❑ 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/陈冀/祁星】宏观专题研究：美国国家资本主义苗头渐露——20250901 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 03 日 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 浙商早知道 市场总览 2025 年 09 月 03 日 ❑ 资金：周二沪深两市总成交额为 28749 亿元，南下资金净流入 92.8 亿港元。 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 重要观点 ： 021-80106048 重要点评 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周二上证指数下跌 0.5%，沪深 300 下跌 0.7%，科创 50 下跌 2.1%，中证 1000 下跌 2.5%，创业板指下跌 2.9%，恒生指数下跌 0.5%。 ❑ 行业：周二表现最好的行业分别是银行（+2.0%)、公用事业（+1.0%)、家用电器（+0.9%)、汽车（+0.4%)、石油 石化（+0.4%)，表现最差的行业分别是通信（-5.7%)、计算机（-4.1%)、电子（-3.9%)、国防军工（-2.6%)、建筑 材料（-2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.54%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was only 10 million yuan, down 80.66% year-on-year. The revenue growth was mainly due to increased business volume in international and new energy sectors, while profit was pressured by upstream price adjustments and maintenance of shipping vessels [1][2] - The new round of regulatory policies for vehicle transportation is expected to accelerate the exit of non-compliant capacity, which will help restore reasonable freight rates in the industry. As a leading compliant transportation enterprise, the company is well-positioned to capture more transportation demand and increase market share [2] - The peak of depreciation costs is expected to pass, leading to continuous optimization of cost structure. The company purchased nearly 2,400 middle-axle transport vehicles in 2017-2018, and the depreciation period is expected to end starting in the second half of 2025, significantly reducing costs and enhancing profit elasticity [2] - The company is steadily advancing its international and new energy businesses, establishing a multi-modal transport network and focusing on three main directions in the new energy sector: energy storage products, hazardous materials logistics, and integrated solutions for solar energy [2] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 79 million yuan in 2025, 130 million yuan in 2026, and 168 million yuan in 2027. The company is expected to benefit significantly from the supply-side clearing and freight rate recovery brought about by the regulatory policies [4][2] - The forecasted operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.984 billion yuan, 5.676 billion yuan, and 6.415 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.38%, 13.90%, and 13.00% [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.13 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.28 yuan, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a "1+6+N" adjustment strategy in its department stores, with visible results from the ongoing renovations in various store formats [2] - The supermarket segment has seen a 15% increase in customer traffic and a 14.7% increase in POS sales after renovations, with a 23.4% increase in net gross profit [2] - The electrical appliance segment is upgrading its direct sales stores and has launched several new experience centers [2] - The automotive trade segment has adjusted nine stores to enhance the sales proportion of new energy vehicles [2] - The company's gross margin improved significantly to 28.43%, up 1.78 percentage points year-on-year, and down 5.33% in total operating costs [2] Financial Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.45%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 774 million yuan, an increase of 8.74% [8] - The company expects to achieve operating revenues of 17.493 billion yuan, 18.069 billion yuan, and 18.990 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.380 billion yuan, 1.481 billion yuan, and 1.590 billion yuan [9] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 9.36, 8.72, and 8.12 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue of 348 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.48%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.28 million yuan, down 69.84% year-on-year [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased depreciation and amortization, alongside a decrease in gross margin by 7.43 percentage points to 42.63% due to changes in product and customer structure [2] - The company is focusing on high-end consumer electronics and expanding its market presence, with significant growth in the automotive paint business, which saw revenue increase by 109.60% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively collaborating with major clients in the high-end consumer electronics sector, enhancing its technical capabilities and expanding its product offerings [3] - In the automotive sector, the company is strengthening its position in interior components while accelerating the expansion into exterior parts, with a focus on collaborative development with leading manufacturers [4] - The company is also venturing into emerging fields, particularly in solid-state battery technology, where it has developed integrated solutions for insulation frame printing equipment and materials [5] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 93.19 million yuan, 176 million yuan, and 252 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 67.75, 35.88, and 25.08 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 348 million yuan, a 7.48% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 69.84% to 12.28 million yuan [1] - The gross margin decreased by 7.43 percentage points to 42.63% due to product and customer structure changes [2] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end consumer electronics, expanding its market share, and has seen significant growth in the automotive paint sector [2][4] - Collaborations with major clients in the high-end consumer electronics market are ongoing, with new projects being developed [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability as production increases and operational efficiencies improve [2] - The forecasts for net profit growth indicate a positive trend, with significant increases expected in the coming years [6]

