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上海沿浦:下游客户放量、财务压力减小,25Q2公司有望出现业绩拐点-20250607
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-07 13:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a performance inflection point in Q2 2025 due to increased downstream customer demand and reduced financial pressure [1][9] - The company has introduced its "automotive seat business" in its annual report, indicating a significant market opportunity with low domestic replacement rates [3] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 show strong growth, with expected revenues of 33 billion, 43 billion, and 48 billion respectively, and net profits of 2.5 billion, 3.5 billion, and 4.5 billion [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue decreased by approximately 24% due to weak downstream customer sales, particularly the significant drop in sales of the Wanjie M7 model [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 19%, a year-on-year increase of 6 percentage points, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin front-row products [2] - The company anticipates a total reduction of 455 million in cash outflows from financing from 2025 to 2028, along with a decrease in financial expenses by 72 million over the same period [2] Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the upcoming launches of the upgraded Wanjie M7 and the new M8 model, which are expected to significantly boost revenue in Q2 2025 [9] - The company is also exploring opportunities to become a supplier for rising automotive brands like Leap Motor, which is experiencing rapid sales growth [9] - The release of production capacity in Huizhou and Zhengzhou is expected to alleviate capacity constraints and enhance the company's core business performance [10]
债券市场专题研究:近期焦煤上涨对债市是否有影响?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-06 05:19
债券市场专题研究 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 06 日 近期焦煤上涨对债市是否有影响? ——债券市场专题研究 核心观点 本轮黑色系商品期货价格走强在技术面及基本面上均以消息面驱动的反弹为主,不构 成趋势性反转,因此对债市影响有限。 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 ❑ 从基本面及技术面如何理解焦煤主力合约价格异动上涨? 本轮黑色系商品期货价格走强更多或为下行趋势中的反弹而非反转,基本面来看 黑色系商品多数仍然供需格局偏弱,现货价格处于中期下行趋势中。从技术面来 看,领涨的焦煤品种主力合约在本轮反弹中出现的信号强于钢铁、铁矿石等品种, 但总体来看趋势仍旧偏弱,做多仍需谨慎入场。 ❑ 本轮焦煤主力合约价格异动上涨对债市影响如何? 对应债券市场,由于黑色系商品期货总体周期性价格走势较为一致,而黑色系商 品期货价格走强多数情形下同样会对债市形成压制。但综合前述分析,本轮黑色 系商品期货价格走强在技术面及基本面上均以消息面驱动的反弹为主,不构成趋 势性反转,因此对债市影响有限,对债市的关注点仍然应该落脚在资金面、央行 操作、中美谈判进展等方面。 ❑ 风险提示 技术分析具有一定局限性;宏观经济政策出 ...
浙商早知道-20250606
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-06 01:06
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 06 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 06 日 :王禾 执业证书编号:S1230512110001 :021-80105901 :wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/费瑾】宏观深度报告:稳定币详解——20250605 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势:6 月 5 日上证指数上涨 0.23%,沪深 300 上涨 0.23%,科创 50 上涨 1.04%,中证 1000 上涨 0.72%,创业板 指上涨 1.17%,恒生指数上涨 1.07%。 行业:6 月 5 日表现最好的行业分别是通信(+2.62%)、电子(+2.31%)、计算机(+2.12%)、传媒(+1.27%)、机 械设备(+0.98%),表现最差的行业分别是美容护理(-3.07%)、纺织服饰(-1.81%)、农林牧渔(-1.79%)、综合 (-1.3%)、医药生物(-1.01%)。 资金:6 月 5 日全 A 总成交额为 13169.62 亿元,南下资金净流入 ...
优刻得深度报告:从响应DeepSeek看优刻得,云计算价值重估进行时
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-06 00:23
证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | IT 服务Ⅱ 优刻得(688158) 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 05 日 从响应 DeepSeek 看优刻得,云计算价值重估进行时 ——优刻得深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 中国领先的第三方云计算服务商 公司是中国领先的第三方云计算服务商,以 IaaS(计算、存储、网络)、PaaS (数据库、缓存、容器)为核心,持续拓展大数据、人工智能等高附加值产品, 构建了完整的云计算产品矩阵。服务模式分为公有云、混合云与私有云,2024年 分别占收入比例为 50.61%、34.93%、3.50%。其中,公有云客户以移动互联、互 动娱乐、企业服务等互联网客户为主;混合云及私有云客户包括金融、政府机构 等。管理层专业背景深厚,董事长曾获"上海市科学技术奖一等奖"、"中国通 信学会科学技术奖(科技进步类)一等奖"等称号,曾在华为、腾讯等企业任 职,可引领公司快速响应行业变化、把握行业趋势。 ❑ DeepSeek 降低模型部署门槛,云计算厂商受益推理需求增加 DeepSeek 推出 R1 系列模型并遵循 MIT 开源协议,模型参数量仅为 660B,并提 供 1.5B-70B 系列蒸馏模型,大幅度降 ...
