2025 年 12 月 12 日 行业日报 看好/维持 非银行金融 非银行金融 内需为本，改革为楫：2025 年中央经济工作会议精神与对金融行 业影响解读 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 24/12/12 25/2/22 25/5/5 25/7/16 25/9/26 25/12/7 非银行金融 沪深300 ◼ 子行业评级 从"总量扩张"转向"质效提升"，注重跨周期调节。会议提出五个 "必须"，包括"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"、"必须坚持政策支持和改革创 新并举"等，凸显政策思路从短期逆周期调节向中长期结构性改革深化。 与 2024 年会议相比，本次会议更注重供需平衡的修复，而非单纯的需求 刺激，政策工具更强调"存量与增量并重"。例如：财政政策从"加大强 度"转为"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"，重心转向优 化支出结构、化解地方财政压力，而非进一步扩大赤字；货币政策明确将 "促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升"作为核心目标，提出"灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种政策工具"，但更注重传导机制畅通，避免"大水漫灌"； 这一导向对金融行业意味着政策环境趋于稳定，金融机构需更聚焦 ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日 行业策略 看好/维持 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (4%) 12% 28% 44% 60% 24/12/12 25/2/22 25/5/5 25/7/16 25/9/26 25/12/7 电子 沪深300 ◼ 子行业评级 相关研究报告 证券分析师：张世杰 E-MAIL：zhangsj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523020001 证券分析师：罗平 E-MAIL：luoping@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524030001 电子 电子 端侧创新促内需，科技发展强产业 事件：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日-11 日在北京召开。 会议明确了明年经济工作八大重点任务，其中"坚持内需主导，建设强大 国内市场"是首要任务。会议中提到的，扩大优质商品和服务供给；优化 "两新"政策实施等方面，对电子行业而言，AI 端侧创新可以提供全新 的电子消费品，有望通过现有品类"升级+扩展"进一步拉动电子产品市 场的消费活力。据弗若斯特沙利文预测，全球端侧 AI 市场将在 2025-2029 年间实现跨越式增长，市场规模预计从 3219 亿元跃升至 12230 ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/12/11 出口保持韧性，进口同比增速小幅提升 ——11月贸易数据点评 | 证券分析师： | 徐超 | | --- | --- | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190521050001 | | 证券分析师： | 戴梓涵 | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190524110003 | 报告摘要 事件：12月8日，海关总署发布数据显示，11月中国以美元计价出口3303.5亿美元，同比增长5.9%，前值下降1.1%。 进口2186.7亿美元，同比增长1.9%，前值增长1%。中国11月贸易顺差1116.8亿美元，前值为900.7亿美元。 一、低基数叠加市场多元化发展，出口同比超预期增长。 11月我国出口3303.5亿美元，同比增长5.9%，而上月同比下降1.1%，增速由负转正，11月出口环比增长8.2%，高于 2021-2023年均值4.7%。本月出口同比增速表现超出市场预期，可能受以下因素影响：一是受到去年低基数效应的影 响，2024年11月出口同比增速为6.6%，显著低于前期水平，环比增速为1%，明显弱于季节性，二是我国继续拓展出 口市场多元化发展，如欧盟、日韩、拉丁美 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowding levels and significant changes in crowding dynamics[3] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the crowding levels of various industries based on daily data. It identifies industries with the highest and lowest crowding levels and highlights industries with significant changes in crowding dynamics. Specific calculation methods or formulas are not provided in the report[3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights into industry crowding trends, helping investors identify potential opportunities or risks in crowded or undercrowded sectors[3] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is used to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities by calculating the Z-score of premium rates on a rolling basis[4] - **Model Construction Process**: The Z-score of the premium rate is calculated for each ETF product over a rolling window. The Z-score helps identify ETFs with significant deviations from their historical premium rates, signaling potential arbitrage opportunities. Specific formulas or parameters are not detailed in the report[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities, but it also warns of potential risks of price corrections in the identified ETFs[4] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided for this model in the report[3] 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided for this model in the report[4] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors are mentioned or constructed in the report --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific backtesting results for factors are mentioned in the report

