Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for US equities, with a lowered year-end 2025 S&P 500 index target from 6500 to 6200, reflecting a downgrade in US growth forecasts [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift from US exceptionalism to a more favorable outlook for European and emerging market equities, driven by a significant valuation gap and expected growth from increased European defense spending [2][4]. - The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 1.7% from 2.4%, influenced by an anticipated rise in the average US tariff rate by 10 percentage points [1][5]. - European equities are expected to outperform, with revised EPS growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 increased to 4%, 6%, and 6% respectively [2][4]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The average US tariff rate is projected to rise by 10 percentage points this year, significantly impacting GDP growth forecasts [1][5]. - The S&P 500 has entered correction territory, reflecting market adjustments to lower growth expectations [1][2]. European Economic Outlook - European equities are anticipated to continue their strong performance due to a large valuation gap compared to US equities and increased defense spending [2][4]. - The report notes positive developments in fiscal policy from the EU Council and Germany, supporting the outlook for European markets [2][4]. Emerging Markets - The report suggests that both China and broader emerging market equities have shown relative strength this year, with potential for further gains [2][4].

Investment Ratings - Vanchip: Neutral [3][7] - NSIG: Sell [10][15] - Sanan: Sell [20][24] Core Insights - Vanchip is expanding its product lines and market share in the Chinese smartphone sector, despite a significant decline in net income and revenue in 4Q24 [2][3] - NSIG is facing pricing pressure due to modest end demand and high depreciation costs from previous capacity expansions, leading to a net loss in 4Q24 [10][13] - Sanan is transitioning to SiC production and expanding its compound semiconductors business, but growth may take time to offset declines in its legacy LED business [20][21] Vanchip Summary - 4Q24 net income was Rmb3 million, down 95% YoY, with revenue at Rmb611 million, a 55% YoY decline but a 45% QoQ increase [3][4] - The company announced a Rmb350 million capital increase to support R&D for high-performance RF modules [3][4] - Earnings estimates for 2024 have been revised down, with a target price maintained at Rmb49.1 based on a 29x 2025E target PE [7][9] NSIG Summary - 4Q24 net loss was Rmb434 million, with revenues of Rmb909 million, reflecting a 14% YoY increase but a 9% miss against expectations [10][11] - The earnings decline is attributed to a slower-than-expected recovery in the wafer industry and high fixed costs from capacity expansion [10][13] - Net income estimates for 2025-27E have been revised down by 5% to 10% due to lower revenues and higher depreciation [15][19] Sanan Summary - Sanan has started 8-inch SiC production with a weekly capacity of 500 units, but growth in this area is expected to take time [20][21] - The company is focusing on expanding its compound semiconductors business and transitioning to Mini/Micro LED technologies [20][21] - Net income estimates for 2024 have been revised up by 14% to Rmb543 million, while 2025-26E net incomes have been adjusted down by 2% due to increased R&D expenses [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CATL (300750.SZ) with a target price of Rmb367.00, indicating an upside potential of 40.1% from the current price of Rmb262.00 [1][16]. Core Insights - CATL's 2024 earnings were in line with expectations, reporting a revenue of Rmb362.0 billion, down 10% year-on-year, and a net profit of Rmb50.7 billion, up 15% year-on-year [1]. - The weakness in unit gross profit (GP) in 4Q24 is attributed to product mix volatility, with expectations for recovery in subsequent quarters as the product mix improves [2][20]. - The company announced a cash dividend of Rmb25.4 billion for 2024, implying a payout ratio of approximately 50%, which is expected to be sustainable, providing dividend yields of around 3% to 6% from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - CATL's implied 4Q24 revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 14% year-on-year [1]. - The company revised down its net profit forecasts by 4% to 5% for 2025-2027, primarily due to US tariffs and increased R&D expenses, but still remains 19% to 42% above consensus estimates [5][17]. Market Position and Outlook - CATL has underperformed its peers year-to-date, but potential stock drivers include strong monthly battery shipments, unit GP expansion, and stronger-than-expected demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the EU [4]. - The report highlights that CATL's unit GP is expected to recover in 2025, supported by a sustainable product mix improvement and cost savings from higher utilization rates [20]. Key Data and Valuation - The market capitalization of CATL is Rmb1.1 trillion (approximately $158.8 billion), with an enterprise value of Rmb888.9 billion (approximately $123.0 billion) [6]. - The report provides forecasts for revenue growth, estimating a total revenue of Rmb477.9 billion in 2025, with a projected EBITDA of Rmb107.9 billion [6][15]. - The expected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 15x, 10.9x, and 8.7x, compared to a historical average of 33x, indicating that CATL is currently trading at cyclical lows [17].

