中国国航(601111) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 02 日 收入端：25Q3单位RPK营业收入0.607元，同比-2.6%；单位ASK营业收入0.499 元，同比-1.0%，主要因为行业票价下滑。 Q3 盈利小幅下滑，静待供需改善 ——中国国航 2025 三季报点评 投资要点 ❑ Q3 归母净利润 36.8 亿元，同比-11%，业绩略低于预期 2025 前三季度，营业总收入 1298 亿元，同比+1.3%，归母净利润 18.7 亿元，同 比+37.3%。其中 25Q3，营业总收入约 491 亿元，同比+0.9%，归母净利润 36.8 亿元，同比-11.3%，业绩略低于预期，我们认为主要因为非油成本高于预期。 ❑ 经营数据：25Q3 国内航线运力同比微降，客座率同比提升 运力供给维持低增长，客座率持续提升。25Q3 末，公司机队规模为 946 架，前 三季度净增 16 架。25Q3 公司 ASK、RPK 同比分别+2.0%、+3.6%，客座率 82.3%，同比+1pct。其中，国内航线 ASK 同比-0.5%，客座率 83.7%，同比 +1pct；国际航线 ASK 同比+9.4%，客座率 79.4%， ...

证券研究报告 钢铁周报：铁水回落盈利下滑，但权益走势受益 于低估值 行业评级：看好 2025 年 11 月 02 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格表现 3 2 | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年11月2日） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价 格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 955 | | 0 1% . | 18 . | 0% | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 641 | | - 0 4% . | 17 . | 9% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 622 | | 2 6% . | 24 . | 7% | | 块 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.054 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 91 million yuan, up 43.2% year-on-year [1] - The online sales channel is the main growth driver, with online revenue growing approximately 20% year-on-year, accounting for over 55% of total revenue [2] - The gross margin significantly improved to 44.7% in Q3 2025, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades and a decrease in raw material costs [3] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 2.976 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and a net profit of 232 million yuan, up 10.7% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 22.3% [1] - The company forecasts revenues of 4.593 billion yuan, 4.926 billion yuan, and 5.274 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 394 million yuan, 429 million yuan, and 462 million yuan [4]

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 4.8%, with quarterly estimates of 5.1%, 4.8%, 4.6%, and 4.7% respectively[15] - The contribution of trade surplus to GDP is expected to remain high, supported by resilient external demand, with a GDP growth target of approximately 5%[13] - The retail sales growth rate for 2026 is anticipated to be 4.1%, benefiting from policies like trade-in programs and the gradual lifting of restrictions[18] Policy Adjustments - The "extraordinary" counter-cyclical policies are likely to taper off in 2026, shifting towards a more prudent fiscal approach while focusing on technology investments[12] - The emphasis on self-reliance in technology is expected to be a key policy direction, with significant investments aimed at enhancing new productive forces[19] - The fiscal policy is projected to maintain a positive tone but will focus more on cross-cycle adjustments, with a slight reduction in the scale of fiscal spending[6] Market Trends - The equity market is expected to experience a structured trend characterized by low volatility dividends and technology growth, with a focus on companies that have completed capital expenditures[14] - The A-share market is anticipated to benefit from improved external demand and resilient industrial policies, aiming for significant growth in technology sectors[14] - The real estate sector is projected to see a decline in investment by approximately -10.4% in 2026, reflecting ongoing regulatory constraints[6] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected escalations in US-China tensions that could disrupt market sentiment and external demand pressures that may necessitate stronger domestic policy responses[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with Q3 revenue at 760 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 25% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11%. The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 50 million yuan, up 26% year-over-year and 2% quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin for the quarter was 23.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] - The company has acquired a 51% stake in Zhongshan Aoduo, which is expected to contribute 560 million yuan in revenue and an 8% net profit margin in 2024. The production capacity is gradually ramping up at the second phase of the Yangzhou die-casting plant and the second phase in Mexico [1][2] - The company is positioned as a leader in lightweight materials and has a comprehensive layout in the robotics industry, with significant progress in metal shell production and partnerships with leading domestic robotics companies [2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters, the company reported revenue of 2.09 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 19%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 17% year-over-year. The gross margin for this period was 22.3%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-over-year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 300 million yuan, an increase of 69% year-over-year [1] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 2.82 billion yuan, 3.39 billion yuan, and 4.09 billion yuan, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 230 million yuan, 310 million yuan, and 390 million yuan, respectively, with a CAGR of 30.2% [2][3]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 纺织制造 25Q3 业绩环比改善，国际化战略保障成长 ——伟星股份点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 25 三季报，25Q3 实现收入 12.9 亿元，同比+0.9%，归母净利润 2.1 亿 元，同比+3.0%；Q1-3 实现收入 26.3 亿元，同比+1.5%，归母净利润 5.8 亿元， 同比-6.5%，Q3 收入利润均环比改善，实现正增长，预计主要系美国对等关税安 排逐渐明朗化背景下，品牌应对冬装销售下单情绪改善，叠加公司积极布局国际 营销网络和越南产能拓展，海外收入延续增长趋势。 ❑ 预计 Q3 海外收入延续增长趋势，国际化战略持续推进 25Q3 收入同比+0.9%至 12.9 亿元，我们预计海外收入增长延续 25H1 趋势， 25H1 国内、海外收入分别-4.1%、+13.7%至 14.7、8.6 亿元，国内、海外产能占 比分别同比-0.6pp、+0.6pp 至 82%、18%，孟加拉和越南园区产能持续拓展、以 及公司国际化营销网络布局为海外业务扩张提供坚实基础，越南工业园 24 年投 产后产能逐渐爬坡，期待未来承载海外客户订单份额向上。 ❑ 毛利率稳步向上，费用率保持稳 ...

