Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on China's trade growth, with exports and imports both showing unexpected increases in June [1][9][10]. Core Insights - China's trade growth accelerated in June, with exports rising by 5.8% year-over-year (yoy) and imports increasing by 1.1% yoy, surpassing consensus expectations [1][2][9]. - The rebound in US-bound exports is a significant factor, attributed to tariff reductions following US-China trade talks [1][9]. - The trade surplus reached a record high of US$114.8 billion in June, up from US$103.2 billion in May [1][3][9]. Summary by Sections Trade Growth - Year-over-year, exports increased by 5.8% in June compared to 4.8% in May, while imports rose by 1.1% compared to a decline of 3.4% in May [2][9]. - Sequentially, exports grew by 0.8% non-annualized in June, recovering from a decline of 0.7% in May, and imports increased by 0.9% non-annualized, up from a 6.0% decline in May [2][9]. Regional Analysis - Exports to the US rebounded significantly, while exports to the EU and some emerging markets declined [10]. - Chinese imports from the US saw the largest increase in June, while imports from Latin America and ASEAN fell [10]. Product Categories - Export values for automobiles and housing-related products rose, with automobile exports jumping by 23.1% yoy in June [11]. - Import values for energy goods and metal ores increased, although imports of semiconductors, automobiles, and agricultural products declined notably [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shennan Circuits with a 12-month target price of Rmb132, up from Rmb116.92, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance [1][15][21]. Core Insights - Shennan Circuits is expected to see a revenue growth of 19% YoY to Rmb5.2 billion in 2Q25, with net profit remaining relatively flat at -1% YoY due to a high base effect. The gross margin is projected to be 25.3%, slightly increasing QoQ due to product mix improvements [1][3]. - The growth in AI PCB is anticipated to be a significant driver for the company's revenue, with contributions expected to reach 18% and 20% of total revenue in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [12][15]. - The report highlights the optimization of BT substrate pricing, which is expected to positively impact earnings in 3Q25, driven by rising demand and higher raw material costs [7][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2Q25E, revenue is estimated at Rmb5,194 million, representing a 19% YoY increase and a 9% QoQ increase. The net income is projected at Rmb600 million, reflecting a -1% YoY change [3][14]. - The gross margin is expected to be 25.3%, with operating profit at Rmb635 million, indicating an 18% QoQ increase [3][14]. AI PCB Outlook - The demand for AI PCB is confirmed to remain strong, supported by increasing orders from domestic AI customers and steady overseas demand. Shennan's PCB utilization is reported to be close to 90% [2][12]. - AI PCB is projected to be the primary driver of incremental profits for Shennan in 2025E, with significant contributions to gross profit expected [18][15]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Shennan Circuits is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic AI infrastructure cycle in China, capturing demand overflow from PCB peers that primarily serve US customers [6][15]. - The company has been expanding its capacity both domestically and internationally to leverage opportunities in the overseas market [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Laopu Gold (6181.HK) with a target price of HK$1,090, based on a 25x target P/E for 2027E [9][27]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold is expected to report significant growth in sales and net profit for 1H25, with forecasts of 268% and 284% year-over-year growth, respectively, reaching RMB12,963 million in sales and RMB2,259 million in net profit [1][17]. - The company is focusing on several key strategies for 2H25, including gross profit margin (GPM) management, store optimization, high ticket size SKU launches, and overseas expansion, particularly in Singapore [2][8]. - The GPM is projected to contract by 2.1 percentage points year-over-year to 39.3% due to raw material cost pressures, despite a price hike of less than 10% implemented earlier [8][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Laopu Gold's revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB8,505.6 million in 2024 to RMB27,121.8 million in 2025, with EBITDA expected to increase from RMB2,123.6 million to RMB6,603.5 million over the same period [4][28]. - The adjusted net profit for 1H25 is expected to be RMB2,409 million, reflecting a 294% increase year-over-year when excluding ESOP expenses [1][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is experiencing strong sales per store, with an average of RMB300 million, and a same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 150% [8]. - Laopu Gold plans to expand its store network, with new openings in key locations such as Shanghai and Singapore, which are anticipated to support additional SSSG [2][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report outlines various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 14.1 for 2024, increasing to 29.6 for 2025, and a projected dividend yield of 5.2% for 2024 [4][9]. - The company’s financial returns are highlighted by a CROCI of 50.1% for 2024, indicating strong profitability relative to capital employed [4][9]. Growth Projections - The report anticipates continued growth in net income, projecting RMB4,733 million for 2025 and RMB6,623 million for 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 221% and 40%, respectively [29]. - The expected margins for 1H25 include a gross profit margin of 39.3%, operating profit margin of 23.6%, and net profit margin of 17.4% [17][24].