2026-02-12 金融工程 春节日历效应下的海内外市场表现研究 相关研究报告 报告摘要 以 2010 年至 2025 年共 16 个春节周期为样本，从海内外宽基指 数、行业板块、市场风格三个维度，考察春节前后不同窗口下的收益 表现、胜率分布及轮动规律。 A 股市场的春节日历效应呈现节前普涨、节后结构分化特征。节 前 5 个交易日主要指数多数上涨，万得全 A 中位数涨幅 2.59%、上涨 概率 68.75%。节后市场动能向中小市值倾斜，中证 1000、中证 2000、 微盘股在节后 20 个交易日涨幅中位数分别为 6.72%、8.35%、11.29%， 上涨比率均超 87%；上证 50、沪深 300 同期涨幅不足 2%，胜率回落至 60%左右，市值越小，节后弹性越强，胜率越高的分层规律较为稳定。 港股市场春节效应温和。恒生指数在节前、节假日（A 股休市、 港股交易）及节后 5 个交易日平均涨幅 0.12%、0.39%、0.55%，上涨 比率 56%-63%，弹性与确定性均弱于 A 股中小盘风格。 海外主要市场存在节后温和正收益倾向。标普 500、德国 DAX 等 指数节后 5 个交易日涨幅中位数 0.9%- ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2026/2/13 CPI环比弱于季节性，PPI同比降幅收窄 ——1月通胀数据点评 | 证券分析师： | 徐超 | | --- | --- | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190521050001 | | 证券分析师： | 戴梓涵 | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190524110003 | 报告摘要 事件：2月11日，国家统计局公布数据显示，2026年1月，全国居民消费价格(CPI) 同比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%， 剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%；全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降1.4%，降幅较上月收窄0.5个百 分点，环比上涨0.4%。 一、CPI同比涨幅收窄，环比弱于季节性 1月份CPI同比上涨0.2%，涨幅较上月收窄0.6个百分点，0.2%的涨幅中，翘尾因素影响为0%，较上月下降0.2个百分 点，可见物价是导致CPI同比降幅收窄的主要原因，本月CPI表现低于市场预期，考虑到今年春节错月，去年同期基 数较高，扣除波动较大的食品能源价格的核心CPI同比增长0.8%，涨幅较上月收窄0.4个百分点，环比增长0.3%，涨 幅为最近六个月新高。1月CP ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shoulu Hotel (600258) with a target price based on the last closing price of 16.90 [1][10]. Core Insights - Shoulu Hotel is investing in new hotel constructions to expand its assets, focusing on mid-to-high-end hotel segments in key urban areas, which reflects a strategic move to optimize its development model and capitalize on industry recovery opportunities [4][6]. - The company is adopting a dual approach of "new construction and leasing" to balance long-term asset accumulation with short-term profit realization, which aligns with the trend of combining light and heavy asset models in the hotel industry [8][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Projects - Shoulu Hotel's subsidiary, Home Inn (China), plans to invest 280.51 million yuan in a new hotel in Suzhou, with an expected internal rate of return (IRR) of about 4% and a construction period of 14 months [3][4]. - The company also intends to lease a property in Beijing for 322.75 million yuan, with an expected IRR of approximately 12% and a construction period of 9-10 months [3][4]. Strategic Positioning - The projects are strategically located in high-potential areas, covering the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic zones, which are crucial for long-term performance growth [5][6]. - The Suzhou project is positioned in a provincial high-tech zone, benefiting from strong business and leisure demand, while the Beijing project is near major cultural and tourism attractions, enhancing its market presence [5][6]. Brand and Market Strategy - Both projects focus on mid-to-high-end brands, with a multi-brand strategy to cater to different customer segments, thereby avoiding internal brand competition and enhancing overall market competitiveness [7][8]. - The company aims to optimize its product structure and reduce reliance on low-end economy hotels, aligning with the trend of consumer upgrading in the hotel industry [7][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a positive outlook, with expected net profits of 8.44 billion, 9.49 billion, and 10.87 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 4.65%, 12.51%, and 14.47% respectively [10][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.76, 0.85, and 0.97 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22X, 20X, and 17X [10][12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is neutral, indicating that the overall return is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Eli Lilly's new drug, Migalastat, has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in China for the treatment of moderate to severe active Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) in adults. This drug selectively inhibits the IL-23 pathway, which is involved in immune inflammatory responses [5]. - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a slight decline of -0.32% on February 11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [4]. - Notable stock performances included Teva Biopharmaceuticals (+6.01%), ZhenDe Medical (+5.87%), and Keyuan Pharmaceutical (+5.79%) on the gainers' list, while Huakang Clean (-5.28%), Hualan Biologicals (-5.11%), and Qianyuan Pharmaceutical (-4.67%) led the decliners [4]. Sub-industry Summary - Chemical Pharmaceuticals: No rating [3] - Traditional Chinese Medicine: No rating [3] - Biopharmaceuticals II: Neutral [3] - Other Pharmaceutical Industries: Neutral [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is neutral, indicating that the overall return is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Roche's Fenebrutinib has successfully completed its Phase III clinical trial, demonstrating non-inferiority in reducing disability progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) patients compared to the approved therapy Ocrevus, with a 12% reduction in risk [5]. - The pharmaceutical sector showed a slight increase of 0.60% on February 9, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.49 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 sub-industries [4]. - Among sub-industries, medical research outsourcing (+1.94%), other biological products (+0.69%), and medical consumables (+0.59%) performed well, while vaccines (-0.70%), offline pharmacies (-0.49%), and pharmaceutical distribution (-0.41%) lagged [4]. Sub-industry Summary - Chemical pharmaceuticals: No rating [3] - Traditional Chinese medicine production: No rating [3] - Biopharmaceuticals II: Neutral [3] - Other pharmaceutical sectors: Neutral [3]

