Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - By comparing the development paths of the past five typical bull markets and the current one, it is found that when the underlying logic of the main - line sectors in a bull market remains unchanged, the market has strong sustainability, obvious excess gains, and new opportunities are brewing during adjustments. Investors are advised to seize the adjustment window period and choose the right time to layout by judging the logical smoothness of sub - industries [1]. - Economic stimulus policies are often the starting gun for a bull market. Policy shifts catalyze investors' expectations of future liquidity easing and long - term economic improvement, leading to an initial increase in market risk appetite and valuation. Industry prosperity and corporate fundamentals determine the main line of the market, and the main - line sectors are those with the most improvement expectations and policy benefits [3][11]. - Main - line sectors usually have several common characteristics: supported by top - level policies with sustainable prosperity stories; strong capital consensus with rapid and concentrated allocation of foreign, public, and leveraged funds; strong market sustainability, with significant multiple growth in gains, outperforming the market index, and internal diffusion within the sector [3][17]. - In a bull market, there are also non - main - line sectors that rise with the market. Their rise is mainly due to the inflow of funds and the increase in overall market risk appetite, with lagging start, lower gains, and poor sustainability [18]. - In a bull market, choice is more important than timing. During the adjustment period of the main - line sectors, if the adjustment is due to external shocks without changing the long - term development trend, it may be a new layout opportunity; if it is due to the industry entering the mature stage, wait for the valuation to return to a reasonable level and find sub - sectors with moats. As long as the underlying logic of the main - line sectors remains unchanged, funds will flow back after the short - term switch [2][19]. - If the fundamental logic of the main - line sectors is shaken, it may mean the end of the market. Currently, the technology sector is the main line of the current bull market. Although affected by tariff disturbances, investors should seize the adjustment window to re - layout [20]. - The convertible bond market generally follows the equity market. It can have independent bull markets when there is a systematic inflow of convertible bond funds, such as in 2022 and from July to August 2025 [20][22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Past Bull Market Reviews - A - share market in the past 20 years can be divided into six typical bull markets: 2005 - 2007 (dominated by cyclical products), 2008 - 2009 (triggered by the "Four - Trillion" plan), 2013 - 2015 (driven by the mobile Internet), 2016 - 2017 (under the supply - side reform), 2019 - 2021 (led by consumption upgrade and new energy), and 2024 - present (guided by a new round of technological revolution) [9][11][12]. - During these bull markets, different main - line sectors emerged, such as cyclical products in the first round, financial and infrastructure sectors in the second round, TMT in the third round, large - cap stocks in the fourth round, and consumer and new - energy - related sectors in the fifth round. In the current sixth round, it is the new - quality productivity represented by computing power, semiconductors, and robots [12]. - The representative index gains of the six bull markets vary. For example, the WanDe QuanA index had a 583% increase in the first round (2005.07 - 2007.10), a 136% increase in the second round (2008.11 - 2009.07), etc. The main - line sectors generally had higher gains than non - main - line sectors [13][15]. 2. Current Market Situation - The technology sector is the main line of the current bull market, which has experienced different stages since September 24, 2024. Affected by tariff disturbances, market risk appetite has adjusted, and funds have flowed to defensive sectors such as dividend stocks. However, the underlying logic of the technology sector remains smooth, and investors should seize the adjustment opportunity to re - enter the market [20]. - The convertible bond market has had two independent bull markets, in 2022 and from July to August 2025, which were driven by the inflow of funds [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The currency-credit model is significant for asset allocation in a specific historical period, but with the internal transformation of the economic development model, a new way of thinking and investment framework is needed to view the new market trends of the bond and equity markets [1][3][31]. - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock has limitations in practical application, and the Chinese version - the