May 20, 2025 06:21 AM GMT 中国医药板块正处于国内政策环境、创新管线的开发验证阶 段和全球化布局的三重拐点。在传统估值框架下，以上利好 因素仍然被低估。我们认为行业可持续的结构性增长和未来 丰富的催化剂会继续推动板块价值重估。建议超配：翰森制 药、中国生物制药、石药集团。 要点 国内政策变得更加友好；相对远离地缘政治风险。自2024年下半年以来，中国医 药行业迎来了一系列支持性政策，包括对创新药的全链条支持、VBP指引的微调以 及商业保险公司更多参与的支付改革。此外，大多数中国制药公司对美国的出口 敞口较低，这使得该行业能够更好地免受多变的地缘政治/美国药品定价动态的影 响。 创新药资产的催化效应将释放产品管线潜在价值⋯⋯ 根据我们的 SOTP 分析，尽 管传统产品组合仍继续拖累许多公司的短期增长，但对股票估值的贡献已经很 小。主要旧药的销售的下滑和触底可被视为相关股票的清算事件，以便投资者重 新审视管线价值和催化剂。 ⋯⋯以及来自全球领军企业的更多外部认可。全球医药市场规模是中国国内市场 的6.6倍。鉴于许多中国制药公司渴望最终成为真正的全球参与者，他们通过将对 外授权、新公司和直接 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Foxconn Industrial Internet is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of Rmb23.80, indicating an upside potential of 24.9% from the current price of Rmb19.06 [9]. Core Insights - The management of Foxconn Industrial Internet remains optimistic about growth in 2025, driven by generative AI, which is expected to significantly boost the company's AI servers and high-speed networking equipment [1][3]. - The company has demonstrated strong growth in cloud computing revenues, which increased by over 50% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with revenues from cloud service providers (CSPs) growing by over 60% year-on-year [3]. - The company is well-positioned to navigate geopolitical tensions due to its global production capabilities and strong management across various operational aspects [3]. Summary by Sections AI Servers Outlook - Management is positive about the AI servers and networking business, expecting continued growth throughout the year. The company has competitive strengths in R&D, automated production, and a comprehensive product offering [3]. - The cloud computing segment's revenue growth is attributed to both AI servers and general servers, with brand customers also showing a growth of over 30% year-on-year [3]. Global Production Sites - The company emphasizes its global production capabilities, which allow it to meet client needs amid geopolitical uncertainties. It has established production sites in the US, including Wisconsin, California, and Texas, capable of producing various AI server models [3]. - The focus on high-value products and automated production in the US enhances yield rates and production efficiency [3]. Switch Business Growth - Management is optimistic about the growth of the switch business, particularly high-speed switches, with revenue growth for 400G and 800G switches projected to be in triple digits for 2024 [4][7]. - The company's 800G switch is already in shipment, contributing to rising revenue, and it serves leading brand customers such as Cisco, Arista, and NVIDIA [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tesla Inc, with a price target of $410.00, while the stock was priced at $349.98 as of May 16, 2025 [7]. Core Insights - Investors currently value Tesla's core automotive business between $50 and $100 per share, but this valuation does not account for the broader potential of the company, similar to how Amazon and Apple were initially undervalued [1]. - The installed base of Tesla vehicles is projected to reach approximately 50 million units by the mid-2030s, with each $100/month of Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) contributing an estimated $80 to $100 per share to Tesla's valuation [2]. - Tesla's energy storage business is highlighted as the fastest-growing and highest-margin hardware segment, valued at $67 per share, excluding potential recurring service revenue from stationary storage infrastructure [3]. - The humanoid robot market, represented by Tesla's Optimus, is seen as having a much larger total addressable market (TAM) than the automotive sector, with significant implications for labor substitution and valuation [4]. - The report emphasizes that Tesla's market cap of $1.1 trillion is largely based on businesses with limited disclosure or those not yet launched, presenting challenges for public investors [5]. Summary by Sections Automotive Business - The core automotive business is valued at $75 per share in the base case, with projections of 4.7 million units sold by 2030 and an EBITDA margin of 16.1% [13]. Energy Business - Tesla Energy is valued at $67 per share, with a projected 20-year revenue CAGR of 25.4% and a gross margin of 26.5% by 2030 [13]. Mobility and Network Services - The mobility and ride-sharing segment is valued at $90 per share, with a fleet of 7.5 million vehicles by 2040 and an EBITDA margin of 29% [13]. - Network Services are projected to contribute $160 per share, with a 65% attach rate at $200 ARPU by 2040 [13]. Overall Valuation - The total valuation in the base case is estimated at $410 per share, with a bull case reaching $800 and a bear case at $200 [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kweichow Moutai is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of Rmb2,017, indicating an upside potential of 27.7% from the current price of Rmb1,578.98 [8][10][19]. Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai's management expressed confidence in achieving a 9% year-on-year sales growth by 2025, supported by a diversified channel strategy and strong brand equity [2][6]. - The company has implemented a "4+6" channel layout to enhance consumer reach, consisting of 4 key direct sales channels and 6 wholesale channels [2][11]. - The product strategy focuses on maintaining pricing stability and a structured product portfolio, with Classic Feitian Moutai as the cornerstone [2][11]. - Long-term strategies include globalization efforts, with early progress noted in Southeast Asia and Japan, and targeting the younger generation through product and technological innovations [6][11]. - Kweichow Moutai has initiated share buybacks exceeding Rmb4 billion, aiming to fulfill its buyback commitment of Rmb3-6 billion soon, with plans for a new round of buybacks in progress [2][6]. Financial Targets and Strategies - The company aims for a sales growth of 9% year-on-year by 2025, supported by a diversified channel strategy and brand equity [2][6]. - The pricing system and product portfolio structure will remain stable, focusing on various product sizes and types, including cultural Moutai spirits and vintage collections [11]. - The management sees a rational spending sentiment emerging in the macro environment, which they believe will benefit leading brands during industry transitions [6][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for iFlytek is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of Rmb55.30, indicating an upside potential of 15.9% from the current price of Rmb47.70 [9]. Core Insights - iFlytek has initiated a diverse AI monetization strategy targeting ToC, ToB, and ToG clients, focusing on API token fees, industry-specific AI solutions, and SOE/government projects [2][3]. - The company launched an "On-Prem LLM All-in-One solution" for enterprises, allowing clients to deploy multiple AI models on a single machine, enhancing operational efficiency [3]. - iFlytek's AI models are being integrated into automotive solutions, with applications in smart cockpits and audio systems, showcasing the company's expansion into the automotive sector [4][6]. Summary by Sections AI Monetization Strategy - iFlytek's AI monetization strategy includes the Spark LLM API token fee, industry solutions in education, healthcare, and automotive, and customized AI model services for SOE/government projects [2]. - The upgraded Spark reasoning model X1 was released in April 2025, with plans for continued in-house development of AI foundation models to optimize performance [2]. Enterprise Solutions - The "On-Prem LLM All-in-One solution" launched in April 2025 supports multiple AI foundation models for enterprise clients, allowing for customized solutions across various industries [3]. - Key features of the solution include Spark Insight for sales conversation analysis, OceanDoc for presentation generation, and Spark Wallex for integrating AI into hotel software applications [3]. Automotive Applications - iFlytek showcased its smart cockpit and smart audio solutions at the Autoshow Shanghai, with AI models adopted by over 16 automotive brands [4][6]. - The AI agents in the smart cockpit can summarize user-generated content and provide tailored recommendations, enhancing the passenger experience [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for iFlytek indicate growth from Rmb23.34 billion in 2024 to Rmb41.02 billion by 2027, with EBITDA expected to rise from Rmb2.53 billion to Rmb6.39 billion in the same period [9]. - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of Rmb0.24 in 2024, increasing to Rmb1.95 by 2027, reflecting strong growth potential [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates NARI Technology as a "Buy" with a 12-month target price of Rmb31.8, implying a 39% upside based on an unchanged 25X 2026E P/E [1][12][15]. Core Insights - NARI Technology is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year (yoy) in 2025E, surpassing its target of 12% yoy growth, supported by a backlog of Rmb50.7 billion and a strong order intake of over 50% yoy in 1Q25 [1][2][15]. - The company anticipates that its Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) revenue will double in 2025E, driven by significant project execution and new contracts [1][4][7]. - NARI Technology is positioned to benefit from China's structural smart grid needs, with a focus on overseas markets and new growth drivers such as AI integration and market-based electricity price reform [1][5][10][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - The company targets Rmb64,500 million in revenue for 2025E, indicating a 12% yoy increase, marking a shift in guidance to a more conservative growth outlook after eight years [2][15]. - The 1Q25 revenue growth was reported at 16% yoy, with power grid automation growing by 25% yoy, primarily due to UHV revenue recognition [1][4]. Segment Performance - **Grid Automation**: Revenue in this segment was Rmb28.5 billion in 2024, with a growth expectation of over 10% yoy in 2025E, driven by UHV revenue [4]. - **Grid Digitalization**: This segment recorded Rmb12.4 billion in revenue in 2024, with a projected growth of close to 10% in 2025E, supported by national policies promoting AI integration and virtual power plants [5]. - **Power Generation**: Revenue reached Rmb12.2 billion in 2024, with a growth expectation of 14% yoy in 2025E, despite a moderation in installation growth [8]. - **Industrial Internet**: The segment faced a decline of 24% yoy in 2024 but is expected to return to growth in 2025E [9]. Overseas Business - NARI Technology's overseas revenue reached Rmb3.28 billion in 2024, a 135% yoy increase, contributing 6% to total revenue, with expectations for continued growth in 2025E [10][15]. Expense Management - The company guided an expense of Rmb7,741 million for 2025E, indicating a 19.6% yoy increase, primarily due to increased R&D investments [11][15]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report maintains earnings forecasts unchanged, with a focus on a stable margin profile supported by necessary investments in R&D and a reclassification of interest income [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd [3] Core Insights - The company is recognized for its self-help story regarding enterprise business growth and overseas