Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Add" for China Duty Free Group (601888) with a target price based on the last closing price of 61.61 [1] Core Views - The overall performance of China Duty Free Group is under pressure, awaiting a recovery in consumer spending [1] - The significant decline in revenue and net profit is attributed to multiple factors including market conditions and industry cycles, with a notable drop in consumer demand impacting the duty-free sector [5] - The company is expected to see a rebound in profits from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 49.51 billion, 57.09 billion, and 64.41 billion respectively, indicating a growth rate of 16.04%, 15.31%, and 12.81% [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 564.74 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of 42.67 billion, down 36.44% [4][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 134.53 billion, a decline of 19.46%, and a net profit of 3.48 billion, down 76.93% [4] - The sales revenue from duty-free goods was approximately 386.66 billion, a decrease of 12.58%, while sales from taxable goods fell to about 170.95 billion, down 23.49% [5] - The revenue from Hainan, a key market, dropped significantly by 27.13% to about 288.92 billion, despite an increase in market share [5] Growth Potential - The domestic duty-free business performed well, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free countries and increased international flight volumes, with revenue from Beijing airports growing over 115% and Shanghai airports nearly 32% [6] - The company has made significant progress in channel expansion, securing operating rights for 10 new airport and port duty-free projects, and has signed agreements for six city duty-free stores [6] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 32.03%, a slight increase of 0.21 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 8.61%, down 2.15 percentage points [7][8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for 2025-2027 includes expected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.39, 2.76, and 3.11 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26X, 22X, and 20X [8][9] - Revenue projections for the next three years are 61.68 billion, 68.32 billion, and 75.32 billion, with growth rates of 9.23%, 10.76%, and 10.24% respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of 81.19, compared to the last closing price of 76.53 [1][6]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer is expected to face sales pressure in 2024, with a focus on waiting for demand recovery [1][5]. - The company's 2024 revenue is reported at 32.138 billion, a decrease of 5.30% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.345 billion, an increase of 1.81% year-on-year [5][8]. - The report highlights that the beer sales volume in 2024 is under pressure, with a total production of 35.213 million tons in China, down 0.6% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved a sales volume of 7.538 million tons, down 5.9% year-on-year, with an average price of 4189.3 yuan per ton, up 0.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The main brand sales volume was 4.34 million tons, down 4.8%, while other brands saw a decline of 7.2% [5][6]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton decreased to 2548 yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin of 40.23%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [6][8]. - The net profit margin reached 13.5%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 5% for 2025, 3% for 2026, and 2% for 2027, with net profit growth of 11%, 9%, and 7% respectively [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.53, 3.84, and 4.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22x, 20x, and 19x [6][8].

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with long-term bonds slightly rising and short-term bonds slightly falling. The overall tightening of the funding environment has raised the price center of funds, leading to a correction of previously overestimated interest rate cut expectations. The bond market has stabilized near the six-month line and currently presents allocation value. The technical rebound structure of the bond market remains intact, suggesting a continued bullish outlook [1][13]. - In the stock market, over 3,800 stocks declined amid overall market adjustments. With the upcoming tariff policies and earnings season, the market's overall adjustment is not yet over. Low-position dividend, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to yield excess returns. Without significant positive news, trading volume is unlikely to exceed 20 trillion. Investors are advised to reduce positions in technology stocks and focus on low-position dividend, consumer, and healthcare stocks [2][17]. - The foreign exchange market shows the onshore RMB against the USD at 7.2519, down 109 basis points from the previous close. The USD index has shown a bearish trend post-Fed meeting, with expectations of continued short-term rebounds. The CNY/USD has strong support around 7.1, and the RMB may face depreciation pressure in the medium to long term due to trade war pressures [3][21]. Group 2: Important Policies and News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a meeting to coordinate the management of overseas listing filings, emphasizing the importance of high-level opening of capital markets to support enterprises in integrating into the global economy [30]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has mandated a comprehensive review and cleanup of enterprise-related fee items to ensure each project has a basis, aiming to enhance transparency and accuracy in fee structures [30]. - The cancellation of housing sales restrictions in Nanjing is expected to meet various housing replacement needs, effective from March 31, 2025 [30].

电子 证券研究报告 |行业深度研究 2025/03/28 电子 行业深度研究———— 折叠屏催化不断，产业链增量未来可期 证券分析师: 张世杰(分析师) 证券分析师: 罗平(分析师) 分析师登记编号: S1190523020001 分析师登记编号: S1190524030001 P2 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 ➢ 折叠屏：智能手机的下一城。继头部品牌推出或计划推出折叠屏手机，硬件创新（尤其是中高端机型创新）的焦点 逐步转向折叠屏方向，而中国厂商有望保持全球最大的折叠屏手机市场份额，据IDC预测，中国折叠屏手机出货量未 来5年CAGR将高达19.8%。从产品创新及具体机型来看，国内手机厂商布局更加积极，据Counterpoint统计，2024Q1 华为首次超过三星，跃居季度全球出货量榜首。另据艾瑞消费研究院的统计，华为Mate X5、Mate X3、Pocket S； OPPO Find N2 Flip；荣耀Magic V2是2023年中国市场折叠屏手机销量Top5，其中华为独揽前三。海外品牌有望推出 或持续迭代折叠屏型号，以提升产品竞争力。 ➢ 折叠屏手机产业链日趋成 ...