currency-credit model - has emerged, but it also faces the problem of weakened applicability due to economic changes [1][2][28]. Summary by Directory 1. Reexamine the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock and the Currency-Credit Model - **Merrill Lynch Investment Clock**: It is a typical framework for asset allocation, dividing the macro - economy into four quadrants based on growth and inflation. However, it has limitations such as low data frequency, time lag, and difficulty in accurately grasping cycle inflection points in real - world trading [1][11][12]. - **Growth and Inflation Cyclical Weakening in China**: Since 2012, the cyclical nature of China's economic growth (GDP) and inflation (CPI) has significantly weakened, causing the classic Merrill Lynch Investment Clock to be "ill - adapted" to the Chinese market [13]. - **Currency - Credit Model**: It is a Chinese - version of the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock, dividing the macro - economy from the currency and credit dimensions. It corresponds to the four stages of the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock and presents different asset performance in different stages. It innovatively incorporates liquidity factors into asset pricing [2][15][22]. - **Differences in Asset Pricing Logic**: The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock follows a top - down macro logic, while the currency - credit model uses the credit cycle to reflect the macro - economy and incorporates the currency cycle for a more comprehensive asset pricing [22]. - **Applicability Differences**: The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock is more suitable for the relatively mature capital markets in Europe and the United States, while the currency - credit model is more adaptable to the domestic investment environment. For example, the currency - credit model can better explain the 2015 equity market bull market [23]. - **Limitations of the Currency - Credit Model**: Due to the transformation of China's economic growth model, the currency - credit model may face weakened applicability. After 2008, investment became a key driver, and credit cycles were important. After 2020, consumption gradually replaced the credit cycle as an important indicator of economic prosperity [28][29].

Market Overview - On October 22, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.33%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.06%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.43%, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.79%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.94% [4] - The best-performing sectors on October 22 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.58%), Banking (+0.97%), Home Appliances (+0.82%), Real Estate (+0.75%), and Media (+0.59%). The worst-performing sectors were Non-ferrous Metals (-1.36%), Power Equipment (-1.29%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (-1.19%), Defense and Military Industry (-1.17%), and Coal (-1.03%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on October 22 was 1,690.3 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 10.018 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Company Analysis: China Telecom (601728) - On October 21, 2025, China Telecom released its third-quarter report, showing a revenue growth of 0.6% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with service revenue increasing by 0.9% and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 5.0% [5] - In the third quarter alone, revenue decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 0.5%. Revenue from terminal products fell by 18.0%, but this had a limited impact on profits. New businesses such as AI computing power continued to grow rapidly [5] - IDC revenue increased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration in growth compared to the first half of 2025 (+7.4%). Smart revenue surged by 62.3%, satellite communication revenue grew by 23.5%, and quantum revenue skyrocketed by 134.6% [5] - Investment opportunities are highlighted by the dual attributes of dividends and computing power, with AI driving increased demand for computing power [5]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 摩托车及其他 涛涛车业(301345) 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 22 日 单三季度业绩同比增长 121%，北美休闲车龙头有望强者恒强 ——涛涛车业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，单三季度利润增长提速（归母净利润同比增长 121%） 1）2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 27.7 亿元，同比增长 25%；实现归母净利润 6.1 亿元，同比增长 101%。前三季度加权 ROE 为 18.1%，同比提升 8.0pct；销售净利率为 21.9%，同比提升 8.0pct；销售毛利率为 42.3%，同比提升 6.0pct。 2）单三季度，公司实现营业收入 10.6 亿元，同比增长 28%；实现归母净利润 2.6 亿元， 同比增长 121%。单三季度 ROE 为 7.9%，同比提升 3.9pct；销售净利率为 25.0%，同比提 升 10.6pct；销售毛利率为 46.1%，同比提升 9.1pct。 ❑ 9 月 20 日公司发布公告称拟发行 H 股 公司拟首次公开发行 H 股股票并在香港联交所主板上市，以推动公司全球化战略布局、 提升国际品牌影响力 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company has achieved significant growth in the passenger car seat segment, with sales increasing by 64% and average selling price (ASP) rising by 36% in 2024. It has secured a contract with a leading domestic new energy vehicle manufacturer for seat assembly, expected to generate approximately 1.7 billion in revenue over three years [1] - The company has also received dual certification from EASA and FAA for its aircraft seats, indicating strong international compliance and demand. It has established deep collaborations with key players in the low-altitude economy sector [2] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is projected to grow by 48%, although the non-recurring profit has faced pressure [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.83 billion, 3.55 billion, and 4.22 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 607 million, 1.07 billion, and 1.28 billion, reflecting growth rates of 76% and 19% [4] Summary by Sections Passenger Car Seats - The company has achieved a complete seat industry chain and has successfully developed core components in-house, including seat frames and key parts like sliders and pumps [1] - The company is set to begin mass production of a new seat assembly project in June 2026, with an estimated total of 540,000 vehicles over three years [1] Aircraft Seats - The overseas subsidiary has received EASA and FAA certifications, and has secured multiple orders for single-aisle business class seats [2] - The company is actively involved in the eVTOL seat development and has established partnerships with leading low-altitude industry players [2] Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a 47.55% year-on-year growth, although the non-recurring profit decreased slightly [3] - Revenue projections indicate a strong growth trajectory, with expected increases in both revenue and net profit over the next few years [4]

Market Overview - On October 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.53%, the STAR 50 climbed by 2.81%, the CSI 1000 went up by 1.45%, the ChiNext Index surged by 3.02%, and the Hang Seng Index gained 0.65% [6] - The best-performing sectors on October 21 were telecommunications (+4.9%), electronics (+3.5%), construction decoration (+2.36%), comprehensive (+2.29%), and real estate (+2.25%). The worst-performing sectors included coal (-1.02%), food and beverage (+0.23%), transportation (+0.29%), beauty and personal care (+0.31%), and banking (+0.33%) [6] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on October 21 was 1,892.693 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.171 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [6] Key Recommendations - The report highlights Zhongrun Optical (688307) as a leading domestic brand in high-magnification optical zoom lenses, expanding into new fields such as drones and mobile robots. The company is expected to double its performance due to industry growth and increased market share from domestic replacements [7][8] - The report argues against the prevailing market view that new downstream products will only provide temporary boosts to the optical lens industry, asserting that the long-term outlook remains positive due to factors such as import substitution and the company's unique technological capabilities [7] - The target price for Zhongrun Optical is set at 66.27 yuan, with projected revenues of 660 million yuan, 1,170 million yuan, and 1,645 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 45%, 77%, and 44% respectively [8] Important Insights - The macroeconomic report anticipates a slight decline in economic growth to 4.7% in the fourth quarter, with an overall growth target of around 5% for the year, despite challenges [10] - The report emphasizes that there may be additional stimulus policies in the fourth quarter, with significant measures potentially being reserved for the first quarter of the following year to ensure a strong start [10] Industry Analysis - The medical device industry is expected to see accelerated innovation and international expansion, particularly in areas such as cardiac intervention, biological materials, and surgical robots. Companies like United Imaging Healthcare and Mindray Medical are highlighted as key players [11] - The report identifies catalysts for growth in the medical device sector, including moderate price reductions, the recovery of tenders, and the acceleration of new product launches [11]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 工程机械 工程机械 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 21 日 卡特收购矿业软件公司 RPMGlobal，重视矿山机械投资机会 ——工程机械行业点评报告 事件：当地时间 10 月 12 日，卡特彼勒宣布达成协议，收购澳大利亚软件公司 RPMGlobal。 投资要点 ❑ 卡特宣布收购矿业软件公司 RPMGlobal，以强化矿业软件布局 卡特彼勒当地时间 10 月 12 日宣布达成协议，收购澳大利亚软件公司 RPMGlobal，交易预计于 2026 年第一季度完成。根据计划条款，RPM 股东将有 权获得每股 5 澳元现金，该计划对价对应股权价值 11.2 亿澳元（约合 7.3 亿美 元）。RPMGlobal 是唯一一家在澳大利亚证券交易所上市的矿业软件公司。 矿企资本开支和主要金属价格走势正相关性较强。2025 年以来金、银、铜价格 分别上涨 62%、76%、22%（2025 年 1 月 1 日-2025 年 10 月 20 日）。主要金属 价格持续上涨，有望支撑下游矿企资本开支景气上行。 据 Precedence Research，2023 年全球矿山机械市场规模为 1191.2 ...