ESG体系下的AI研究(一):多维投资增效,防范伦理风险
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-05 14:23
证券研究报告 | 深度研究 | ESG 及绿色金融 深度研究 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 04 日 ESG 体系下的 AI 研究(一):多维投资增效,防范伦理风险 核心观点 随着大模型加速迭代,AI 有望快速实现大规模应用。面对 ESG 投资生态中的监管追 踪难、企业合规成本高、投资端数据获取分析困难等痛点,AI 能在多个环节帮助不同 参与者降本增效,通过智能、高效、创造性输出等特点,助力 ESG 投资打通生态链 条。目前 AI 正面影响与负面争议作用于多个行业,并与多方面的 ESG 议题相关,但 对 AI 治理的直接评估并不直接体现在 ESG 框架中,我们整理了全球实践情况,发现 将负责任 AI 原则与 ESG 框架相融合,可以建立 AI 伦理风险分析体系,为管控相关 投资风险提供思路。 ❑ AI 有望大规模应用,帮助完善 ESG 投资基础设施。 近期,AI 大模型迭代速度加快,模型热度在周度统计中都发生了较大变化,同 时算法优化成本降低,有望进一步加速大规模应用。AI 有助于解决 ESG 生态中 的多方痛点。对监管与国际机构而言,过去 ESG 政策追踪困难、追踪成本高, AI 通过广泛整合信息的动态 ...
美团-W:美团25Q1业绩点评:无惧外卖竞争,坚定生态投入-20250605
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-05 00:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - Meituan, as a leader in local lifestyle services, is expected to maintain its core competitive advantages despite short-term competition in the food delivery sector. The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 390.41 billion, CNY 445.04 billion, and CNY 507.46 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.65%, 13.99%, and 14.03% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Meituan's revenue increased by 18.1% year-on-year to CNY 86.557 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1.3%. Non-IFRS net profit rose by 46.2% to CNY 10.948 billion, also above expectations by 12.56% [6]. - The core local business revenue grew by 17.8% to CNY 64.325 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 1.49%. Operating profit increased by 39.1% to CNY 13.491 billion, exceeding expectations by 10.21% [6]. - New business revenue rose by 19.2% to CNY 22.232 billion, also above consensus by 1.54%, with operating losses reduced by 17.54% to CNY -2.273 billion [6]. Expense Management - Sales expenses increased by 11.96% to CNY 15.55 billion, primarily due to promotional and advertising costs. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 18% due to improved operational efficiency [6]. - R&D expenses rose by 15.44% to CNY 5.772 billion, reflecting increased investment in AI, while the R&D expense ratio slightly decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 6.67% [6]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is expected to see healthy growth with significant investments planned for the next three years, totaling over CNY 100 billion to support various merchants [6]. - The flash purchase segment continues to show strong growth, particularly in low-tier markets, with a significant increase in order volume during key promotional periods [6]. - The in-store travel segment is experiencing robust growth in lower-tier markets, with the launch of a membership program aimed at increasing transaction frequency and cross-selling efficiency [6]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company is expected to maintain its core advantages and solidify its platform ecosystem, despite potential short-term profit fluctuations due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector [6].