Investment Ratings - Arista Networks Inc (ANET): Buy with a 12-month target price of $145 [16] - Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO): Neutral with a 12-month target price of $63 [17] - Dell Technologies (DELL): Buy with a 12-month target price of $145 [18] - F5 Inc (FFIV): Neutral with a 12-month target price of $295 [19] - Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI): Neutral with a 12-month target price of $40 [20] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE): Not Rated [21] - Juniper Networks (JNPR): Not Rated [22] Core Insights - The AI data center infrastructure market is expected to grow robustly through 2028, with AI servers projected to reach $335 billion by 2028, reflecting a 31% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2028 [4][7] - AI data center switching is anticipated to grow at a 41% CAGR, reaching $22 billion by 2028, with significant growth in back end Ethernet and front end Ethernet segments [3][10] - Traditional server estimates remain largely unchanged, with a slight upward revision of 4% on average for 2025/26 and a downward revision of 4% for 2027/28 [13] AI Data Center Market Outlook - AI server market growth is expected to be driven by hyperscaler customers at an 18% CAGR, Tier 2 Cloud at 58% CAGR, and enterprise at 48% CAGR [4][7] - The AI switching market is projected to grow at a 33% CAGR for hyperscalers, 45% CAGR for Tier 2 Cloud, and 58% CAGR for enterprise [3][7] - The overall AI data center market is expected to reach $334.5 billion by 2028, with traditional data center infrastructure showing more muted growth [7] Company-Specific Insights - Arista Networks (ANET) is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in data and digital transformation, with 43% of its 2023 revenue from cloud spending [23] - Cisco Systems (CSCO) remains a market leader but has faced market share losses due to competition from lower-cost providers [24] - Dell Technologies (DELL) is expected to benefit from AI server demand and a resurgence in PC trends, positioning itself as a key IT partner [27] - F5 Inc (FFIV) is diversifying its offerings to include security and observability features, which may offset mixed demand for its legacy products [29] - Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) is positioned as a leading AI infrastructure company, benefiting from partnerships with major suppliers [30]

Investment Rating - The report provides a rating distribution with 48% classified as Buy, 34% as Hold, and 18% as Sell globally [24]. Core Insights - The report highlights the performance metrics of specific companies, including Baosteel, Angang-H, and Maanshan-H, with Baosteel showing a unit gross profit of 499 RMB/t and an implied PE of 75 [11]. - Angang-H has a negative EPS of (2.035) million RMB, indicating financial challenges, while Maanshan-H shows a positive EPS of 1.550 million RMB with an implied PE of 8.8 [11]. - The report notes significant changes in EPS and valuation for these companies, with Baosteel experiencing a 100 RMB/t increase in unit gross profit and a 23% change in share price [11]. Company Summaries - Baosteel: Unit GP of 499 RMB/t, EPS of 0.997 RMB/share, and an implied PE of 75. The company saw a 100 RMB/t increase in unit gross profit and a 23% change in share price [11]. - Angang-H: Unit GP of 46 RMB/t, negative EPS of (0.216) RMB/share, and not applicable implied PE. The company experienced a 100 RMB/t increase in unit gross profit with a 78% change in share price [11]. - Maanshan-H: Unit GP of 222 RMB/t, EPS of 0.201 RMB/share, and an implied PE of 8.8. The company also saw a 100 RMB/t increase in unit gross profit with a 63% change in share price [11].

