Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Pop Mart International Group with a price target of HK$302.00, indicating a 17% upside from the current price of HK$258.80 [7]. Core Insights - Pop Mart's IP versatility and operational skills are expected to drive enduring growth, with sales projected to increase from US$3.6 billion in 2025 to US$6 billion in 2027, making it one of the fastest-growing global consumer brands [2][37]. - The market has likely priced in Pop Mart's growth for 2025, but there is potential for long-term scale that remains unaccounted for [3][42]. - The company's earnings estimates have been upgraded, with EPS projections increasing by 6% for 2025, 15% for 2026, and 21% for 2027, reflecting a clearer growth path in North America and Europe [4]. Summary by Sections Market Position and Growth Potential - Pop Mart's exponential growth in North America and Europe has exceeded expectations, driven by strong social media engagement and consumer enthusiasm [2][9]. - The total market for IP products is estimated to be significantly larger than the current figures, with Pop Mart expected to capture a 6-7% share among its peers by 2027 [44][45]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report projects Pop Mart's revenue to rise from US$0.9 billion in 2023 to US$6.0 billion in 2027, indicating a rapid growth trajectory [37]. - The company's net income is expected to reach Rmb7.3 billion, Rmb10.4 billion, and Rmb13.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which is significantly higher than consensus estimates [58]. Competitive Landscape - Pop Mart is more vertically integrated than its peers, owning its IPs and operating a direct-to-consumer model, which enhances its profitability [48]. - The report highlights that Pop Mart's operational model allows for a higher operating profit margin compared to traditional licensing models used by competitors like Disney and Sanrio [48][84]. New Initiatives and Diversification - Pop Mart is expanding into new business areas such as theme parks (Pop Land) and fashion jewelry (POPOP), which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue in the long term [64][70]. - The company plans to leverage its IPs in these new ventures, aiming to create a comprehensive ecosystem that enhances brand visibility and consumer engagement [69][75].

Investment Rating - Maintain HOLD rating for NIO Inc. with a target price of US$4.00, down from the previous target of US$5.00, indicating a potential upside of 13.3% from the current price of US$3.53 [4][9]. Core Views - NIO's management targets breakeven in 4Q25, but the assumptions are viewed as unrealistic due to heavy investments in battery swap and sales channels, which require significantly higher sales volumes to achieve breakeven [1][9]. - The FY25E sales volume forecast has been cut by 30,000 units to 350,000 units, implying a sales volume of 235,000 units in 2H25E, or an average monthly volume of about 40,000 units [2][9]. - NIO is projected to incur a net loss of RMB16.2 billion in FY25E, which is RMB0.2 billion higher than the prior forecast due to the reduction in sales volume [2][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB92,972 million, with a YoY growth of 41.4%, and gross margin expected to be 13.0% [3][11]. - The company is expected to continue facing operating losses, with projected operating profit of RMB(15,561.4) million in FY25E and net profit of RMB(16,241.9) million [3][11]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at RMB(14,042.6) million, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability [3][11]. Earnings Summary - NIO's 1Q25 revenue was 2% lower than prior forecasts, with a gross profit margin of 7.6%, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than projected [9][10]. - The operating loss for 1Q25 was RMB6.4 billion, missing forecasts by RMB1.0 billion, primarily due to higher-than-expected SG&A expenses [9][10]. - Management's assumptions for achieving breakeven in 4Q25 include a sales volume of 150,000-160,000 units and a gross profit margin of 17%, which are considered overly optimistic [9][10]. Share Performance - NIO's market capitalization stands at approximately US$7.93 billion, with a 52-week high of US$7.21 and a low of US$3.14 [4][5]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 12.4% over the past month and 23.3% over the past six months [6][9]. Valuation - The target price revision reflects a lower price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.7x for FY25E revenue estimates, indicating a more conservative valuation approach compared to peers [9][10]. - NIO's profitability is considered worse than that of competitors like Li Auto and Xpeng, which justifies the lower P/S multiple [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Motor Oil (MORr.AT) with a 12-month price target of €25.00, reflecting a potential upside of 6.1% from the current price of €23.56 [1][16]. Core Insights - Motor Oil reported an adjusted EBITDA of €216 million for 1Q25, which is 6% above the consensus estimate of €204 million, driven by strong marketing results, while adjusted net income was €96 million, slightly below the consensus of €99 million [1][17]. - The refining production volumes were strong at 2,695 kt, exceeding expectations, and total sales volumes