Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the Americas Technology: Internet sector, including AMZN, UBER, and GOOGL, while highlighting a positive skew for stocks like Instacart (CART), DraftKings (DKNG), and Pinterest (PINS) based on favorable risk-reward scenarios [10][8]. Core Insights - The report identifies three key themes affecting the US Consumer Internet & Interactive Entertainment companies: increasing investment in AI, the health of the global digital consumer, and potential impacts of US policies on consumer demand and regulatory landscapes [1][2]. - There is a notable shift in AI investments from infrastructure to platform and application layers, with expectations for accelerated product launches in the next 12-18 months [7]. - The digital advertising landscape remains mixed, with strong performance in certain sectors like retail/eCommerce, while brand advertising shows signs of weakness [18][19]. Digital Advertising - Q4 results showed better-than-expected performance in digital advertising, with strong ad spend trends during the holiday season and healthy user engagement [18]. - Companies like GOOGL, META, and PINS reported notable revenue outperformance, driven by AI adoption and diversification into non-advertising revenue streams [18][19]. - The report anticipates continued focus on advertising and macroeconomic conditions into 2025, particularly regarding AI-related capital intensity and return on investment [22]. eCommerce - Q4 results in eCommerce were mixed, with AMZN outperforming peers despite high customer acquisition costs and a focus on loyalty programs [32]. - The trajectory of operating margins is expected to diverge in 2025, with AMZN and CHWY likely to maintain attractive incremental margins [32]. - Investor interest remains high regarding capital returns and potential buyback programs, particularly for AMZN [32]. Cloud Computing - AWS revenue trends were better than expected, while Google Cloud showed a deceleration in growth, attributed to capacity constraints impacting AI-related demand [39][40]. - Both companies are expected to continue investing heavily in cloud infrastructure to support AI opportunities, with a focus on return on invested capital [41]. Online Travel - The online travel sector demonstrated post-pandemic recovery, with growth rates slightly better than expectations [52]. - Key debates for investors include the normalized growth algorithm for online travel and the impact of generative AI on traffic dynamics [53]. Mobility, Local Commerce & Delivery - Q4 results in mobility and delivery sectors were generally in line with expectations, with UBER highlighting strong growth in the US market [65]. - Investors are focused on consumer spending trends, pricing dynamics, and the competitive landscape, particularly with the rise of autonomous vehicles [66].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report revises baseline tariff assumptions to include higher tariffs, particularly on product-specific categories such as autos, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals, which could lead to a significant increase in the effective tariff rate [2][9] - The expected increase in tariffs is projected to raise consumer prices and impact GDP growth negatively, with a peak hit to year-on-year GDP growth estimated at -0.8 percentage points under the new assumptions [3][28] - The report indicates a higher probability of recession, now estimated at 20%, due to the potential economic impact of larger tariffs [4][43] Summary by Sections Tariff Assumptions - The report anticipates further product-specific tariffs and reciprocal tariffs that could raise the effective tariff rate by approximately 10 percentage points, with a risk scenario suggesting a potential increase of up to 15 percentage points [2][10] - Current tariffs, including a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum and a 20 percentage point increase on imports from China, have already raised the effective tariff rate by about 3.3 percentage points [9][11] Economic Impact - The revised forecast for GDP growth in 2025 has been lowered to 1.7% from a previous estimate of 2.2%, reflecting the additional drag from larger tariffs [4][36] - Core PCE inflation is expected to rise to around 3% year-on-year under the new tariff assumptions, compared to a previous expectation of a decline to 2.1% [21][22] Policy and Market Reactions - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts in response to the economic risks posed by the new tariff environment, with two cuts expected in 2025 [47][49] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is expected to have a significant impact on business investment, contributing to a more cautious economic outlook [24][28]