2025年3月13日 | 8:47PM GMT 欧洲经济日评: 法国 - 分析国防支出增加对于经济和财政的 影响 Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 |ari.stehn@gs.com 高盛国际 Filippo Taddei +44(20)7774-5458 filippo.taddei@gs.com 高盛国际 Alexandre Stott +33(1)4212-1108 alexandre.stott@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE Paris Branch James Moberly +44(20)7774-9444 james.r.moberly@gs.com 高盛国际 Niklas Garnadt +44(20)7051-7722 niklas.garnadt@gs.com 高盛国际 现在预计法国的借贷利率约为4%，这意味着未来几年法国的利率-增速差将明显恶 化。因此，稳定债务与GDP之比所需的基本财政收支将从GDP的0%增加到1%左 右,而这是法国在战后时期很少能够达到的水平。有鉴于此，我们预计到2030年 代初,政府债务与GD ...

Researco 2025年3月9日 | 7:38PM HKT 资料来源: MSCI,FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部 中国市场寻思 审视中国牛市的韧性 1. 中国股市迎来史上最强"开门红", MSCI中国指数年初至今已上涨19%，分别跑赢 发达/新兴市场指数18个/14个百分点。从谷底到峰值高达29%的涨幅在历史上排名第 三，仅次于全球金融危机和疫情重新放开之后的市场反弹幅度。多个因素助力市场上 涨,特别是市场对Al的乐观情绪和中国科技题材叙事向好、当前两会夯实稳增长的政 策基调，以及截至目前美国新政府治下的中美关系看起来好于投资者此前担忧的情 景。但随着指数估值越来越接近我们的合理市盈率目标（12倍），以及一些积极的国 内推动因素已经落实,我们预计随着未来几周中美政策和地缘政治日程再次变得活 跃,牛市进程将会放缓、获利回吐压力显现。我们维持对中国港股和A股的高配建议, 重申我们近日更新的12个月目标点位,即MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数的目标点位分 别为85点(+10%)和4,700点(+19%)，我们强调选择中后周期AI受益股、股东回报的代 表性投资标的以及部分民企作为投资组合核心持股，并在表现滞后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the near-term Chinese government bonds (CGB) but holds a constructive medium-term view [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a paradox in monetary policy, where measured easing occurs amid significant uncertainty, particularly regarding US-China trade relations and domestic economic conditions [4][5]. - The Chinese yuan (CNY) has shown resilience despite increased US tariffs, with the USD/CNY exchange rate stabilizing around 7.24, influenced by a weaker USD and improved sentiment in China's asset markets [4][5]. - The report anticipates that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will prioritize FX stability over aggressive monetary easing, with expectations of two 20 basis point rate cuts in Q2 and Q4, and two 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in Q1 and Q3 [6]. Valuations and Policy Stance - The CNY depreciated against the CFETS basket in February but remained range-bound against the USD, indicating a cautious approach by policymakers [9]. - The PBoC's recent actions suggest a shift towards using the CNY fixing as a policy signal rather than a market instrument, maintaining stability despite external pressures [5][6]. Technicals - The report notes that interbank repo rates have remained above the policy rate, raising concerns about effective monetary tightening despite the PBoC's easing rhetoric [6]. - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH and EUR/CNH rose in February, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards these currencies [17]. Fundamentals - China's trade balance showed a slight decline in January due to a wider trade deficit in travel services, with travel exports at 123% and imports at 114% of 2019 levels [30][32]. - The consensus forecast for China's CPI inflation remains subdued, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [51]. Liquidity and Leverage - The report indicates that liquidity in the interbank market remains tight, with the PBoC withdrawing liquidity amid rising demand from government bond issuance [6][62]. - Financial leveraging in the bond market is relatively low due to elevated interbank repo rates, suggesting cautious investor behavior [64]. Bond Supply and Demand - Net issuance of central government bonds was approximately RMB 419 billion in February 2025, reflecting increased government borrowing to support economic stability [70]. - Local government special bonds issuance was around RMB 392 billion in February 2025, indicating ongoing fiscal support measures [73].