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese government has prioritized fiscal expansion and local government debt resolution to counteract growth headwinds and manage financial risks [3][4] - China's Augmented Government Debt (AGD) is projected to reach RMB179 trillion in 2024, equivalent to 133% of GDP, with a stable annualized growth rate of around 9% from 2022 to 2024 [5][6] - The average financing costs of AGD are expected to decline from 3.7% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, with interest payments stabilizing at RMB6.1 trillion in 2025, which is 4.4% of GDP [21][22] - The AGD-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase steadily, potentially reaching around 170% by 2035, barring any financial crises or aggressive policy-led deleveraging [28][31] Summary by Sections Augmented Government Debt (AGD) Overview - China's AGD has risen significantly, from RMB112 trillion (111% of GDP) in 2019 to RMB179 trillion (133% of GDP) in 2024, marking a 60% increase [5][6] - The growth of AGD has been stable, with official government debt expansion outpacing implicit debt since 2015 [6][10] Financing Costs and Interest Payments - The average financing costs of AGD are projected to decrease, with interest payments expected to stabilize at RMB6.1 trillion in 2025 [21][22] - The ongoing local government debt resolution has helped lower implicit debt servicing costs, particularly in less developed regions [15][21] Future Projections - The report anticipates that the AGD-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise, with nominal GDP growth expected to gradually normalize [27][28] - The report suggests that the current combination of policy efforts should remain in place, while long-term fiscal and tax reforms are necessary for sustainable debt management [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - PPI deflation in China has deepened, with PPI inflation dropping to -3.6% year-on-year in June, marking the 33rd consecutive month of deflation [1][2] - The Chinese government is expected to implement incremental demand-side easing measures in the property market rather than large-scale stimulus, as long-term fundamentals do not support significant new apartment construction [4] - Upcoming macroeconomic data releases are anticipated to show solid performance, with Q2 real GDP growth forecasted at 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus of 5.1% [8] Summary by Sections PPI and CPI Trends - PPI inflation decreased from -3.3% in May to -3.6% in June, while CPI inflation increased slightly from -0.1% to +0.1% year-on-year [1][2] Property Market Outlook - Recent property data indicates a decline in house prices and home sales, leading to speculation about government stimulus; however, the report suggests that any measures will be modest and focused on renovation rather than new construction [4] Economic Data Expectations - Key macroeconomic indicators, including trade, credit, and GDP data, are expected to be released soon, with forecasts for trade and industrial production above consensus, while credit and retail sales forecasts are below consensus [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Bilibili Inc. (BILI) with a 12-month price target of $23.60, indicating a potential upside of 10.0% from the current price of $21.46 [1][17]. Core Insights - The management of Bilibili expressed confidence in delivering above-industry advertising growth in the coming years, supported by advancements in advertising technology and enhanced industry solutions [9][18]. - The gaming segment is expected to improve visibility with a new pipeline of games, including titles aimed at younger audiences and a long-term operational strategy for each game [9][22]. - The overall financial outlook shows significant revenue growth projections, with total revenue expected to increase from RMB 26,831.5 million in 2024 to RMB 36,608.4 million by 2027 [4][15]. Advertising Trends - Management highlighted a strong advertising growth trend, with key industries showing robust performance in 1H25, including a notable 82% year-over-year increase in related ad revenue [9][18]. - Specific advertising formats, such as splash screen ads and search performance ads, saw increases of 16% and 76% year-over-year, respectively, in 1H25 [18]. - The content-consumption industry experienced a 90% year-over-year increase in ad revenue, driven by significant growth in internet services and education sectors [18][19]. Gaming Strategy - Bilibili's gaming strategy focuses on developing games that resonate with young people's values and ensuring a long lifecycle of over five years for each title [9][22]. - Upcoming game releases include "Trickcal RE:VIVE" and "Escape from Duckov," with global launches planned for 2H25 [22][23]. - The company is shifting its monetization strategy towards cosmetic items, which has shown promising results in user engagement and revenue generation [23]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% from 2024 to 2025, with EBITDA expected to increase significantly from RMB 2,356.4 million in 2024 to RMB 4,531.7 million in 2025 [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to turn positive by 2025, reaching RMB 5.63, with further growth anticipated in subsequent years [4][15]. - The report indicates a strong free cash flow yield, expected to rise from 2.3% in 2024 to 8.3% by 2027 [4][11]. Market Position - Bilibili's market capitalization is currently at $9.0 billion, with an enterprise value of $6.7 billion, positioning it favorably within the China Games, Entertainment, and Healthcare Tech sectors [4][11]. - The company has a strong advertising wallet share gain in the gaming sector, indicating a competitive edge against major players like Tencent and NetEase [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for FedEx Corp., United Parcel Service Inc., and Eagle Materials Inc., while C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. is rated as "Neutral" [90]. Core Insights - The report highlights a sequential drop of 6% in laden vessels from China to the US, marking the second consecutive week of decline after a surge [1][5]. - Container rates are under significant pressure, with a recent sequential drop of 24% and a year-over-year decline of 71% [5][36]. - The report outlines two potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts and inventory management [6][7]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Flows - High-frequency data is utilized to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, with a focus on freight flows from China to the US [2][3]. - The report notes that laden container vessels from China to the US experienced a year-over-year decline of 1% and a sequential drop of 6% [21][13]. Trade Scenarios and Economic Outlook - The report discusses two broad scenarios for 2025: a potential pull-forward surge ahead of a 90-day tariff pause or a slowdown in activity due to uncertainty [6][7]. - The likelihood of a recession has decreased, with Goldman Sachs economists lowering their recession forecast to 30% and increasing GDP outlook for Q4 to 1.3% [11]. Container and TEU Trends - TEUs from China to the US saw a year-over-year decline of 2% and a sequential decrease of 5% [21][25]. - The report indicates that intermodal traffic on the West Coast rose by 5% year-over-year, suggesting a recovery in logistics following previous negative trends [47]. Shipping Rates and Market Dynamics - Ocean container rates from China to the US West Coast have seen a significant decline, reflecting the volatility in shipping demand [36][39]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles are expected to fluctuate, with a recent decrease of 11% sequentially, followed by anticipated increases [41][39]. Inventory and Supply Chain Insights - The Logistics Managers Index indicates upstream inventory expansion while downstream inventories have compressed, reflecting differing trends in B2B and B2C sectors [70][72]. - The report estimates significant fluctuations in trade values, with potential increases in imports observed in June compared to previous months [67][68].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Sumitomo Electric Industries (SEI) to Buy from Neutral and Furukawa Electric to Neutral from Sell [1] Core Insights - The industrial electronics sector is experiencing increased demand for optical products driven by generative AI and data centers, leading to significant capacity expansion investments [2] - The report highlights the shift towards medium-distance data center interconnections (DCI) due to land and power constraints, creating additional demand for optical fiber products [17] - SEI is expected to see a substantial increase in profit contribution from its infocommunications business, which is projected to grow from 6% of total profits in FY3/25 to approximately 20% by FY3/28 [41][43] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - Demand for optical products is significantly exceeding supply, prompting companies to invest in capacity expansion [2] - The emergence of projects like Stargate and increasing domestic data center demand from a national security perspective are expected to sustain high levels of investment in data center construction [2] Company Performance - SEI's operating profit estimates for FY3/26 to FY3/28 have been raised by 11%/11%/12% due to increased demand for optical products [51] - Furukawa Electric is also expected to benefit from marginal profit growth due to rising demand [1] Financial Estimates - The report provides updated sales and operating profit estimates for key companies in the sector, indicating a general upward trend in financial performance [11] - For SEI, the new target price is set at ¥4,300, reflecting a significant increase from the previous target of ¥2,800 [54][55] Technological Developments - The report discusses advancements in optical device