Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recommended core allocation order for February is A-shares > US stocks > copper > gold > US Treasuries [1][10] - In 2026, the core macro - narrative may revolve around the "Big MAC" trade, with the Trump administration's actions likely aimed at winning the mid - term elections [16] - The victory - centered macro - narrative framework constructed by the Trump administration may face a major test in the mid - term elections, and the global macro - environment may experience significant fluctuations in 2026, with long - term trends such as risk - aversion and de - dollarization continuing [5][44] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Macro Trading Main Lines Monthly Main Line 1: Geopolitical risks may rise - The US's cross - border arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro may be the fuse for rising geopolitical risks in 2026, and it may strengthen the Trump administration's motivation for external military intervention [17] - Geopolitical events may be used by Trump to boost his support rate. If the election situation is unfavorable, the Trump administration may provoke geopolitical conflicts to transfer internal contradictions and boost support [18][20] - Geopolitical risks may remain high, strengthening investors' risk - aversion demand. The tense situation between the US and Iran and the US's actions around Greenland may lead to market concerns and drive up the prices of oil and gold [21] Monthly Main Line 2: The game over the Fed's independence may cause continuous disturbances - The Trump administration's frictions with the Fed have intensified. The administration may be trying to intervene in the Fed's independence to achieve the resonance of fiscal, monetary, and credit cycles to support the mid - term elections [22][26] - The core obstacle lies in the monetary policy. The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts in January 2026 conflicts with the Trump administration's desire for rapid and significant rate cuts. Also, the rising US Treasury yields during the rate - cut cycle make the Fed more cautious [30][32] - Even if Kevin Warsh takes over as the Fed chairman, disturbances around the Fed's independence and subsequent monetary policy paths will likely continue. Warsh's "balance - sheet reduction rate - cut" idea conflicts with the Trump administration's policies, and he may face challenges in maintaining the Fed's independence while meeting the Trump administration's demands. Additionally, internal differences within the Fed and the limited potential for rate cuts may also affect the Fed's policy decisions [34][35][39] Annual Main Line: The victory narrative faces the mid - term election test - The Trump administration's victory - centered narrative framework may face a test in the mid - term elections. To boost support, the administration may adopt a more aggressive approach, and the global macro - environment may fluctuate significantly in 2026, with risk - aversion and de - dollarization trends continuing [44] 2. Monthly Asset Performance Review - In January, risk assets performed well, while the global bond market was mediocre. Precious metals like gold and silver continued their strong performance, with gold and silver rising by 13% and 43% respectively. Crude oil rebounded, and the Asian stock market outperformed the US and European markets, with the South Korean stock market being the most outstanding. A - shares showed structural differentiation, and the US dollar depreciated while the Japanese yen appreciated significantly [47][49] - **Gold**: In January, gold prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts but dropped 9% on the last trading day due to the Fed's decision to pause rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman. In the long term, the core drivers for gold price increases remain, but in the short term, there is technical adjustment pressure [7][52] - **Silver**: In January, silver prices first soared and then plunged. The sharp rise was mainly due to its high - volatility and speculative nature and the overall boost of the precious - metal sector by geopolitical risks. The long - term outlook is positive due to its financial and industrial attributes, but in the short term, it may continue to fluctuate widely [8][60][71] - **Copper**: In January, LME copper prices fluctuated at a high level, rising 4.6% for the month. After the adjustment stabilizes, copper may become a new potential target for speculation in the commodity market. The current high gold - copper ratio and the increasing demand from emerging industries are favorable factors [9][73][74] 3. Monthly Asset Allocation Suggestions - Based on the risk - parity model and subjective logic judgment, the recommended