投资要点 ❑ 英科医疗披露 2025H1 业绩： 2025H1 公司实现营业收入 49.13 亿元，同比+9%，实现归母净利润 7.10 亿元，同 比+21%，扣非后归母净利润 4.00 亿元，同比-18%；25Q2 单季公司实现营业收入 24.20 亿元，同比+5%，实现归母净利润 3.58 亿元，同比+2.5%，扣非后归母净利 润 1.54 亿元，同比-53%。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 医疗器械 英科医疗(300677) 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 02 日 经营韧性凸显，盈利弹性可期 ——英科医疗 2025H1 业绩点评报告 ❑ 扣非后下滑较多主要受理财公允价值变动计入非经影响 25Q2公司交易性金融资产增多，交易性金融资产109亿元，同比增长55.4亿元。 而交易性金融资产的公允价值变动收益更多计入非经常性损益。2025H1 公司金 融资产&金融负债产生的公允价值变动收益 2.28 亿元，同比+151%，因此对扣非 后归母净利润的影响较大。25Q2 单季我们测算公司主营业务净利润（剔除息差 收入/汇兑/理财等因素影响）2.3 亿元，表现符合我们预期。 ❑ Q2 为公司业绩低点，看好下半年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company's traditional business operations are stable, with a slight year-on-year increase in performance for the first half of 2025. The revenue for H1 2025 was 1.482 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.07% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 148 million yuan, an increase of 0.66% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is actively promoting the construction of strategic emerging industry projects, including the Ningxia Xin Hua fragrance project and the Jiangsu Xin Rui fragrance project, which are expected to enter trial production in the second half of the year. The company is also expanding into lithium resources and high-end chemicals, with projects accelerating towards trial production [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.482 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.07% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 148 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.66%. The weighted average return on equity was 6.05%, down 0.49 percentage points year-on-year. The gross profit margin was 22.98%, up 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 11.60%, up 0.13 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 717 million yuan, a decrease of 2.97% year-on-year and a decrease of 6.22% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 77 million yuan, an increase of 7.77% year-on-year and an increase of 7.00% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] Business Segments - The demand for fatty amine products remains stable, contributing 768 million yuan in revenue for H1 2025, an increase of 4.62% year-on-year. However, the organic solvent segment faced challenges, with revenue of 173 million yuan, a decrease of 28.06% year-on-year due to falling prices [2] - The synthetic fragrance segment saw a revenue of 382 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.31%, despite a decline in average prices [2] Future Growth Prospects - The company is expected to see growth driven by its synthetic fragrance and lithium resource businesses. Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 307 million yuan, 373 million yuan, and 451 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.59 yuan, 1.94 yuan, and 2.34 yuan. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18.64, 15.33, and 12.69 for the respective years [4][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance with a total revenue of 2.148 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing an 8.51% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 480 million yuan, which is a 77.95% increase year-on-year [1] - The potassium fertilizer industry is experiencing a recovery, with the average price of potassium chloride increasing by 20.44% year-on-year in H1 2025, and a significant rebound in prices observed in Q2 2025 [2] - The company is actively diversifying its resource portfolio by acquiring a phosphate mine, indicating a strategic move towards multi-resource development [4] - Future revenue projections are optimistic, with expected revenues of 4.466 billion yuan, 5.088 billion yuan, and 6.560 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a significant increase in net profit forecasts [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.148 billion yuan, with a net profit of 480 million yuan, marking a substantial increase compared to the previous year [1] - The Q2 2025 results showed a revenue of 1.193 billion yuan, a 10.20% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 276 million yuan, reflecting a 160.71% increase year-on-year [1] Industry Outlook - The potassium chloride average price in H1 2025 was 2,943.20 yuan/ton, up 20.44% year-on-year, with a notable increase to 3,276 yuan/ton by August 27, 2025, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2] - The import volume of potassium chloride decreased slightly in H1 2025, but the company maintained growth in production and sales, with H1 production at 596,900 