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the 2025 US GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.7%, marking the first below-consensus forecast in 2½ years [1][3]. Core Insights - The downgrade is primarily due to more adverse trade policy assumptions and expectations of tariff-induced near-term economic weakness, with the average US tariff rate expected to rise by 10 percentage points this year [3][5]. - Tariffs are projected to subtract an estimated 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth over the next year, with only a minor offset from tax cuts and regulatory easing [8][12]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to reaccelerate to 3% later this year, leading to a forecast of two 25 basis point cuts by the Federal Reserve [13][16]. - The medium-term growth outlook in the Euro area has improved due to potential changes in German fiscal policy, with expected growth boosts of 0.5 percentage points in Germany and 0.25 percentage points in the Euro area over the next 2-3 years [16][17]. - Despite increased US tariffs, sentiment towards the Chinese economy has improved, with expectations of a gradual rise in AI's contribution to China's GDP growth starting in 2026 [20][21]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The US GDP growth forecast has been downgraded to 1.7% for 2025, influenced by adverse trade policies and tariff expectations [1][3]. - The average US tariff rate is expected to increase by 10 percentage points, significantly impacting consumer prices and real income [3][5][8]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise to 3%, prompting expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [13][16]. - The report maintains a dovish outlook for monetary policy in developed markets, particularly in response to tariff impacts [18]. Euro Area Growth - The report highlights an improved growth outlook for the Euro area, particularly due to changes in German fiscal policy, with expected growth boosts in the coming years [16][17]. China Economic Sentiment - Despite tariff increases, there is a noted improvement in sentiment towards the Chinese economy, with expectations of AI contributing more significantly to GDP growth starting in 2026 [20][21].

2025年3月10日 | 4:31PM GMT 欧洲经济分析 估算欧洲的军事需求 (摘要) Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 | iari.stehn@gs.com 品密国际 Filippo Taddei +44(20)7774-5458 filippo.taddei@gs.com 品部国际 Alexandre Stott +33(1)4212-1108 alexandre.stott@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris Branch James Moberly +44(20)7774-9444 GDP的比例下降了近2个百分点 -- 从GDP的约4%降至2% -- 这一趋势自2022年 以来才部分扭转。数十年来低水平的军费开支对基础设施和装备投资的冲击尤为 严重。虽然欧洲在坦克、火炮、舰艇和飞机方面的装备相当充足（尽管储备已大 幅下降而且目前集中在非核心国家），但该地区在空中防御、关键卫星、无人机 以及核能力方面落后。我们估计，目前与俄罗斯的军事储备差距约为4,000亿欧 元，尽管关于这一估算数据点的不确定性很大。 james ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on S&P 500 dividends, forecasting a growth of 6% year/year for 2025, with a payout ratio of 30% and dividends of $80 per share [11][12]. Core Insights - Despite a 6% selloff in the S&P 500 from its February high, dividend futures pricing has remained stable at 1%, indicating resilience amid market volatility [1][7]. - The main upside risk to the dividend forecast is the potential for excess capital return from the Financials sector due to regulatory reforms, which analysts have not yet fully incorporated into their estimates [3][22]. - The economists have revised the Q4/Q4 US GDP growth forecast down to 1.7%, which presents modest risks to the dividend growth forecast but more significant risks to EPS growth [3][30]. - Dividend futures are seen as an attractive investment opportunity for those who can withstand illiquidity and volatility, with forecasts indicating a 2% upside for 2025 futures and 7% for 2026 futures [35][36]. Summary by Sections Dividend Growth Forecast - The forecast for S&P 500 dividend growth in 2025 is set at 6%, down from a previous estimate of 7%, with earnings growth being the primary driver [11][12]. - The consensus expects the fastest dividend growth in Financials and Communication Services, while Energy and Real Estate are expected to grow the slowest [14][17]. Economic Indicators - The combination of policy uncertainty and weak economic data has contributed to the recent selloff in the S&P 500, with tariffs impacting investor sentiment [4][6]. - The ISM Manufacturing Index has declined to 50.3, while the ISM Services Index has increased to 53.5, indicating mixed economic signals [6][30]. Sector Analysis - In the first two months of 2025, 112 S&P 500 companies increased their dividends by a median of 7%, with 17% of these companies from the Financials sector [14][46]. - Analysts have noted that certain management teams may review their dividend payout ratios, which are currently just above 30% [21][22]. Potential Catalysts - Upcoming CCAR results in June are anticipated to be catalysts for the dividend market, as previous tests have led to dividend increases by participating banks [24][30]. - If large tech stocks initiate or increase their dividends, it could present another upside risk to the overall dividend growth forecast [28][29].