厦门国贸，点评，26 年初，披露五年战略规划，指引未来方向 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) 2% 14% 26% 38% 50% 25/2/10 25/4/24 25/7/6 25/9/17 25/11/29 26/2/10 厦门国贸 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 21.38/21.32 总市值/流通(亿元) 143.43/143.07 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 8.72/5.8 证券分析师：程志峰 电话：010-88321701 E-MAIL：chengzf@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190513090001 ■ 事件 2026 年 02 月 10 日 公司点评 增持/首次 厦门国贸(600755) 目标价: 昨收盘:6.71 2026 年 1 月，厦门国贸披露《五年发展战略规划纲要（2026-2030）》。 回顾 23-24 年，公司归母净利润分别为：19.15 亿，6.26 亿；25 年前三 季度为 5.77 亿，同比幅度减少-18.94%。 ■ 点评 公司诞生于 1980 年的厦门，起步于进出口贸易业务，逐渐延伸到大 宗商品领域。目前是以供应链管理为公司的核心支柱产业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance forecast indicates a significant increase in net profit, with an expected range of CNY 91.9 million to CNY 101.92 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.29% to 79.99% [4] - The improvement in performance is attributed to cost reduction and efficiency enhancement in the corn seed business, alongside a rise in sales of genetically modified corn seeds [4][6] - The company is recognized as a leading player in the hybrid corn seed industry, with notable advantages in seed resources and varieties [5] Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve a net profit of CNY 162 million and CNY 183 million for the years 2026 and 2027, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at CNY 0.18 and CNY 0.21 [6][7] - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at CNY 1.25 billion, with a slight growth rate of 0.37% compared to the previous year [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 30.11% in 2026 and 30.90% in 2027 [13]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs has led to the acceptance of 10 funds, with a total expected fundraising of approximately 37.7 billion yuan, including various asset types such as commercial complexes, office buildings, retail, and hotels [3][4][8]. - The public REITs market is expanding, with 79 public REITs issued to date, primarily in infrastructure sectors like highways and municipal facilities. The inclusion of commercial real estate in the REITs framework is expected to further enhance market growth and assist real estate companies in revitalizing their existing assets [4][12][15]. - The underlying assets of the accepted REITs include a mix of retail, office, hotel, and commercial complex projects, with state-owned enterprises accounting for 50% of the original rights holders [9][11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Acceptance of Commercial Real Estate REITs - As of February 2026, 10 commercial real estate REITs have been accepted, with the first batch of 8 disclosed on January 29-30, 2026, and an additional 2 on February 5, 2026. The expected total fundraising is around 37.7 billion yuan [3][8]. - The asset types include commercial complexes, office buildings, retail, and hotels, with a significant portion of the original rights holders being state-owned enterprises [9][11]. Section 2: Expansion of Public REITs Market - The public REITs market has seen continuous growth, with a total of 79 public REITs issued, amounting to 203.37 billion yuan. The majority of these are concentrated in transportation and municipal infrastructure [12][15]. - The new policy for commercial real estate REITs is expected to help real estate companies convert their existing assets into cash flow, alleviating debt pressure and promoting industry transformation [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Shandong Expressway (600350) [1][5] Core Views - The introduction of a new shareholder, Anhui Expressway, is expected to enhance collaboration in traditional road network connectivity, operational improvements, and technological applications [5] - The transaction allows Shandong Expressway to slightly reduce its shareholder ratio, providing more room for future capital operations [5] - The company has shown stable operational performance with a net profit of 2.619 billion RMB for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.11% [4] - The average dividend payout ratio over the past five years is approximately 65%, indicating a solid foundation for shareholder value [4] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 4.835 billion [3] - Total market capitalization: 49.216 billion RMB [3] - The highest and lowest stock prices in the last 12 months were 11.57 RMB and 8.47 RMB, respectively [3] - Forecasted revenue for 2024 is 28.494 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.34% [6] - Projected net profit for 2026 is 3.402 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.83% [6] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is estimated at 0.70 RMB [6] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is projected to be 14.47 [6]

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the agriculture industry is "Positive" [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural investment opportunities following the release of the central government's No. 1 document, which highlights the need for comprehensive capacity regulation in the pig farming industry [5][19]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the livestock and planting sectors, particularly focusing on companies with low valuations and strong growth potential [6][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock Industry - **Pig Farming**: The average price for pigs is 12.14 CNY/kg, a slight decrease of 0.16 CNY from the previous week. The average price for piglets is 29.24 CNY/kg, which increased by 0.62 CNY [5][19]. The industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in production capacity, with the number of breeding sows decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year [6][20]. - **Chicken Farming**: The average price for broiler chickens is 14 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.3 CNY increase. However, the industry is facing challenges with profitability, as the average loss per chicken is 0.26 CNY [21][22]. The report suggests that chicken prices may remain volatile in the medium term due to high production levels [21][22]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Zhongchong Co., Muyuan Foods, and Suqian Agricultural Development are rated as "Buy" due to their strong market positions and growth potential [3][10]. Planting Industry - **Seed Industry**: The No. 1 document promotes the industrialization of biotechnology in agriculture, which is expected to enhance the seed supply chain and improve the market environment for genetically modified crops [11][23]. The report gives a positive rating for the seed industry, highlighting the long-term investment value of leading companies [11][23]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent trends indicate that grain prices are likely to continue rising due to increased demand and reduced supply. The average price for corn is 2394 CNY/ton, and for wheat, it is 2531 CNY/ton, both showing slight increases [12][24]. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the planting sector, particularly in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development [12][24].