证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 医药生物 还得是"重构者"——医药创新 ——医药生物周跟踪 20250328 投资要点 ❑ 周思考：还得是"重构者"——医药创新 2025 年以来，各行业表现交织，正如我们之前提到的，在当前医改深化的背景下， 中期就是短期，个股胜于赛道。短期的主题往往很难获得明显的收益，以中期医 改破局的角度投资"格局的重构者"才有望获得更有确定性的收益。本周 （2025.3.24-3.28）化学制剂、化学原料药及生物医药板块受到业绩报告披露，交 易项目公告等事件催化，板块增幅显著，展现出超额表现趋势。我们认为，具有 以下几个特征的公司或有更强的可能成为行业格局的重构者: 不同于市场的认知，我们认为医改虽然仍存在持续完善、更体系化的空间，但方 向是明确的，体系是清晰的。中期看，这个体系化的改革需要打破的是旧生态， 重塑医药格局。而医药格局"重构者"将成为重要的投资主线，"重构者"身份 逐渐明确或成为医改的重要节点。 2025Q2 医药行业观点：我们推荐医药行业那些具备"重构者"角色的子领域，这 些领域中期或成为并购整合、新品突破的引领者，逐步成为重构产业生态的主角。 这些领域包含有较大α增量的 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 电网设备 东方电缆(603606) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 29 日 海缆订单充沛，双海助力成长 ——东方电缆 2024 年报点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 24 年营收实现稳健增长，归母净利润小幅提升 2024 年，公司实现营收 90.93 亿元，同比增长 24.38%；归母净利润 10.08 亿元， 同比增长 0.81%。2024Q4，公司实现营收 23.94 亿元，同比增长 22.10%，环比下 降 9.00%；归母净利润 0.76 亿元，同比下降 57.32%，环比下降 73.60%，主要因 为低毛利的陆缆系统占比提升。分业务来看，2024 年海缆系统营收 27.78 亿元， 同比增长 0.41%，毛利率 39.57%，同比下降 9.57pct；陆缆系统营收 54.16 亿元， 同比增长 41.52%，毛利率 7.59%，同比下降 0.37pct；海洋工程 8.89 亿元，同比 增长 25.29%，毛利率 21.93%，同比下降 2.60pct。 ❑ 国内外海风高速发展，在手订单充沛 截至 2025 年 3 月 21 日，公司在手订单 179.75 亿元，其中海缆系统 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$16.59, corresponding to a PB of 1.2 times for 2025 [6]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of CNY 32.161 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, while the underwriting profit decreased by 43.9% to CNY 5.713 billion. The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) rose to 98.8%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s investment income significantly increased by 67.9% year-on-year to CNY 34.937 billion, primarily due to the strategic allocation of secondary equity assets during market lows [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of CNY 32.161 billion, up 30.9% year-on-year, with an underwriting profit of CNY 5.713 billion, down 43.9%. The COR was 98.8%, up 1.0 percentage points, and ROE was 13.0%, up 2.2 percentage points. The proposed final dividend per share is CNY 0.332, leading to a total annual dividend of CNY 0.54, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year [1]. Liability Side - The insurance service revenue for 2024 was CNY 485.223 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a market share of 31.8%, down 0.7 percentage points. The revenue from auto insurance was CNY 294.701 billion, up 4.5%, while non-auto insurance revenue was CNY 190.522 billion, up 8.8% [2][3]. Profitability - The COR increased by 1.0 percentage points to 98.8% in 2024, driven by a rise in the loss ratio, which increased by 2.4 percentage points to 73%. The increase in loss ratio was attributed to severe disaster impacts and rising liability costs due to declining interest rates. The company implemented cost reduction measures, reducing the expense ratio by 1.4 percentage points to 25.8% [3][4]. Investment Side - By the end of 2024, the total investment scale reached CNY 676.512 billion, a 12.6% increase from the previous year, with a total investment return rate of 5.5%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company aims for steady growth, with projected net profit growth rates of 29.9%, 16.4%, and 20.5% for 2025-2027. The BPS is expected to be CNY 12.57, CNY 14.06, and CNY 15.82 for the respective years, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.04, 0.93, and 0.83 [6][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.228 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.396 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.6% year-on-year [1] - The company actively repurchased shares, demonstrating confidence, and plans to increase the dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per share, which accounts for 65.6% of net profit [1] - The traditional core business revenue was 8.918 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in the technology segment [2] - The company is expanding its presence in the overseas market, achieving a revenue of 1.