens up growth opportunities. The company has ample cash reserves to support long-term development [7] - The expected revenue for Shandong Weida from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 2,480 million yuan, 2,719 million yuan, and 2,958 million yuan, with revenue growth rates of 12%, 10%, and 9% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 332 million yuan, 367 million yuan, and 402 million yuan, with net profit growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 9% respectively. Earnings per share are expected to be 0.75 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 17, and 15 times [7] Strategic Insights - The report discusses the recovery of active equity fund allocations, with ETF funds acting as market stabilizers. It notes that individual investors are increasingly trend-driven, and foreign capital activity has risen, benefiting quantitative funds [8][9] - It is anticipated that more active equity incremental funds will enter the market, driven by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and potential improvements in the fundamental economy [9] - The restaurant sector is identified as having a generally low valuation, presenting a rare investment opportunity. The report suggests that since July, more leading brands have shown signs of recovery, indicating that it is a good time to invest [10]