❑ 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报 2025 年 Q1-Q3 公司实现营收 758.17 亿元，同比-0.04%，归母净利润 52.56 亿 元，同比-18.29%。单 Q3 公司实现营收 259.42 亿元，同比-9.80%，归母净利润 17.81 亿元，同比-65.02%。公司短期业绩承压，主要受生猪价格持续走低影响。 公司拟每 10 股派发 3 元，合计派发现金 19.94 亿元，高分红彰显公司价值。 ❑ 生猪出栏增长，生产指标持续向好 出栏量方面，公司 25Q1-Q3 生猪累计出栏量 2766.77 万头，同比+28.3%；单 Q3 生猪出栏 973.58 万头，同比+35.5%，其中，肉猪出栏 837.6 万头，仔猪出栏 136.0 万头，Q3 生猪出栏量增长主要受公司前期投苗增加以及外卖仔猪影响。销 售均价方面，公司 25Q3 肉猪销售均价 13.9 元/kg，同比-28.7%，主要系生猪产能 压力逐步释放，猪价持续承压下行。公司生猪养殖核心生产指标持续改善，成本 稳步下行，通过持续优化种猪体系和结构，8 月公司 PSY 为 27 左右，叠加饲料 原料价格下降、疫病防控升级、饲料营养配方优化和 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company's Q3 non-net profit increased by 65% year-on-year, meeting expectations, with a total revenue of 25.61 billion yuan in Q3, down 5.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.39 billion yuan, down 3.71% year-on-year [1] - The significant growth in non-net profit by 85.51% year-on-year is attributed to the synergy strategy of "improving domestic trade and increasing foreign trade," with foreign trade leasing becoming a core growth driver [2] - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend for the first time, with a payout ratio of 84%, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3] - The outlook for Q4 is positive, with expectations of continued strong performance in both domestic and foreign trade due to seasonal demand and stable pricing [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 78.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.10 billion yuan, an increase of 27.21% year-on-year [1] - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to reach 20.1 billion, 21.0 billion, and 22.2 billion yuan respectively, indicating a stable growth trajectory [4] - The company maintains a strong cash reserve of approximately 12 billion yuan, supporting its high dividend policy [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has effectively optimized its domestic trade capacity, alleviating supply pressure in the domestic market, which has led to improved profitability despite a decline in volume [2] - The foreign trade leasing business has capitalized on high market demand, with foreign revenue reaching 1.41 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 146% [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for small vessels, enhancing its leasing opportunities [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanghai Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [9] Core Views - Shanghai Bank demonstrates steady growth in performance, with an increase in net interest margin quarter-on-quarter, and state-owned capital increase reflects long-term development recognition [1][3] - The bank's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 4.0% and 2.8% year-on-year, respectively, with the growth rate of revenue slightly declining compared to the first half of 2025 [2][3] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.18% as of the end of Q3 2025, while the provision coverage ratio improved by 11 percentage points to 255% [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q1-Q3 2025, Shanghai Bank's revenue and net profit increased by 4.0% and 2.8% year-on-year, with the growth rates showing a slight decline and improvement compared to H1 2025 [2][3] - Key drivers included a decrease in the effective tax rate to 14.3% and a rise in other non-interest income by 14.7% year-on-year, attributed to a low base in Q3 2024 and realization of bond investment gains [3] - However, asset impairment losses increased by 11.1% year-on-year, and the growth of interest-earning assets slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2% as of Q3 2025 [3] Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for Q3 2025 rose by 7 basis points to 1.17%, primarily due to improved funding costs [4] - The asset yield decreased by 2 basis points to 2.73%, influenced by lower new loan rates and market interest rates, while the cost of liabilities fell by 10 basis points to 1.55% [4] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.18%, with the attention loan ratio increasing by 4 basis points to 2.08% [5] - The provision coverage ratio improved by 11 percentage points to 255% as of Q3 2025 [5] Shareholding Changes - The largest shareholder, Shanghai United (controlled by Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission), increased its stake by 6.97 million shares, indicating confidence in the bank's future [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 3.12%, 4.29%, and 4.95%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 16.96, 18.46, and 19.72 yuan [7] - The target price is set at 14.22 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.84 for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 51% from the current price [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth with a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 1.41 billion and 416 million respectively [1] - The launch of Sourcing AI 2.0 is expected to enhance buyer decision-making efficiency by 35%, indicating a strong focus on AI-driven solutions [4] - The company is projected to benefit from AI-driven cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with revenue forecasts of 1.9 billion, 2.1 billion, and 2.