tons and sales at 597,400 tons [2] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting management's confidence in future growth [3] Strategic Acquisitions - The company is expanding its resource base through the acquisition of a 72% stake in a phosphate mine, which is expected to enhance its operational capabilities and diversify its product offerings [4] Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its earnings forecast upwards, expecting revenues of 4.466 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected at 1.140 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company has shown a 12% year-on-year growth in performance for the first half of 2025, with port machinery orders increasing by 27%, indicating an accelerating growth trend [1][2] - The company is positioned as a global leader in port machinery with a market share of 70%, benefiting from automation upgrades and expansion into new product categories [3] - Future growth drivers include industry renewal demands, after-market services, product category expansion, and improvements in governance within the offshore engineering sector [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 17.4 billion yuan, a 1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, reflecting a 12.4% increase [1] - The gross margin was 10.8%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The revenue breakdown shows port machinery revenue at 10.7 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, while offshore equipment revenue was 3.7 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year [1] Order and Market Trends - New orders for port machinery reached 3.14 billion USD in the first half of 2025, a 27% year-on-year increase, while offshore and steel structure projects saw a significant decline in new orders [2] - The company has maintained a leading position in the port machinery sector for 26 consecutive years, with a consistent market share above 70% since 2006 [3] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 760 million yuan, 846 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing growth rates of 42%, 11%, and 18% [4][5] - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 32, 28, and 24, respectively, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 1.44, 1.37, and 1.30 [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The essence of the victory narrative lies in the logic that victory equals justice, which is closer to a communication concept. The probability of continuous easing of Sino-US relations may be higher than that of escalation of confrontation. Steepening the US Treasury yield curve may have high cost-effectiveness, and interest rate cuts and order shocks are expected to form a double drive for the gold price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Victory Narrative Connotation - The victory narrative requires both "substance" and "appearance." The Trump administration seizes every political achievement for publicity to create a "substance" of victory and maximizes the use of ambiguous events through public opinion to form the "appearance" of victory. It is more of a communication concept, with objective facts as the basis and "secondary processing" as the key [2][15]. Victory Narrative Essence - The essence is the narrative logic that victory equals justice. The Trump administration needs to strengthen the victory narrative because Trump's maverick style conflicts with traditional politicians, and the internal camp opposition in the US is intensifying. The Trump administration emphasizes material interests and downplays ideology, and needs continuous victory to justify its actions and boost market sentiment [3][17]. Sino-US Relations from the Perspective of Victory Narrative - The complementary economic characteristics of China and the US are the basis for judging the current Sino-US relations. The inflation problem in the US hinders Trump's interest rate cut proposal, while stable or expanding Chinese exports to the US can help ease US inflation. Based on Trump's policy demands and the economic environment, the probability of continuous easing of Sino-US relations is higher than that of escalation of confrontation [4][27]. Trends of Major Asset Classes under the Background of Victory Narrative - For short - duration US Treasuries, the key is how much interest rate cut expectations are included in the current interest rate; for long - duration US Treasuries, risks such as secondary inflation from tariffs and fiscal deficit monetization cannot be ignored. A strategy of going long on short - duration and short on long - duration to steepen the curve may have high cost - effectiveness. For gold, interest rate cuts and order shocks are expected to form a double drive [5].

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 02 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 09 月 02 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 资金：9 月 1 日全 A 总成交额为 27776 亿元，南下资金净流入 119.42 亿港元。 重要推荐 【浙商汽车 刘巍/白浪】长城汽车（601633）公司深度：聚焦产品优势，开拓"高端+海外"差异化新赛道 ——20250831 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：9 月 1 日上证指数上涨 0.46%，沪深 300 上涨 0.6%，科创 50 上涨 1.18%，中证 1000 上涨 0.84%，创业板指 上涨 2.29%，恒生指数上涨 2.15%。 行业：9 月 1 日表现最好的行业分别是通信（+5.22%)、综合（+4.27%)、有色金属（+3.46%)、医药生物（+2.79%)、 电子（+1.42%)，表现最差的行业分别是非银金融（-1.28%)、银行（-1.03%)、家用电器（-0.54 ...