策 略 研 究 太 平 洋 证 券 投资策略 策略日报（2025.03.27）低位补涨 相关研究报告 <<不输为赢>>--2025-03-23 沸>>--2025-03-03 <<策略日报（2025.03.26）成交缩量， 红利为王>>--2025-03-26 小盘扯呼>>--2025-03-25 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券研究助理：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 一般证券从业编号：S1190123050005 2025 年 03 月 27 日 大类资产跟踪 << 无 人 问 津 与 人 声 鼎 债券市场：利率债普跌。今年节后，由于资金面持续偏紧，资金价 格中枢整体抬升，此前过度计价的降息预期得到修正，债市如期在半年线 附近企稳回升，目前已具备配置价值。消息面上，央行副行长表示将根 据国内外经济金融形势择机降准降息，债市尾盘受挫，消极对待。但技 术面上债市的反弹结构保持完好，可继续高看一线。考虑到"适度宽松" 的基调表态，和风险偏好因素，建议在做好久期管理的背景下进行配置。 股 份 有 限 公 司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 435 HKD, compared to the last closing price of 410.40 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company, Mixue Group, reported a total revenue of 24.829 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, and a net profit of 4.437 billion CNY, up 41.4% year-on-year [1][3]. - The number of stores exceeded 46,479, with a rapid expansion in third-tier and lower cities, indicating strong store opening momentum [2][3]. - The company's gross margin improved to 32.46%, driven by enhanced supply chain efficiency and reduced raw material costs, contributing to a significant increase in net profit margin to 19.94% [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 24.829 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 22% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 was 4.437 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 41% [5]. - The average revenue per store was 591,000 CNY, showing a slight decline of 3.2% year-on-year [1][2]. Store Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company had 46,479 stores, with a net increase of 8,350 stores year-on-year [2]. - The distribution of stores across different city tiers is as follows: first-tier (1,983), new first-tier (8,143), second-tier (7,600), and third-tier and below (23,858) [2]. - The franchise model remains robust, with 46,462 franchise stores and a closure rate of 3.8% [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 32.46%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net profit margin increased significantly to 19.94%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 20%, 18%, and 16% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 15%, 19%, and 17% [3][5].

(30%) (12%) 6% 24% 42% 60% 24/3/27 24/6/7 24/8/18 24/10/29 25/1/9 25/3/22 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 31.13/31.13 总市值/流通(亿港元) 467.52/467.52 12 个月内最高/最低价 (港元) 17.28/9 2025 年 03 月 27 日 公司点评 买入/维持 雅迪控股(01585) 目标价: 昨收盘:15.02 雅迪控股：2024H2 业绩短期承压，中高端+出海值得期待 ◼ 走势比较 相关研究报告 <<收入利润双位数增长，优化产品结 构和终端有望持续增厚业绩>>-- 2024-03-20 <<雅迪控股 23H1 点评：拓展价格带 推升销量，盈利压力逐步释放>>-- 2023-08-30 证券分析师：孟昕 E-MAIL：mengxin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524020001 研究助理：赵梦菲 E-MAIL：zhaomf@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124030006 研究助理：金桐羽 E-MAIL：jinty@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1 ...

申万一级电子指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Title] 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Message]2025-03-27 结果评估： 区间年化收益：-5.48% 波动率（年化）：32.72% 夏普率：-0.17 最大回撤：38.97% 指数期间总回报率：31.87 % 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 融 工 程 点 评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 [Table_Summary] 图表 1 净值 图表 2 历史高点 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2023-03-07 2023-04-12 2023-05-22 2023-06-28 2023-08-02 2023-09-06 2023-10-19 2023-11-23 2023-12 ...

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] [Table_Message]2025-03-27 金工 ETF 点评：宽基 ETF 单日净流入 21.43 亿元；电子、传媒拥挤收窄 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 一、资金流向 二、行业拥挤度监测 ◼ 通过构建行业拥挤度监测模型，对申万一级行业指数的拥挤度进行每日监测， 前一交易日机械设备、基础化工、电力设备拥挤度靠前，相比较而言，传媒、 非银金融、房地产、电子的拥挤度水平较低，建议关注。此外，农林牧渔、通 信单日拥挤度变动较大。从主力资金流动来看，前一交易日主力资金流入汽 车、电力设备，小幅流出计算机、电子。近三个交易日主力资金增配有色金 属、煤炭，大幅减配计算机、电子。 三、ETF 产品关注信号 ◼ 宽基 ETF：宽基 ETF 单日净流入 21.43 亿元，其中， ...

申万一级有色金属趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] [Table_Message]2025-03-27 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 结果评估： 区间年化收益：-4.71% 波动率（年化）：24.98% 夏普率：-0.19 最大回撤：25.42% 指数期间总回报率：-0.03% 融 工 程 点 评 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 资料来源：Wind，太平洋研究院 资源来源：Wind，太平洋研究院 图表 3 回撤（绝对值） 图表 4 最大回撤（绝对值） 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 2023-03-07 2023-04-17 2023-05-30 ...