were 2,920 kt, which was slightly below expectations [2][22]. - The adjusted refining margin for 1Q25 was reported at US$65/ton, slightly above the expected US$60/ton, leading to an adjusted EBITDA of €152 million for the Refining division [2][22]. - The company managed to maintain a total utilization rate of 90% of its refinery's nominal capacity, exceeding the guidance of 65-80% post-fire [2][22]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for 1Q25 was reported at €2,679 million, with operating expenses of €2,463 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA of €216 million [21]. - The company experienced a negative free cash flow (FCF) of -€260 million in 1Q25, attributed to high capital expenditures and operating cash flow challenges [19][23]. - For FY25, Motor Oil revised its capex guidance down to €500 million from €560 million, primarily due to the deferral of spending on renewable projects [15][27]. Future Outlook - The adjusted refining margin is expected to increase to $82/ton in 2Q25, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [14][26]. - The company anticipates receiving approximately €215 million in insurance compensation related to the fire incident, which is expected to support cash flow in the upcoming quarters [15][27]. - Motor Oil's strategic plan includes a multi-pillar decarbonization strategy targeting 2 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, with significant investments planned in renewable power and electric mobility [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Infratil (IFT.NZ) [1][4][15] Core Insights - The FY25 results were softer than expected, with Proportionate EBITDAF declining by 4% compared to Goldman Sachs estimates, leading to a downgrade in FY26 guidance to NZ$1,000-1,050 million, which is 3%-5% lower than previous estimates [1][4] - Infratil plans to monetize NZ$1 billion of assets that are unlikely to scale under the current ownership model, with the capital reinvested in businesses that can provide more meaningful returns [2] - The healthcare portfolio is performing strongly, with RHCNZ and Qscan expecting accelerating EBITDAF growth into FY26 [2] - Longroad Energy is targeting an OpCo run-rate EBITDA of US$370 million by March 2026, driven by contributions from projects that are operational or under construction [2] Financial Performance - FY26-28 EBITDAF estimates have been revised down by 3% to 4% due to CDC deferrals and increased costs for One NZ [4][13] - The 12-month target price is set at NZ$10.70, reflecting a 3% decrease from previous estimates [4][14] - Key financial metrics include projected revenue growth of 22.7% for FY25, with a decline in EPS for FY26 expected at NZ$0.13, compared to a previous estimate of NZ$0.09 [10][11] Investment Thesis - Infratil is positioned to benefit from increased digital consumption and AI adoption, particularly through its investments in digital infrastructure and renewable energy [15] - Despite positive long-term themes, the current market valuation appears to have already factored in these growth prospects, leading to a Neutral rating [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for FIT Hon Teng with a new target price of HK$3.48, reflecting a potential upside of 69.8% from the current price of HK$2.05 [3][17]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng's 1Q25 revenue grew by 14% year-over-year, but net profit declined by 38% year-over-year, primarily due to lower gross profit margin (GPM) and foreign exchange headwinds [1][9]. - The management has lowered the 2025 guidance for smartphone sales by 15% year-over-year and for system products by 5% to 5% year-over-year, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and the impact of US tariffs [1][9]. - Despite near-term challenges, the report remains optimistic about the demand for AI server products, the ramp-up of AirPods production in India, and progress in automotive mergers and acquisitions in 2025 [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25E, revenue is projected at US$5,132 million, reflecting a 15.3% year-over-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach US$225.5 million, a 46.1% increase year-over-year [2][16]. - The report indicates a decrease in earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY25-26E by 10-18% due to the 1Q25 results and revised guidance [1][17]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 20.5% in FY25E, with operating profit margin projected at 7.8% [16][24]. Segment Performance - In 1Q25, smartphone and system product revenues declined by 6% and 4% year-over-year, respectively, while networking, computing, and automotive segments showed strong growth of 46%, 13%, and 89% year-over-year [9][14]. - The management anticipates a revenue decline of 15% year-over-year for smartphone/system products in 2Q25, while networking/mobility is expected to grow by 15% year-over-year [9][14]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.3x for FY25E and 6.3x for FY26E, which is considered attractive compared to industry peers [3][18]. - The report highlights that the new target price of HK$3.48 is based on a P/E of 14.1x for FY25E, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 22.68, compared to the current price of RMB 19.40 [3]. Core Insights - The company is at an inflection point of cyclicality improvement in the domestic engineering machinery sector, with expectations of structural improvement in overseas markets. The company is anticipated to see valuation improvement due to its strong product capabilities and global competitiveness [5][12]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at RMB 78.383 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.90%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders (NPAtS) of RMB 5.975 billion, up 31.98% year-on-year [5][6]. - The operating cash flows reached a record high of RMB 14.814 billion, marking a significant increase of 159.53% year-on-year [5][6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to RMB 0.99 and RMB 1.21, respectively, with a projected EPS of RMB 1.38 for 2027. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is set at 23x, which is above the industry average of 16.83x [5][12]. - The company’s gross profit margin (GPM) for 2024 is reported at 26.43%, with a net profit margin (NPM) of 7.83%, an increase of 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. Operational Performance - The company has maintained high-quality development with improved risk control and operational quality. It ranks first in domestic market share for key products such as excavating machinery and concrete machinery [7]. - The international market has shown strong growth, with overseas revenue reaching RMB 48.513 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.15% [7]. Financial Summary - The balance sheet shows total assets of RMB 152.145 billion for 2024, with owners' equity at RMB 71.953 billion and a net debt ratio of -13.67% [4][8]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to RMB 101.877 billion by 2027, with NPAtS expected to reach RMB 11.671 billion [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price (TP) revised to HK$98.00 from the previous HK$107.00, reflecting a 53% upside potential based on the current price of HK$64.05 [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported 4Q24 revenue at the upper range of guidance, driven by strong Advanced Packaging (AP) growth, although weak margins in both Semiconductor (SEMI) and Surface Mount Technology (SMT) segments led to net income missing estimates. The report emphasizes a positive outlook on structural demand for TCB and other AP tools, particularly in AI applications, despite challenges in mainstream and non-AI sectors [4][10][11]. - The earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been cut by 28% and 16% respectively, reflecting adjustments in revenue and margin expectations due to competitive dynamics in the packaging business [4][7][27]. Revenue and Earnings Forecasts - Revenue projections for the years ending December are as follows: - 2025E: HK$14,934 million - 2026E: HK$17,908 million - 2027E: HK$20,458 million - Reported net profit estimates are: - 2025E: HK$1,286 million - 2026E: HK$1,771 million - 2027E: HK$2,265 million - Core EPS estimates are: - 2025E: HK$3.088 - 2026E: HK$4.253 - 2027E: HK$5.439 [8][31]. Financial Performance - The company reported a flat revenue of HK$3.4 billion in 4Q24, with gross profit margins decreasing to 37.2%, down from 42.3% in 4Q23. The operating profit margin fell significantly to 0.1% [10][20]. - The 4Q24 results showed a net income of HK$4 million, a drastic decline of 94% year-over-year, primarily due to weak demand in automotive and industrial sectors, along with a one-time restructuring cost of HK$95 million [10][20]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The report highlights that AP revenues are expected to exceed 30% of total revenues and contribute over 50% to net income from 2025 onwards, indicating a strong growth trajectory driven by AI demand [4][11]. - The company aims to capture 35-40% of the global TCB market share by 2027, with significant investments planned for R&D in AP tools [10][11]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a valuation multiple of 23x the 2026E EPS to assess the company's value, reflecting a competitive landscape in the mainstream packaging business [7][26]. - Key financial metrics include: - Core P/E for 2025E: 20.7x - EV/EBITDA for 2025E: 14.1x - P/B ratio for 2025E: 1.7x [8][31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Datadog (DDOG US), indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Insights - Datadog's total revenue for 4Q24 was US$737.7 million, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth, which is 3% above Bloomberg consensus forecasts [1]. - The company is entering an investment phase aimed at driving long-term growth, with management planning to increase spending on sales and marketing (S&M) and research and development (R&D) in 2025 [1][5]. - The target price for Datadog is set at US$156.4, up from a previous target of US$154.3, based on a valuation of 16.6x 2025E EV/sales [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, total revenue reached US$2.68 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 26%, and non-GAAP net income increased by 41% to US$653.8 million [1][6]. - Key operating metrics include billings of US$908 million (up 26% YoY), and a net dollar-based retention rate in the high-110s percentage [5][6]. - The company had over 30,000 customers by the end of 2024, with significant