Core Insights - As of Q3 2025, the total management scale and share of public funds have steadily increased, but there is a divergence in the scale trends between equity and bond funds. The net value improvement has led to significant growth in mixed equity funds, while pure bond fund scales have declined. The public indexation level continues to deepen, with ETF scales reaching new highs. Under the expectation of a slow bull market, the expansion of balanced allocation secondary bond funds is evident [1][2][11]. Group 1 - The management scale and share of public funds have steadily increased, but there is a divergence in the scale trends between equity and bond funds. As of October 31, 2025, the share of equity funds reached 312,419 billion units, with a management scale of 53,875 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.12% and 26.16%. In contrast, bond fund shares reached 91,336 billion units, with a management scale of 107,585 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.82% and 1.41% [2][11]. - The public funds are increasingly passive, with significant expansion in secondary bond funds under balanced allocation. The share of passive equity index products increased by 3,103 billion units in Q3 2025. Benefiting from the rights attributes of secondary bond funds and the strong performance of the equity market under slow bull expectations, the share and scale of secondary bond funds have significantly expanded, increasing by 3,847 billion units compared to Q2 2025 [3][15][17]. Group 2 - Recent equity market indices have turned volatile, showing resilience during adjustments, highlighting the allocation value of mixed bond funds. In terms of monthly returns, since October, mixed first-level, mixed second-level, and convertible bond funds recorded returns of 0.43%, 0.20%, and -0.65%, significantly outperforming ordinary equity funds (-1.96%), mixed equity funds (-2.14%), and flexible allocation funds (-1.12%). The strong defensive attributes of fixed income plus products are evident, with the scale of convertible bonds held by public funds reaching a historical high of 352.9 billion yuan as of Q3 2025 [4][18][19]. - The demand side for convertible bonds remains strong despite a marginal decrease in supply, and the natural defensive attributes of mixed bond funds are expected to provide a sufficient safety cushion. The scale of secondary bond funds and passive bond indices has continued to increase, with quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 46.8% and 158.6%, respectively [4][18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Credit slowdown slows commercial banks' excess reserve consumption and reduces liquidity friction at month - and quarter - ends, while the central bank actively injects medium - and long - term liquidity, especially restarting treasury bond trading, are the two reasons for the continued loose narrow liquidity in November [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 11 月狭义流动性延续偏松的两个理由 - Credit slowdown is the basis for the endogenous loosening of narrow liquidity. Due to the weak real - economy financing demand and the change in the assessment method, banks' willingness to issue low - interest loans at month - and quarter - ends has decreased. On October 30, the yields of national and joint - stock bank acceptance bill rediscounts were all low, indicating "bill - for - loan" behavior and sufficient "broad credit" for banks to smoothly lend to non - bank institutions [2][10] - Economic leading indicators show that the real economy needs support, so the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy. The central bank has been net - injecting funds through operations like repurchase and MLF since June 2025, and will restart treasury bond trading. The amount and duration of this trading will affect the optimism of base - money replenishment [3][11] 2. 