[Table_Title] 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Message]2025-12-18 金工 ETF 点评：宽基 ETF 单日净流入 163.36 亿元；非银、地产、社服拥挤变幅较大 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 证券分析师：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190525080001 一、资金流向 二、行业拥挤度监测 ◼ 通过构建行业拥挤度监测模型，对申万一级行业指数的拥挤度进行每日监测， 前一交易日农牧、军工、商贸零售靠前，相比较而言，计算机、家电、石化、 医药的拥挤度水平较低，建议关注。此外，非银、地产、社服拥挤度变动较 大。从主力资金流动来看，前一交易日主力资金流入通信、有色；流出军工、 汽车。近三个交易日主力资金减配电子、电力设备；增配商贸零售、食饮。 三、ETF 产品关注信号 ◼ 根据溢价率 Z-score 模型搭建相关 ETF 产品筛选信号模型，通过滚动测算提 供存在 ...

- The report introduces an **industry crowding monitoring model** to track the crowding levels of Shenwan primary industry indices on a daily basis. The model identifies industries with high crowding levels (e.g., agriculture, military, building materials) and low crowding levels (e.g., computers, home appliances, media) based on the previous trading day's data. It also highlights significant changes in crowding levels for industries such as automobiles, petrochemicals, and social services[3] - A **Z-score premium model** is constructed to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities. The model uses rolling calculations to identify ETFs with significant deviations in premium rates, which may indicate arbitrage opportunities or potential risks of price corrections[4] - The report provides detailed data on **ETF fund flows**, categorizing them into broad-based ETFs, industry-themed ETFs, style-strategy ETFs, and cross-border ETFs. For example, broad-based ETFs saw a net inflow of 60.55 billion yuan in a single day, with the top inflows being the CSI A500 ETF (+10.42 billion yuan), CSI A500 ETF South (+10.23 billion yuan), and STAR 50 ETF (+8.62 billion yuan)[5] - The report highlights **industry crowding levels** over the past 30 trading days, presenting a heatmap that shows the relative crowding levels of various industries. For instance, industries like public utilities, agriculture, and military defense exhibit high crowding levels, while industries like computers and media show relatively low levels[9] - The report identifies **key ETF trading signals**, recommending attention to specific ETFs such as the CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF, Chuangzhongpan 88 ETF, and Medical Device ETF based on their potential for investment opportunities[11]

- The report constructs an industry congestion monitoring model to monitor the congestion levels of Shenwan first-level industry indices on a daily basis[3] - The ETF product screening signal model is built based on the premium rate Z-score model, which provides potential arbitrage opportunities through rolling calculations[4] - The industry congestion monitoring model indicates that the congestion levels of communication, military, and building materials were high on the previous trading day, while the congestion levels of computers and automobiles were relatively low[3] - The ETF product screening signal model suggests caution regarding the potential pullback risk of the identified targets[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Zhongyuan Expressway (600020) [1][5] Core Views - Zhongyuan Expressway has shown steady profit growth in 2025, with a projected completion of new road assets in the coming year [1][4] - The company reported a total revenue of 4.888 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 961 million RMB, up 16.78% year-on-year [3][4] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% over the next three years, with a cash dividend of approximately 382 million RMB for 2024, translating to a dividend per share of about 0.17 RMB [3][4] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.969 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 22.20% [6] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 999 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.62% [6] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.44 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9.72 [6][8] - The company's core business, highway toll revenue, accounted for 72% of total revenue, with a gross profit contribution of 1.837 billion RMB [4][6]

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report indicates a long-term downtrend in the bond market, with a target for the 30-year government bond near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][17][10] - The A-share market is at a critical juncture, with the index approaching a support level of 3850 points, suggesting a potential for significant market movement [5][21][10] - The report highlights a shift in focus towards domestic consumption, driven by recent central economic work meetings, which may influence sector performance [5][21] Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The insurance and beverage manufacturing sectors are showing strength, while the semiconductor sector is underperforming [21] - The report notes that the U.S. stock market is experiencing a style shift, with technology stocks facing downward pressure due to concerns over AI bubbles and rising bond yields [25][27] - The commodity market is expected to remain volatile, with the renewable energy sector leading gains, while agricultural products are lagging [32][10] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - In November, China's retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while industrial output grew by 4.8% [36][40] - The report mentions a price surge in lithium iron phosphate, with leading companies raising prices by 2000 to 3000 yuan per ton due to increased demand and rising raw material costs [36][38] - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the dollar, indicating strong market expectations for RMB stability [30][31]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowding levels to provide actionable insights for investors[3] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the crowding levels of various industries based on daily data. It ranks industries by their crowding levels, highlighting those with significant changes. For example, the previous trading day showed high crowding in communication, military, and electronics, while computer, automotive, and media had lower crowding levels. The model also tracks main fund flows to identify industries with increased or decreased allocations[3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a useful tool for identifying industry trends and potential investment opportunities by analyzing crowding dynamics[3] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of premium rates over a rolling window[4] - **Model Construction Process**: The Z-score is calculated as follows: $ Z = \frac{(P - \mu)}{\sigma} $ Where: - $ P $ is the current premium rate - $ \mu $ is the mean premium rate over the rolling window - $ \sigma $ is the standard deviation of the premium rate over the rolling window The model flags ETFs with significant deviations from their historical premium rates, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities. It also warns of potential risks of price corrections for these ETFs[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying ETFs with significant pricing anomalies, providing actionable signals for arbitrage strategies[4] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - No specific numerical backtesting results were provided for this model[3] 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - No specific numerical backtesting results were provided for this model[4] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were mentioned in the report. --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific quantitative factor backtesting results were mentioned in the report.