technology, particularly the shift towards higher communication speeds and the potential for co-packaged optics (CPO) to become a key area of growth [22][23] - SEI has been selected as a technology partner by NVIDIA, indicating its strong position in the optical devices market [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AMEC, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the semiconductor industry [1][7][10]. Core Insights - AMEC is experiencing solid order growth driven by clients' capacity expansion and increasing adoption of domestic equipment in China. The company is actively expanding its product offerings, which include deposition, etch, and metrology & inspection tools [1][6]. - Management projects a revenue growth of over 30% year-on-year, supported by strong bookings from both memory and logic customers. The local supply ratio for advanced technologies is expected to grow significantly [6][7]. - The company is accelerating its R&D cycle for new products, reducing the development time from 2-3 years to 1.5-2 years, which is attributed to improved design processes and increased client collaboration [6][7]. Revenue and Orders Outlook - AMEC's management is optimistic about achieving over 30% year-on-year revenue growth, with a strong operational performance in the first half of the year and a solid outlook for the second half [6]. - The company anticipates continued growth from the increasing adoption of local equipment by Chinese customers, with significant room for growth in the local supply ratio, especially in advanced technologies [6]. Product Expansion - AMEC plans to enhance its product coverage in deposition tools to approximately 80% by 2026, up from around 30% currently. The company has begun generating revenues from its WU series deposition products in 2024 [6][7]. - The company is also developing next-generation etching tools and expanding into metrology and inspection tools, including the launch of a Critical Dimension Scanning Electron Microscope (CDSEM) [6][7]. R&D Process Acceleration - The new product development cycle has been shortened to 1.5-2 years, compared to the previous 2-3 years. This improvement is due to platform product design, increased client trust, and the integration of AI technology in simulations [6][7]. Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month target price for AMEC is set at Rmb275, based on a P/E ratio of 29x for 2029 estimates, reflecting an attractive valuation as the company trades below its historical average [8][10]. - The report indicates a potential upside of 52.3% from the current price of Rmb180.58 [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for AMEC are as follows: Rmb9,065.2 million for 2024, Rmb12,590.1 million for 2025, Rmb16,330.5 million for 2026, and Rmb20,477.2 million for 2027 [10]. - EBITDA is projected to grow from Rmb1,560.9 million in 2024 to Rmb6,244.6 million by 2027 [10]. Conclusion - AMEC is positioned to benefit from the ongoing expansion of the semiconductor industry in China, with a strong focus on product development and local market penetration, making it a compelling investment opportunity [1][7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Mindray, highlighting its strong market position and growth potential in the healthcare sector [92]. Core Insights - The procurement value of main medical devices in China showed a year-on-year growth rate of 49% in June 2025, although it fell short of previous expectations due to a 3% month-on-month decline driven by lower unit prices from Value-Based Procurement (VBP) policies [1]. - The report anticipates a decline in the trade-in stimulus effect for the second half of 2025, as applications for trade-in funding have decreased in recent months [1]. - The ultrasound segment has experienced significant price declines due to VBP, with CT scanners also seeing sharp price reductions [9][13]. - The market share of non-GPSU brands in CT scanners has increased during the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in brand dynamics within the industry [24]. Summary by Sections Procurement Trends - The total bidding value for nine main medical devices in China has shown fluctuations, with significant year-on-year growth in various segments, including a 62% increase for CT scanners in June 2025 compared to May 2025 [51]. - The report notes that 30% of ultrasound procurement volume is expected to be impacted by VBP by the end of 2025, with an average price cut of 50%-60% [22]. Company-Specific Insights - Mindray is positioned as a leading medtech device manufacturer in China, with 55% of its revenue coming from the domestic market. The company is expected to benefit from strong healthcare infrastructure development and increasing overseas revenue [92]. - United Imaging has expanded its presence globally and is witnessing a rebound in medical equipment procurement in China, supported by government initiatives [93]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that both domestic and multinational companies achieved notable year-on-year growth in June, indicating a competitive landscape in the medical device sector [74]. - The ongoing VBP policies are a key concern, affecting pricing and procurement strategies across various medical device categories [9].