狭义流动性 2.1 央行操作：将重启国债买卖投放基础货币 - Short - term liquidity: From October 27 - 31, the central bank's net injection of pledged repurchase was 12008 billion yuan. As of October 31, the central bank's repurchase balance was 20680 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [12] - Medium - term liquidity: In October, the due amounts of outright repurchase and MLF were 13000 billion yuan and 7000 billion yuan respectively. The central bank's net injection of outright repurchase was 4000 billion yuan, and the net injection of MLF was 2000 billion yuan [13] 2.2 机构融入融出情况：符合月末宽松的特征 - Fund supply: On October 31, the net funds lent by large - scale banks (flow concept) were 3.2 trillion yuan, and the net lending balance was 4.2 trillion yuan, both at relatively high levels compared to the same period in previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.5 trillion yuan, at a neutral level. The net lending of joint - stock banks was - 25 billion yuan, also at a neutral level [16] - Fund demand: On October 31, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market was about 11.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 765 billion yuan from October 24. The leverages of the whole market and non - legal person products were 107% and 113% respectively, with different percentile positions since 2020 [22] 2.3 回购市场成交情况：跨月资金成本较低 - Fund volume and price: Last week, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, but the cross - month repurchase rate remained stable. The median daily trading volume was about 6.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8599 billion yuan from October 20 - 24. The median R001 was 1.44%, up about 6bp from last week. The liquidity friction was small [29] - Fund sentiment index: After a slight tightening during the tax period on the 27th and 28th, the cross - month fund situation became loose, and the fund sentiment index fell below 50 [30] 2.4 利率互换：基本持平 - After the news of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading, the 1 - year FR007 IRS and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rates dropped. On October 31, their weighted average rates were 1.53% and 1.59% respectively, with low percentile positions since 2020 [36] 3. 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力较小 3.1 下周政府债净缴款 - Last week, the net payment of government bonds was 1337 billion yuan. Next week, it is expected to be a net repayment of 382 billion yuan, with relatively small pressure [37] 3.2 当前政府债发行进度 - As of October 31, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.4%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 10361 billion yuan. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5%, with a remaining issuance space of 5454 billion yuan. The issuance of refinancing special bonds completed the annual task [39] 4. 同业存单：净融资规模继续回落，存单利率下行 4.1 绝对收益率 - On October 31, SHIBOR quotes changed little. The yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) of different maturities all declined compared to October 24, benefiting from the loose funds after the news of the central bank's treasury bond trading [43] 4.2 发行和存量情况 - From October 27 - 31, the primary issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 7349 billion yuan, a decrease of 2283 billion yuan from October 20 - 24. The proportion of different maturities changed, with 1M, 3M, and 9M increasing and 6M and 1Y decreasing [45] 4.3 相对估值 - On October 31, the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, and between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield were at certain percentile positions since 2020 [48]

11 月：资金动能减弱，月底再启动 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 本轮 A 股重估行情定价相对充分，游资、居民资金流入速率边际放缓，美元贬值趋势 的确立是下一轮行情启动的重要催化，时点在 11 月底。行业结构有较大切换，科技拥 挤度相对偏高，看好红利 ETF、券商 ETF、化工 ETF、恒生科技 ETF。 ❑ 如何判断下一轮行情的催化及时点？ 本轮行情资金活跃度减弱，美元贬值是下一阶段破局关键。资金面来看，本轮行 情定价充分，内资短期增量或有限，下一阶段需观察美元贬值趋势确立，这一时 点可能在 11 月底，最受益品种为恒生科技。 1、公募：从三季报来看，主动权益基金虽然总规模边际提升，但主要受市场上 涨影响，其总份额相较 Q2 进一步下滑近 6%，表明基民仍在赎回主动产品，这可 能受到基民"回本赎回"倾向等因素的影响。短期来看，主动权益或仍然难以获 得显著增量资金流入。 2、游资&散户：从我们的资金面监测模型结果来看，截至 10 月 31 日，游资活跃 度指标基本走平，相较前期的上行斜率明显放缓，而散户活跃度指标自 10 月 15 日以来持续小幅震荡回落，这均表明居民资金活跃度近期整体维持平稳。 3、外资：我们 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 物流 宏川智慧(002930) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 02 日 2025Q3 归母净利润同比下降 167%，静待景气回升 ——宏川智慧 2025 三季报点评 投资要点 ❑ 2025 三季报业绩：25Q3 归母净利润同比下降 167% 2025 年前三季度：2025 前三季度公司实现营业收入 8.8 亿元，同比-19.5%；归 母净利润-0.4 亿元，由盈转亏；经营性现金流净额 5.6 亿元，同比下降 22.66%， 现金流表现相对稳健。 2025Q3：24Q3 公司实现营业收入 2.85 亿元，同比-18.75%，实现归母净利润 -0.3 亿元，由盈转亏。 ❑ 2025Q3 毛利率有所下滑 25Q3 公司实现毛利率 35.6%，同比下滑 12.9pct，净利率-7.1%。公司业绩短期承 压的主要由于下游化工行业景气度低迷，公司核心经营指标出租率下滑。此外， 联营及合营公司盈利下滑导致公司前三季度投资收益同比减少 43.90%至 1558 万 元 ❑ 持续推进优质资产并购，股权激励彰显长期信心 截至 2025H1，公司运营罐容总计 518.44 万立方米，其中控股子公 ...