化工&新材料|2026年度策略报告 证券研究报告 2025/12/14 "反内卷"催化周期复苏，"新经济"拉动新材料成长 | 证券分析师: | 王亮 | | --- | --- | | 分析师登记编号: | S1190522120001 | | 证券分析师: | 王海涛 | | 分析师登记编号: | S1190523010001 | 目录 ➢ 电子化学品、新能源上游材料、机器人/低空经济材料、生物基能源及材料等 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明 2 一、 2025年化工行业回顾及2026年展望…………………………………………………4 二、"反内卷"催化周期复苏：关注供需格局的边际改善……………………………….…16 ➢ 石化炼化、农化板块、民爆、氟化工、地产链材料等 三、"新经济"拉动新材料成长：高性能材料国产替代正当时………………….............…32 四、重点公司推荐…………………………...…………………………………….…….……52 五、风险提示………………………………...………………………………….………….…60 化工&新材料产业链上下游概览 细分子行业 典型产品 主要下游 农业、粮食 纺 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a V-shaped reversal and breaking above previous resistance levels, suggesting a potential spring rally [5][18] - The report maintains a focus on technology and non-ferrous metals as the best investment choices, with a target for the Shanghai Composite Index to surpass 4034 points [5][18] - The U.S. stock market is expected to rise further, with Google emerging as a new leader in the AI sector, replacing Nvidia, and the Dow Jones index showing strong performance [24][25] Group 2: Market Trends and Analysis - The bond market is in a long-term downtrend, with the target for the 30-year government bond set near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][15] - The commodity market is experiencing a mixed performance, with precious metals leading the gains while steel and construction materials are underperforming [31] - The foreign exchange market shows a strong performance for the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar, with expectations of a stable yet fluctuating trend [26][7] Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Developments - Domestic policies include the introduction of optimized regulatory measures for lithium thionyl chloride batteries, aimed at enhancing trade facilitation and aligning with international standards [33] - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal policies to support economic stability and growth [34] - Internationally, the U.S. has signed agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Australia to strengthen the rare earth supply chain, indicating a strategic focus on technology competition [35]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, with expectations that the overall return will exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index down by 0.70% and 1.41% respectively, and the Shenwan Real Estate Index down by 3.06% on December 11, 2025 [3][4]. - Recent land sales in Wuxi and Taishan indicate active market transactions, with Wuxi's three residential land parcels sold at a total price of 3.225 billion yuan, and Taishan's two residential plots sold for a total of 306 million yuan [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On December 11, 2025, the equity market saw most sectors decline, with significant drops in major indices [3]. - The real estate sector's individual stock performance showed notable gains for companies like Nandu Property and Jingtou Development, while others like China Wuyi and Huangting International faced significant losses [4]. Industry News - Wuxi's three residential land parcels were sold at the base price, totaling 3.225 billion yuan, with the highest floor price reaching 15,075 yuan per square meter [5]. - In Taishan, two residential plots were sold at a total of 306 million yuan, with specific requirements for commercial space and green area ratios [6][7]. Company Announcements - China Communications Construction Company announced a reduction in the interest rate for its MTN bond to 2.1% [8]. - Zhuhai Huafa Industrial Company disclosed plans for a short-term financing bond issuance of 1 billion yuan, aimed at refinancing existing debt [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry rating but emphasizes a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector based on the central economic work conference's focus on domestic demand and consumption opportunities [5][6]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand, aiming to boost consumption through various initiatives, including income distribution reforms and the removal of unreasonable consumption restrictions, which is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector [6][7]. - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry could see structural opportunities in 2026, driven by high-growth companies and favorable policy directions [7]. Sub-industry Ratings - No specific ratings are provided for sub-industries such as liquor, beverages, and food [3]. - Recommended companies include: - Guizhou Moutai: Buy - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold - Guming: Buy - Mixue Group: Hold - Ximai Food: Buy - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy - Wancheng Group: Buy - Pop Mart: Buy - Yanjing Beer: Hold - Dashihua: Buy [3][11]. Recommended Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report includes earnings forecasts for recommended companies, indicating expected growth in EPS from 2024 to 2027 for each company, with Guizhou Moutai projected to have an EPS of 80.79 in 2027 [11].