2025 年 03 月 31 日 投资策略 流动性与仓位周观察——3 月第 4 期：资金净流出，流动性转弱 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/3/18 24/5/29 24/8/9 24/10/20 24/12/31 25/3/13 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 流动性转弱，交投活跃度下降。上周全 A 成交额 6.3 万亿，较前一周 下降，换手率 7.5%，较前一周下降，融资供给端中基金、ETF 净流入，两 融资金净流出；资金需求端 IPO 规模为 28.12 亿元，再融资规模 64.8 亿 元。市场资金合计净流出 43.91 亿元，流动性转弱。 国内流动性：上周公开市场操作净回笼资金 1429 亿元，DR007 上行， R007 同步上行，R007 与 DR007 利差扩大，金融机构间流动性未见明显分 层。利差来看，10 年期国债收益率下行 3bp，1 年 ...

2025 年 03 月 31 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250331）：全国首单"商改保"REITs 在上 交所上市 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/3/11 24/5/22 24/8/2 24/10/13 24/12/24 25/3/6 推荐公司及评级 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110003 报告摘要 市场行情： 2025 年 3 月 31 日，今日权益市场大部分板块下跌，上证综指和 深证成指分别下跌 0.46%和 0.97%，沪深 300 和中证 500 分别下跌 0.71%和 0.98%，申万房地产指数下跌 1.80%。 个股表现： 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250328）：杭 州挂牌出让 4 宗地块，成交楼面价纪 录再次被刷新>>--2025-03-28 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250327 ...

2025 年 03 月 31 日 投资策略 指数 PEG & PB-ROE: 红利 PEG 值最小，科创 50 风格 PB-ROE 值最小。 大类行业估值：原材料、设备制造、工业服务、交通运输、消费、科 技历史估值皆处于 50%以下，金融地产估值高于 50%历史分位。 估值与盈利周观察——3 月第 4 期：市场估值普跌，红利领涨 市场普跌，红利占优。上周宽基指数估值普跌，红利表现最优，微盘 股指数表现最弱。整体看，市场估值普跌，当前各宽基指数估值处于一年 来偏高分位。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，消费板块估值普遍较为便宜。 向前看，本周市场 ERP 小幅上升，处于一倍标准差附近。 市场表现：红利、消费、沪深 300 表现最好；微盘股、国证 2000、 成长表现最弱。 行业表现：医药生物、食品饮料、农林牧渔涨幅前三，计算机、国防 军工、通信表现最弱。 相对估值：创业板指/沪深 300 相对 PE 上升，创业板值/沪深 300 相 对 PB 下降。 全 A ERP：ERP 小幅上升，处于一倍标准差附近。 一级行业估值：各行业估值处于近一年偏高分位，非银金融、煤炭、 公用事业、交通运输、农林牧渔估值处于近一年低位 ...

2025 年 03 月 31 日 行业周报 看好/维持 基础化工 基础化工 化工周报（3/24-3/30）： 供应紧张推动溴素价格大幅上涨；制冷剂价格再次上调 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/3/25 24/6/5 24/8/16 24/10/27 25/1/7 25/3/20 相关研究报告 <<化工新材料周报：制冷剂价格持续 走强，关注 UHMWPE纤维>>--2025-03- 23 证券分析师：王亮 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 证券分析师：王海涛 E-MAIL：wanght@tpyzq.com 报告摘要 1.重点行业和产品情况跟踪 供应紧张推动溴素价格大幅上涨。本周溴素库存维持低位，进口 货源到货情况尚未明朗，导致行业供应偏紧。2025 年 1-2 月份，中国 共进口 13491.848 吨溴素,进口量环比减少 32.23%。其中，从以色列 进口溴 6842.03 吨，占总进口来源的 51%；中国从约旦进口溴 1987.23 吨，占总进口来源的 15%。根据百川盈孚数据，截至 3 月 30 日，溴素 ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/3/31 3月PMI数据点评—— 经济回升势头进一步明确 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 1、经济进一步回归常态化运行，制造业PMI延续回升态势 2、服务及建筑业共同支撑，非制造业持续扩张 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 图表1：PMI数据主要分项 | ➢ | | | 中国3月非制造业PMI50.8，前值50.4。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 图表1：PMI数据主要分项 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 项 目 | 较前值 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | 2024/12 | 2024/11 | 2024/10 | 2024/9 | 2024/8 | 2024/7 | 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group (000333) with a target price based on the last closing price of 76.87 [1] Core Insights - Midea Group achieved a total revenue of 409.08 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.54 billion yuan, up 14.29% year-on-year [4][10] - The company reported a strong performance in Q4 2024, with total revenue of 88.73 billion yuan, a 9.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.92% year-on-year growth [4][10] - Midea Group's dividend distribution plan includes a total payout of 26.71 billion yuan, with a dividend ratio of 69.3% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, Midea Group's revenue from the ToB business exceeded 100 billion yuan, with the smart home segment generating 269.53 billion yuan, a 9.41% increase year-on-year [5] - The COLMO and Toshiba high-end brands saw retail sales growth of 45% year-on-year, with COLMO's market share in the high-end segment significantly increasing [5] - The company's online and offline revenue reached 85.62 billion yuan and 321.53 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 10.72% and 9.10% [6] Profitability Metrics - Midea Group's gross margin for Q4 2024 was 25.20%, a decrease of 3.62 percentage points year-on-year, while the annual gross margin for manufacturing was 28.24%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points [6] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 improved to 7.49%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, indicating overall cost optimization [6] Future Projections - The report forecasts Midea Group's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 42.90 billion yuan, 46.96 billion yuan, and 50.45 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.60 yuan, 6.13 yuan, and 6.59 yuan [10] - The expected PE ratios for the same years are projected to be 13.73, 12.54, and 11.67 [10] Strategic Initiatives - Midea Group is focusing on technological advancements, with over 11,000 new patents granted in 2024 and participation in the formulation of 230 technical standards [9] - The company is expanding its global presence through the successful listing of H shares and establishing a comprehensive sales network in multiple overseas markets [9]