Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In FY25Q4, Alibaba's revenue reached 236.5 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations; adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit were 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%); the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%); the Local Life Group's revenue was 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), slightly below expectations by 1.7%, with adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan (up 28%); the Cainiao Group's revenue was 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), below expectations by 14%, with adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan (up 55%); the Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), exceeding expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%); the Digital Entertainment Group's revenue was 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), with adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5][6] - The CMR performance of Taobao was impressive, with a year-over-year increase of 12% to 71.1 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9%, and the take rate improved year-over-year [6] - The cloud business accelerated growth, with revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations; the capital expenditure for the quarter was 24.6 billion yuan, with a total of 86 billion yuan for FY2025, significantly higher than 32.1 billion yuan in FY2024 [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6%, respectively; Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 7.1%, 9.9%, and 3.5% [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.77 per share, based on a current price of HKD 13.2 [7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in its insulin and animal health businesses, while the weight loss drug UBT251 shows significant potential following its licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk [2][7]. - The overall revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at HKD 145.24 billion, HKD 139.87 billion, and HKD 145.80 billion, with a net profit of HKD 29.07 billion, HKD 25.57 billion, and HKD 27.62 billion respectively [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Antibiotics - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry with a market share of approximately 50% in both penicillin industrial salt and 6-APA [5]. - The antibiotic business is expected to maintain stability due to the overall industry environment and the company's integrated supply chain advantages [5][7]. 2. Weight Loss: UBT251 - UBT251 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with a 15.1% average weight loss in the highest dose group after 12 weeks, surpassing the performance of similar drugs [2]. - The licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk includes an upfront payment of USD 200 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.8 billion, along with tiered royalties based on net sales [2][7]. 3. Insulin - The company has successfully bid for all six procurement groups in the national insulin procurement process, indicating a stable growth outlook for its insulin business [3][7]. 4. Animal Health - The company anticipates launching 19 animal health products starting in 2025, with over 10 products expected to be approved annually from 2026 to 2028, indicating a strong growth trajectory in this segment [4][7]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is valued using a comparable company valuation method, with a target market capitalization of HKD 341.02 billion, reflecting its leadership in the antibiotic sector and growth potential in insulin and animal health [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Modern Dairy [2][9][6] Core Views - The turning point for milk prices is approaching, with expectations for both volume and price increases [3][5][14] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, leading to an industry-leading ability to reduce costs [4][13] - The industry is experiencing a pronounced Matthew effect, with the company gaining market share despite overall declines in milk production [5][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Modern Dairy are as follows: 2025: 14.44 billion yuan, 2026: 15.28 billion yuan, 2027: 16.06 billion yuan [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 310 million yuan in 2025, 750 million yuan in 2026, and 1.1 billion yuan in 2027 [6][15] - The gross margin for the raw milk business is projected to improve to 31.2% in 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][13] Market Dynamics - The raw milk price has stabilized at 3.07 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [3][11] - The cattle herd is decreasing at a rate of approximately 40,000 head per month, contributing to the anticipated rebound in milk prices [12][3] - The company’s raw milk sales reached 2.893 million tons in 2024, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance against industry trends [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Horizon Robotics (09660.HK) [4] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading supplier of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving solutions, benefiting from the expansion of the smart driving solutions market driven by the trend of driving equality [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.644 billion, 5.618 billion, and 8.190 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.9%, 54.2%, and 45.8% [4][18] - The current stock price of 7.48 HKD corresponds to price-to-sales ratios of 25, 16, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Company Overview - Horizon Robotics is a market leader in providing ADAS and high-level autonomous driving solutions, focusing on autonomous driving chips and solutions [4][19] - The company has a stable and concentrated ownership structure, with founder Yu Kai holding 53.92% of the voting rights [21][24] - The company has successfully launched four generations of its Journey series chips, which cover a wide range of driving automation needs [28][29] Market Potential - The global market for smart driving solutions is expected to reach 1,017.2 billion CNY by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.2% from 2023 to 2030 [5][35] - Horizon Robotics holds a 35.9% market share in the Chinese OEM ADAS market as of the first half of 2024, ranking first [5][39] Competitive Advantage - The company is one