core allocation order for February is A - shares > US stocks > copper > gold > US Treasuries [10] - **Equity**: A - shares are highly recommended, especially small - cap stocks in February. US stocks are moderately recommended, with long - term positive trends. Japanese stocks are also moderately recommended, while Hong Kong stocks are moderately under - recommended [81][82] - **Bonds**: Chinese bonds are moderately under - recommended in general, while credit bonds and convertible bonds are moderately recommended. US Treasuries are highly recommended, with short - term bonds having more downward yield potential [82] - **Commodities**: Gold and copper are highly recommended. Gold is supported in the long term but faces short - term adjustment pressure. Copper has long - term demand support but may have higher short - term volatility [82] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index and the RMB are moderately recommended. The US dollar index may rebound in the short term but may decline again in the long term. The RMB has a positive outlook, but the appreciation space may be limited in the early stage of economic recovery [83]

- The report does not include any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis, construction, or testing results. It primarily focuses on market dynamics, fund flows, and sectoral trends without detailing quantitative methodologies or factor-based approaches[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to turn profitable in Q4 2025, with a projected net profit of between 0.03 billion to 0.63 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery from a loss of 3.30 billion yuan in the same quarter of 2024 [2] - The company has diversified its operations across multiple sectors including lithium batteries, consumer electronics, photovoltaics, and medical fields, which supports its growth strategy [3] - The company has successfully expanded its overseas business, achieving a 192.5% year-on-year increase in new overseas orders in the first half of 2025, totaling 18.88 billion yuan [3] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company is projected to have a net profit of between -8.5 billion to -9.1 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [2] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 4.1 billion yuan in 2026 and 7.4 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 81% in 2027 compared to 2026 [5] - Revenue is forecasted to decline by 10% in 2025 but is expected to rebound with a growth of 47% in 2026 and 23% in 2027 [7] Order and Revenue Growth - The company received new orders worth 100.85 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 117.5% [4] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had a backlog of orders amounting to 100.85 billion yuan, a 46% increase compared to the previous year [4]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 05 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 02 月 05 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：今日上证指数上涨 0.85%，沪深 300 上涨 0.83%，科创 50 下跌 1.2%，中证 1000 下跌 0.02%，创业板指下 跌 0.4%，恒生指数上涨 0.05%。 ❑ 行业：今日表现最好的行业分别是煤炭（+7.58%)、建筑材料（+3.48%)、房地产（+2.97%)、交通运输 （+2.82%)、食品饮料（+2.33%)，表现最差的行业分别是传媒（-3.12%)、通信（-2.73%)、计算机（-1.7%)、电 子（-1.55%)。 ❑ 资金：今日全 A 总成交额为 25033 亿元，南下资金净流入 133.73 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商银行 邱冠华/杜秦川/徐安妮】南京银行（601009）公司深度：新动能，新头部 ——20260204 ❑ ...

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 饮料乳品 新乳业(002946) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 产品竞争力突出，低温龙头势能延续，打开中期利润空间 ——新乳业推荐报告 投资要点 ❑ 一句话逻辑 低温奶龙头，净利率提升幅度和时间跨度有望超预期，打开中期利润空间。 ❑ 超预期点及驱动因素 市场认为：公司近年来净利率弹性多源于原奶成本红利，因此原奶若企稳回升， 公司的净利率会承压。 我们认为：未来三年公司净利率弹性可期。 驱动因素如下： 1、产品结构优化：一方面，公司产品力α突出，近年来公司新品收入贡献持续 超过双位数，有利推动产品结构优化。朝日唯品、活润、24 小时、初心、今日 鲜奶铺五款全国化低温大单品近年来均有亮眼表现，其中：（1）我们预计活润 25 年或实现高速增长，更是有望在低温酸这个竞争激烈的赛道成为现象级十亿 级大单品，26 年继续在功能化方向上推新发力；（2）朝日唯品在山姆持续推出 芭乐风味发酵乳、焦糖布丁、玫瑰红曲酒酿酪乳等火爆单品。我们认为，"爆品 制造机"背后是公司产品创新研发能力的系统化打造和持续兑现。另一方面，前 期并购的区域子公司中，仍有很多低端产品有结构优化空间。 2、D ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in PCB supply, expanding from consumer electronics into AI computing and advanced communication boards, with potential for exceeding expectations in computing-related business [1] - The company is accelerating its investment in AI PCB capacity, targeting high-potential markets such as servers, AI edge devices, and low-orbit satellites, with significant investments in Thailand and other locations to strengthen its global product matrix [2] - The company continues to demonstrate technical advantages by developing advanced HDI products suitable for GPUs and high-speed transmission interfaces, leveraging its SLP technology for optical communication applications [3] - The parent company is increasing investments in AI server PCB products, with plans to expand production capacity in multiple factories, leading to a significant expected increase in related revenues in 2026 [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 415.92 billion, 490.54 billion, and 580.