Market Overview - On October 20, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.53%, the STAR Market 50 went up by 0.35%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 0.75%, the ChiNext Index surged by 1.98%, and the Hang Seng Index gained 2.42% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on October 20 were telecommunications (+3.21%), coal (+3.04%), electric equipment (+1.54%), machinery (+1.44%), and electronics (+1.38%). The worst-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (-1.34%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.88%), beauty and personal care (-0.38%), food and beverage (-0.12%), and banking (-0.1%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on October 20 was 1.7513 trillion yuan, with a net outflow of 2.67 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The report from Zhejiang Merchants Metal New Materials indicates that the bullish market for metals is expected to continue into Q4 2025, driven by a weaker US dollar and frequent supply disruptions in major metal varieties [5] - The main logic of the market has not changed, and there is a continued positive outlook for the metal bull market despite recent trade tensions and increased market volatility. It is recommended to maintain positions and buy on dips [5] - The report highlights that while non-ferrous metals have seen significant price increases, a correction is anticipated in Q4 [5] - The driving factors for this outlook include the rising prices of resource products due to the weaker US dollar and ongoing supply disruptions in key metal varieties [5]

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% compared to 3.9%[1] - The contribution of final consumption, gross capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth was 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5% respectively[14] - Q4 economic growth is expected to slightly decline to 4.7%, but achieving the annual growth target of around 5% is considered feasible[15] Industrial Production - In September, industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 0.64%[3] - The capacity utilization rate for industrial enterprises was 74.6% in Q3, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2[21] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.6% year-on-year, contributing 24.7% to overall industrial growth[20] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in September grew by 3%, down from 3.4% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline[4] - The "trade-in" policy supported certain categories, but overall consumer spending is expected to remain under pressure in Q4 due to reduced fiscal support[32] - The restaurant sector saw a weak performance, with dining revenue growing only 0.9% year-on-year[33] Investment Trends - From January to September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative cumulative data since August 2020[7] - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9%, while manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%[43] - Infrastructure investment in the electricity, heat, and water production and supply sector increased by 15.3% year-on-year, contributing 1.1 percentage points to overall investment growth[42] Employment and Policy - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.2%, showing a slight decline, aided by policies supporting employment for college graduates[8] - The government is gradually prioritizing expanding domestic demand and consumption, indicating a shift towards counter-cyclical measures[34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but there is an expectation for a gradual improvement starting from Q4 2025 [1] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 7.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.93%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.129 billion yuan, down 20.74% year-on-year [5] - The growth of liver disease medication is expected to improve slowly from Q4 2025 due to an increase in the number of retail outlets and a decrease in the price of key raw materials [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 10,787.86 million yuan, 9,810.49 million yuan, 10,618.65 million yuan, and 11,311.31 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.25%, -9.06%, 8.24%, and 6.52% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2,977 million yuan, 2,529.36 million yuan, 2,679.25 million yuan, and 2,880.96 million yuan for the same years, reflecting a year-on-year change of 6.42%, -15.04%, 5.93%, and 7.53% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are estimated at 4.93 yuan, 4.19 yuan, 4.44 yuan, and 4.78 yuan respectively [5] Market Position and Outlook - The company has a strong brand and unique product offerings, which provide high barriers to entry and less impact from centralized procurement [5] - The number of retail outlets for the company's products increased significantly in September 2025, which is expected to drive sales in Q4 2025 [5] - The gross margin for liver disease medication is anticipated to improve as the price of natural raw materials decreases [5]