growth in large customers contributing to the annual recurring revenue (ARR) [5]. Future Guidance - Management expects 1Q25 revenue to be between US$737-741 million, representing approximately 21% growth YoY, and non-GAAP net income per share to be between US$0.41-0.43 [5]. - For FY25, revenue is projected to be between US$3.175 billion and US$3.195 billion, indicating an 18-19% growth YoY [5][6]. - Operating expenses are expected to grow in the high-20s percentage YoY, which may impact near-term margins but is aimed at supporting long-term growth [1][5]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Vanguard Group Inc (9.2%) and Blackrock Inc. (6.8%) [3]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Datadog is approximately US$48.735 billion, with a 52-week high of US$168.65 and a low of US$104.97 [2][3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of -2.3% and a 6-month performance of 19.0% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Meta, with a target price raised to US$835, reflecting a potential upside of 21.2% from the current price of US$689.18 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - Meta reported solid 4Q24 results, with total revenue increasing by 21% year-over-year to US$48.4 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3%. Net income rose by 49% year-over-year to US$20.8 billion, 18% above consensus, largely due to favorable legal accrual reductions and lower restructuring costs [1][2]. - For FY24, total revenue and net income grew by 22% and 59% year-over-year, reaching US$164.5 billion and US$62.4 billion, respectively. Management anticipates revenue growth of 8-15% year-over-year for 1Q25, with total revenue projected between US$39.5 billion and US$41.8 billion [1][2][11]. - The company is significantly increasing investments in AI, with total expenses expected to grow by 20-25% year-over-year to US$114-119 billion, and capital expenditures projected to rise by 53-66% year-over-year to US$60-65 billion [1][2][11]. Financial Performance - In 4Q24, the Family of Apps ad revenue grew by 21% year-over-year to US$47.3 billion, driven by a 6% increase in ad impressions and a 14% rise in average price per ad, aided by AI optimizations [6][11]. - The annual revenue run-rate for Advantage+ shopping campaigns surpassed US$20 billion in 4Q24, marking a 70% year-over-year increase, with over 4 million advertisers utilizing Meta's generative AI ad creative tools [6][11]. - The report outlines a forecast for FY25E total revenue of US$187.7 billion, with net profit expected to reach US$65.9 billion, reflecting a 2.1% increase from previous estimates [7][8][11]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of US$835 is based on a 32x FY25E P/E ratio, which is a premium to the sector average of 24x, indicating confidence in Meta's long-term growth potential [9][10]. - The report highlights that Meta's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 28.0 in FY24 to 26.4 in FY25, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to peers [11].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of HK$4 25 based on 13x FY25E P/E [1][30] Core View - FIT Hon Teng is identified as the GB200 server winner in the H-share tech space, benefiting from the GB200 server ramp in 2025 [1] - AI server revenue is estimated to reach US$484mn/823mn, accounting for 11%/16% of FIT's earnings in 2025/26E [1] - In the bull case, revenue could reach US$886mn in FY25E [1] - FIT is expected to benefit from GB200 server rack ramp with share gains over the next few years [1] Earnings Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from US$4 531mn in FY22 to US$7 347mn in FY26E, with a YoY growth of 30 8% in FY25E [2][26] - Net profit is expected to increase from US$170 1mn in FY22 to US$384 9mn in FY26E, with a YoY growth of 62 8% in FY25E [2][26] - EPS is projected to rise from US$2 42 cents in FY22 to US$5 42 cents in FY26E [2][26] AI Server Opportunity - FIT is a key component supplier for GB200 NVL72/36, including compute tray connectors/cables, NVLink copper cables, power busbar, liquid cooling components, and GPU sockets [1] - GB200 server revenue is estimated to reach US$422mn/886mn (base/bull) in FY25E [1] - Compute tray connector/cables and NVLink copper cables are expected to deliver US$115mn/291mn in FY25E [1] - Liquid cooling components and GPU sockets are forecasted to generate US$0 6mn/4 6mn in FY25E [1] Latest Developments - FIT is developing CPO solutions and launched the conceptual design of FITConn 800G high-speed connector module for AI connectivity [1] - Hon Hai showcased GB200 NVL72 racks and liquid cooling components at HHTD 2024 [1] - FIT is under qualification for server UQDs and is developing UDQs for use inside the server and on the CDM [19] Valuation - Trading at 9 5x FY25 P/E, valuation remains attractive compared to 42%/63% EPS growth in FY24/25E [1] - Upcoming catalysts include GB200 updates and 3Q24 results in November [1] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from US$4 531mn in FY22 to US$7 347mn in FY26E, with a YoY growth of 30 8% in FY25E [26] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from US$170 1mn in FY22 to US$384 9mn in FY26E, with a YoY growth of 62 8% in FY25E [26] - EPS is projected to rise from US$2 42 cents in FY22 to US$5 42 cents in FY26E [26]