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the gross margin was 79.5%, with a slight decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 29.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points [2] - The company reported a revenue of 4.87 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth, although net profit decreased by 2% [1][2] - The number of paid members on the platform increased to 29,214 by the end of Q3 2025, showing a growth of 2,546 members compared to the end of Q3 2024 [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its buyer traffic, particularly in diverse markets such as the Middle East, which saw a 45% increase in traffic [3] - The introduction of Sourcing AI 2.0 aims to create a smart collaborative ecosystem for both buyers and sellers, enhancing the overall user experience [4] - The company is positioned as a core player in the AI Agent sector, with expectations of continued growth driven by AI integration and scale effects [5]

宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 31 日 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 10 月 PMI：供需均有所放缓，新动能延续扩张 —2025 年 10 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 10 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，说 明经济有所放缓。从结构上看，制造业企业生产和市场需求均有所回落，或 与"十一"假期前部分需求提前释放有关。10 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.0%，位于临界点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体稳定。综合来看，我们 认为，10 月经济活动相较上月或有所放缓，但总体仍有望保持韧性。 结构上新动能延续扩张。高技术制造业、装备制造业 PMI 分别为 50.5%、 50.2%，继续位于扩张区间，新动能明显高于制造业总体水平，行业支撑作用 持续显现。此外，消费品行业 PMI 为 50.1%处于扩张区间，高耗能行业 PMI 为 47.3%，较上月有所回落，景气有所分化。 ❑ 10 月供给侧扩张速度有所放缓，大型企业保持扩张 10 月生产指数为 49.7%，较上月回落 2.2 个百分点，表明制造业生产有所放缓， 同时，生产相关的原材 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the cross-border apparel retail sector, transitioning from a broad product distribution model to a brand-focused strategy. It has successfully incubated 10 self-owned brands with over 100 million in revenue by the end of 2024 [1][4]. - The cross-border e-commerce industry is experiencing differentiation, with brand-oriented sellers expected to break through amidst a mature market. The industry has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 24% from 2018 to 2022, despite a slowdown in growth due to supply pressures and international circumstances [2]. - The company is enhancing its operational management capabilities through a brand-focused strategy and agile organizational structure, which includes a small front-end and a large middle platform to support agile teams [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Brand Transformation and Growth - The company has seen significant revenue growth, with sales increasing from 5.3 billion to 10.3 billion from 2020 to 2024, achieving a CAGR of 18%. The brand transformation has led to a notable increase in market share and brand recognition [20][21]. - The core business of apparel and accessories is growing rapidly, with projected revenue growth rates of 59% for apparel and 34% for non-apparel categories in 2024 [22]. 2. Industry Environment and Trends - The cross-border e-commerce market in China has expanded from 2.8 trillion yuan in 2018 to 6.6 trillion yuan in 2022, with a forecasted growth to 10.4 trillion yuan by 2025 [36][37]. - The B2B model dominates the cross-border e-commerce landscape, accounting for nearly 70% of the market, while B2C is gaining traction and is expected to continue growing due to changing consumer behaviors [38]. 3. Operational Efficiency and Digitalization - The company is implementing a fully digitalized supply chain and flexible production system, which enhances operational efficiency and supports the rapid production of small batches [3][29]. - The organization is structured to support agile teams focused on specific consumer needs, backed by a robust digital management and assessment mechanism [3]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.7 billion, 15.5 billion, and 19.1 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a consistent growth rate of 23% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.8 billion yuan in the same years, reflecting growth rates of 59%, 58%, and 26% [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit growth of 31% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a net profit margin increase of 3.4 percentage points [1] - The company is a leading player in the global electric tool accessory market, holding over 