策 略 研 究 太 平 2025 年 12 月 11 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.12.11）：支撑与压力 相关研究报告 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 升>>--2025-12-10 强>>--2025-12-09 <<策略日报（2025.12.08）：等新 高>>--2025-12-08 来！>>--2025-12-05 重回低位>>--2025-12-04 来>>--2025-12-03 发>>--2025-12-02 势异也>>--2025-12-01 电话： E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：徐梓铭 电话： E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525050001 大类资产跟踪 <<策略日报（2025.12.10）：探底回 <<策略日报（2025.12.09）：强者恒 债市：利率债整体反弹，日线接近压力，目前尚未见反转迹象，大 趋势下跌未结束。长端利率债今日破位后加速下行，符合我们一直以来 的判断。我们维持此前的判断：往后看，股市和商品有共振走强的迹象， 债市在 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the sub-industries within the power equipment and new energy sector [2]. Core Insights - The industry is entering a critical layout period, with Longi's announcement indicating a reversal opportunity [3]. - The lithium battery supply chain's price negotiations and the progress of new energy combined with AI are key investment focuses, suggesting that lowered expectations present new layout opportunities [3]. - The new energy vehicle supply chain has entered a new upward cycle, with significant production levels expected [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Chain Prices - Recent price increases in lithium battery materials, including a 5% rise in cobalt and electrolyte prices [11][24]. - The overall industry supply-demand balance remains stable, with some products entering a destocking phase [25]. Industry News Tracking - The report highlights the ongoing developments in the new energy and AI sectors, including Tesla's advancements in humanoid robots and Longi's employee stock ownership plan [24][31]. - The report notes that the National Development and Reform Commission has revised pricing mechanisms for new energy storage, promoting market competition [27]. Recommended Companies and Ratings - Longi Green Energy, GCL-Poly Energy, and Aiko Solar are highlighted as companies to watch due to their technological leadership and potential for growth [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies with pricing power, such as CATL and BYD, in the lithium battery market [3][4].

债 债券周报 券 。 2025-12-08 [ T [Table_Title] 公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌，国家发改委拓展 REITs 行业范围清单 公募 REITs 周报（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 相关研究报告： [Table_ReportInfo] 《公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌，中航 中核集团能源公募 REITs 正式申 报》--2025-11-23 《公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，交通 基础设施类 REITs 表现亮眼》-- 2025-11-16 《公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌，中信 建投沈阳国际软件园 REIT 上市》- -2025-11-10 证券分析师： [Table_Author] 徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao @tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110003 [Table 报告摘要_Summary] 一、二级市场：本周公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌 本周公募 REITs 市场 ...

金融工程 证券研究报告 |深度研究报告 2025/12/7 金融工程指数量化系列—— 局部分档止损偏离修复模型 证券分析师: 刘晓锋 分析师登记编号: S1190522090001 证券分析师: 孙弋轩 执业资格证书编码: S1190525080001 P2 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、局部分档止损偏离修复模型 2、二次入场策略 3、后续展望 4、风险提示 1、局部分档止损偏离修复模型 局部分档止损策略： 1、计算单个行业指数相对沪深300收盘价cl，以及cl对应的回撤曲线W。 2、使用迭代法计算cl的有效回撤V，若无法得到V，则直接判定该行业不适合此策略。 5、买入后，当收盘价cl首次高于b0+n*s0时，止损被激活，止损点st0初始化为b0+（n-1）*s0。 6、止损被激活后，若cl不小于前高则平仓；若cl低于止损位置则触发止损。 3、选取V的最大值的80%作为阈值T（T为正数），当W值大于T时，信号值s为1（看多），当W值 为0时，信号值s为0（平仓），当W为其他值时，信号值s等于前值。 4、将每次买入点b0与前高h0之间的空间化为10等分，则每一等分的空间为s ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [51]. Core Insights - Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. aims to enhance content production capabilities and expand IP assets, with a transaction value of approximately $82.7 billion, expected to complete within 12-18 months. This acquisition is anticipated to drive user growth for Netflix and enhance Warner Bros.' content distribution through Netflix's streaming channels [3][5]. - Kuaishou has launched the Keling AI Video O1 model, the world's first unified multimodal video model, which integrates various video generation and editing functionalities, potentially transforming applications in e-commerce, advertising, and film [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of Netflix and Warner Bros.' acquisition and business synergy, as well as the potential benefits for core suppliers like Holovis from Netflix's theme park business [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index and the media index experienced fluctuations, with the media index declining by 3.59% last week [10]. 2. Sub-industry Ratings - The film sector is rated as "Positive" [3]. 3. Key Company Announcements - Notable announcements include G-bits' shareholder return plan, Century Huatong's share buyback, and New Media's cash dividend distribution [38]. 4. Industry News - Significant developments in AI include the release of new video models by Runaway and Mistral AI, and Kuaishou's introduction of the Keling AI Video O1 model [40][41][43].

[Table_Message]2025-12-07 金融工程周报 大类资产与基金周报（20251201-20251205）—— 贵金属上涨，商品基金涨幅录得 1.03% [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 [Table_Title] [Table_Summary] 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 . 证券分析师：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 内容摘要 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 执业资格证书编码：S1190525080001 金 融 工 程 周 报 ◼ 大类资产市场概况：1）权益：本周 A 股市场中上证指数收盘 3902.81，涨跌幅 0.37%， 深证成指、中小板指数、创业板指、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、 北证 50 涨跌幅分别为 1.26%、0.76%、1.86%、1.09%、1.28%、0.94% ...