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" for the sub-sectors including general steel, other steel, and special materials [8] Core Insights - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced that the steel industry will be included in the national carbon market management, which is expected to drive low-carbon technology innovation and the elimination of outdated production capacity [7] - The overall performance of the steel sector has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.26% on March 26, 2025 [4] - The steel industry is experiencing a mixed performance among individual stocks, with the top three gainers being Hengxing Technology (+6.25%), Yitong New Materials (+4.71%), and Hangang Co. (+4.58%), while the top three losers are Bayi Steel (-3.47%), Xining Special Steel (-3.23%), and Shibi Bai (-2.22%) [5] Industry Data Summary - Futures prices show slight fluctuations: rebar (+0.06%), wire rod (-0.35%), hot-rolled coil (+0.12%), iron ore (+0.19%), coke (+1.35%), and coking coal (-0.05%) [6] - Current prices for steel products are as follows: iron ore at 758.53 yuan/ton, wire rod at 3431.99 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3399.27 yuan/ton, rebar at 3235.18 yuan/ton, coke at 1626.75 yuan/ton, and coking coal at 1042.14 yuan/ton [6] - The iron ore Platts index shows 65% fines at 114.95, 58% fines at 87.45, and 62% fines at 102.55 [6] Company Announcements - Hebei Steel Group has delivered Q345qENH bridge steel for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei expressway project, ensuring high-quality delivery to meet strict customer requirements [9] - Shougang Group has developed a low-carbon project with Zhongshan Qinggui, achieving 100% recycling of scrap steel and a 30% reduction in carbon emissions [9] - Fangda Special Steel has completed ultra-low emission transformation projects and implemented a smart control platform for real-time monitoring of pollutant emissions [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (000157) with a target price of 9.84, compared to the last closing price of 7.82 [1]. Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, and there is optimism regarding its globalization and diversification strategies [1][7]. - The report highlights a decline in revenue for 2024, amounting to 454.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.41% to 35.20 billion yuan [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 28.17% and a net margin of 8.81%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.63 percentage points and 0.80 percentage points, respectively [7]. - The company’s accounts receivable decreased by 10.26 billion yuan, a reduction of 20.16%, and inventory decreased by 1.76 billion yuan, a decline of 7.24% [7]. - The comprehensive collection rate reached 120.29%, an increase of 13.26 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 530.65 billion yuan, 624.63 billion yuan, and 718.32 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of 50.23 billion yuan, 63.01 billion yuan, and 76.16 billion yuan [8]. - The expected revenue growth rates for these years are 16.7%, 17.7%, and 15.0%, respectively [8]. Market Position and Growth - The company’s traditional product lines, including concrete machinery and engineering cranes, are performing steadily, with overall export sales growing by over 35% [5]. - Emerging industries are also expanding, with significant growth in earth-moving machinery, agricultural machinery, and other new business segments [5]. - The company’s international strategy is progressing, with overseas revenue reaching 233.80 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.58%, accounting for 51.41% of total revenue [6]. Stock Data - The total share capital is 8.678 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of 678.62 billion yuan [3]. - The stock has seen a 12-month high of 9.53 yuan and a low of 5.72 yuan [3].

- The industry crowding monitoring model was constructed to monitor the daily crowding levels of Shenwan primary industry indices. The model identified high crowding levels in mechanical equipment, steel, and social services, while real estate, non-bank finance, and media showed lower crowding levels. Significant single-day crowding changes were observed in coal and public utilities[3] - The Z-score model was developed to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities. The model uses rolling calculations to identify signals and also warns of potential risks of price corrections for the identified ETFs[4] - Daily net inflows and outflows of various ETF categories were analyzed, including broad-based ETFs, industry-themed ETFs, style-strategy ETFs, and cross-border ETFs. For example, the top three net inflow ETFs in the broad-based category were Sci-Tech 50 ETF (+8.03 billion yuan), Sci-Tech Board 50 ETF (+2.99 billion yuan), and A500 Index ETF (+1.48 billion yuan), while the top three net outflow ETFs were CSI 1000 ETF (-6.33 billion yuan), CSI 300 ETF (-3.81 billion yuan), and CSI 2000 ETF (-2.69 billion yuan[6][7] - The report provided a heatmap of industry crowding levels over the past 30 trading days, offering a visual representation of crowding trends across various industries[9] - The report included a table summarizing ETF product signals, highlighting specific ETFs such as the Chinese Medicine ETF, Medical Device Index ETF, and Electric Power ETF, which were flagged for potential attention based on the constructed models[12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Resources Beverage (02460) with a target price of HKD 18.75, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the market index in the next six months [1][6][12]. Core Insights - China Resources Beverage achieved a revenue of HKD 13.521 billion in 2024, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 23.12% to HKD 1.637 billion. The company declared a total cash dividend of HKD 1.158 billion, with a payout ratio of 70.77% [3][4][5]. - The company’s packaging water segment saw a revenue decline of 2.6% to HKD 12.124 billion, accounting for 89.7% of total revenue, while the second-line beverage business grew by 30.8% to HKD 1.4 billion, representing 10.3% of total revenue [4][5]. - The gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 47.3%, driven by increased self-owned production capacity and reduced outsourcing costs. The net profit margin also increased by 2.3 percentage points to 12.1% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of HKD 13.521 billion and a net profit of HKD 1.637 billion, with respective growth rates of 0.05% and 23.12% [3][7]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 14.453 billion, HKD 15.261 billion, and HKD 16.075 billion, with growth rates of 7%, 6%, and 5% respectively [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence in the large packaging water segment, which has shown a revenue increase of 8.6% year-on-year, while small packaging products faced a decline due to competitive pricing [4][5]. - The introduction of new products, such as the "Zhi Ben Qing Run" series, has significantly boosted sales, with a 122% increase in volume for this product line [4][6]. Operational Efficiency - The report highlights that internal efficiency improvements have led to a decrease in unit production costs, contributing to a notable increase in profitability [5][6]. - The company plans to further enhance its production capacity and reduce logistics costs by expanding its distribution network and optimizing transportation methods [6][9].