of the few suppliers that can provide both chips and algorithms, enhancing its competitive edge [6][30] - Horizon Robotics has established a strong customer base and production experience, with its products already integrated into various models from leading automotive manufacturers [6][34] Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 1.552 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 3.644 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.9% [8][18] - The gross margin is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 75.1% in 2025 [8][65] - The company's automotive solutions accounted for 96.99% of total revenue in 2024, highlighting its focus on the automotive sector [46][51]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 10.15, based on a 17x PE for 2025 [1][8][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a significant player in China's nuclear medicine industry, with a diversified portfolio across pharmaceutical technology, biotechnology, nuclear medicine, and cardiovascular precision intervention [1][5]. - The traditional business segments are expected to maintain steady growth, providing a solid foundation for future development [1][5]. - The nuclear medicine segment is anticipated to experience rapid revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by the commercialization of Y90 microspheres and a robust pipeline of differentiated products focused on integrated tumor diagnosis and treatment [2][20]. Summary by Sections Nuclear Medicine - The company has a unique position in the nuclear medicine market with commercialized products and a differentiated pipeline. Revenue from this segment is expected to grow rapidly from 2025 to 2027, with Y90 microspheres projected to peak at over HKD 3 billion in sales [2][20]. - The low penetration rate of Y90 microspheres presents significant growth potential, supported by hospital access, new indications, and potential insurance coverage [2][21]. Pharmaceutical Technology - The pharmaceutical technology segment is projected to achieve a CAGR of approximately 7% from 2025 to 2027, driven by strong demand for exclusive products in respiratory and cardiovascular categories [3][21]. - The segment is expected to remain stable despite short-term fluctuations due to centralized procurement, with new acquisitions and self-research initiatives supporting growth [3][21]. Biotechnology - The biotechnology segment is expected to maintain steady revenue growth, benefiting from a leading market share in taurine and cysteine, with a nearly 50% global market share in taurine as of 2023 [4][21]. - The segment's performance is supported by stable market demand and the company's strong position in the amino acid market [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of HKD 2.12 billion, HKD 2.33 billion, and HKD 2.68 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -14%, +10%, and +15% [6][7]. - Revenue is expected to reach HKD 12.65 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 8.63% year-on-year [7][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Horizon Robotics (09660.HK) [4] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading supplier of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving solutions, benefiting from the expansion of the smart driving solutions market driven by the trend of driving equality [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.644 billion, 5.618 billion, and 8.190 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.9%, 54.2%, and 45.8% [4][18] - The current stock price of 7.48 HKD corresponds to price-to-sales ratios of 25, 16, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue (CNY million): 2023A: 1,552; 2024A: 2,384; 2025E: 3,644; 2026E: 5,618; 2027E: 8,190 [8] - Year-on-Year Growth (%): 2023A: 71.3; 2024A: 53.6; 2025E: 52.9; 2026E: 54.2; 2027E: 45.8 [8] - Net Profit (CNY million): 2023A: -6,739; 2024A: 2,347; 2025E: -1,634; 2026E: -945; 2027E: 75 [8] - Gross Margin (%): 2023A: 70.5; 2024A: 77.3; 2025E: 75.1; 2026E: 71.5; 2027E: 69.1 [8] - Net Margin (%): 2023A: -434.3; 2024A: 98.4; 2025E: -44.8; 2026E: -16.8; 2027E: 0.9 [8] - Return on Equity (ROE) (%): 2023A: -27.3; 2024A: 19.7; 2025E: -15.9; 2026E: -10.1; 2027E: 0.8 [8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): 2023A: -2.5; 2024A: 0.2; 2025E: -0.1; 2026E: -0.1; 2027E: 0.0 [8] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Horizon Robotics holds a dominant position in the Chinese OEM advanced driver assistance solutions market with a market share of 35.9% as of H1 2024 [5][6] - The company is accelerating its growth in the high-level autonomous driving market and aims to increase its market share with the launch of the HSD solution in 2025 [5][6] - The global and Chinese smart driving solutions market is projected to reach 1,017.2 billion and 407 billion CNY by 2030, with a CAGR of 49.2% and 49.4% respectively from 2023 to 2030 [5][6] Product and Technology Overview - The company offers a comprehensive range of products including hardware, algorithms, and solutions, with a focus on soft-hard integration [4][28] - The latest series of chips, the Journey 6 series, provides significant computational power, with the J6P chip offering 560 TOPS [6][28] - Horizon Robotics has developed a full-stack algorithm capability that meets the development requirements for both advanced driver assistance and high-level autonomous driving solutions [33][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report expresses an optimistic outlook for Geely Automobile's performance in Q1 2025, driven by the launch of several key models, which supports a positive sales and operational performance forecast for the entire year [2] - The company's brand structure is considered reasonable and clear, with expectations for continued revenue and net profit growth as the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy is gradually implemented [7] - The report anticipates Geely's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 16.3 billion RMB, 18.2 billion RMB, and 23.7 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.62 RMB, 1.81 RMB, and 2.35 RMB [7] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, Geely's sales reached 704,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 48%, with revenue of 72.5 billion RMB, up 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.67 billion RMB, reflecting a 264% increase year-on-year [7] - The company plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, with a sales target of 2.71 million units, including 1.5 million units from new energy vehicles [7] - The financial projections indicate a significant increase in revenue from 240.2 billion RMB in 2024 to 321.8 billion RMB in 2025, representing a growth rate of 34% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's overall performance in FY25Q4 showed a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit reached 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, both exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%). The international digital commerce group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%) [5] - The cloud intelligence group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%) [6] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In FY25Q4, the company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.8 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 29.8 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [4][5] Segment Performance - Taobao Group: Revenue of 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%) [5] - International Digital Commerce Group: Revenue of 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan [5] - Local Life Group: Revenue of 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan [5] - Cainiao Group: Revenue of 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan [5] - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan [6] - Entertainment Group: Revenue of 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5] Cloud Business Growth - The cloud business showed accelerated growth with a revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), surpassing Bloomberg's expectations. The AI business has seen continuous triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6% respectively. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan for the same period [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in profitability as raw milk supply and demand approach balance, leading to a slowdown in price competition. The ongoing product upgrades, particularly in high-end segments like fresh milk and cheese, are anticipated to positively contribute to overall profitability [3][9]. Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the domestic dairy industry, backed by COFCO Group, and is diversifying its product categories. In 2024, the revenue breakdown is projected to be 82.40% from liquid milk, 5.84% from ice cream, 3.74% from milk powder, 4.87% from cheese, and 3.15% from other dairy products [6][14]. - The liquid milk segment remains the core business, with stable growth, while ice cream and cheese segments are expected to see further revenue increases, with cheese showing a year-on-year growth of 0.45 percentage points [6][26]. Industry Analysis - The raw milk supply and demand are expected to rebalance, with a potential price turning point on the horizon. Since 2018, milk production has increased for six consecutive years, but recent demand pressures have led to a 24.53% decline in average raw milk prices from late 2021 to July 2023. The stabilization of milk prices is anticipated to improve the profitability of dairy companies [7][9]. - The trend towards high-quality and health-oriented products is expected to drive long-term demand growth in the dairy sector. Innovations in product offerings, such as low-temperature short-shelf-life milk and sugar-free yogurt, align with the health-conscious consumer trend [7]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its upstream milk source through investments in farms and strategic partnerships. It currently collaborates with over a thousand farms, ensuring that 100% of its fresh milk comes from large-scale, intensive farms [8]. - The company is also focusing on digital transformation to improve operational efficiency and expand its distribution channels, particularly in rural areas [8][30]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 886.75 million in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 10.09%, while the net profit is expected to be 1.05 billion, down 97.83% year-on-year. The revenue drop is attributed to weak industry demand, but ongoing product innovation and channel expansion are expected to enhance market presence [23][26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.77 per share, based on a current price of HKD 13.2 [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in its insulin and animal health businesses, supported by a strong pipeline of innovative drugs, particularly in the weight loss sector with UBT251 showing promising clinical results [2][4][6][7]. - The overall revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at HKD 145.24 billion, HKD 139.87 billion, and HKD 145.80 billion, with a net profit of HKD 29.07 billion, HKD 25.57 billion, and HKD 27.62 billion respectively [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Antibiotics - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry with a market share of approximately 50% in both penicillin industrial salt and 6-APA [5]. - The antibiotic business is expected to maintain stability due to the overall industry outlook and the company's integrated supply chain advantages [5][7]. 2. Weight Loss: UBT251 - UBT251 has been licensed to Novo Nordisk, with an upfront payment of USD 200 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.8 billion, along with tiered royalties based on net sales [2]. - Clinical trial results for UBT251 show a weight reduction of 15.1% from baseline after 12 weeks, surpassing the performance of similar products [2]. 3. Insulin - The company has successfully bid for all six procurement groups in the national insulin procurement process, with all products selected classified as A-level [3]. - The stable procurement policy is expected to support the growth of the insulin business [3]. 4. Animal Health - The company anticipates launching 19 animal health products starting in 2025, with over 10 products expected to be approved annually from 2026 to 2028 [4]. - The expansion into the pet market is expected to drive accelerated growth in the animal health segment [4]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is valued using a comparable company valuation method, with a target market capitalization of HKD 341.02 billion [6][7]. - The main business is assigned a PE ratio of 6x for 2025, while the innovative drug segment is assigned a PE ratio of 20x [7].