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for high-tech manufacturing in China, suggesting it could become a key growth engine for the economy [4][5]. Core Insights - Recent advancements in China's high-tech sectors, particularly with the emergence of AI models like DeepSeek, have led to optimism regarding medium-term growth [4][5]. - High-tech manufacturing has significantly outperformed other manufacturing sectors, driven by strong domestic policy support and increased external demand [4][19]. - The sector has contributed an average of 1.1 percentage points (pp) to annual real GDP growth over the past decade, with expectations of continued contributions of around 1.0 pp from 2025 to 2029 [33][45]. Summary by Sections High-tech Manufacturing Performance - High-tech manufacturing has been a significant growth driver, contributing an average of 1.1 pp to annual GDP growth over the last decade, with a peak contribution of over 2 pp in 2021 [33][36]. - The sector's share in total manufacturing value added has increased from 30% in 2005 to 40% in 2024, and it now accounts for approximately 8% of GDP [12][33]. Factors Driving Growth - The outperformance of high-tech manufacturing is attributed to two main factors: increased domestic policy support and a rise in external demand, with real exports growing at an annualized rate of 8% from 2019 to 2024 [19][23]. - Key high-tech sectors, such as industrial robots and semiconductors, have seen substantial production growth, reflecting the government's push for self-sufficiency and technological advancement [15][19]. Future Outlook - The baseline scenario anticipates that high-tech manufacturing will continue to outperform the broader manufacturing sector, with expected annual growth rates of 4.8% in real terms from 2024 to 2029 [39][41]. - Scenario analysis suggests that high-tech manufacturing's contribution to GDP growth could range from 0.6 pp to 1.4 pp, depending on various macroeconomic factors and trade tensions [44][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on China and Japan, a Market Weight (MW) rating on India, Korea, and Taiwan, and a downgrade to Market Weight for Indonesia while upgrading Singapore to Overweight [4][27][57]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of tariffs and AI developments on investment strategies, particularly focusing on China and Japan as favorable markets [4][19][27]. - There is a noted shift in AI investment focus from infrastructure to application layers, benefiting China, while Japan's investment case remains strong despite recent market performance [19][27][37]. Summary by Sections Investor Feedback - Recent investor discussions have centered around tariffs, AI, macro policy, and geopolitical risks, with a strong interest in China equities despite some investors holding negative views [4][5]. Tariffs - The report outlines concerns regarding tariffs, particularly the potential for reciprocal tariffs impacting Asian economies, with a key risk period identified in early April [6][12]. - A 10% universal tariff could lead to a 3% hit to regional earnings and a 4% decline in valuations, with Taiwan and Korea being the most affected [10][13]. AI - The report notes a shift in AI focus towards application layers, particularly benefiting China, with significant revenue exposure in Taiwan (74%), China offshore (55%), and Korea (44%) [19][20]. - The proliferation of low-cost, high-performance AI models is seen as supportive for market views, with a preference for sectors like internet, media, and entertainment [21][28]. China - The investment case for China is bolstered by positive AI developments and policy support, with a target for the MSCI China Index raised from 75 to 85, reflecting a 9% earnings growth forecast [27][28]. - Key themes for investment include AI applications, government spending beneficiaries, and shareholder returns [29]. Japan - Japan's investment outlook remains favorable with strong earnings growth expectations and a current forward P/E valuation of 13.4x, despite recent market underperformance [37][38]. India - The report indicates a stabilization in India's economic growth, but risks remain from small/mid-cap (SMID) exposure and potential tariff impacts, leading to a market weight rating [42][43]. Korea and Taiwan - Both markets are rated at market weight, with a focus on alpha opportunities in sectors like defense and technology, particularly in relation to Apple suppliers in Taiwan [50][51]. ASEAN - The report suggests a reset in preferences for ASEAN markets, upgrading Singapore to overweight due to its stability and growth potential while downgrading Indonesia due to economic concerns [57][59]. Key Alpha Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying alpha themes within a moderately constructive beta backdrop, focusing on sectors like defense, AI applications, and quality stocks with strong balance sheets [66][71].