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% [2] - The company’s gross margin improved to 18.9% for 2024, with a notable increase in Q4 gross margin to 16.8% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 24.228 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.76% projected for 2025 [14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.396 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 1.601 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 14.70% [14] - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 18.9%, with a significant improvement in Q4 gross margin to 16.8% [5] Business Segments - The traditional core business generated a revenue of 8.918 billion yuan, with the writing tools segment showing a revenue of 2.429 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively developing its two-dimensional and IP products, which have received positive market feedback [2] - The retail segment, including the Jiuwu and lifestyle stores, reported a revenue of 1.479 billion yuan, with a growth of 11% year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve revenues of 26.875 billion yuan, 30.047 billion yuan, and 33.504 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 10.93%, 11.80%, and 11.50% [14] - The net profit is projected to increase to 1.601 billion yuan in 2025, with continued growth expected in subsequent years [14] - The company’s proactive share repurchase and increased dividend distribution reflect a strong long-term growth confidence [12]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 国有大型银行Ⅱ 储蓄代理费首次主动下调 ——邮储银行 2024 年年报业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 2025 年 3 月 27 日邮储银行公告下调储蓄代理费，有望驱动盈利增速跑赢同业。 ❑ 业绩概览 24A营收同比+1.8%、归母净利润同比+0.2%，分别较 24Q1~3提升 1.7pc、持平。 24Q4 末不良率 0.90%，较 24Q3 末上升 4bp；拨备覆盖率环比-16pc 至 286%。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 预计 2025-2027 年邮储银行归母净利润同比增速分别为 1.73%/1.10%/1.44%，对应 BPS 8.93/9.50/10.07 元。现价对应 2025-2027 年 PB 估值分别为 0.60/0.56/0.53 倍， 目标价 6.70 元/股，对应 2025 年 PB 为 0.75 倍。截至 2025 年 3 月 27 日收盘，现 价 5.33 元/股。现价空间为 26%，维持"买入"评级。 ❑ 营收增速小幅回升 邮储银行 2024 年营收同比增长 1.8%，增速环比提升 1.7pc；归母净利润同比增长 0.2%，增速环比持平。营收增速环比提升，主要得 ...

债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 28 日 投资者更偏好短债 ——4 月债市调研问卷点评 核心观点 站在 3 月底时点展望 4 月，投资者对于短端的乐观程度要明显高于长端，对信用品种 的关注度环比抬升，加仓倾向环比上月边际下降。 ❑ 根据 3 月底发布的债市调查问卷结果，我们总结出投资者对于 4 月债市的四点主 流预期： （1）投资者对于短端的乐观程度要明显高于长端，对信用品种的关注度环比上月 抬升； 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 投资者样本覆盖度可能不全；投资者看法和行为可能有偏差；投资者观点可能随 市场快速切换。 分析师：覃汉 执业证书号：S1230523080005 qinhan@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：陈婷婷 chentingting01@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《银行格局的新趋势与市场影 响》 2025.03.27 2 《如何理解二季度基本面预期 交易》 2025.03.27 3 《MLF 结构性改革不改债市 中期趋势》 2025.03.25 （2）降准降息的预期环比上月边际下降，降准落地在二季度，降息时间点落在下 半年是主流看法 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 保险Ⅱ 业绩及股东回报全面超预期 ——新华保险 2024 年年报点评 投资要点 业绩概览 2024 年，新华归母净利润 262.29 亿元，同比大幅增长 201.1%，加权 ROE 25.88%， 同比+17.94pt；寿险 NBV 为 62.53 亿元（新经济假设口径），同比+106.8%；拟派发末 期每股股息 1.99 元，连同中期分红，公司 2024 年全年分红总额达 78.93 亿元，同比 大增 197.6%，分红率 30.1%，公司业绩及股东回报全面超预期。 