50% market share, and has established a global presence to mitigate potential tariff risks [2] - The company has substantial cash reserves, amounting to 1.8 billion yuan, which supports its growth in new business areas [3] - The company is actively expanding into the new energy sector and has a stable development in high-end equipment manufacturing [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.48 billion, 2.72 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 332 million, 370 million, and 407 million yuan [4] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9% year-on-year, while net profit reached 230 million yuan, an increase of 15.2% [1] - The company’s Q3 2025 revenue was 520 million yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 71.91 million yuan, up 30.7% [1] - The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 0.75, 0.84, and 0.92 yuan, respectively [5]

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.8%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 1.9%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.1%, the ChiNext Index fell by 1.8%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.2% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were steel (+0.9%), non-ferrous metals (+0.8%), utilities (+0.1%), transportation (+0.1%), and banking (+0.1%). The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-2.8%), electronics (-2.2%), defense and military (-2.0%), media (-1.9%), and comprehensive (-1.8%) [4] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 24,217 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 13.64 billion Hong Kong dollars [4] Important Insights Fixed Income Credit Bonds - The report defines exiting the low-interest rate environment as the 10-year government bond yield rising trend-wise above 2%. It notes that overseas economies typically exit low rates due to a combination of improving fundamentals and tightening monetary policy. In contrast, while China's economy is in a mild recovery phase, there is a lack of fundamental and policy support for a significant rise in interest rates in the short term, suggesting that the low-interest rate environment may persist for a longer duration. Based on overseas experiences, the median duration for major economies to exit low rates is 4.77 years, implying that China may require an additional 4 years to exit this phase [5] Macroeconomic Research - The report discusses the hawkish guidance from Powell regarding a potential rate cut in December, stating that there is "no conclusion yet." Market expectations for rate cuts may narrow, with no change in viewpoints. The driving factors include data releases, and there is a focus on the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart normalizing balance sheet expansion in 2026 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in performance, with a 35% year-on-year growth in net profit for Q3 2025, exceeding expectations [1] - The company has officially launched its H shares for global sale, aiming to establish an international capital platform [2] - The company has secured new orders worth 714 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with notable contributions from automotive electronics and safety sectors [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 458 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, up 19% [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 18.3%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with automotive electronics and safety business margins at 20.8% and 16.4%, respectively [1] - The company forecasts revenues of 645 billion, 665 billion, and 710 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 15.3 billion, 18.3 billion, and 21.6 billion yuan [5] Business Development - The company has initiated a significant procurement contract with Zhiyuan for humanoid robots, marking its entry into the robotics sector with a focus on automotive parts manufacturing [3] - The company has received major orders in its core business, including a 50 billion yuan order for smart driving domain controllers and a 150 billion yuan order for intelligent driving [4] - Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures are ongoing, with expansions in production facilities and strategic relocations of operations to enhance profitability [4]

❑ 事件：公司发布 2025 年 9 月销售月报 2025 年 9 月份，公司销售商品猪 557.3 万头，同比增长 11.05%，主要得益于公司 生产经营规划及生产效率提升；商品猪销售均价 12.88 元/公斤，同比降低 30.94%；商品猪销售收入 90.66 亿元，同比降低 22.46%。2025 年 1 月至 9 月， 公司共销售商品猪 5732.3 万头，同比增长 27.0%；销售仔猪 1157.1 万头，同比 增加 151.2%。 ❑ 生猪养殖持续精进，成本优势稳步扩大 公司降本增效成果显著，养殖成本进入加速下行通道。2025 年 9 月公司生猪养 殖完全成本已降至 11.6 元/公斤左右，并计划在年底降至 11 元/公斤，成本下降来 源于生产成绩改善与单位期间费用下降。为实现成本的进一步突破，公司明确了 三大核心降本路径：1）种猪育种：依托全产业链优势，综合考量繁殖性能、生 长性能及屠宰经济价值进行选育，品种改良已成为当前成本下降的关键驱动力； 2）健康管理：通过持续推进疾病净化，提升猪群整体健康水平，以挖掘其生长 潜力；3）人才与管理：缩小内部场线间的成本离散度，推动落后场线向成本已 低于 1 ...