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.4%, 17.9%, and 18.3% respectively; net profit is expected to reach 45.98 billion, 55.76 billion, and 72.44 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27.0%, 21.3%, and 29.9% [5] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 415.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.36%; net profit is expected to be 4,597.79 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 27.00% [12] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.98 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.13 [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the low-temperature milk segment, with expected improvements in net profit margins that may exceed market expectations, thereby opening up mid-term profit potential [1] - The market perceives that the company's recent net profit margin elasticity is largely due to the cost benefits from raw milk, suggesting that any stabilization or increase in raw milk prices could pressure margins. However, the report anticipates that net profit margin elasticity will remain promising over the next three years [2] Summary by Sections Product Competitiveness and Growth Drivers - The company has optimized its product structure, with significant contributions from new products, which have consistently exceeded double-digit revenue growth. Key products include "Huirun," "Asahi Weipin," and others, with expectations for "Huirun" to achieve rapid growth and become a major product in the competitive low-temperature yogurt market [2] - The direct-to-consumer (D2C) channel is being prioritized, allowing the company to reach consumers effectively through e-commerce in high-tier cities and home delivery in lower-tier cities, leading to lower costs and higher profit margins [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 112.7 billion, 121.9 billion, and 131.4 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.7%, 8.1%, and 7.8% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 7.1 billion, 8.6 billion, and 10.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.0%, 21.5%, and 18.9% respectively [4] - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20x for 2027, reflecting an upward adjustment in the investment rating [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in PCB supply, expanding from consumer electronics into AI computing and advanced communication boards, with potential for exceeding expectations in computing-related business [1] - The company is accelerating its investment in AI PCB capacity, targeting high-potential markets such as servers, AI edge devices, and low-orbit satellites, with significant investments in Thailand and new industrial land in Huai'an [2] - The company continues to demonstrate technical advantages by developing advanced HDI products suitable for GPUs and high-speed transmission interfaces, leveraging its SLP technology for optical communication applications [3] - The parent company is increasing investments in AI server PCB products, with plans to expand production capacity in Huai'an and Thailand, leading to a significant expected increase in related revenues in 2026 [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 415.92 billion, 490.54 billion, and 580.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.4%, 17.9%, and 18.3% respectively; net profit is expected to reach 45.98 billion, 55.76 billion, and 72.44 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27.0%, 21.3%, and 29.9% [5][12]

昆仑万维(300418) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 游戏Ⅱ A 股稀缺大模型及出海应用龙头，从纯投入期到兑现期 ——昆仑万维深度报告 投资要点 一句话逻辑 公司已完成"算力—模型—AI 应用"AI 全产业链布局，短剧业务 25 年年化流水 突破 2.4 亿美元验证商业化能力，DramaWave 短剧平台等 MRR 增长曲线陡峭， 天工超级智能体开启 AI 搜索、AI 音乐、AI 社交等生产力场景第二增长曲线，26 年将从投入期转向兑现期。 超预期逻辑 1）短剧出海商业化强度超预期：DramaWave 平台 8 月已跃居海外短剧收入榜第 三位，25 年 12 月环比增长 35.4%，位列收入榜第四。25 年 12 月下载量环比上涨 超 90%，成为 Top 15 中涨幅最高的产品。预计 25 年短剧收入同比增长 900%至 16.8 亿元，26-27 年持续加速增长，成为核心现金流引擎。 2）AI 智能体商业化落地或提前突破：公司先后发布并开源多款行业领先模型， 搭建全链路 AI 应用矩阵，以天工超级智能体为核心，联动 AI Developer、AI 视 频、A ...

昆仑万维(300418) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 1）短剧出海商业化强度超预期：DramaWave 平台 8 月已跃居海外短剧收入榜第 三位，25 年 12 月环比增长 35.4%，位列收入榜第四。25 年 12 月下载量环比上涨 超 90%，成为 Top 15 中涨幅最高的产品。预计 25 年短剧收入同比增长 900%至 16.8 亿元，26-27 年持续加速增长，成为核心现金流引擎。 2）AI 智能体商业化落地或提前突破：公司先后发布并开源多款行业领先模型， 搭建全链路 AI 应用矩阵，以天工超级智能体为核心，联动 AI Developer、AI 视 频、AI 音乐、AI 游戏与 AI 社交产品，全面覆盖 C 端与 B 端需求，平台影响力 与商业化能力显著提升。25H1 AI 软件技术收入已达 6500 万元，验证商业化雏 形，26 年有望实现规模化收入。 3）世界模型技术卡位领先全球：公司 8 月开源 Matrix 3D 模型，Matrix-Game 2.0 则为交互式世界模型的升级版本，是业内首个在通用场景下实现实时长序列交互 生成的开源方案，可复用于游戏、影视、具身智能，为未来增 ...