6 March 2025 | 12:50AM EST Global Economics Comment: Why Al Spending Is Not Boosting GDP (Briggs/Dong) ian hatzilis (1) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC osenh briaas@as com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC (212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.co Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Megan Peters 44(20) 7051-2058 megan | neters@gs.com Goldman Sachs International nvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or ...

China: Two Sessions Comment 1: 2025 economic targets in line, while government bond issuance quota missed Bottom line: 5 March 2025 | 1:22PM HKT 2. On fiscal numbers, the 2025 official on-budget fiscal deficit target is in line with Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Go ...

6 March 2025 | 10:18PM HKT China: Two Sessions Comment 3: Top policymakers reiterated supportive stance and provided some more implementation details Bottom line: This afternoon (6 March), the heads of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Finance (MOF), Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), PBOC and China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a joint press conference on 2025 economic policies. Top policymakers reiterated their supportive stance and provided some more implementa ...

Main points: China: Two Sessions Comment 2: Fiscal expansion to do (most of) the heavy lifting for stabilizing growth Bottom line: The 2025 fiscal targets unveiled during the "Two Sessions" imply the total amount of government bond net issuance quota will increase to RMB11.9tn in 2025 from RMB9.0tn in 2024. According to the 2025 budget report proposal, the MOF expects fiscal revenue growth to slow, but fiscal expenditure growth to increase, both by a moderate degree. We see downside risk to the MOF projecti ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but highlights significant revenue growth in AI infrastructure-related companies, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2][3]. Core Insights - There is a notable divergence between the annualized revenue growth of public companies involved in AI infrastructure, which increased by over $340 billion from 2022 to Q4 2024, and the real investment in AI-related categories in the US GDP, which only rose by $42 billion during the same period [2][3]. - The report suggests that a substantial portion of the revenue increase is attributed to cost inflation and foreign revenue, which do not contribute to real GDP growth [6][9]. - Methodological issues in the US national accounts may lead to an underestimation of the impact of AI-related investments on real GDP, with an estimated potential understatement of around $100 billion [2][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Annualized revenue for public companies exposed to AI infrastructure build-out increased by over $340 billion from 2022 through Q4 2024, with projections suggesting a further increase to $580 billion by the end of 2025 [2][3]. - The increase in real investment in AI-related categories in the US GDP accounts was only $42 billion during the same period, raising questions about the apparent disconnect between revenue and GDP growth [3][4]. Cost Inflation and Foreign Revenue - A significant portion of the revenue increase is driven by cost inflation, particularly in semiconductors, and foreign sales, which account for nearly half of the reported AI spending surge [6][9]. - Margin expansion is estimated to explain around $30 billion of the overall revenue increase, with foreign revenue contributing approximately $130 billion [9][17]. Methodological Considerations - The report discusses the commodity-flow approach used in US national accounts, which may misclassify semiconductor purchases as intermediate inputs rather than investments, leading to an underrepresentation of actual investment in GDP [11][12]. - The surge in cloud services used for AI model training is also likely underreported in GDP calculations due to their classification as intermediate inputs [14][15]. - The report concludes that while there is potential for AI-related investment to provide a moderate boost to real US GDP in 2025, much of the investment in semiconductors and cloud computing will likely remain unmeasured unless there are changes in national accounting methodologies [22].