美团-W(03690):25Q1业绩点评:无惧外卖竞争,坚定生态投入
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-05 00:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - Meituan, as a leader in local lifestyle services, is expected to maintain its core competitive advantages despite short-term competition in the food delivery sector. The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 390.41 billion, CNY 445.04 billion, and CNY 507.46 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.65%, 13.99%, and 14.03% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Meituan's revenue increased by 18.1% year-on-year to CNY 86.557 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1.3%. Non-IFRS net profit rose by 46.2% to CNY 10.948 billion, also surpassing expectations by 12.56% [6]. - The core local business revenue grew by 17.8% year-on-year to CNY 64.325 billion, with operating profit increasing by 39.1% to CNY 13.491 billion, both exceeding consensus estimates [6]. - New business revenue increased by 19.2% year-on-year to CNY 22.232 billion, with operating losses reduced by 17.54% to CNY -2.273 billion, outperforming expectations [6]. Expense Management - Sales expenses rose by 11.96% year-on-year to CNY 15.55 billion, primarily due to increased promotional and advertising costs. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 18% due to improved operational efficiency [6]. - R&D expenses increased by 15.44% year-on-year to CNY 5.772 billion, driven by increased investments in AI. The R&D expense ratio slightly decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 6.67% [6]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is expected to see healthy growth with a focus on refined operations, supported by a planned investment of CNY 100 billion over the next three years [6]. - The flash purchase segment continues to show strong growth, particularly in low-tier markets, with significant increases in order volume during promotional periods [6]. - The in-store travel segment is experiencing robust growth in lower-tier markets, with the launch of the "Meituan Membership" program aimed at enhancing transaction frequency and cross-selling efficiency [6]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company is expected to maintain its core advantages and solidify its platform ecosystem, despite potential short-term profit fluctuations due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector [6].
浙商早知道-20250605
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-04 23:30
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 05 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 05 日 : 张延兵 执业证书编号:S1230511010020 : 021-80106048 : zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要点评 ❑ 大势:周三上证指数上涨 0.4%,沪深 300 上涨 0.4%,科创 50 上涨 0.5%,中证 1000 上涨 0.9%,创业板指上涨 1.1%,恒生指数上涨 0.6%。 ❑ 行业:周三表现最好的行业分别是美容护理(+2.6%)、综合(+2.5%)、纺织服饰(+2.4%)、通信(+1.8%)、轻工 制造(+1.6%),表现最差的行业分别是交通运输(-0.6%)、国防军工(-0.2%)、公用事业(-0.1%)、银行 (+0.0%)、石油石化(+0.4%)。 ❑ 资金:周三沪深两市总成交额为 11530 亿元,南下资金净流入 35.2 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】中力股份(603194)公司点评:拟建设泰国工厂推进全球化产能布局,智能 搬运机器人打开空间——20250603 ❑ 【浙商金属新材料 王南清/沈 ...
2025年6月大类资产配置月报:新一轮不确定性上行周期或开启-20250604
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-04 12:18
证券研究报告 | 金融工程月报 金融工程月报 报告日期:2025 年 06 月 04 日 新一轮不确定性上行周期或开启 ——2025 年 6 月大类资产配置月报 核心观点 关税风险+美债利率上行风险,新一轮不确定性上行周期或将开启,风险资产或将面临 一定调整压力,建议逢低配置黄金以提高组合防御性。 ❑ 关税风险+美债利率上行风险,新一轮不确定性上行周期或将开启。 4 月初美国对等关税政策宣布后,全球风险资产巨震,而后随着关税的部分暂停 及谈判的推进,A 股、美股、铜等主要大类资产均已基本修复对等关税以来的跌 幅,并于 5 月 15 日前后开始窄幅震荡,等待进一步的催化。短暂平静后,我们认 为新一轮不确定性上行周期或将开启:一方面,90 天的关税暂停窗口期即将于 7 月初结束,而目前美国尚未与除英国外的主要经济体达成贸易协定,由于关税暂 停窗口是否会继续延长仍存不确定性,随着时间推进,市场可能将逐步开始交易 关税不确定性的新一轮走高。另一方面,美债利率的上行风险似乎更加迫在眉睫。 5 月 28 日,美国国际贸易法院裁定暂停特朗普政府于 4 月 2 日宣布的对等关税政 策,虽然后续迅速反转,但美债市场的初期表现隐 ...
2025年中期策略展望:震中带韧,应对为王
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-04 09:45
证券研究报告 震中带韧,应对为王 ——2025年中期策略展望 2025年6月 浙商固收 | 分析师 | 覃汉 | 沈聂萍 | 崔正阳 | 郑莎 | 陈婷婷 | 章恒豪 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | qinhan@stocke.com. | shennieping@stocke. | cuizhengyang@stocke.c | zhengsha@stocke.co | chentinting01@stocke.c | zhanghenghao@stoc | | | cn | com.cn | om.cn | m.cn | om.cn | ke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080005 | S1230524020005 | S1230524020004 | S1230524080012 | S1230525050001 | S1230123090052 | 目 录 03 机构行为:曲线熊平,超额难寻 04 权益市场:生态重构,韧性向上 01 宏观叙事:关税博弈,东稳西荡 02 货币政策:中性偏松,精准调控 05 ...