expansion, demonstrating efficient synergies across newly acquired assets [2] - The current trading valuation is at 4.4x 12M forward P/B, which is -1 standard deviation compared to its historical average, reflecting market concerns about the NAND cycle amid macro uncertainties [2] - Key catalysts to monitor include major suppliers' utilization rate decisions for the second half of 2025, as continued supply discipline could positively influence pricing trends in the upcoming quarters [2] Financial Overview - The company anticipates its enterprise business (eSSD+RDIMM) revenue to double this year to RMB 2 billion, with a target of RMB 10 billion revenue contribution from this segment by 2027, representing 50% of its estimated revenue for 2025 [5] - Revenue projections for the next few years are as follows: RMB 17,463 million in 2024, RMB 21,830 million in 2025, RMB 29,282 million in 2026, and RMB 34,844 million in 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are projected to increase from RMB 1.22 in 2024 to RMB 5.58 by 2027 [3] Market Dynamics - Positive pricing trends are expected into the second and third quarters of 2025, with inventory levels remaining healthy among smartphone customers [5] - The company is focusing on overseas expansion, with Zilia targeting a 50% year-over-year revenue growth and Lexar aiming for a 30% year-over-year increase [5]

10 May 2025 | 5:55AM HKT China Semis: Maxio (688449.SS): Local memory controller IC, expanding to PCIe 5.0 solution and enterprise market We talked to Maxio (688449.SS, Not Covered) management recently. Maxio is a local memory controller IC supplier, expanding from consumer electronics to enterprise market. Overall, management is positive on company's product migration from PCIe 4.0 to PCIe 5.0 memory controller IC, and expects revenue contribution to start from this year, capturing opportunities from risin ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Underweight" (UW) rating for SMIC with a price target of HK$32.00 for December 2025, reflecting concerns over weak revenue guidance and gross margin pressures [1][11][35]. Core Insights - SMIC's 1Q25 revenues were below expectations, with a 5% shortfall compared to guidance, attributed to yield challenges and a decline in average selling prices (ASP) [7][11]. - The company experienced a 15% quarter-over-quarter growth in shipments, particularly in 12" wafers, driven by customer demand pull-ins and restocking in the automotive sector [1][7]. - The 2Q25 guidance indicates a revenue decline of 4-6% quarter-over-quarter, with management expressing caution regarding demand visibility beyond 3Q [1][11]. - Adjustments to revenue growth estimates for 2025 have been made, reducing the forecast from 16% to 10-11% due to a weaker outlook for the second half of the year [1][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was reported at US$2,247.2 million, with gross margins at 22.5%, exceeding consensus estimates by 170-190 basis points [16][11]. - The adjusted net income for 2025 is revised down to US$705 million from US$788 million, while the revenue estimate is adjusted to US$8,877 million from US$9,284 million [2][24]. Quarterly Forecasts - For 2025, the quarterly forecasts show a decline in revenues for 2Q25 to between US$2,112 million and US$2,157 million, down 4-6% quarter-over-quarter [17][22]. - The gross margin for 2Q25 is expected to be between 18-20%, indicating continued pressure on profitability [17][22]. Valuation Metrics - The price target of HK$32 is based on a price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.5x, reflecting concerns over revenue and gross margin trajectories [11][36]. - The report anticipates that gross margins will remain in the range of 20-22% with return on equity (ROE) staying below 5% in the coming years [1][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shenzhen Inovance Technology is Equal-weight [5] Core Insights - The automation orders in April showed high single-digit year-on-year growth, although some industries like PIMM experienced a year-on-year decline. Conversely, sectors such as battery, machine tool, logistics machinery, packaging, and air conditioners for data centers maintained solid order levels [1] - Management is optimistic about maintaining stable gross profit margins (GPM) for automation in 2025, expecting a contraction of less than 1 percentage point year-on-year in Q1 2025, with no significant adjustments in average selling prices (ASP) year-to-date [2] - The top five clients in the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sector contributed 50-60% of total EV powertrain revenue, with Li Auto leading at 20-30% [3] Summary by Sections Automation Orders - April automation orders showed high single-digit year-on-year growth, with weaker momentum in industries like PIMM, textile, solar, 3C, and air compressors. However, demand remained solid in battery, machine tool, logistics machinery, packaging, and air conditioners for data centers [1] Gross Profit Margin - Management expects the full-year GPM for automation to remain stable compared to a decline of 2 percentage points in 2024, with Q1 2025 showing a contraction of less than 1 percentage point year-on-year [2] Client Contributions - The top five NEV clients accounted for 50-60% of total EV powertrain revenue, with Li Auto contributing 20-30%, followed by GAC and Chery. Foreign auto OEM clients contributed 5-6% in aggregate [3] Product Pipeline - Inovance plans to launch significant humanoid products in the second half of 2025, including motors, screws, and modules, and aims to introduce a collaborative robot (cobot) product for public sale soon [3]