核心关注 1、NBV：新业务价值率大幅提升 2024 年，新华 NBV 的大增主要来自于新业务价值率的驱动，公司按首年保费计算的 新业务价值率提升 7.9pt，至 14.6%；公司新单保费小幅下降 5%，主要由于主动减少 银保渠道的趸交业务规模所致。 2、分渠道：银保 NBV 贡献超 40% （1）个险：2024 年末，代理人数量 13.6 万，同比-12.3%，月均绩优人力 1.55 万，同 比+4%，月均绩优率 10.9%，同比提升 2.3pt，月人均首年期交保费 0.81 万元，同比 显著提升 41%。 （ ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 兴业银行(601166) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 27 日 不良迎改善拐点 ——兴业银行 2024 年报点评 投资要点 兴业银行 2024 年归母净利润同比增长 0.1%，利润增速回正；营收同比增长 0.7%，增速环比下行 1pc。利润增速回正，主要得益于减值损失的显著改善。 24A 兴业银行减值损失同比下降 1.6%，而前三季度减值损失同比增长 14.3%。减 值损失改善背后，得益于不良生成水平的下降，和存量不良清收力度加大。24A 真实不良 TTM 生成率环比下降 19bp；兴业银行 2024 年账销案存清收 144.71 亿 元，同比增长 1.75%。展望未来，兴业银行营收仍面临一定压力，未来趋势仍需 观察，主要考虑：息差仍有收窄压力、债市波动拖累投资收益。 ❑ 息差韧性好于预期 ❑ 兴业银行资产质量指标环比改善，分红比例小幅提升至 30.2%。 ❑ 数据概览 兴业银行 2024 年归母净利润同比增长 0.1%，利润增速回正；营收同比增长 0.7%，增速环比下行 1pc。2024 年末不良率 1.07%，环比 24Q3 末下降 1bp，拨备 覆盖率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 10.5% and a net profit increase of 16.2% for 2024, although the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first three quarters of the year [2][3] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.77% as of the end of Q4 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 501%, indicating a solid asset quality despite rising risks in small and micro loans [5][6] - The bank's net interest margin showed a year-on-year decline of 15 basis points to 2.71%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting potential for improvement in the future [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10,909 million and a net profit of 3,813 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 16.2% respectively [12] - The interest income improved by 1.4% compared to the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 7.5% [2] - The bank's asset impairment losses turned into a positive contribution to profit growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 7% in asset impairment losses for 2024 [2] Loan Growth - Loan growth has been slowing, with a decrease of 1.4% in loan growth rate to 8.3% by the end of Q4 2024, indicating weak demand for small and micro loans [3] - The bank is actively promoting the high-quality development of village banks, which may unlock future loan growth potential if economic conditions improve [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.77%, with a slight decrease in the attention rate to 1.49% [5] - The bank's provision coverage ratio decreased by 28% to 501%, but remains high, allowing for potential profit support through appropriate provision releases [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The bank is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 10.45%/10.48%/11.02% for 2025-2027, with corresponding book values per share of 10.41/11.68/13.09 [6][12] - The target price is set at 8.96 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.86 for 2025 [6]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 饮料乳品 结硬寨打呆仗，扩店空间广阔 ——古茗深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 基本情况：古茗是全价位段第二、中价段最大的现制茶饮品牌 古茗产品价格集中在 10-18 元，门店网络扩张和 GMV 不断上升驱动公司营 收持续增长。截至 2024 年 9 月底，古茗的门店网络已覆盖 9778 家门店。2024 年 1-9 月，公司收入 64.4 亿元，同增 15.6%，经调整利润 11.5 亿元，同增 10.0%，同期毛利率 30.5%，经调整净利率 17.8%。 ❑ 行业分析：中价市场和二线以下城市是赛懂扩容的核心驱动 中国现制饮品市场中规模最大的是现制茶饮市场，其中规模最大、发展势头 最为迅猛的是中价现制茶饮店（10-20 元价格带）。激烈竞争下，古茗在增速最 快的二线及以下城市（预计 2024-2028 年 CAGR 为 22.5%）布局优势明显。根据 灼识咨询，按 GMV 计算，古茗在二线及以下城市的市场份额约为 22%，门店数 量占比高达 78.8%，远超其他品牌。 ❑ 核心竞争力：结硬寨打呆仗，地域加密高质量扩张 （1）不同之处？卡位价格带和城市线级双维度 β 最快的细分市场。 ...