19 March 2025 | 6:15PM HKT Tencent Holdings (0700.HK): 4Q24 First Take: Solid beat with marked step-up in AI capex; eyes on AI applications; Buy 1) AI applications progress/AI capex spending: With adoption of DeepSeek R1 into WeChat AI search (where Tencent saw rapid increase in Weixin search daily enquiries) and a marked increase of capex in 4Q24, investor focuses are on Tencent's progress in AI applications (including potential WeChat AI agent), the estimate investment pace and the level of capex for 2025 ...

Research 2025年3月17日 | 11:45PM HKT 中国:决策层更关注提振消费,但政策细节仍不明朗 概要: 3月16日,国务院印发《提振消费专项行动方案》。随后,国家发改委会同多 个部门在3月17日举行新闻发布会并答记者问。行动方案概要指出了中国政府提振消 费的总体思路,包括提高居民收入和财富、提升社会保障支持、加大消费品以旧换新 支持力度、提高消费产品质量、促进服务消费以及取消各类限购措施。然而，除两会 上已经公布的内容外，行动方案和新闻发布会都并未给出具体的政策措施。 要点: 1. 去年12月的中央经济工作会议和3月份李强总理在两会上所作的政府工作报告都将 "提振消费"作为今年政策的重中之重。在3月6日的新闻发布会上,发改委主任 郑栅洁表示一项全面的消费行动方案很快将公布实施。3月16日，国务院印发《提 振消费专项行动方案》。随后,发改委会同多个部门在3月17日举行新闻发布会并 迪安竹 +852-2978-1802 andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 闪辉 +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.c 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 于立升 +85 ...

2025年3月17日 | 10:22AM EDT 全球经济评论: 贸易政策不确定性对劳动力市场的影响 (摘 韓 Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 lan. 高架集团 losebu Rriggs +1(212)902-2163 高架集团 Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 高架集团 Megan Peters +44(20)7051-2058 megan.l.peters@gs.c 高盛国际 之后，对贸易敏感的加拿大一些省份和美国一些州的招聘速度放缓幅度更大（但 在英国没有差异化影响）。我们的区域估算同样表明，倘若不确定性回升至 2018-2019年水平，则将对就业人口同比增速造成0-0.3个百分点的拖累。 ■ 鉴于TPU指标已升至2018-2019年水平之上，我们的估算表明，2025年贸易政策 不确定性对就业增长造成了一定的拖累,这与我们各国研究团队的经济预测一 致。近期数据普遍支持这一模式,随着2月份不确定性上升,商业调查指标普遍走 软。 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/rese ...

2025年3月17日 | 8:35PM EDT 美国经济日评: 新政府就职以来移民人数下降了多少? (书 雷 Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | ian.hatzius@gs.com 高盛集团 Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 alec.phillips@gs.com 高盛集团 manuel.abecasis@gs.com 高盛集团 Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com 高盛集团 Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com 高盛集团 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 ■ 美国的移民政策在2025年前两个月明显收紧。这导致人道主义移民和其他移民 (即未获得签证或绿卡的移民)的折年人数从140万人降至20万人。虽然驱逐出境 人数与以往的趋势基本一致，但流入人口的减少隐含月度折年净移民人数从12月 份的170万人 ...

16 March 2025 | 6:17PM EDT Global Market Views: Double Trouble for US Exceptionalism 1. Two stark shifts in macro markets. The past month has seen two important shifts across global markets. The first is a sharp re-rating lower of US growth in US stocks (especially cyclicals), rates and the Dollar, on the back of tariff volatility and the environment of broader policy uncertainty created by the new Administration. The second is a sharp re-rating higher in the fiscal impulse in Germany, with an associated up ...

16 March 2025 | 6:29PM EDT Oil Analyst Slower US GDP Growth; Lower Prices Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Callum Bruce, CFA +1(212)902-3053 | callum.bruce@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ephraim Sutherland +1(972)368-0395 | ephraim.sutherland@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg ...

16 March 2025 | 6:50PM EDT US Economics Analyst March FOMC Preview: On the Sidelines (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | els ...

17 March 2025 | 2:55AM HKT Navigating China Internet What to expect & key investor focuses into mega-caps Tencent, Meituan & PDD prints With Tencent, Meituan and PDD reporting this week, we expect solid 4Q24 results on the back of healthy goods/services consumption trends in the quarter (GSe: Tencent/Meituan/PDD top line growth of +8%/+19%/+24% yoy and adj. group EBIT growth of +22%/+405%/+11% yoy, respectively), while management commentaries on 2025 outlook/direction of 2025E EPS revisions will be key, giv ...

17 March 2025 | 2:54AM HKT Alibaba Group (BABA) Addressing key debates on Alibaba Cloud capex targets and outlook; Buy | BABA | 12m Price Target: $160.00 | Price: $141.10 | Upside: 13.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9988.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$156.00 | Price: HK$135.80 | Upside: 14.9% | The key investor focuses/debates following Alibaba's three-year capex target uplift and share price outperformance (+66%YTD vs. HSTECH +35%) have centered around the potential returns of its anticipated spending, and cap ...

(https://publishing.gs.com) Market Insights | Markets | Interest Rates Singapore Trip Notes – March 2025 | GS EM Marketstrats We were in Singapore seeing macro and corporate clients last week, with below key takeaways: Waning US exceptionalism view dominates, and clients see DXY hard to go higher. A combination of heightened policy uncertainty concern, expensive valuations in US asset, brighter stories elsewhere (Europe and China), clients agree that there is demand to diversify away from US assets. Many cl ...